2024 NFL Hot Seat Heat Check

As the start of the NFL season is fast approaching, it’s a good time to check the pulse on the 2025 NFL coaching carousel. Every year, some head coaches enter the season on the infamous hot seat — needing a strong season to ward off the pressure and keep their job. Some start the year with a thin margin for error, others end up there by Black Monday. 

This year, there are six coaches firmly on the hot seat entering the season, with a few more worth keeping an eye on. Without a good year, these coaches won’t survive to try again in 2025. Some have very clear objectives to hit, whereas others need to showcase growth or be on a specific trajectory. Not all these coaches will be out of a job come 2025, but given the rate of turnover in the league, many will.

With that in mind, let’s take a heat check on those on the hot seat entering 2024:

Brian Daboll, New York Giants

Even just a year ago, putting Daboll on this list would have seemed insane. His first season in 2022 was a major success — he won Coach of the Year for leading an undermanned Giants squad to a wildcard berth and playoff victory. That team proved to be a house of cards that came crashing down last year, as a combination of injuries and poor play led to a dismal 6-11 season.

Daboll earned enough goodwill from his first year in New York that those results by themselves wouldn’t have landed him on the hot seat. After all, he was dealing with a trove of injuries to key players, including QB Daniel Jones and star TE Darren Waller, and the roster was still being constructed. However, Daboll didn’t handle the adversity created by losing well. He was caught on camera screaming at players and assistants on the sidelines multiple times and began throwing his players under the bus during press conferences.

It’s a tough look for Daboll that has soured his reputation in New York. He needs a strong rebound year to recover and that could be difficult. The Giants’ roster isn’t much better than it was two years ago, if at all. The offensive line projects to be a major weakness at every spot save left tackle, where Andrew Thomas is as sure as they come. Jones is back under center, tied to the team with a contract extension signed post-2022 that aged poorly. The defense has some promising talent but doesn’t necessarily project to be a plus unit. It’ll be tough sledding in the NFC East, too, with the Cowboys and Eagles still sitting at the top.

The irony for Daboll is his performance might not matter too much. Another bad year could be enough for Giants ownership to can this whole regime, Daboll included, regardless of how he carries himself personally. Unless he can recreate 2022’s magic, the Giants are in for a long year. Still, showcasing himself as a stronger, steadier leader this season will help endear him to his bosses. And if he can successfully wipe away the memories of last year’s breakdowns, he’ll have a chance to stick around.

Heat Check: Scalding

Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints

The longtime defensive coordinator under Super Bowl-winning HC Sean Payton, Allen was appointed Payton’s successor after his retirement from the Saints in 2022. Two years into his tenure and Allen might have the hottest seat in all of football. At the time, the hire wasn’t met with much enthusiasm. Allen was viewed as a quality defensive coach, but there were better candidates New Orleans could have pursued, and the Allen hire was seen by many to be a cop-out from ownership — choosing the candidate they were familiar with instead of seeking the best person for the job.

Since Drew Brees retired following the 2020 season, the Saints have zero playoff appearances in three seasons, two of which had Allen at the helm. While the offense has been undermanned at times, the Saints’ defense has remained among the NFL’s best and deepest. Going into the 2023 season, New Orleans signed former Raiders signal-caller Derek Carr to step in under center. In a weak NFC South, they were the clear favorites and expected to make their return to the playoffs.

Instead, the Saints failed to separate themselves from the pack, winning only seven games and missing the playoffs yet again. Despite that, the Saints decided to largely run it back this offseason. Their only major additions were OT Taliese Fuaga, the No. 11 pick of the first round who is expected to switch to left tackle, and CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, a second-round pick buried on the depth chart in a deep New Orleans secondary.

Carr had a bad year, and now RT Ryan Ramcyzk, the Saints’ best offensive linemen, is out for the season. The Falcons and Buccaneers are both improved and it’s a tougher division than it was a year ago while the Saints don’t look to be any better. Allen has his work cut out for him, but with another mediocre season, he’ll have a hard time arguing why he should be retained.

