NFLTR Review: How Week 15 May Have Changed The NFL Forever

Merry Christmas! It may be the holidays but things never stop changing around the NFL, and Week 15 was proof of that. A number of things happened that could have impacts for years to come on the NFL landscape.

This issue of NFLTR Review gives you the latest on a number of topics, including:

• The seismic changes from the Jets-Jaguars flip-flop
• Why the Bears and Panthers may feel differently about their QBs this week
• Why Trevor Lawrence might not be the only franchise quarterback in the draft this year

The Big Picture: Ripple Effect From Week 15

Last week we took a look at the potential quarterback carousel in 2021 and at the playoff picture three weeks out. Let me tell you, it did not age well…

Wrote this Friday. Boy did it not age well. pic.twitter.com/Bbmz0kwFX6

— Logan Ulrich (@loganulrich) December 21, 2020

Things change quickly in the NFL but this weekend stood out in terms of how much the NFL landscape shifted in ways that could reverberate years into the future. In addition to not seeing the Jets win coming, there were a number of other topics we looked at in last week’s NFLTR Review that need to be revisited after this past week. So here’s an update that hopefully lasts longer than 72 hours. 

Jaguars Take Pole Position For No. 1 Pick

To give you a sense of just how shocking New York’s upset of the Rams was, they’re the first team since 1995 to win as 17.5 point underdogs. The relief the players and coaches feel at avoiding the stain of 0-16 is likely matched by the disappointment from the fanbase, however. This win has potentially dramatic long-term consequences for the Jets, as it drops them to the No. 2 pick behind the Jaguars. For fans looking forward to Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence as a reward for an abjectly awful season, this is a big blow. 

For the Jaguars, however, it’s a potentially dramatic change in fortunes. Jacksonville appeared likely to take a quarterback at No. 2, but now the Jaguars could have the rights to a truly generational-level prospect in Lawrence instead of the second-best in the class — assuming they don’t win another game.

They’ll be underdogs the next two weeks against the Bears and Colts, so it looks good for the Jaguars. But as the Jets proved this past week, anything can happen. 

Jets Might Not Trade Darnold?

With how bad the Jets have been this year, it seemed all but certain Lawrence would land in New York. And even though the Jets traded up to take Sam Darnold No. 3 overall out of USC just a couple of years ago in 2018, the arrival of Lawrence would have surely pushed him out. Not only is Lawrence that highly-regarded, but Darnold has struggled to make much of an impact in his first three seasons. 

Now though, the math is different. Darnold compared to Ohio State QB Justin Fields or BYU QB Zach Wilson is less of a slam dunk than compared to Lawrence. Both are talented quarterbacks in their own right but neither are seen as elite, can’t-miss talents like Lawrence, who really is a generational prospect.

Anything can happen in the NFL and Lawrence isn’t guaranteed to have a better career than either Fields or Wilson. But ditching Darnold, who has had a legitimately terrible situation around him for the duration of his young career, for either of these quarterbacks would be a much larger leap of faith. Darnold is still held in high regard in NFL circles, including presumably still by the Jets. There’s a sense of optimism Darnold could thrive once freed from the grips of HC Adam Gase like many before him.

However, the history of quarterbacks who have produced at Darnold’s level for their first three years isn’t strong. Even though a new quarterback would deal with the same flawed supporting cast, the Jets still could reach the conclusion that Darnold won’t be the franchise starter they’ve been seeking, at least in New York. It’s just far less of a guarantee when the Jets were looking at replacing Darnold with Lawrence. 

Wentz Takes Another Step Out Of Philadelphia

For Eagles QB Carson Wentz, the best-case scenario after being sent to the bench was that the Eagles would continue to struggle on offense. It would have led credence to the belief that the supporting cast and HC Doug Pederson were bigger issues with the offense than Wentz’s own poor play. 

That has not happened. Not only did second-round QB Jalen Hurts lead the Eagles to an upset of the then-NFC leading Saints last week, he did just about everything in his power to get a win against the Cardinals this past week. He accounted for over 400 yards of total offense between his arm and his legs. While the problems on offense haven’t all gone away, Hurts is running the show a lot more efficiently and effectively than Wentz was able to. 

To add an extra layer to the situation, a report came out before Philadelphia’s game on Sunday that Wentz would not accept being the backup behind Hurts next year. That sets up an either-or situation for the Eagles at quarterback going into 2021, and Hurts’ strong play will make it hard to go back to Wentz if it continues the final two weeks, especially if the Eagles can get into the postseason. 

Bears & Trubisky Aren’t Dead Yet

As the Bears stumbled their way through a six-game losing streak punctuated by awful quarterback play, it was hard to see a way back for the cast of main characters in Chicago, including GM Ryan Pace, HC Matt Nagy and QB Mitchell Trubisky. But the Bears have corrected course in recent weeks and kept their playoff hopes alive in an NFC North knockout bout with the Vikings this past week. 

With two weeks to go, the Bears now sit at 7-7 as winners of two straight. The offense has equaled or exceeded its previous season-high of 30 points each of the past three weeks as Trubisky has shown unexpected competence. And all of a sudden, the idea of all three being back for another year in Chicago doesn’t seem as far-fetched as it did even last week. 

The Bears will finish the year with games against the Jaguars and Packers, so we could flip flop back to where we were before in a lot of ways if Jacksonville pulls off a win. But sneaking into the final wildcard spot in the playoffs also isn’t out of the question for the Bears, and that would save a lot of jobs until 2021 at least.

