Resetting The 2025 Quarterback Carousel

We’re only two weeks into the season and a long, long way away from the 2025 offseason when the quarterback roulette will take another spin. But there have been enough significant changes from our last look at the 2025 QB carousel in June that it’s worth recalibrating where things stand. 

One thing that remains certain is the demand for quarterbacks isn’t going anywhere. Top to bottom across the league, this is the worst start to a year for quarterbacks in recent memory. Through two weeks, there have been just 69 passing touchdowns, a major drop from last year which itself was a major drop from the immediate years prior. In fact, it’s the second-worst start for passing touchdowns this millennium. 

Passing touchdowns through two weeks:

2019: 105
2020: 110
2021: 110
2022: 105
2023: 86
2024: 66*

*Pending MNF

— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) September 16, 2024

Scoring remains stable from last year because of better field position from the new kickoffs, an incendiary start to the year by kickers, particularly from 50-plus, and more efficient rushing offenses. But only nine quarterbacks reached 200 yards passing in both Week 1 and Week 2. 

There’s probably not a surge of supply coming to fix the problem either. In fact, the market for available quarterbacks looks markedly worse now than it did back in June. Next offseason might be the first since 2020 not to have a blockbuster quarterback acquisition. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott could have been the big whale everyone was pursuing but Dallas was able to lock him up on a long-term deal hours before Week 1. 

With no Prescott, who will be out there for QB-needy teams to pursue as an upgrade? Which teams look like they’ll be in that hunt? 

Updates To The Leaguewide QB Landscape

Usually I structure these articles by putting all 32 starting quarterbacks into buckets like elite, rookies, solid veterans, etc, to get a sense of which teams are content at the position and which will be antsy for change. I’m not going to go all the way through that exercise again but there are a few changes substantial enough to note since writing on this topic in June. 

• Both Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence and Packers QB Jordan Love signed massive extensions worth $55 million per year that temporarily reset the quarterback market until Prescott signed for $60 million annually. For all intents and purposes, that locks those two in for the next two or three years because it would be exceptionally painful for the teams to get out of those contracts. Love is hurt and Lawrence is struggling, so the early returns aren’t great, but it’s too early to panic for either. Lawrence’s trajectory is worth watching, though. 
• Rookie quarterbacks are typically afforded a lot of patience, so there’s nothing substantial to report on the 2024 class even though it’s struggled out of the gate. Things are moving quicker for the 2023 class, though. The Panthers decided to bench QB Bryce Young after just 18 starts, a move that seems stunning at face value unless you’ve watched Young’s two games this year. He looks like he’s dramatically regressed from an already poor rookie season. Titans QB Will Levis might join Young on the sidelines eventually if he doesn’t cut out the brain-dead decisions. His new HC Brian Callahan is clearly losing his patience with some of Levis’ turnovers, but Levis has more leash than Young right now.
• We’ve touched on Prescott’s deal locking him in with Dallas for the long haul. The Dolphins also extended QB Tua Tagovailoa on a notable deal that came in under the top of the market but still represented a significant financial commitment of more than $50 million per year. Tagovailoa earned it with another big statistical year and after staying healthy for a full season. Unfortunately, his latest concussion from Week 2 has resurfaced long-term health concerns about Tagovailoa. While reports say Tagovailoa doesn’t plan to retire, this is still a situation to watch. At minimum, the Dolphins feel like a team that could be making a more significant investment at backup quarterback. 
• Amidst all of the struggles around the league, Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield and Seahawks QB Geno Smith are playing really well. Mayfield cashed in on a new deal this past offseason and Smith could be playing his way into an updated contract if he keeps this up. Saints QB Derek Carr is also off to an outstanding start as the Saints have the fourth-most points through two weeks in NFL history. New OC Klint Kubiak’s offense, which is a branch off the Shanahan tree, has been a hit with Carr and New Orleans’ skill players. Carr was a potential cut candidate if the Saints struggled in 2024 but things are going great right now. 
• Things are not going great for two other quarterbacks with questionable contracts. Browns QB Deshaun Watson had a miserable Week 1 and a below-average Week 2. A crack has also emerged in his previously ironclad contract armor, as a new lawsuit alleging sexual assault was filed earlier this month. The NFL has opened an investigation as this plays out, and if the end result is a suspension, that could give the Browns an out in the $92 million in guarantees they still owe Watson for 2025 and 2026. As for Giants QB Daniel Jones, he calmed the pressure on job security with two touchdown passes in Week 2, but it’s not a good sign that national reporters are already bringing up the $23 million in injury guarantees on Jones’ contract in 2025 and the possibility of the Giants benching Jones to avoid being on the hook for that sum. 
• Out of the batch of bridge quarterbacks signed this offseason, Vikings QB Sam Darnold has been by far the best of the bunch. Darnold is completing 72 percent of his passes, has four touchdowns and 476 passing yards in two games and Minnesota is 2-0, including a huge upset against the reigning NFC champion 49ers. We’ve seen Darnold play well for stretches before, but not quite like this. If he keeps it up over a full season, he’s going to be in a very good position as a free agent in 2025. 

With Prescott off the market, Darnold might already be the headliner of the 2025 class of free agent quarterbacks, a group that also includes both Steelers QBs Justin Fields and Russell Wilson. Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett leads a number of veteran backup options, while a trio of dented cans from the 2021 class — Broncos QB Zach Wilson, Cowboys QB Trey Lance and Jaguars QB Mac Jones — offer some intrigue as reclamation projects for an innovative coach to take on. If you’re a team looking for a new starter, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about in that group. 