Heat Check: Scalding

Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles

Much like with Daboll, putting Sirianni on a hot seat list last year would have been unthinkable. Sirianni was coming off a Super Bowl appearance, falling just short of the Chiefs in the end, and appeared poised to have the Eagles dominate the NFC for years to come along with budding star QB Jalen Hurts. The Eagles had a seemingly perfect blend of veteran stars and youthful talent across the roster. After the season, both of Sirianni’s coordinators left for head coaching gigs, but optimism was still high in Philadelphia.

Then came the 2023 season. The Eagles started 10-1, including a revenge win over the Chiefs, but they just didn’t look like themselves. Without Jonathan Gannon running the defense, that unit struggled and Sirianni’s decision to demote Sean Desai for Matt Patricia halfway through the year backfired spectacularly. Questions at safety and linebacker proved valid, as those positions were weak points all season long. The cornerbacks gave up big yards almost every week. Without some of the big bodies they’d previously had on the interior, Philly’s run defense regressed. The pass rush was about the only consistent producer for the defense.

On offense, things were arguably even worse. Sirianni, the former offensive coordinator for the Colts, struggled to create consistent, creative offense after Shane Steichen departed. Hurts was still good but took a step back from the MVP candidate he had been the previous year. Despite all the talent Philly had on that side of the ball, getting consistent yardage and scoring touchdowns proved more arduous than it should have been. The Eagles limped down the stretch of the season, going 1-5 the final six weeks of the regular season and closing the year with a first-round playoff exit.

There were rumblings of dysfunction within the Eagles organization as things began going south. Sirianni’s fiery temperament and trash-talking habits have endeared him to the city of Philadelphia, but that schtick might already be starting to wear thin with fans. He fired both coordinators after the season, hiring former Chargers and Cowboys OC Kellen Moore to run the offense and former Dolphins DC Vic Fangio to run the defense. Star C Jason Kelce retired after the season, and now the offensive line has some question marks for the first time in years. Some young pieces were added to the secondary, but rookie DBs are notoriously inconsistent. There are serious cracks in this roster.

Sirianni’s job was already in question after the 2023 season. He survived and has now pinned last year’s struggles on the fired coordinators and replaced them with people he hopes will be more effective. The roster might be worse than it was a season ago, so Sirianni had better hope replacing the coordinators fixes his problems. If it doesn’t, he may not be lucky enough to hire a new set.

Heat Check: Hot

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

After spending over a decade in Green Bay and winning a Super Bowl, McCarthy was fired in 2018 after years of declining team performance. When the Cowboys hired him in 2020, it was seen as a high-floor, low-ceiling move. McCarthy brought experience and a winning pedigree to a constantly underperforming Cowboys roster, but the issues that plagued him at the tail end of his tenure with the Packers were likely to crop up again in Dallas. This initial assessment has largely proven to be true.

In four years with the Cowboys, McCarthy has won six, 12, 12, and 12 games — but only has one playoff win in three appearances. The story of each of the last three seasons has been almost identical: a dominating regular season ends in a disappointing playoff loss. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones declined to extend McCarthy after last season, sending what seems to be a clear message about the stakes in 2024.

For McCarthy to earn a new contract, he needs to change the narrative surrounding his tenure. He needs to win some playoff games and anything short of a run to the NFC Championship game may not be sufficient. But while the Cowboys’ top competitors in the NFC made strides this offseason, Dallas let far more talent walk out the door than they brought in. They’ve subbed in Ezekiel Elliot for Tony Pollard at running back and developmental first-rounder Tyler Guyton for Tyron Smith at left tackle. Otherwise, this is almost the exact same roster Dallas fielded last season.