Pace, Nagy and Trubisky aren’t safe yet. But they’ve given themselves a fighting chance at least with their win over Minnesota on Sunday.  

Panthers Owner Tips Their Hand?

Last week, we listed the Panthers in the wildcard section regarding the quarterback position. Teddy Bridgewater has had some flashes and Carolina’s offense has been productive. But Bridgewater has largely looked like a game manager-level talent, especially at the end of the games. Carolina’s pick has crept higher and higher as the losses have mounted and if the Panthers finish with a top-five pick it would absolutely put either Fields or Wilson in striking distance. 

Bridgewater has played well enough that had the ball bounced differently in a few games and the Panthers won a few more times, the team would have content with him in 2021. But a high pick provides a chance to upgrade and the team has to evaluate its options. Panthers owner David Tepper seemed to strongly suggest which way the team will fall on its decision with some comments this week, however, saying, “unless you have that guy — for sure — that gets you to playoffs and Super Bowls, you have to keep re-evaluating that.”

After last week, I have to provide the caveat that there are two games and more than four months until the draft. But if we take the straight-shooting Tepper at his word, quarterback is very much on the table for the Panthers in this upcoming draft. 

This Week In Football

• The Panthers fired GM Marty Hurney on Monday. Hurney’s contract was set to expire in June of 2021 following the draft, so while the timing is slightly early, it’s not like Hurney was a long-term option in Carolina. The team will move further into its next era under Tepper and HC Matt Rhule, while there’s a good chance Hurney lands on his feet in Washington. 
• Sunday’s previously mentioned report that Eagles QB Carson Wentz wouldn’t accept being a backup behind Jalen Hurts in 2021 caused a lot of people to criticize Wentz under the assumption he or his agent leaked it. However, ESPN’s Adam Schefter later clarified that while nothing in his report was false, none of it came from Wentz or his agent. 
• Washington QB Dwayne Haskins was already on thin ice for 2021 judging by the tenor of most of the beat reporters surrounding the team. But an injury to Alex Smith offered Haskins another chance to show he could be a part of the long-term picture in Washington after being demoted to third string earlier this season. How he responded — going to a venue with strippers and being photographed not wearing a mask — showed he still doesn’t have the maturity or awareness he needs to be Washington’s franchise starter. Somehow he’s still practicing this week and still has a chance to play but he’s clearly hanging on by a thread in Washington. 
• Injuries have beset the 49ers all year and they had the team down to just one quarterback. San Francisco had to sign a player off another team’s practice squad and the choice they made was Buccaneers QB Josh Rosen. The former first-round pick selected Tampa Bay and declined multiple offers as he sought some stability that’s been lacking his first three seasons. But the 49ers offer a similar chance to rebuild his stock and earn another chance to start, even if it’s not this season. 
• The cycle for coach and general manager hirings will start to heat up soon, and we have a nifty 2021 NFL Head Coach & GM Tracker for you to keep tabs on all of the action once things really get hot and heavy. This past week, the Jaguars officially conducted general manager interviews with ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, former Texans GM Rick Smith and internal executive Trent Baalke. The job was already seen as one of the more attractive general manager openings and the potential addition of Lawrence just adds to that. 
• The Lions officially announced they’ve concluded interviews with candidates they’ve previously been linked to, including Smith, former Chiefs GM Scott Pioli and former Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff. The team is expected to move into its next wave of candidates that currently work for other teams, with Rams college scouting director Brad Holmes on the docket. 
• The Texans are working their way through the experienced coach portion of their candidate list, interviewing former Colts and Lions HC Jim Caldwell earlier this week. Former Bengals HC Marvin Lewis, who’s been at Arizona State the past two seasons, interviewed with Houston Wednesday. Both have NFL teams’ interest piqued. Time has left Caldwell’s tenure in Detroit with a warmer glow, while what Lewis was able to accomplish at Cincinnati with limited resources compared to other franchises has some owners intrigued. 

Draft Season

If you’re a Jets fan, you likely spent a big chunk of this week scrambling to catch up on who the other quarterbacks besides Lawrence were in this draft. The good news, for the Jets or anyone else who wants to take a quarterback, is that there are some really good options even if none are as polished as Lawrence yet. 

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has an excellent summary of the class, from the guys at the top to some of the other names who could be interesting to watch in the middle rounds or even the late first. It’s written from a Lion’s perspective but it’s a good primer on Ohio State’s Justin Fields, BYU’s Zach Wilson and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance — the other three prospects who are clear first-round quarterbacks right now. 

We’ll have to wait until the draft season kicks off in February to learn more about Lance given his team isn’t playing now, but both Fields and Wilson are still putting out tape to dissect. In Wilson’s case, he’s continuing his meteoric rise from unknown to star as he shredded UCF in the Boca Raton Bowl, throwing for three touchdowns and rushing for two more. The Athletic’s Connor Hughes watched the game with his Jets goggles on, and it was a perfect encapsulation of Wilson’s stock right now. Awful competition but jaw-dropping, stand-out-of-your-seat throws. 

What Fields has put out on tape recently has been less encouraging. In the Buckeyes offense, Fields has put up the type of numbers you get when you play NCAA on varsity instead of Heisman. But some tougher defenses have exposed his flaws as a prospect recently, as Rotoworld’s Derrik Klassen explains. 

Fields’ issues have always been that he can struggle to see the field and get rid of the ball at times. But he has at least one more game against Clemson in the national semifinal to show he can do better and put together the type of showcase game that could really elevate his stock. It should be fascinating!