NFLTR Review: Top Landing Spots For Odell Beckham Jr.

By
Logan Ulrich
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Where in the NFL will Odell Beckham Jr. land?  

  • The man wants an elite QB and good Super Bowl odds, but don’t forget about the $
  • The five leading contenders in our estimation
  • Plus, talking Trevor, Russ, Geno & more

Landing Spots For Odell Beckham Jr.

At some point in the next few weeks, free agent WR Odell Beckham Jr. will pick a new team from what is sure to be a number of suitors. Even though he’s coming off a torn ACL, Beckham showed last season he still has plenty of juice left to give a contending team in need of a boost down the stretch at what’s becoming one of the most important positions in the game. Players from a number of teams have already been recruiting him for weeks, and Beckham will have a number of options. 

So where will he end up? There are three main factors to take into account:

  1. Team quality
  2. Quarterback quality
  3. Contract

Landing on a team that has a chance to do damage in the playoffs is important, as is finding one with a quality quarterback who Beckham has chemistry. He certainly won’t take that for granted given some of the guys he’s played with before. Both of those make sense but the contract is an underrated factor in the discussion right now. Beckham has not kept his desire for a multi-year deal this offseason from the Rams in the eight-figure range a secret, and he hasn’t been shy about expressing disappointment that it hasn’t come yet. Finding a place he can settle down and finish out his career seems to be important to him right now. 

It’s easy enough to find playoff teams with good quarterbacks who need help at receiver. It could come down to the money, though, as it so often does. With that in mind, here are our top five landing spots for Beckham: 

Giants

There’s been a little bit of chatter about Beckham returning to New York but it still feels like the Giants are viewed as a dark horse at best to land him. I think their chances could be better than most people think. If the length and size of the deal are going to be tiebreakers, the Giants are in a great position to outbid other teams for Beckham if they want. 

Over The Cap has New York ranked fourth in the NFL in 2023 with a projected effective cap space of $46.3 million. That takes into account draft picks and the cost to fill out a full 51-man offseason roster. It’s also before any cap cuts or restructures. 

Things are tighter this year but there are ways to structure that with a minimum salary, incentives and bonuses that don’t hit until 2023 for New York. Most teams would be looking at doing that anyway, but what sets the Giants apart is their greater flexibility compared to other teams to get closer to the rumored $11 million per year Beckham was hoping to get as a free agent. 

He still knows plenty of current players who have been working to recruit him and visited the locker room earlier this year. It appears there are enough positive feelings about his first stint in New York to where Beckham would seriously consider a reunion. It helps that the current regime of HC Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen is dramatically more equipped to bring the best out of Beckham than guys like Tom Coughlin and Dave Gettleman. 

This makes a lot of sense from a football perspective for the Giants, too. They’re 6-2 and have a great shot at a playoff berth in what was supposed to be the first year of a painful rebuild. Receiver is probably their biggest weakness now and a position they’ll need to address next year. Beckham not only can still play, but he could be a valuable veteran presence for young players on the roster or who will be brought in next season. The Giants have been disciplined in understanding who they are right now but Beckham fits into both the short-term and long-term picture. 

From his perspective, the team’s record automatically grabs attention. And while QB Daniel Jones would rank fifth out of the five quarterbacks we discuss, it’s worth mentioning he’s thought a lot more highly of in NFL circles, especially for the work he’s done this season. Beckham would be the best receiver he’s played with. 

Cowboys

The team that’s most recently popped up in the Beckham discussion, Dallas players, coaches and ownership have started their recruiting pitch this week. They hit the major checkboxes from a team record and QB quality perspective. Financially, they’re more limited than the Giants, but they still should have the budget to put a compelling and competitive offer on the table. 

Dallas is just barely in the black per OTC for 2023 but they can add about $22 million in cap space with cuts like LT Tyron Smith, CB Jourdan Lewis, DE Dorance Armstrong and S Malik Hooker — veterans who all have younger, cheaper options behind them right now. The Cowboys could also restructure QB Dak Prescott and gain the same amount of space in one move, or do both and really be swimming in cash. 

