Previewing The 2024 QB Carousel

Offseason quarterback roulette has become an annual game of intrigue in the NFL, as teams search for an answer at the game’s most important position. While there’s still plenty of season left to go — and in a lot of ways what happens in the next few months is more important than the 12 weeks of football we’ve already seen — it’s a good time to look ahead at the quarterback landscape this coming offseason. How teams feel about their quarterback position will ultimately dictate just about everything they do this coming offseason. 

This will be a two-part series. In part one, we’ll split the NFL’s 32 starting quarterbacks and a couple of other notables into buckets, ranging from the elite options to bridge quarterbacks keeping the seat warm for someone else. I find it’s a useful exercise to get a sense of the full spectrum of starting options in the NFL. 

Everyone wants an elite quarterback but by definition, there are only ever a few of those at a time playing. It’s not impossible to have success with a lower-regarded option but there’s still a certain bar teams have to clear. This exercise does a good job of illustrating which teams will be highly motivated to be in the market for a new passer in 2024. 

Part two will be a look at who is actually available. Free agency and the draft are the usual avenues to address the position, but in recent years we have entered the era of the blockbuster quarterback trade. That’s opened up new possibilities for teams trying to solve the QB conundrum. 

That’s the second big piece of the puzzle. More than 20 teams could stand to get better at quarterback. But the demand always outweighs the supply. 

Here’s part one: 

Elite/Established

This is where every other team wants to be

There’s not a whole lot to say about this crew. All of these quarterbacks have shown they can play at a high level consistently, with the occasional short-term dip here and there because the NFL is hard — way harder than these guys make it look most of the time. Everyone in this pool makes in the neighborhood of $50 million a year and all of them are worth every penny for the way they elevate the teams around them.

As long as they keep it up and stay healthy, any team with them under center has to feel pretty good about its chances of winning the Super Bowl in any given year. 

Arrow Up

Quarterbacks still on their rookie contract on a promising trajectory

Players in this group have the confidence of their teams but are still sorting out where exactly they fall in the larger pecking order of NFL quarterbacks. The deals they end up signing will tell us a lot about how their teams view them, but so far all of these players have put out tape that should engender plenty of optimism. 

Stroud has been sensational, and there’s a legitimate argument he should already be ahead of Lawrence, who hasn’t quite taken the step forward a lot of people expected this season, at least from a statistical perspective. Still, the Jaguars are leading the AFC South at 8-3 and put some distance between themselves and the Texans with the win in Week 12. Lawrence is playing at a solid level but as a whole, the offense just isn’t clicking like a lot of people expected before the season. There’s time for everyone to figure that out in Jacksonville down the stretch, however. 

I’m interested to see how Stroud and the Texans counterpunch as the NFL starts to gather more of a book on them but he’s putting together one of the best seasons from a rookie quarterback ever. His accuracy looks like a superpower, and he has the poise, mobility, arm strength and know-how to relentlessly attack down the field. The future for him looks bright. 

Tagovailoa is in the middle of another productive season. More importantly, he has not missed any time due to injury. He has one more year on his contract in 2024 under the fifth-year option but I expect Miami to make an extension for him the top priority this offseason, at least based on how things have played out so far. You can argue he’s a system quarterback but Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel has tailored a system that magnifies the things Tagovailoa does well and it’s resulted in one of the league’s most explosive offenses. 

We only saw Richardson for four games, and really less than that considering he played just 67 percent of the snaps in those four games due to injuries in three of them. For a player who needed reps to develop, that’s a real concern. Still, Richardson showcased electric talent in those four games both as a runner and a passer. The AFC South became dangerous at quarterback all of a sudden, and Richardson looked like someone who at their best can keep up with Stroud and Lawrence. 

After a charmed start to his career last year, Purdy continued his statistical tear for the first five games of this season before he and the 49ers hit a little bit of a rut. Defenses finally started capitalizing on the chances at the ball that Purdy was giving them, and all five of his interceptions this season came during the three-game losing streak. He’s since reverted back to his normal, efficient self. Purdy’s long-term ceiling is fair to question but he’s playing well enough for the 49ers to win a lot of games and potentially be Super Bowl contenders, so it’s hard to ask much more. 

