2025 Salary Cap Outlook: Seattle Seahawks

We’re continuing with the fourth installment of our series examining the five worst cap situations in the NFL heading into this offseason. Just six teams are in the red per Over The Cap’s projected effective cap space for 2025, a number that’s been twice as big in recent seasons. One of those teams is the Seattle Seahawks, who will face some tough, financially driven decisions that will shape what the roster looks like in 2025. 

Here’s an in-depth look at what could be ahead, including potential restructures, cuts and maybe even trades on the table. 

Seahawks: -14,887,277

While Seattle is technically in the red for 2025 in Over The Cap’s projections, they have the third-lowest dead money sum of any team and there are plenty of avenues for them to create space by either releasing players or doing restructures/extensions. But their books point to this being a potential fork-in-the-road offseason with big decisions due about what the roster is going to look like in the second year under HC Mike Macdonald and the second with GM John Schneider having full and final say. 

Expect both to have a major hand in putting their fingerprints on the team. 

Offense

The core of Seattle’s offense has been in place for a while now. A few faces have cycled in and out, most notably with QB Geno Smith taking over for QB Russell Wilson in 2022, and there have been players added in the draft but guys like WR Tyler Lockett and WR D.K. Metcalf have helped this offense feel familiar for a long time. 

Sooner or later, though, the NFL brings change. Lockett could be playing out his final days in Seattle unless he’s willing to take a massive, massive pay cut. The veteran, who’s spent his whole career in Seattle, is on pace for his worst season in a while with just 41 catches, 511 yards and two scores so far. He’s due a total of $17 million in 2025, all of which can be saved via release, and $5.3 million of that is in a roster bonus due in early March to force a decision. Cutting Lockett alone is more than enough to put Seattle back in the black. 

There are a few other cap casualty candidates the Seahawks will consider. Starting TE Noah Fant is due $9 million in the final year of his contract and hasn’t scored a touchdown since 2022. Veteran swing tackle George Fant is due $3.8 million and has played just two games this season due to injury, though that amount might be acceptable for a player as experienced as Fant and for a premium position like tackle. 

The harder calls will be what the Seahawks want to do with Smith and Metcalf, both of whom are entering contract years and will almost certainly be angling for extensions. Both men have earned raises. Smith cut the Seahawks a sweetheart deal in 2022, accepting a three-year, $75 million deal that was well below what the middle tier of the quarterback market was at the time. While he hasn’t replicated his gaudy stats from that breakout season, the tape shows someone playing at a similarly high level without the same level of support from the rest of the offense. 

No player has more true dropbacks (non play-action, non screen) than Geno Smith does this season. On such snaps, he is:

4th in completion percentage
1st (!) in on-target rate
5th in success rate
8th in 1D+TD rate

…despite seeing an above average pressure rate of 35.5%

— Benjamin Solak (@benjaminsolak.bsky.social) December 9, 2024 at 2:24 PM

I don’t think Smith is going to give the Seahawks the same kind of discount again. He’s made a few comments this season suggesting he might be taking a different approach to the bargaining table. At 34 years old, this might be his last and best chance to maximize his value, and I would not be surprised if the forced departure of HC Pete Carroll, one of Smith’s biggest advocates, left an impression. 

Schneider traded the equivalent of a third-round pick for QB Sam Howell this offseason to give the team a younger option for the future and perhaps even push Smith. But any competition between the two this past offseason went nowhere as Smith clearly asserted himself as a superior option. The veteran won over the new coaching staff quickly, too. Macdonald has been one of his biggest public advocates dating back to camp and OC Ryan Grubb raved about how much they could put on Smith’s plate. 

All of that matters to a degree, but the thing that will matter most is the dollar sign the Seahawks are willing to put behind their professed love for Smith, and if that dollar sign lines up with what Smith is expecting. The history here looms large, too, as Smith got his job partially because the Seahawks were skittish about investing another huge deal into Wilson. Schneider has had a lot of success thrifting quarterbacks, and Howell represents his next attempt. 

