Which Teams Could Collapse & Which Teams Could Turn It Around In 2024?

The season is more than halfway over but the story of the year is far from written. Not all of the teams doing well right now will sustain their momentum, and not all of the teams struggling will stay in the mud. Just look at some recent history. 

• 2023: The Jaguars were 8-3 before a 1-5 slide knocked them out of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Packers overcame a 3-6 start to get to 9-8 and snatch the No. 7 seed in the NFC, beating the Cowboys in the wildcard round and giving the 49ers all they could handle in the divisional round. 
• 2022: Jacksonville started 2-6 before roaring back and winning the division. They also earned a playoff win with a wild comeback over the Chargers in the wildcard round. Their success came at the expense of the Titans, who dropped seven straight after reaching 7-3 and first place in the AFC South. The Jets also squandered a 6-3 start, finishing 1-7 after their bye. 
• 2021: The Dolphins started 2-7 and rebounded to get to 9-8. The Colts were 1-4 to start the year and 3-5 after Week 8, but ended up at 9-6 with a chance at a playoff spot. They unfortunately collapsed down the stretch, and both teams ended up on the wrong side of playoff tiebreakers but the effort was impressive. The Cardinals were another collapse team, keyed by an injury to QB Kyler Murray. Arizona went from 10-2 to 11-6 and bounced in the wildcard round. 
• 2020: Washington started 2-7 but thanks to a morose NFC East, the rebound to 7-9 was enough to win the division. Arizona started 6-3 punctuated by the “Hail Murray” — the walkoff Haily Mary to WR DeAndre Hopkins to beat the Bills — but finished 8-8. 

Right now, there are thirteen teams with at least six wins and 11 with three or fewer losses. Judging from recent precedent, odds are one of the teams in the first group will flame out down the stretch, while one of the teams in the second puts together an epic comeback. 

Just for fun, let’s try and guess who. 

Faller Candidates

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers remain in first place in the AFC North thanks to a 7-2 start to the season and a come-from-behind win against the Commanders on Sunday. It’s been classic Pittsburgh football, keyed by a suffocating defense, physical run game and quarterback play, whether it’s Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, that does just enough to get more points than the other team. 

Pittsburgh is going to need every single win they’ve picked up so far, though. The Steelers’ schedule stiffens significantly, starting yesterday. They still have all six divisional games against the rest of the AFC North, plus matchups against the Chiefs and Eagles. While the Browns and Bengals both have losing records currently, all bets are off when it comes to division games in the AFC North, which are regularly among the most physical and intense games leaguewide each season. It almost doesn’t matter that the Steelers are in first place in the AFC North right now because their entire season is going to be dictated by the next eight games. 

While the win against the Commanders was impressive, it was by far the best result on the Steelers’ schedule so far. They’ve beat up on teams like the Giants, Raiders and Jets, and have losses to the Colts and Cowboys on their resume. The offense has a clear identity but it’s 19th in scoring and 24th in yards — far from a potent unit. The Steelers will have to continue playing complementary football on defense and special teams, or unlock a new level to the offense with Wilson under center than what we’ve seen so far. 

I would say I’m optimistic overall about the Steelers at least securing a postseason berth. But the schedule gauntlet has to be a factor. 

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota has been one of the most pleasant surpises of the first half of the 2024 season. They thumbed their nose at modest preseason expectations and were one of the final unbeaten teams to start the year, winning their first five straight. After a hiccup with two losses in five days, they’ve started another winning streak and are 7-2 after eking out a 12-7 victory against the Jaguars. 

But some cracks in the Vikings’ armor have begun to show. The hot start to the year was keyed by a career renaissance from QB Sam Darnold, who was a bust before being signed by Minnesota as a bridge starter this offseason. Darnold had 11 touchdown passes in the first four games of the season and entered Week 10 tied for fourth in the NFL in that category. He has six in the past four games, plus six interceptions. Darnold isn’t quite turning back into a pumpkin but he’s been looking a little orange of late. 

The other potential point of concern is actually one of the team’s biggest strengths — the defense led by innovative DC Brian Flores. The former Dolphins head coach has the league buzzing with a cutting edge defensive scheme that confuses even seasoned veteran quarterbacks. It’s been so good that Flores has been an early leader in buzz for the upcoming coaching cycle, despite his ongoing lawsuit against the NFL. 

Flores was beta testing this system last year too but didn’t quite have the personnel in place. What was interesting, however, was how Flores’ system wore down as the year went on. A lot of the success of the scheme is predicated on having no tendencies for opposing offenses to key on, like which down and distances the Vikings like to blitz for instance. They also play “unsound” defenses that subvert the rules of defense offenses have come to expect. With how sharp NFL offenses are, that’s hard to keep up over the course of an 18-game season. 

Minnesota has two more games it should win against the Titans and Bears, though this past week’s game against the Jaguars was a lot closer than it should have been. The last month or so of the season is tough. The Vikings open December back-to-back against the Cardinals and Falcons, then take on the Seahawks, Packers and Lions to end the regular season. In an ideal scenario for Minnesota, those last two games could be for the NFC North division title. But if the cracks keep spreading, those two games might be necessary just to preserve a playoff spot. 

