Top Eight Worst-Value Contracts in Free Agency

As much fun as we have discussing free agency successes, steals and values, there’s another side to the coin. Which teams overpaid for questionable talent, potentially bloating their rosters with soon-to-be-unwanted contracts?

It’s an interesting question, as there are a number of factors to consider when evaluating what makes a bad contract. Guaranteed money and dead cap hits in future years, for example, are things that aren’t always discussed when contract details are laid out and as a result, many fans may not be aware of the true cash flow. The differences matter, though, when determining if a signing is a bad short-term move or if it has the potential to be a real ball-and-chain on the books down the line.

Signing players to more money than they’re worth is just par for the course in free agency, but which deals are truly the worst of the bunch? Let’s get into it.

Raiders DT Christian Wilkins

While Wilkins leaving Miami in free agency wasn’t a surprise, the money he received certainly was. The Raiders signed him to a monster four-year, $110 million contract, blowing past almost every defensive tackle deal in APY. Now that Aaron Donald has retired, only Chris Jones has a higher APY at the position than Wilkins. At $27.5 million APY, Wilkins outpaces Justin Madubuike, Quinnen Williams, and Jeffery Simmons by at least $3 million APY.

Wilkins will have a tough time living up to that contract. Through his first four seasons in the league, Wilkins had a total of 11.5 sacks before recording a nine-sack season in 2023. He’s undeniably one of the better interior defenders in the NFL, but the Raiders are paying him like he’s an elite force, a step above almost every other defensive tackle. The numbers don’t bear that out; while sacks aren’t usually the best measure of a player’s impact, Wilkins does lag behind the likes of Quinnen Williams and Dexter Lawrence by most metrics.

Las Vegas would hope the Wilkins contract sets a new negotiating floor for defensive tackles. Certainly, agents will try and use his deal as leverage in the future. This deal may end up aging rather well if future extensions come in above it. More likely, however, it will remain an outlier, and the Raiders will be stuck with an unwieldy contract on their books. Wilkins is too good a player to completely flame out, but he may find it difficult to live up to his contract.

Titans WR Calvin Ridley

One of the major surprises in free agency was Ridley signing with the Titans. The Jaguars and Patriots seemed to be competing with each other for his services, but in the end, the Titans swooped in with a four-year, $92 million offer to bring Ridley to Nashville. With $23 million APY and roughly half his total deal guaranteed, Ridley becomes the league’s 10th-best paid receiver and looks to provide a boost to an anemic Titans passing attack.

Ridley has several red flags that should make Tennessee a bit uneasy, however. Despite this being his first major contract, he’s already 29 years old, as he was an older prospect coming out of college and dealt with a year-long suspension in 2022. Ridley’s best years came when he was a secondary option to Julio Jones in Atlanta, and he’s coming off a questionable year as the Jaguars’ No. 1 receiver, posting middling production and failing to tangibly elevate the offense.

Michael Pittman Jr. signed a three-year extension with the Colts for almost identical money – $23.3 million APY vs. $23 million APY for Ridley – and Pittman has been a more consistently effective player over the last few seasons. Signing Ridley to this deal is a risk for the Titans, and one that could cost them if Ridley has the same issues he did during his year in Jacksonville.

Panthers Gs Robert Hunt & Damien Lewis

The Panthers entered free agency determined to upgrade QB Bryce Young’s protection. To that end, they signed two new starting guards. Hunt comes over from Miami on a gargantuan five-year, $100 million contract, and they signed Lewis to a four-year, $53 million deal as well. Both are easily improvements over the Panthers’ starters in 2023, but at what cost?

Hunt was one of the best guards in the NFL last season, anchoring a Miami offensive line that struggled with injuries. Even so, it’s hard to see his contract as anything but a massive overpay. His $20 million APY matches Quenton Nelson’s, a much more accomplished player, and Hunt has sizeable guarantees and cap hits in future years. Carolina doesn’t have an out on the deal until 2026.