Finishing out the season strong and making the playoffs would go a long way toward securing Smith’s status in Seattle but Smith will be seeking a new deal either way. If the Seahawks miss the playoffs and Smith takes a hardline stance with negotiations, including a holdout, then there’s a chance things could get explosive, though I wouldn’t necessarily call that likely. 

There’s a similar situation brewing with Metcalf who is set to make $18 million in the final year of his deal. He was part of the first wave when the wide receiver market blew up initially in 2022 and contracts have only grown since then. Metcalf’s $24 million average annual salary now ranks 13th at the position. There’s a good chance his next deal will be $30 million annually or more. 

Will the Seahawks be comfortable paying that? He’s gone over 1,000 yards each year since signing that extension and is on pace for a third at the moment. There are very few receivers with his combination of size, speed, strength and tenacity, even if Metcalf can be frustrating sometimes with how he loses his cool or some of the finer details of the position. He just turned 27 this week and should be in the prime of his career for a few more years. 

That said, Metcalf’s game is predicated heavily on his athleticism, so it’s fair to question how he’d fair if that slipped a bit due to age. From a philosophical perspective, some organizations just don’t believe it’s worth paying market rate to a receiver when so many quality players are coming out in the draft each year — and Seattle already has a promising future No. 1 option in 2023 first-round WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Others don’t like paying third contracts to veterans because they believe it’s a bad investment. 

We’ll see where Schneider falls on these topics, though it’s worth noting he forked over a big deal to Metcalf once already. If the Seahawks make the playoffs, it’s more likely there’s a higher emphasis on retaining core players like Metcalf and Smith. If they don’t, however, it opens the door for some bigger changes. If the Seahawks were open to shopping Metcalf in lieu of paying him big bucks, they would have a strong market. 

Defense

This side of the ball is Macdonald’s specialty and he’s already had a massive say in personnel, from the team’s free agency additions to the wholesale midseason pivot at linebacker (trading Jerome Baker, cutting Tyrel Dodson and acquiring Ernest Jones). The results were rough earlier in the season but have been better lately. 

Expect Macdonald to continue putting his stamp on things in the offseason. Seattle has some players with big cap hits on that side of the ball and not all of them will be back in 2025. The status of DL Dre’Mont Jones might be the most tenuous. Jones was a high-profile signing in 2023 as a defensive tackle, but in Macdonald’s scheme, he’s been playing a lot of edge rusher. His numbers are about in line with his career averages, with four sacks and 38 total pressures in 13 games. However, his $16 million 2025 compensation is a significant chunk, and Seattle can save $11.5 million in cap space by releasing him. 

Seahawks DT Leonard Williams is set to count $29 million against the cap with a base salary of $20 million, $17.7 million of which becomes guaranteed on February 15. But Williams has been dominant for big stretches of this season, so if anything the Seahawks might look to extend him — or at least add void years to his deal that runs through 2026 to be able to restructure him. 

Veteran OLB Uchenna Nwosu has unfortunately been limited to just eight games in the past two seasons due to a variety of injuries. He’s owed $14.5 million in cash and the Seahawks would save $8.5 million against the cap by cutting him. He’s another player I think is unlikely to be back, at least at his current number.

Seahawks S Rayshawn Jenkins has been relegated to the third safety role after getting hurt and opening the door for breakout S Coby Bryant, so he feels like another probable cut with a savings of $5.4 million. Robertson-Harris has been a solid addition since arriving via trade but $6.6 million is steep for a backup, so I’d expect the Seahawks to at least explore some kind of pay cut or reworked contract. 

In total, the Seahawks can create $32 million in cap space by cutting Jones, Nwosu, Jenkins and Robertson-Harris, and of that group only Jones is currently a starter. Even if they work out pay cuts to keep certain members of that group, there’s ample room to create cap savings. Combined with the $26 million Seattle can create on the other side of the ball by cutting Lockett and Fant, and the Seahawks should have plenty of flexibility to re-sign players like Ernest Jones and reinforce weak spots like the interior offensive line and secondary in free agency.