Jury Out

Young quarterbacks who haven’t proven they’re the answer, but haven’t proven they’re not the answer either

Most of the time, quarterbacks in this category get some leash due to their lack of experience and what is usually a decently high investment like a first-round pick. Potential is a powerful word when it comes to quarterbacks, and players in this category usually are seen as having a fair amount of that. 

But the exception might be the situation brewing in Chicago. Fields has not definitively established himself as the quarterback of the future, and even if he and the Bears play well enough to get another win or two down the stretch, Chicago could still earn the No. 1 overall pick by virtue of their trade with the Panthers. Instead of judging Fields against the third or fourth-best quarterback in the class, they could be weighing his outlook versus one of the two vaunted prospects expected to be available with the No. 1 or No. 2 selection. 

The allure of snaring an elite prospect while resetting on a new rookie contract could be tempting for the Bears, particularly because they have to make a decision on Fields’ fifth-year option which would guarantee him well over $20 million in 2025. That makes things a little more complicated than last year, when they also got the No. 1 pick and elected to pass on a quarterback, instead trading the pick for a huge haul to build around Fields. Chicago likely needs to see a sizable step forward from Fields down the stretch to go that route again because his first six looked an awful lot like the 2022 version. 

During that stretch, Fields boosted his touchdown percentage and completion percentage from 2022, but his interception rate was also higher. His sack rate improved from 14.7 percent to 12.9 percent but that still ranked second-worst in the NFL. Digging into the advanced stats presents a similar picture:

  • In EPA+CPOE composite (expected points added and completion percentage over expected) Fields is at 0.043 in 2023 vs 0.045 in 2022. 
  • His PFF grade is a little better this year, up to 73.6 from 70.2. 
  • Success rate, explained here, is 38.7 percent in 2023 against 36.7 percent in 2022. 
  • His QBR, a proprietary ESPN stat, is dramatically worse, down to 39.1 compared to 56.3. The lack of explosive rushing plays could be a big reason for that, as QBR accounts for QB rushing. 

What’s also interesting is how backup QB Tyson Bagent, an undrafted rookie, performed in four games instead of Fields. He has just three touchdowns and six interceptions, and there’s no real controversy over who should be starting. But it’s stark how much better his success rate (52 percent) and sack rate (3.4 percent) were than Fields in the same offense.

At the very least, it provides a comparison point for what the Bears are looking to see out of Fields down the stretch. And it’s worth noting Fields has improved all of those numbers in his past two games since returning from injury. He still has an opportunity to chart his own future with his level of play. 

Whether it’s in Chicago or somewhere else, odds are Fields will be starting somewhere in 2024. For the rest of the list, the odds are overwhelming they will be starting for the same teams. Carolina has invested far too much in Young to not give him another season, although a new coaching staff and probably a new front office won’t be tied to Young as much as the former regime. There have been some flashes of “Bama Bryce” but overall Young has looked overwhelmed at the NFL level — with a major “assist” from his supporting cast. Go down the list and it’s all been bad; scheme, play-calling, receivers getting open, pass protection and rushing offense. 

Young hasn’t had much of a chance but he’s also started to develop some bad habits in recent weeks, which is a worst-case scenario for a Panthers organization that had so much hope just a few months ago. That’s why owner Dave Tepper made the decision to fire HC Frank Reich. From the outside, it looks like another knee-jerk call from an infamously impatient owner, but from the perspective of watching this team on a day-to-day basis, it was an inevitable move. The dream team coaching staff proved to be a lemon, and there was little indication it had any answers to turn things around. 

Statistically speaking, the comparisons for other rookie quarterbacks who have had as rough a start to their career as Young are not good. But of the quarterbacks who did go on to have success, nearly all of them were top draft picks who were highly regarded like Young was entering the NFL. Combined with the flashes Young has shown in spots this season, there’s a glimmer of hope for the Panthers to hold onto, even if the outlook overall looks bleak. 

Howell has been given the reins to show his stuff for a full season, and so far it’s fair to say it’s been a rollercoaster ride. The former fifth-rounder has three games with three or more passing touchdowns, but also two with three or more interceptions. He’s fifth in the NFL in passing yards per game but only 27th in adjusted net yards per attempt (which factors in sacks and turnovers). Howell has a big arm and an aggressive mentality, which has led to some real sizzlers scattered through his tape this year. But his big-play hunting has also gotten him in trouble. He’s taken 55 sacks this year which is by far the most of any quarterback. At one point, he was on pace to shatter the NFL record for sacks taken in a season by over 20. 

