2023 Team Needs: Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots

February 22, 2023

Thanks for checking out our 2023 Team Needs previews. Consider this a primer for what each team will look to accomplish this offseason and the resources they have to work with.

A couple of notes. Cap space projections are from Over The Cap and based on a salary cap of $224.8 million. It’s also using OTC’s effective cap space, which takes into account what teams have to budget to sign their rookies and fill out the offseason 51-man roster.

Compensatory picks are from OTC’s projections, which are historically the most accurate in the industry. Their methodology is outlined here. The comp picks awarded through the NFL’s minority hiring incentive program have also been accounted for.

A note on the draft order: because the Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick for tampering, the slotting for the picks afterward has been impacted. For instance, the Steelers have the first pick in the second round from the Bears which normally would be No. 33 overall. Instead, it’s No. 32. Keep that in mind for every pick after No. 20.

Bills

Projected Cap Space: -$19,531,003

Draft Picks: 6

1st (No. 27)
2nd (No. 59)
3rd (No. 91)
4th (No. 130)
5th (No. 140, from ARI)
6th (No. 205)

Notable Free Agents: LB Tremaine Edmunds, S Jordan Poyer, DT Jordan Phillips, G Rodger Saffold, DE Shaq Lawson, RB Devin Singletary, WR Jamison Crowder, LB A.J. Klein, CB Dane Jackson (RFA), OL Ike Boettger, OT Bobby Hart, OT David Quessenberry, OL Greg Van Roten, WR Cole Beasley, QB Case Keenum, P Sam Martin

Biggest Needs:

1 – Interior OL

One of the reasons the Bills faded as the 2022 season went along, in addition to injuries, was that a few position groups weren’t quite as rock solid as the team or everyone else believed. The offensive line was one of those spots. Bills LT Dion Dawkins had some ups and downs due to injury but eventually settled in with the consistency the team has come to expect. Both guard spots struggled, as did RT Spencer Brown. Buffalo probably wants to give Brown a little more time as a young, developing player but overhauling both guard spots and center should be a priority. The lack of a consistent running game to take the pressure off of QB Josh Allen has been an issue the past few seasons and this is the first step to fixing it.

2 – Safety

Edmunds and Poyer are the team’s two biggest free agents this offseason. Edmunds is 25, Poyer is turning 32 in April. For that reason, the team is expected to prioritize a long-term deal for Edmunds even if it means possibly losing Poyer, which opens up a starting void at safety. Bills S Micah Hyde, who missed all of last season with a neck injury, also is 32 and happens to be entering his contract year in 2023. It’s the optimal time to get younger and cheaper at the position.

3 – Wide receiver

Like offensive line, receiver was a position that didn’t end up being as set as the Bills might have hoped in September. No one in the group of Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Crowder and eventually Beasley emerged as a reliable No. 2 to take attention away from WR Stefon Diggs. Each has something they do well but as a whole the group is limited. The last time the Bills spent significant resources on a receiver was when they traded for Diggs, so they might be due for another stab at improving the supporting cast around Allen.

Dolphins

Projected Cap Space: -$23,554,155

Draft Picks: 5

2nd (No. 51)
3rd (No. 77, from NE)
3rd (No. 84)
6th (No. 178, from CHI)
7th (No. 240)

Notable Free Agents: TE Mike Gesicki, QB Teddy Bridgewater, OLB Melvin Ingram, RB Raheem Mostert, RB Jeff Wilson, CB Nik Needham, OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Elandon Roberts, S Eric Rowe, OT Eric Fisher, OT Brandon Shell, WR Trent Sherfield, RB Myles Gaskin, OT Kendall Lamm, TE Adam Shaheen, P Thomas Morstead

Biggest Needs:

1 – Cornerback

Turning the secondary back into a strength will be one of the Dolphins’ top priorities. The hope is that the shift to a new system with DC Vic Fangio will help, as he’ll put the corners on islands less than the previous blitz-heavy, man-heavy scheme. That could be a good fit for veteran CB Xavien Howard and get him back to playing at a high level. They’re already used to playing without CB Byron Jones, as he missed all of last year with an Achilles injury that just never progressed to a point where he could return. The difference in 2023 will be that they can move on and free up money and a roster spot to replace him.

2 – Offensive tackle

Miami will bring back both starters here with LT Terron Armstead and RT Austin Jackson. However, both players were injured and out of commission for long stretches last season and it was a significant complication for the offense. Armstead has a long injury history and is turning 32. He’s one of the best tackles in football when he’s in the lineup but at this point it might not be fair to expect him to hold up for an entire 17-game season. As for Jackson, he played just two games in 2022. Miami likes his skillset — it’s his fourth year in the league and he doesn’t turn 24 until August — but they’re still waiting for him to put it together. So at a minimum, the Dolphins need better insurance policies behind Armstead and Jackson and could be in the market for a new starter sooner rather than later.

