2023 Team Needs: Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans

February 21, 2023

Thanks for checking out our 2023 Team Needs previews. Consider this a primer for what each team will look to accomplish this offseason and the resources they have to work with.

A couple of notes. Cap space projections are from Over The Cap and based on a salary cap of $224.8 million. It’s also using OTC’s effective cap space, which takes into account what teams have to budget to sign their rookies and fill out the offseason 51-man roster.

Compensatory picks are from OTC’s projections, which are historically the most accurate in the industry. Their methodology is outlined here. The comp picks awarded through the NFL’s minority hiring incentive program have also been accounted for.

A note on the draft order: because the Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick for tampering, the slotting for the picks afterward has been impacted. For instance, the Steelers have the first pick in the second round from the Bears which normally would be No. 33 overall. Instead, it’s No. 32. Keep that in mind for every pick after No. 20.

Colts

Projected Cap Space: $4,849,021

Draft Picks: 8

1st (No. 4)
2nd (No. 35)
3rd (No. 79, from WAS)
4th (No. 106)
5th (No. 140)
5th (No. 164, from BUF)
7th (No. 223)
7th (No. 238, from TB)

Notable Free Agents: DE Yannick Ngakoue, LB Bobby Okereke, WR Parris Campbell, S Rodney McLeod, OT Dennis Kelly, OT Matt Pryor, DE Tyquan Lewis, P Matt Haack, LB E.J. Speed, K Chase McLaughlin, CB Brandon Facyson

Biggest Needs:

1 – Quarterback

No surprise here. The Colts’ No. 4 pick is likely earmarked to address this need. The only drama is who the Colts will zero in on as their next potential franchise quarterback and whether they’ll need to trade up to get him. They could get in front of the division-rival Texans by trading with the Bears at No. 1. But they could also try and sit tight and bank that Houston won’t take their guy — and that no one else will trade with the Cardinals to snipe them at No. 3.

2 – Cornerback

This is a bit of an underrated need. Indy still has Stephon Gilmore and Kenny Moore under contract, but it might make sense for them to go young as they enter the first year of a rebuild. Some of the beat reporters have intimated Moore might not be back after he was unhappy with his contract last summer. Meanwhile, Gilmore will be going into his age-33 season and I’m sure he’d like to play for a contender, too. Cutting Moore would save $8 million and trading Gilmore would net a pick and nearly $10 million in space.

3 – Interior OL

The Colts’ offensive line was a huge issue in 2022. Some of it was due to talent — for instance Pryor was in over his head at left tackle and third-round OT Bernhard Raimann had to play through his growing pains. The team will stick with Raimann but they could try to improve at right guard from Danny Pinter. But none of the Colts’ supposed anchors on a line that has been among the best in the league played up to their standard in 2022. You’d think for guys like former All-Pro G Quenton Nelson, this past season will be just a blip. But the Colts have to start considering if it’s a sign of decline or injuries mounting for someone like C Ryan Kelly.

Jaguars

Projected Cap Space: -$25,864,914

Draft Picks: 9

1st (No. 24)
2nd (No. 56)
3rd (No. 88)
4th (No. 121, from TB)
4th (No. 127)
6th (No. 185, from NYJ)
6th (No. 202)
6th (No. 208, from PHI)
7th (No. 228, from CAR)

Notable Free Agents: TE Evan Engram, RT Jawaan Taylor, DE Arden Key, WR Marvin Jones, CB Tre Herndon, DL Dawuane Smoot, DT Corey Peters, S Andrew Wingard, TE Chris Manhertz, RB Darrell Henderson, TE Dan Arnold

Biggest Needs:

1 – Cornerback

Jaguars CB Shaquill Griffin is expected to be released for cap savings. While Tyson Campbell looks like an ascending player and veteran CB Darious Williams is a valuable starter in the slot, the team will still need another starter to fill out the lineup. This seems like a good spot for a high draft pick to eventually take over for Williams and team up with Campbell long-term.

2 – Defensive line

In addition to a number of pending free agents at the position, the Jaguars will need to decide if DL Roy Robertson-Harris is worth bringing back or if they need the cap savings cutting or trading him would provide. It’s also worth noting Jaguars DL Foley Fatukasi, who was one of their big free-agent additions last offseason, didn’t have as much of an impact as they might have hoped. They don’t realistically have an out in his deal until next year but they can start thinking ahead and getting younger and cheaper options in the pipeline.