That pace has since slowed, which illustrates one of the reasons the Commanders have a lot of optimism over Howell’s outlook. He’s shown an ability to improve even if his play overall has been up and down. At 4-8, Washington has too many wins to have a shot at a top prospect without trading up. Howell will count just over $1 million on the cap in 2024, which is a big perk and will help his case for another year to develop further even if new owner Josh Harris shakes up the coaching staff and front office as is widely expected. 

Pickett’s inclusion in this category is less about what he’s done as a player — which isn’t much — and more about the environment around him. So far, the Steelers are doing Steeler things and finding a way to win games, doing so in this case despite mediocre at best production from the offense. Pickett has just 13 touchdown passes in 24 games. 

Philosophically, though, the Steelers aren’t an organization that believes in big, sweeping changes. Even their out-of-character decision to fire OC Matt Canada during the season is about putting Pickett in a better position to have success. The Steelers will probably give Pickett at least another year to take a step forward, perhaps even two or three depending on if the former first-rounder improves and what they decide to do with his fifth-year option in 2025. 

Levis tailed off after throwing four touchdowns in his first start, dipping under 60 percent completion percentage in the following two games with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Since then, the Titans have made an effort to rely more on their running game and Levis has been a little more productive. Barring a dramatic regression, it feels like things are tracking toward the Titans leaning on Levis as the starter in 2024. 

Going forward, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Titans to draft another quarterback with two young options already on the roster in Levis and Malik Willis. If Levis struggles to close the season, I could see Titans HC Mike Vrabel wanting to explore the options with a veteran to provide insurance or give the youngsters more time to develop. Realistically though, the Titans should just roll with the youngsters in 2024 to collect information for 2025 and how they need to address the position in the future. 

So far, Love has flashed big-time playmaking ability while missing a lot of throws and making a lot of mistakes. That’s reflected in Green Bay’s 5-6 record. To be fair to Love, however, this is his rookie year in a lot of ways even though this is his fourth year in the NFL since he’s barely played before this season. The Packers are also incredibly young on offense with a depth chart littered with rookie and second-year players. The unit as a whole is experiencing a lot of growing pains. 

The benefit for Green Bay is that rather than exercising or declining Love’s fifth-year option this past offseason, which either would have guaranteed Love north of $20 million or given him a path to unrestricted free agency, the Packers were able to extend Love on a steep discount. He’ll count $7.7 million against the cap in 2024 and make just $5.5 million in salary. That gives Green Bay tremendous flexibility with the rest of the roster. 

If Love keeps building on his past few games, that kind of salary for a starter is going to be a huge steal. If not, and if the Packers want to bring in competition, Love’s salary is not prohibitive for a backup. 

Right now, Love’s outlook is looking up after putting together two straight good games and leading the Packers to upset wins over the Chargers and Lions. If he can close out the season on this positive of a tear, and not dip back down like he has earlier this season, the conversation around Love will sound a lot different going into the offseason. 

Solid Veterans

Quarterbacks you can have a lot of success with — as long as the team around them is solid

All three of these quarterbacks are leading teams with designs on being in contention in January. It’s also probably fair to say all three are a cut below the elite options, even if they’ve shown they’re capable of high-level play for spurts. They’re at their best when they have good weapons and good protection. When their teams have been able to supply that over the past two seasons, these three quarterbacks have looked great. When they haven’t, they’ve struggled a little bit more. 

While there’s maybe room to upgrade, there’s a lot more room to get worse, which is why teams usually end up sticking with these quarterbacks unless things get messy. Contract negotiations are often the trigger for that, as paying an average quarterback like an elite one is one of the fastest ways to get in trouble as an organization.

Seattle dodged that problem artfully with Smith by signing him to a contract extension this past offseason that could provide a template for middle-class quarterback deals going forward. He’s been a little more inconsistent than he was in his breakout 2022 season but he’s far from the biggest problem Seattle has had to navigate this season. And at $25 million a year, this deal presents a lot more upside for the Seahawks than it does downside. 