This offseason, the Cowboys infamously traded WR Amari Cooper because they felt he was too expensive and they needed to set aside money for a new deal for WR Michael Gallup and to spend on other spots. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb will be eligible for an extension for the first time this offseason, so that’s another factor the Cowboys will take into account. But they do still have two more years of team control with him. They could sign Beckham to a decent deal and still be spending less on the three of them than they would have been with Cooper in the fold. 

We already mentioned it, but the Cowboys tick the other major boxes Beckham will be looking for. Prescott might not be the best quarterback Beckham has played with, but if he’s behind Rams QB Matthew Stafford, it’s not by that much. The Cowboys are winning with a different formula than last year but they could be even better. The defense is exceptional, and Beckham would address the biggest weakness on offense which is a lack of targets outside of Lamb. They’re also a huge media market, which seems to appeal to Beckham. 

Chiefs

The Chiefs were one of the teams in on Beckham last season when he ultimately signed with the Rams and there was a lot of noise that Kansas City would be major players for Beckham again this year. Then they traded for WR Kadarius Toney and that quieted down somewhat. 

However, Beckham to the Chiefs would still make a lot of sense and I wouldn’t discount Kansas City. They can get to $30 million in expected cap space next offseason with one move — cutting DE Frank Clark and saving just under $20 million. If they want Beckham, they’ll be able to afford him. 

Why would they want Beckham when they have a wide receiver depth chart that seems pretty stacked now with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, second-round rookie Skyy Moore and now Toney? Isn’t adding Beckham overkill? Well for all the players the Chiefs have on offense, the only two guys you feel confident about beating man-to-man coverage reliably right now are TE Travis Kelce and maybe Toney. The Chiefs are humming on offense but they’re seeing way more man coverage than they have in the past. On the rare occasions they do stall out, it’s because their receivers are having a tough time separating. That’s something that could become a much bigger issue when the schedule gets harder in the playoffs, so it makes sense for the Chiefs to try and get ahead of it now. 

Down the line, Toney, Moore and Valdes-Scantling are the only receivers under contract in 2023, and the latter can be cut to save $7 million with just $4 million in dead money. Beckham would be a valuable veteran presence for the youngsters and also wouldn’t prevent the team from adding someone else or even re-signing Smith-Schuster.

Admittedly, Beckham would be a luxury. The Chiefs will be just fine if they lose out on Beckham. They could be better with him in the fold, though, and with how tight the margins in the NFL are, every little bit helps toward a Super Bowl. 

Rams

I think Beckham loves living and playing in Los Angeles, so you can’t throw the Rams out of the mix until he signs on the dotted line with someone else. But their cap situation in 2023 is going to be a real challenge. They’re projected to be in the red and will need to make some moves to clear space to fill out their team, let alone make any notable additions. 

The challenge is there aren’t many obvious cap cuts that move the needle in cap savings and are worth the dead money hit. Los Angeles can and will go the restructuring route but they’ll have to be careful. All of the players who are options for this move are at or past the age of 30, which makes it risky to push too much investment into the future and limit the flexibility to move on. 

Los Angeles will take even more care than usual to make sure the money they’re freeing up is going into players they’re confident will be key producers for them. With that in mind, is Beckham a prudent investment? He’ll be 31 and coming off his second torn ACL. They already have Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson and Van Jefferson. It doesn’t mean they couldn’t use Beckham but they might already have enough invested at the position and need to spread things around, like to the offensive line or edge rushing group. 

If the price is right, the Rams could definitely be in the mix. My sense is they won’t win a bidding war and Beckham won’t be chomping at the bit to join a 3-6 team unless their fortunes dramatically change soon. 

Bills

Last year, it arguably made more sense for Beckham to sign with the Chiefs or Packers than the Rams. But the Rams players, led by Von Miller who himself had barely had time to set up his locker at that point, put on a full-court press in recruiting Beckham and making him feel like he was more welcome in Los Angeles. 