On top of that, the Cowboys are currently embroiled in tense contract negotiations with two of their stars. Starting QB Dak Prescott is going into the final year of his deal, but Dallas is focused on star WR CeeDee Lamb first, who is currently engaged in a hold-in to force management’s hand. Recent reports suggest a deal is coming along, but training camps are winding down and a contract has yet to be signed.

Make-or-break years are tough regardless of the circumstances, but these contract difficulties won’t make McCarthy’s job any easier. Without a significant postseason run, McCarthy’s time in Dallas will likely come to a close.

Heat Check: Hot

Robert Saleh, New York Jets

Saleh was the hottest head coaching candidate in the 2021 cycle. The Jets won out for his services, coming over from San Francisco where he served as their defensive coordinator. He inherited a mess of an organization. The Jets hadn’t been competitive in years, and they had one of the worst rosters in football. Zach Wilson was drafted at No. 2 overall that year, expected to be the quarterback of their future. Things didn’t work out for him in New York, however.

Three years later Wilson was shipped off to Denver to try and rehabilitate his career. Saleh has done wonders with the defense in New York, turning them into one of the best units in the sport and proving he is still an elite defensive coach. The offense, however, is something he hasn’t been able to turn around. Last offseason, the Jets tried to fix their offensive woes by trading for longtime Packers star and former four-time NFL MVP QB Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately, Rodgers tore his Achilles on the fourth snap of the season, and it was back to more of the same for the Jets offense: bad quarterback and offensive line play holding the rest of the team back.

Heading into 2024, Saleh was retained at least in part to maintain continuity with a contending roster. Rodgers is back healthy, and the organization believes they are true Super Bowl contenders with him under center. It’s clearly not the time to make a coaching change, but Saleh’s long-term future is in question. His fate is likely tied to Rodgers — it’s unlikely Jets brass would fire Saleh if Rodgers returns yet again in 2025, and a successful playoff season this year probably entrenches Saleh for a few more years beyond that. However, a rough season in 2024 followed by a Rodgers retirement would likely spell doom for Saleh in New York.

A revamped offensive line should offer Rodgers better protection, and this defense is still elite. All the tools are there for Saleh to take this team on a run, health permitting. At this point, it’s up to him. He’s built this staff and this team, it’s time he leads them somewhere. If he can’t do that, the Jets will look in a different direction.

Heat Check: Warm

Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

The Bears made the somewhat surprising move to retain Eberflus this offseason, despite undergoing a major organizational shift. Hired in 2022, Eberflus earned the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, before a much stronger seven-win 2023 season despite dealing with an injury to his starting quarterback. Chicago was able to flip the No. 1 overall pick in 2023 for a massive haul that included WR D.J. Moore and the pick that would become the 2024 No. 1 pick. Caleb Williams, one of the most heralded quarterbacks to enter the league in some time, is now a Bear, and Eberflus is the coach tasked with helping him succeed.

Typically, when teams draft potential franchise quarterbacks, they want to hire a new coach to pair with them. It’s especially rare to see them retain a coach with a poor record, but Eberflus has been given a chance to win with Williams. This puts both Chicago and Eberflus in an awkward position, however. He needs to win now to keep his job, and the Bears risk wasting a year of their young quarterback’s development if Eberflus isn’t the guy. Having a hot seat coach stick around into the first year of a new franchise quarterback rarely works out.

That said, Eberflus has done a good job of building out his staff, and GM Ryan Poles has built a strong roster. Shane Waldron comes over from Seattle to be the new OC, and he has a strong track record of working with quarterbacks. Williams has an all-star cast of receivers to throw to, and this young defense took strides under Eberflus’s leadership last season.

Although Eberflus doesn’t have much room for error, Chicago’s upper management is sticking by him for now. The Bears should be competitive this year, though just how competitive will depend on how good Williams is right away. If things are trending in the right direction after this season, he has a chance to shepherd one of the most exciting young cores in the NFL and stick as their coach for years to come.

Heat Check: Warm