Both Goff and Prescott will be negotiating new deals soon, as 2024 is the final year of their current contracts. I doubt the Lions or Cowboys can convince either player to sign a deal anywhere close to Smith’s. The last deal Goff signed was worth $33.5 million per year, while Prescott signed for a cool $40 million per. Goff signed his deal in 2019 and Prescott inked his in 2021. Since then, the quarterback market has continued to rise at an exorbitant rate, one that makes inflation in the real world look tame. 

It’ll be interesting to see how the Lions and Cowboys handle talks. Prescott has significantly more leverage than Goff given his $60 million cap hit in 2024 and no-tag clause, both major inducements for Dallas to do a deal sooner rather than later. An extension would lower Prescott’s cap hit and make building the roster around him easier. Without a deal, there’s nothing standing between Prescott and unrestricted free agency in 2025.

Combined with how well Prescott has been playing, he has the negotiating power to demand a high-end contract. Goff will do well for himself, too, but the difference is Prescott can strong-arm Dallas into a deal they might not do otherwise. Goff doesn’t have that kind of leverage. 

Both organizations have had nothing but good things to say about both quarterbacks and their status as franchise players. Money talks, though. Both Prescott and Goff have shown their level of play is sensitive to the quality of their supporting cast. The more money a team pays them, the less it has to build around them. That’s why ultimately the long-term future of Goff and Prescott beyond 2024 could depend on what they ask for at the bargaining table and whether Detroit and Dallas are willing to pay it or face alternatives. 

It’s worth noting both the Lions and Cowboys have made moves to get cheaper and younger players on the roster behind their veteran starters. Detroit spent a third-round pick on Hendon Hooker and Dallas traded a fourth-round pick to the 49ers for Trey Lance. Both players are developmental prospects at this point in their careers and not necessarily credible alternatives — yet. But at the very least, it should take both teams out of the market for a quarterback in the draft this year unless they absolutely fall in love with a prospect. 

Established But Aging Veterans

Still playing at a pretty high level but age is a real concern

It seems like quarterbacks are playing longer and longer these days, but no one plays forever. All three quarterbacks here are capable of playing at a solid level still — and in the case of Cousins he actually might have been playing the best ball of his career before going down — but all three are older than 35 which creates longevity concerns. Players don’t slowly decline as they age, instead they hit a cliff once their skills deteriorate past a certain point. Injuries can accelerate that, and it’s worth noting both Rodgers and Cousins are down with torn Achilles while Stafford has been banged up again. 

The good news is Achilles tears aren’t as damning for quarterbacks as they can be for other positions, so Cousins and Rodgers should be back in 2024 and starting — even if it’s not clear where Cousins will be. Stafford is under contract in 2024 for the Rams as well and hasn’t given any signs he’s considering retirement. 

But even if Cousins re-signs with the Vikings, all three teams will need to have an eye on the future. It could arrive sooner than they expect. 

Unique

The Kyler Murray category

Murray continues to have the most unique situation of any quarterback in the NFL. He’s played at a high level in the past, not consistently enough to earn the elite or established tag but well enough to earn a contract a tier higher than anyone in the solid tier. There are five more games for Murray to play this season but he’s shown enough in three games that I don’t feel good about putting him in the next category either. Truthfully the future for Murray and the Cardinals remains very much up in the air. 

Right now, the Cardinals would have the No. 2 overall pick. If Murray plays well enough for the Cardinals to win more games and take them out of the top two picks, it becomes a moot point. Murray remains a better option than the third-best quarterback prospect in this particular class and should still be in the prime of his career at just 26 years old. Arizona would then have two first-round picks and additional assets to rebuild the roster around him. 

The rest of the Cardinals’ roster is bad enough, however, that Murray could play reasonably well and the team could still earn a top-two pick. At that point, Arizona has to pick the best of three options:

  1. Take a quarterback, reset on a rookie contract and trade Murray for whatever you can get, which will depend on his tape the rest of the season. His contract is a bit of a complicating factor but given the potential he’s shown, Arizona should be able to get a minimum of a Day 2 pick and potentially a first or more. 
  2. Trade the pick for a haul and use it to build around Murray
  3. Use the pick on an elite non-quarterback prospect

How this situation unfolds will have massive ripple effects for the entire league this coming offseason. 