So don’t dismiss the fact that Miller is in Buffalo now and making his pitch to Beckham. Still, I think it would take Beckham being willing to take a discount and perhaps even another injury to Buffalo’s receiving corps to really get these two sides together. Maybe he’s willing to do that if he really likes the fit. And more weapons can’t hurt from Buffalo’s perspective. 

If there’s a bidding war for Beckham, the Bills will have a hard time justifying getting involved though. They’re going to need to do a decent amount of work to get under the cap, fill out the roster and make room for moves this offseason. They have -$17 million in expected cap space in 2023 and major pending free agents like S Jordan Poyer and LB Tremaine Edmunds. They can restructure QB Josh Allen and Miller but they’ll need to make other cuts or restructures. 

Considering the skill position talent they have already with Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox and Nyheim Hines, plus youngsters like fourth-rounder Khalil Shakir and second-rounder James Cook, it makes sense for the Bills to stay cheap and save precious cap space for other, more important needs. 

This Week In Football

  • Entering this past week, the Colts were the biggest disaster in football with the drama of firing HC Frank Reich and replacing him with inexperienced interim HC Jeff Saturday. By virtue of their loss to that Colts team, the Raiders have now taken that mantle. They’re 2-7, and no matter what new HC Josh McDaniels tries to sell, this is not where they expected to be this offseason when they were traded for WR Davante Adams or signed OLB Chandler Jones or extended TE Darren Waller. They’re one of the biggest disappointments of the 2022 season, right up there with the Colts and Broncos. Indy fired their coach and there’s speculation the Broncos will fire theirs, but Raiders owner Mark Davis, for now at least, is publicly and privately backing McDaniels and his long-term vision for the team. 
  • For the Colts, the win was keyed by a strong performance from veteran QB Matt Ryan who regained his starting job. Barring injury or another intervention from owner Jim Irsay, it looks like Ryan will keep it for the rest of the season. It was always strange to bench Ryan even if he wasn’t playing well, and it didn’t play well in the locker room. Reich had an uphill battle to keep his job anyway but the injustice of being forced to start Sam Ehlinger, then fired after two losses, while Irsay’s handpicked successor gets to go back to the former MVP is hard to ignore. 
  • There’s still plenty of season to go but we can start to look ahead slightly to the offseason and the questions it will pose for teams. For the Giants, this season has already been a success powered by performances by guys like RB Saquon Barkley and QB Daniel Jones, who came into this season with a lot to prove and have played admirably. During the offseason, though, they’ll have a bit of a dilemma with both players scheduled to be free agents and only one franchise tag to use. That’s why New York checked in with Barkley during their bye week on a potential long-term deal, as if both sides felt comfortable with the number, it would have been beneficial to go ahead and lock Barkley up. However, Barkley’s deal will be complicated given the position he plays, even though he’s immensely talented. Jones’ deal won’t be simple either, so it’ll be fascinating to see what the Giants do. 
  • Things are much easier for the Seahawks even though their quarterback is also having an unexpected career year. They don’t have any other players who are candidates for the franchise tag and can keep that in their back pocket when it comes to keeping QB Geno Smith past this season. They also will engage in extension talks with him this offseason, but there’s been nothing on that front yet. One way or another, if it’s on the tag or a long-term deal, Smith is going to dramatically increase his career earnings next offseason. The parallel to look at here is Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, who signed a four-year, $118 million deal after his career revival during the 2019 season. Something like that, adjusted for how the cap has grown, would make sense for Smith. 
  • Even though the trade deadline is getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror, there are still some avenues for roster movement. The Eagles made a big splash this week, literally, signing DTs Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph to bolster their depth on the interior offensive line. Philadelphia has lost a pair of big bodies there in first-round DT Jordan Davis and DT Marlon Tuipolotu, and they like to employ a heavy rotation to keep everyone fresh. Neither Suh nor Joseph is being brought in to play more than 15-20 snaps a game but they do take away the sting of the injuries and address one of the few weaknesses the contending Eagles have. 
  • Some other moves: The Raiders claimed DL Jerry Tillery after his surprising release by the Chargers. They need a ton of help on defense, so Tillery could potentially move the needle and use a fresh start, though he’s landing on a far worse team. He apparently had issues with his playing time, and while it’s murky, it seems similar things may have led to the Cardinals waiving RB Eno Benjamin. He was claimed by the Texans where he’ll also work behind another lead back in fourth-round RB Dameon Pierce. Houston was active on waivers this week, making use of their No. 1 priority to claim Packers 2021 third-round WR Amari Rodgers. He made shockingly little impact in Green Bay but perhaps a fresh start will hope. From the Texans’ point of view, they needed a receiver and claiming Rodgers is almost like adding a free draft pick. 
  • Unfortunately there were a number of notable injuries again this past week, including to some of the game’s biggest stars:
    • Rams WR Cooper Kupp went down with a pretty gnarly ankle injury, and this should realistically just about flush a season that has been circling the drain for Los Angeles given how reliant that offense has been on Kupp and how poor nearly every other player on that offense has played. Kupp technically could make it back to play this season but Los Angeles will only bring him back if they’re still playing meaningful football. 
    • Colts LB Shaquille Leonard suffered another setback with his back injury, and elected to have surgery to try and finally get on top of the issue and come back healthy in 2023. The game is better when star players are playing, so hopefully Leonard comes back to full strength. Nothing’s ever a given with back injuries though. 
    • It was a bad week for tight ends, as Cardinals TE Zach Ertz went down with a knee injury and will need season-ending surgery. He was one of Arizona’s most reliable weapons, so that’s a blow. Meanwhile, Ertz’s former Eagles teammate, TE Dallas Goedert, was also hurt this week, injuring his shoulder on a fumble/facemask in Philadelphia’s first loss of the season on Monday. He’s going on injured reserve but the good news is the Eagles expect him back before the season is over. 
    • Panthers CB Donte Jackson tore his Achilles, which is absolutely an unfortunate blow for him. In the grand scheme of stuff to go wrong for Carolina this season, it doesn’t move the needle that much. They have some depth at corner to lean on. The Dolphins lost DE Emmanuel Ogbah for the season to a torn triceps but his struggles were partially why they made the move to trade for OLB Bradley Chubb. That subtracts a potential pass rusher from Miami’s stable of pass rushers but they should be able to absorb the loss. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