Another factor to consider with Hunt is the scheme he comes from. Miami HC Mike McDaniel runs a variant of the Kyle Shanahan offense, which is notoriously easy on offensive linemen. There’s a history of productive linemen leaving that scheme and struggling elsewhere, Laken Tomlinson is a good example. There’s a chance Hunt will regress outside of Miami, leaving Carolina in a bind.

While Lewis’s contract isn’t as big, he’s arguably overpaid even more than Hunt. At $13.25 million, Lewis has the 11th-highest APY for guards. PFF had him rated as the 37th-best guard in 2023, and Seattle was all too happy to let him walk, as they were looking to upgrade the interior as well.

Middling players locked into big contracts are among the most common free agency pitfalls. For now, at least, it looks like Carolina fell straight into that trap.

Packers RB Josh Jacobs

Jacobs comes over from the Raiders to replace Aaron Jones as the Packers’ lead back. In an age of increasing skepticism surrounding running back value, Green Bay had no qualms about signing Jacobs to a significant four-year, $48 million contract. He’s coming off a down year, with only 805 rushing yards in 2023, though he did win the 2022 rushing title with 1,653 yards.

The Packers gave Jacobs a contract near the top of the market; $12 million APY places him among the most highly paid running backs in the sport. The problem for Green Bay is Jacobs may not be worth that much money. PFF had him rated as only the 50th-best running back in 2023 — he struggled mightily despite the Raiders improving their offensive line play significantly.

By contrast, Jones had a great year. Jones was PFF’s ninth-ranked running back in 2023 and signed a one-year deal with the Vikings for only $7 million. The Packers cut Jones, a more productive and cheaper back, to sign Jacobs to a major deal. The Jacobs contract doesn’t have the crazy numbers and guarantees that teams have gotten into trouble with in the past, but it’s one Green Bay could come to regret quickly.

Texans RB Joe Mixon

Speaking of running backs, let’s talk about the extension Mixon got from the Texans. The longtime starter in Cincinnati, Mixon was traded to Houston and immediately signed a two-year, $19.75 million deal. That $9.875 million APY makes him the 7^th-highest paid running back in the NFL, despite his play steadily declining over the last few seasons, culminating in a 2023 season in which he only averaged 4 YPC. The Texans also guaranteed him $4 million of his $7 million salary next year, making it more painful to move on if he regresses. 

Houston traded a seventh-round pick to get ahead of the market on Mixon, as he was set to be released by the Bengals. By trading for him instead of trying to sign him in free agency, the Texans guaranteed there wouldn’t be other suitors, but they spent a draft pick to sign him to a contract no other team was likely to match.

The silver lining for the Texans is if this proves to be a mistake, the stakes are relatively low — just a seventh and about $7 million they otherwise wouldn’t have been on the hook for. The faulty process deserves to be called out here, however. 

Dolphins LB Jordyn Brooks

Signed to a three-year, $26.25 million contract, Brooks becomes the 11th-highest-paid linebacker and goes to a Miami team looking to bolster its defense. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Brooks isn’t likely to be the guy to provide that boost. Since he was drafted in the first round by the Seahawks, Brooks has struggled mightily, particularly in coverage. PFF rated him the 68th-best linebacker last season, posting a career-low in run defense grade and maintaining his poor coverage production.

Sometimes analysis can be simple. Giving the underperforming linebacker who’s a liability in coverage a top-11 positional contract is probably a bad idea.

49ers DE Yetur Gross-Matos

The 49ers paid Gross-Matos $18 million to come over from the Panthers for two years, supplementing a depleted edge defender rotation in San Francisco. Making Gross-Matos a priority signing was a surprise, given he was PFF’s 60th-graded edge defender and never matched or eclipsed five sacks in a season. He still has all the athletic traits that made him a second-round pick, but the money is certainly an eyebrow-raiser.

I’m not sure why the 49ers felt the need to pay Gross-Matos so much. Who were they competing with? At $9 million APY, Gross-Matos is making more than much more productive edge rushers, such as Samson Ebukam and Arden Key. Taking a flier on Gross-Matos in a scheme better suited to him is a fine move, but this contract seems destined to age poorly.