3 – Running back

Most of Miami’s backfield is on an expiring contract. While the Dolphins should be able to bring back both Mostert and Wilson on relatively low cost deals if they want, it won’t keep them out of the market to add to the position this offseason. Mostert and Wilson both have lengthy injury histories, and both are older for running backs. Mostert will be 31 and Wilson is 27. There will be a ton of backs available in both free agency and the draft, so the Dolphins should be able to reinforce their backfield pretty easily ahead of the 2023 season.

Jets

Projected Cap Space: -$4,328,215

Draft Picks: 6

1st (No. 13)
2nd (No. 43)
3rd (No. 74)
4th (No. 112)
5th (No. 145)
6th (No. 179, from HOU)

Notable Free Agents: LB Quincy Williams, C Connor McGovern, DT Sheldon Rankins, DE Bryce Huff (RFA), QB Mike White, OT George Fant, G Nate Herbig, DL Solomon Thomas, LB Kwon Alexander, OL Mike Remmers, QB Joe Flacco, DE Vinny Curry, RB James Robinson (RFA), K Greg Zuerlein, S Lamarcus Joyner

Biggest Needs:

1 – Quarterback

The top storyline in New York this offseason. While other teams will look toward the draft to try and solve this position, the Jets look to be exclusively in the big-game veteran market. Owner Woody Johnson thinks he has a playoff squad on his hands that was just held back by poor quarterback play, so while former No. 2 overall QB Zach Wilson gets a year out of the spotlight to try and salvage his career, the Jets will try to be the latest team to land a proven veteran and win big. However, there are some landmines to avoid. The Jets are far from the only team hunting for a quarterback upgrade and will have to avoid being boxed out from a top option. And even if they land the apple of their eye, last year proved adding a proven veteran quarterback doesn’t automatically equal success.

2 – Tackle

Another issue to be aware of for the Jets is that they have a number of needs all over the roster, not just at quarterback. The biggest is on the offensive line and at tackle specifically. Guard is pretty well handled, with Alijah Vera-Tucker looking like a future high-level player and veteran Laken Tomlinson — although he struggled in his first season in New York. In comparison, tackle is a huge question mark. There are some young prospects in Mekhi Becton and Max Mitchell but there are major injury question marks for both, especially Becton if he can’t get his weight under control. Fant is unlikely to be back and fellow veteran OT Duane Brown might be a cap cut candidate if he doesn’t decide to retire. What makes it tricky is that there’s legitimate upside if Becton and Mitchell can stay healthy. The Jets just have to be prepared in case they don’t.

3 – Safety

A big reason the Jets are so optimistic they’re just a quarterback away from competing is how well their defense played in 2022. However, there’s some work to do on this side of the ball before the season begins. New York has needs on all three levels of the defense, including defensive tackle, linebacker and safety. Of that group, however, safety might be the position with the fewest established players coming back. The early word is Joyner could retire, while the Jets might need to release S Jordan Whitehead just a year after signing him to a big free-agent deal to create enough cap space to add a quarterback. Both players had their struggles, so it’s a position the team might have looked to address even if both were assured of being in the fold.

Patriots

Projected Cap Space: $30,038,228

Draft Picks: 11

1st (No. 14)
2nd (No. 46)
3rd (No. 76, from CAR)
4th (No. 107), from LAR)
4th (No. 117)
4th (No. 135, comp)
6th (No. 184, from LV)
6th (No. 187, from CAR)
6th (No. 192)
6th (No. 210, comp)
7th (No. 258, comp)

Notable Free Agents: WR Jakobi Meyers, OT Isaiah Wynn, S Devin McCourty, CB Jonathan Jones, RB Damien Harris, WR Nelson Agholor, S Jabrill Peppers, LB Raekwon McMillan, CB Myles Bryant (RFA), LB Mack Wilson

Biggest Needs:

1 – Tackle

Maybe things would be different if the Patriots hadn’t flipped sides between Wynn and OT Trent Brown, moving Wynn to the right side and Brown to the left. It was one of several curious decisions the team made on offense last year and both players ended up having poor seasons. Brown remains under contract for one more year while Wynn is likely headed elsewhere in free agency. That’s one starting spot the Patriots will need to fill this year and probably a second down the road, maybe even sooner if the Patriots decide they need the $8 million in savings cutting Brown would provide.

2 – Wide receiver

Meyers is set to be the top wide receiver available in free agency when the new league year starts in mid-March, so unless the Patriots are willing to tie up nearly $20 million in cap space with the franchise tag to keep him, they are going to be facing stiff competition. Even if they bring him back, the Patriots need to add to their receiving corps. Agholor will likely walk and the team will bank on 2022 second-round WR Tyquan Thornton to take his place as a deep threat. Starting WR DeVante Parker could be a cap casualty unless the team thinks he’ll be more productive under a new coaching staff. They should still try to upgrade, however.

3 – Cornerback

The Patriots found a couple of intriguing young cornerbacks in the draft last year in Marcus Jones and Jack Jones, taken in the third and fourth round respectively. But with Jonathan Jones set to be a free agent at the age of 31 and Jalen Mills a potential cap cut, there’s still work to do here. The Patriots have enough money to sign a veteran if they don’t bring back Jones and it would be a surprise if they didn’t use one of their myriad of picks on another corner as well.