Matt Judon Trade Grades For Falcons & Patriots

The Patriots finally put an end to the conflict that has been simmering all offseason between the team and veteran OLB Matt Judon, trading him to the Falcons instead of signing him to the new deal he had been pursuing. In return, the Patriots received Atlanta’s 2025 third-round pick. 

Even though Judon was reportedly getting some trade interest, the trade still came as a slight surprise. Teams can be hesitant to acquire players who are unhappy with their current contract, and the ongoing holdout of Jets DE Haason Reddick serves as a prominent example of what the worst-case scenario can be. 

That didn’t stop the Falcons from forking over a Day 2 pick for a 32-year-old pass rusher coming off just a four-game season due to a torn biceps. They had stiff competition to land Judon, too, as his market far exceeded what you might expect given the circumstances. In the end, Atlanta landed a much-needed boost to their pass rush, and Judon gets to keep his trademark red sleeves. 

Ultimately, there are a lot of reasons to think this deal could prove to be a win for everyone involved — albeit with one major caveat. 

Patriots grade: A

While it’s never fun when a team trades away one of its best players, this ultimately was the right call for the Patriots long-term. They were one of the worst teams in football last year and the outlook is not that much rosier in 2024. New HC Jerod Mayo has a long road ahead to try and build New England back into a contender, and lead personnel executive Eliot Wolf needs to restock a roster that’s seen its talent wither away over the past few years. 

At 32 years old, Judon just doesn’t fit as neatly into the team’s window as most of the other players on the roster. The Patriots have handed out a ton of money on home-grown extensions this offseason. While Judon is a better player than arguably anyone the team has re-signed, he’s also older. 

It’s not clear what exactly Judon was looking for on an adjusted contract but elite pass rushers aren’t cheap. It would have been a significant investment for the Patriots to extend Judon and arguably not a wise one. Flipping him for a third-round pick instead — higher than any potential compensatory pick they’d be eligible to receive had they played things out this year and let Judon walk in 2025 — is a significant return that should help the Patriots rebuild in the future. 

It doesn’t make the move less painful in the present. It’s a big blow to the Patriots’ pass rush and weakens a defense that already was going to have its work cut out trying to carry the team while the offense finds its sea legs. Judon loved being in New England and was more than willing to stay even though he was angling for a new deal. In an offseason where multiple high-profile players have spurned the Patriots for other teams, Judon’s affinity for the Patriots is notable. But from a long-term roster management perspective, this was an obvious move to make for New England. 

Falcons grade: B+

Trading for Judon is a major swing for the Falcons to address their single biggest remaining need. Their pass rush was a concern even before losing third-round DE Bralen Trice to a torn ACL with a mishmash of Zach Harrison, Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie and James Smith-Williams set to make up the edge rushing group. Judon is a massive, massive upgrade. 

I’ve had Judon as a Top 100 player in each of the past two years, including after last year when he only played four games because he was such a game-wrecking force in the games he did play. Judon had four sacks, five tackles for loss, nine quarterback hits and a safety before tearing his biceps. In the two years before that after signing with the Patriots, Judon notched 28 sacks. He gives the Falcons the bonafide pass rusher they’ve been missing and makes them much more credible as contenders. 

Falcons GM Terry Fontenot infamously passed on landing the top edge rusher in the draft with the No. 8 pick to take QB Michael Penix Jr. instead. Part of the calculus was that it would be easier to find other ways to address the team’s need at pass rusher than to find an heir at quarterback. Fontenot may not have known Judon would be available but he should get some credit for being patient and making an impact addition. 

That said, there are some risks with this deal. Judon will be dropping into a scheme he doesn’t have familiarity with and one that’s different from the defenses he’s had a ton of success with in Baltimore and New England. He’s a veteran and should be able to figure things out but it’s worth noting there will be a transition, especially coming in midway through the preseason. 

Judon had missed just four games in his career prior to last season, so his track record of durability is strong. There also aren’t long-term implications with a torn biceps in the same way as say, a torn ACL. However, the risk of breaking down due to injuries is just a fact of life for most older players in the NFL, and at 32 Judon qualifies as a member of the at-risk population.

A third-round pick was also a steep price to pay for Judon, even though that’s what the trade market said his value was. Atlanta had to beat out multiple teams to land Judon, including the Bears who also put their third-round pick on the table. New England chose Atlanta’s offer in the end, which is an interesting wrinkle. 

The reason there was such a strong market for Judon is probably his salary. Judon is owed a $6.5 million base salary this coming season with an additional $1 million in per-game roster bonuses available. That sum would be a massive steal for a player of his caliber. 

Of course, that’s a double-edged sword. The whole reason Judon was available was because he was unhappy with his current contract and wanted what he felt was a well-deserved raise. The current word is that a new contract was not part of the trade for Judon. The two sides have been in communication, so the assumption seems to be the veteran will play for his current scheduled compensation

There’s a saying about what assuming does, however, and the Jets and Reddick are prime examples of that right now. Should Judon’s contract turn into an issue for the Falcons like it was for the Patriots, this trade becomes far worse for Atlanta.

It should be noted, too, that Judon initially said he wasn’t going to make the same fuss about his contract that he did last year, holding in until former HC Bill Belichick moved money up from the last year of his contract. Then Judon changed his mind and was conspicuously not participating during the Patriots’ first padded practice of camp. He eventually was sent off the field after several animated discussions with Mayo, Wolf and other top team brass, in full view of reporters. 

The Falcons are inheriting that volatility, and this could blow up in their faces. But the other side of that volatility is Judon is the kind of player who can blow up in a good way. Atlanta’s defense was sorely missing a game-wrecking player, and they might not be done with other reports that they’re zeroing in on signing S Justin Simmons to fortify their other need in the secondary. All of a sudden, the Falcons might have enough firepower on defense to complement an offense that is receiving a lot of hype.