Los Angeles Chargers

The primary pitch for the Chargers hiring HC Jim Harbaugh this offseason was that he was a winner. Stanford, San Francisco, Michigan, you name it. Harbaugh had high-level success at every stop, and he’s off to a quality start with the Chargers. Los Angeles is 6-3 and in a strong position for a wildcard spot in the AFC (can’t project anyone to catch the Chiefs in the AFC West this year). 

I would be concerned about how sustainable the start is, however. The teams the Chargers have beaten have a record of 15-40 so far this season. The teams they’ve lost to are 22-6. All they can do is play who is on their schedule, but things get a lot tougher the rest of the way. The Chargers’ next four games are against the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons and Chiefs — most of whom have winning records. The following contests against the Bucs and Broncos aren’t gimmes either.

The silver lining is the Chargers have a shot at a soft landing with games against the Patriots and Raiders to end the season, which could help them make up ground if needed in the AFC wildcard race. The other silver lining is the competition in the conference isn’t as fierce as it’s been the past few years, so the Chargers don’t have as many teams nipping at their heels. 

Riser Candidates

Miami Dolphins

One of the little quirks of the 2024 season is that the bad teams are really bad. There were eight two-win teams entering Week 10, which is the most in a while. It’s made it hard to zero in on legitimate comeback candidates. For instance, the Jets have a talented roster but are mired in dysfunction after firing HC Robert Saleh during the season. At 3-6 with just seven games left, their margin for error is probably just one more loss — and they have to get through the Bills, Rams and Seahawks. 

However, the fellow AFC East rival Dolphins might check a few more boxes. The absence of QB Tua Tagovailoa was a major contributor to Miami’s early-season struggles but his return has not cured all ills. The Dolphins are 0-2 with Tagovailoa the past two weeks. That said, Miami’s offense is back to running much more like it’s supposed to on paper, and those two losses have been by a combined four points against the Cardinals and Bills. 

Another tough opponent is on deck tonight with the Rams, who are getting healthier as well and looking to pick up steam. But the Dolphins’ remaining schedule includes games against the Patriots, Raiders, Browns and twice against the Jets. If Miami can translate its renewed competence into a 5-0 record against that bunch, that gets them to seven wins. From there, they have to steal one or two against the Rams, Packers, Texans and 49ers. 

That’s a steep task. But also not impossible if the Dolphins play more like the nine-win team they were expected to be before Tagovailoa went down. 

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were supposed to be one of the top teams in the AFC and Super Bowl contenders. Instead, they hobbled out to an 0-3 start and were 1-4 after five weeks. Just a tiny handful of teams have ever recovered from 1-4 to make the playoffs. 

Cincinnati has worked back to 4-6 after taking care of business against the Giants, Browns and Raiders, but were blown out by the Eagles and got swept by the Ravens, albeit in close games. The Bengals are the No. 9 seed in the AFC at the moment, one game behind the No. 7 seed Broncos (5-5) for the final wildcard berth. The Colts (4-6), Jets (3-7) and Chargers (6-3) are the other primary contenders for the last two wildcard spots, assuming the No. 5 seed goes to either Pittsburgh (7-2) or Baltimore (7-3). 

The good news for the Bengals is this is not an overly competitive field. The Jets are barely a factor, the Colts are going the wrong way and Cincinnati has games against both the Broncos and Chargers to try and cut into their lead. Winning those games is obviously of utmost importance for the Bengals, especially because tiebreakers will be relevant. 

There aren’t really “cupcake” games in the NFL but matchups against the Cowboys, Titans and Browns should give the Bengals a chance to pad the win total. They need to get to nine wins and potentially even 10 to have a shot at the playoffs, and winning those three gets them halfway there. Assuming they don’t stumble, that leaves the two games against the Broncos and Chargers and two games against the Steelers that will decide Cincinnati’s fate this year. 

The other bit of good news is that Bengals QB Joe Burrow is healthy, locked in and playing at an extremely high level, enough to overcome injuries to the offense around him. He’ll get some of those players like WR Tee Higgins back, but the other big factor in whether Cincinnati will complete the turnaround is the defense. The Bengals have been porous on that side of the ball this season, with a run defense liable to be gashed right up the middle and a pass rush that’s toothless outside of star DE Trey Hendrickson. This is Bengals DC Lou Anarumo’s sixth season in Cincinnati and the veteran play-caller should be able to patch things up to a degree. 

Ultimately the Bengals have blown through a lot of their margin for error and it could be too big a hole to dig out of when it’s all said and done. But I like the Bengals’ chances for two reasons. This is a team that’s shown it can get hot, and Burrow is playing lights out. Just like last year’s Packers with QB Jordan Love, the Bengals could end up being the team that scrapes into the postseason that no one else wants to play.