So far, 2022 is the year of the quarterback slump. Here’s a list of quarterbacks who are unequivocally playing well: 

That’s it…

Josh Allen was on the list but he’s officially in a slump after this past week. Also not included are Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray and probably some others. All of them are playing below the standard we’ve seen for the rest of their careers, to varying degrees. Common sense says we’ve seen all of these guys play too well for too long to not think some, perhaps even most, won’t figure things out eventually, Cover 2 be damned…

Let’s just go ahead and talk about quarterbacks a bunch. The position is hard to evaluate and much harder to play. There’s a lot of nuance that goes into it that’s often lost on talk shows or on social media, and this is a good example of why it’s important to look at the bigger picture. Based on this effectively being his rookie year, I’m willing to take the above stat as a pretty good sign Trevor Lawrence is good. And sooner than later, he’ll figure out what he can and can’t get away with in the red zone…

Another good example of context, this ESPN article from before the Broncos’ last game against the Jaguars is a good example of how discussing quarterback play is complicated. There’s a lot that’s gone into Wilson’s slow start to the 2022 season. Figuring out what’s due to being on a new team, what’s due to the coaching/play calling, and what’s due to Wilson being perhaps a different player at 33 than he was at 28 will be huge for Denver going forward…

Similarly, it’d be easy to look at Smith’s stats for the Seahawks this season compared to every other year of his career and dismiss him as a fluke. But the nuts and bolts of what Smith is doing on the field right now, as illustrated by Football Outsiders, show Smith is no fluke…

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