Contract Anchors

No matter how this bunch is playing — and there’s a range — their contracts limit the options these teams have

There’s not a whole lot this group has in common, except for the fact they’re all on contracts that make it almost impossible for their teams to move on in 2024. That makes it likely all four are starting next year but not necessarily a guarantee. 

Watson’s five-year, $230 million, fully-guaranteed contract has molded quicker than a loaf of ciabatta from Trader Joe’s. There are no escape hatches in the deal, which leaves the Browns with no alternatives if Watson can’t recapture his form from 2020. Multiple injuries to his throwing shoulder didn’t help, but Watson was downright bad for most of this season and looked rusty in his first year back in 2022 as well. There were a couple flashes — a blowout win against the Titans and a perfect second half against the Ravens — that the Browns will cling to for hope and optimism going into 2024. They have no real choice otherwise. 

The Broncos have rebounded from an early season skid and have won five straight to vault back into the playoff picture at 6-5. That has calmed down a lot of the noise around Wilson, along with some respectable counting stats. Wilson has thrown for 20 touchdowns and just four interceptions in 11 starts this year. Last year, he finished the season with only 16 passing scores. He’s also completing 68.3 percent of his pass attempts which would be the second-best mark of his career, though he’s averaging the fewest passing yards per game since his rookie year. 

When the Broncos were 1-5, there was rampant league gossip that Broncos HC Sean Payton would shut Wilson down for the year to avoid his injury guarantees kicking in, preserving the ability for Denver to cut Wilson with a June 1 designation and split his $85 million in dead money over two seasons. The Broncos’ resurgence has understandably quieted that noise down. Wilson is playing well enough for the Broncos to try and retool around this offseason, though given he’s about to turn 35 there are multiple reasons for them to keep an eye on the future. 

Jones is fresh off signing a new contract just this past March that paid him $40 million a year after he supposedly answered the Giants’ questions about him as a long-term starter. Those roared back with a vengeance as all of the issues that led to the Giants declining Jones’ fifth-year option a year ago — turnovers, sacks, durability — reared their head again. Jones missed three games with the second neck injury of his career and then tore his ACL in his first game back from that. He finished with just two touchdown passes in six starts. 

Because of the contract, the Giants are locked into keeping Jones on the roster in 2024, and his injury means no team will be interested in trading for him. It’ll be interesting to see how the Giants handle the position. New York needs to add someone regardless because of the uncertainty Jones’ ACL rehab injects into his potential availability for Week 1. But they’re already dedicating a ton of money to the position, and any draft pick they use on a quarterback takes away from building up the rest of the roster. 

At one point, the Giants looked like contenders for a top-two pick which would have given them a chance at either USC QB Caleb Williams or North Carolina QB Drake Maye. Two straight wins have taken them out of the running unless they decide a trade-up is an option, and the roster isn’t really in a spot where they can give up a lot of picks to move up. Taking Williams or Maye would be easy, but once again the Giants don’t look like they’ll have the luxury of an easy decision at quarterback. 

The Saints bet big on Carr as a free agent because they believed they had a roster capable of contending with a solid veteran quarterback at the helm. Carr has been less than solid, and the Saints have slipped out of first place in the NFC South at 5-6. Even if they bumble their way into an NFC South title, they don’t look like serious factors in the postseason barring a dramatic turnaround. 

And even if the Saints wanted to move on this offseason, they owe Carr $30 million in guaranteed salary for 2024 no matter what. Facing a cap deficit in the neighborhood of $80 million, there’s a strong chance the Saints will need to restructure that amount, which will extend the impact of Carr’s contract on their cap. They could cut him with a June 1 designation but that would give them no cap relief, and it’s doubtful they could find a trade partner unless they were willing to eat a significant amount of his salary. 

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Carr has tended to struggle in years where there have been big changes around him like a new coach or coordinator before settling in with time. So next year should be better if most of the same infrastructure stays in place. If the Saints make the playoffs, they’ll probably run it back in 2024 with a few tweaks but mostly the same coaching staff and front office. If they miss the postseason, bigger changes are possible. 

Reclamations & Dart Throws

Young QBs, either ones who have failed but have the pedigree to talk teams into a second chance or who are getting a chance to show their stuff

Youth is the consistent theme here, which at least gives teams the hope of potential. Barring a plot twist, the likelihood is no one in this category is a long-term starter for a team but stranger things have happened. 