3 – Safety

Another potential cap cut for the Jaguars is S Rayshawn Jenkins as they will need to make some tough decisions with less cap flexibility than in years past. If Jenkins is cut, the Jaguars will need a new starter. If not, they could look to other needs. Although Jacksonville is adding WR Calvin Ridley to their receiving corps, they could use a red zone threat to replace Marvin Jones. And of course if they can’t bring back Engram, tight end becomes a massive need.

Texans

Projected Cap Space: $25,659,836

Draft Picks: 12

1st (No. 2)
1st (No. 12, from CLE)
2nd (No. 33)
3rd (No. 65)
3rd (No. 73, from CLE)
4th (No. 104)
5th (No. 138)
6th (No. 188, from NO)
6th (No. 201, from MIN)
6th (No. 203, from NYG)
6th (No. 207, from SF)
7th (No. 239, from SEA)

Notable Free Agents: S Jonathan Owens, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, DL Rasheem Green, LB Neville Hewitt, TE Jordan Akins, CB Tremon Smith, TE O.J. Howard, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, WR Phillip Dorsett, QB Kyle Allen, CB Tavierre Thomas, RB Rex Burkhead, QB Jeff Driskel

Biggest Needs:

1 – Quarterback

No brainer here. Houston doesn’t have a franchise quarterback but hopes to find one with the No. 2 pick.

2 – Defensive line

Once quarterback is out of the way, the Texans can turn their attention to rebuilding the rest of the team, where there’s a lot of work still to be done. I’m cheating a little and catching two positions in one with the “defensive line” designation, as the Texans need a lot of help at both defensive end and defensive tackle. But this also reflects the philosophy new HC DeMeco Ryans might bring from San Francisco. The 49ers have hammered the defensive line with several first-round picks over the past several years and the Jets have done the same so far under HC Robert Saleh. It would not be a surprise if the Texans made multiple major additions all across their defensive line, as they certainly could use the talent upgrade.

3 – Pass catcher

I’m cheating again. Whether it’s wide receiver or tight end, the Texans will need to build around their young quarterback. They have some young receivers in Nico Collins and John Metchie, but veteran WR Brandin Cooks wants to be traded and the expectation is for Houston to try and accommodate him there. The Texans also need help at tight end, even if they re-sign Akins who played pretty well down the stretch last season. The bottom line is the team desperately needs foundational pieces on offense, not just a quarterback.

Titans

Projected Cap Space: -$25,458,873

Draft Picks: 6

1st (No. 11)
2nd (No. 41)
3rd (No. 72)
5th (No. 149)
6th (No. 186, from ATL)
7th (No. 230)

Notable Free Agents: G Nate Davis, LB David Long, DT Teair Tart (RFA), TE Austin Hooper, TE Geoff Swaim, CB Terrance Mitchell, OT Dennis Daley, WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (RFA), DL Mario Edwards, DL DeMarcus Walker, DL Da’Shawn Hand

Biggest Needs:

1 – Offensive line

There’s a case to be made that the team and position group with the most extreme makeover needed this offseason is the Titans’ offensive line. The entire unit could be redone. Longtime LT Taylor Lewan is expected to be released. Davis is a pending free agent and the Titans might not be able to afford to bring him back given their cap situation. Starting C Ben Jones will be 34 but even if he doesn’t retire, he’s dealt with a number of injuries, to the point where expecting him to make it through a full season might not be realistic. Left guard Chandler Brewer is a backup at best, and third-round RT Nicholas Petit-Frere had a fair amount of growing pains as a rookie. The Titans are still waiting for Dillon Radunz to pan out, as he’s been shuttled between a variety of positions and has yet to play well at any of them. Replacing all five in one offseason might be too tall of a task but there’s a lot of work to do here for Tennessee.

2 – Edge rusher

One of the moves the Titans will likely make to get out of the red is cutting OLB Bud Dupree, who’s been a major disappointment as a free agent signing. Their other starting edge rusher, OLB Harold Landry, will be coming back from a torn ACL suffered during camp this past season, and might not be at full strength right away. So they need someone to pick up the slack until he’s back and then team up with him after to ideally form a formidable pair of bookend rushers.

3 – Wide receiver

I think it’s fair to ask if the Titans would do the A.J. Brown trade again if they knew what they know today. What’s done is done though, and they’ve bet on WR Treylon Burks, who did show some flashes in his rookie season. They need more around him though, even if they want to be a run-heavy offense.