Jones has regressed since a promising rookie season but that regression has also coincided with a severe deterioration in the environment around him. It seems unlikely he has much of a future in New England with how many times he’s been benched but he is still under contract in 2024 with a fifth-year option in 2025 that is doubtful to be exercised. While his ceiling seems limited, it does seem like Jones could have more success with a better supporting cast. His future likely depends heavily on what happens with HC Bill Belichick

The Falcons are going back to Ridder after a temporary reset and he will be the starter for the remainder of the season. If he plays well enough to get the Falcons in the playoffs, he can earn himself a lot of leash for next year. If not, Atlanta will likely be one of the top players in the quarterback market. Ridder’s under contract for two more years but his rookie deal and experience make him well-suited for the backup job. 

Las Vegas turned to O’Connell to finish out the season, as it was clear there was no upside with Garoppolo at the helm. It’s not clear that there’s much more upside with O’Connell but it makes sense to take every opportunity to evaluate the rookie going into 2024. At the very least, the team has a backup option — and this year has shown backup quarterback is a vital position for every team. 

Wilson was just benched and demoted to third string. He’s still under contract in 2024 and his deal is guaranteed. Ordinarily, there would be a little bit of a market for a former No. 2 overall pick but Wilson’s tape has been so bad. He’s on the verge of being out of the league and it would be malpractice for the Jets to have him any higher than third on the depth chart next year, if they keep him on the roster at all. 

Bridge QBs

Competent enough to keep the seat warm for someone else

Guys in this group won’t be confused for top options but they are good enough to keep an offense afloat and competent until a better option comes along. 

Mayfield has exceeded nearly all expectations this year as the Buccaneers are still in the hunt in the NFC South even at 4-7. The former No. 1 overall pick has brought his career back from the brink with 17 touchdowns to just seven interceptions in 2023. As Tampa Bay gets its cap situation back in order after mortgaging the future for a ring with Brady, it would not be surprising to see them bring Mayfield back for another season. 

Tannehill lost his starting job to a rookie after going down with an injury, and he’s not under contract beyond this season. He had only two touchdown passes in six games, so that along with his age (35) and injury history will likely prevent a team from committing too much to him. But a team with a decent supporting cast on offense might talk itself into giving him a shot if its options are limited. 

Garoppolo is under contract for the Raiders but his benching means it’s just a formality he will be cut at some point. He’ll be available for quarterback-needy teams this offseason but his extensive injury history means it’s unlikely any team will want to rely on him as a starter. He had nine interceptions in his six starts, which was near the top of the league. 

The most interesting name on this list might be Dobbs, who is one of the wildest stories of the 2023 season with how well he’s played despite changing teams at the last minute not once, but twice. What could he do if a team committed to him as a starter with a full offseason to learn the system and build chemistry with teammates? Would he be turning the ball over as much as he is now? (10 interceptions and 14 fumbles in 12 games) 

Minshew personifies the bridge quarterback in a lot of ways. He’s not reliable enough to be a starter but he’s capable of putting up some solid numbers if called upon. Teams can do a lot worse than him as a backup and I’d think the Colts would have a lot of interest in keeping him around in 2024. 

Which Teams Will Be Active In The QB Market?

Now that we’ve bucketed the various quarterbacks, the picture of which teams will be active and aggressive in the quarterback market this offseason comes into clearer focus. If we take the elite, arrow-up, and solid categories out of the equation, that’s 14 teams that won’t be in the market for a new starter. Unless things change, I suspect most of the teams in the jury-out category will ride with their young starters in 2024 — with the possible exception of the Bears depending on if they get the No. 1 pick or decide to stick with Fields. 

Teams with the contract anchor QBs are likely stuck in 2024 as well unless they find a compelling option in the draft. The three teams with aging quarterbacks are also candidates to turn to the draft, with the Vikings potentially in the market for a veteran too if they don’t re-sign Cousins. The Cardinals are in their own unique situation. 

That leaves four teams outside of those categories for whom the urgency to add a quarterback should be very high this offseason — the Patriots, Raiders, Falcons and Buccaneers. Depending on how things shake out the rest of the season, we could be adding the Vikings, Bears, Rams, Cardinals and Giants to this list. And there’s always the possibility of a surprise team emerging or a player like Murray, Cousins or Fields displacing someone else.

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