2025 Draft Class

That leaves the draft, and it’s way way way too early to take a definitive stance on any of the 2025 prospects. Unlike prior years, there’s not a clear consensus top prospect or even any who would be consensus top-five picks more years than not. But there are several who could play their way up boards, either into the first round or into the top ten. A non-exhaustive list: 

• Georgia QB Carson Beck: In his second year as the starter for Georgia, the No. 2 team in the nation. Above average in just about every area but not necessarily elite in any. 
• Texas QB Quinn Ewers: Third year starting, former top high school recruit, gunslinger mentality, might be starting to put it all together for No. 1 Texas after two years of inconsistency. 
• Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders: Tough pocket passer with an assassin’s mentality, but comes with some accompanying baggage. 
• Penn State QB Drew Allar: Prototypical NFL size and arm strength. Below average results…so far. 
• Miami QB Cam Ward: An early riser from the 2025 senior class with experience, arm talent and athleticism, looking to put it all together for the Canes. 
• Alabama QB Jalen Milroe: Superb athleticism. Passing skills are less developed but potentially underrated 
• Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard: Checks a ton of boxes the NFL looks for with size, athleticism, makeup, scheme, experience. Tape is still inconsistent. 
• Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart: College football’s leading passer in the first few weeks and a former top recruit. Checks the production box, will he check the traits box? 

This class isn’t as bad as the 2022 class which had one first-rounder (Kenny Pickett to the Steelers) and a bunch of third-rounders already on different teams than the ones that drafted them. I would guess a handful of these players end up in the first round in 2025, especially with how many teams need help at quarterback. 

Trade Market

There might be a little more intrigue in the trade market but it’s still too early in the season to say definitively. There are a couple situations to monitor as the season plays out, with the first in Los Angeles between the Rams and QB Matthew Stafford. There was an uneasy contract situation between the two sides all offseason, with Stafford seeking more guarantees from Los Angeles. The resolution they reached to avoid a holdout or hold-in during camp was to move money and guarantees into 2024 for Stafford — and leave almost no guarantees in 2025. 

That sets up another inflection point for the Rams and Stafford. The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue said during camp her sense was the Rams and Stafford would either return to the negotiating table for a new deal if he played well this season, or Los Angeles would work with Stafford to find him a new home in 2025. She also added Stafford’s contract desires and the ballooning quarterback market would be a factor. A Rams source told ESPN’s Dan Graziano they viewed Stafford’s contract as a year-to-year proposition at this point. 

It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rams and Stafford work something out next offseason, as the veteran has been everything Los Angeles has hoped for since acquiring him in a huge blockbuster deal. But it’s notable the Rams want to keep their options open. For Stafford’s part, the 36-year-old sounds like he plans to play for a few more years as long as he stays healthy. There’s a non-zero chance that it’s for a different team. 

Falcons QB Kirk Cousins is another player worth monitoring, and we did actually highlight this situation back in June after Atlanta used the No. 8 pick on QB Michael Penix Jr. Even if the Falcons meant what they said about this being Cousins’ team and the Penix pick being for down the road, that kind of investment necessarily invites questions about the backup when the starter isn’t playing well or is dealing with an injury, both of which seemed to be the case in Week 1. 

Fortunately Cousins’ game-winning drive on Monday night against the Eagles turned down the heat, because an 0-2 start with the Chiefs on deck would have been dicey. For now, the idea of Cousins being one-and-done in Atlanta is premature. That said, there’s a lot of season still to go and Cousins still doesn’t look like he’s quite 100 percent from last year’s Achilles injury. 

If we see Penix under center for the Falcons in 2024 for whatever reason and he plays well, it will be almost impossible for the Falcons to go back to Cousins. At that point, he becomes a potential trade chip, though that would also be a complex situation due to his age, contract, injury history and no-trade clause. 

The last situation to watch is with the Jets and QB Aaron Rodgers. New York is all or nothing this year, and the Jets need to make the playoffs and potentially even win a game to ensure HC Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas are back in 2025. If that happens, they can justify the status quo with a 41-year-old Rodgers. 

If not, things get tricky. Rodgers is under contract for one more season and due $37.5 million, including a $35 million option bonus. Whoever is in charge of making decisions will have to decide if he’s worth that at 41 years old — but Rodgers will also have some say in the matter too, whether he wants to keep playing or if he decides to call it a career. The way the rest of the 2024 season plays out will have a major influence on how things fall there. 

The Demand

If the season ended today, there would be four teams that would desperately need to upgrade at quarterback. After that, there are about four other wildcards worth monitoring depending on how the rest of the season plays out. 

Raiders

Las Vegas wanted to upgrade this past offseason and was left with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell when the music stopped. Minshew got the nod over O’Connell after a preseason competition and both are under contract next year. Despite the upset win over the Ravens, expectations are still low for the Raiders and they feel like they will be one of the teams most motivated to land a quarterback upgrade. 

Giants

Jones is due a base salary of $30 million in 2025 and the Giants can save $19.4 million in cap space against $22.2 million in dead money by releasing him. Even if he staves off a benching for the whole season, he would have to play dramatically better to prevent the Giants from cutting him. He probably has to get New York into the playoffs again and at 0-2 that’s a long shot. 

The Giants also struck out despite doing heavy homework on this past draft class of rookie quarterbacks. They will be exceptionally motivated once again to land a long-term solution. Either Giants GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll have to get this decision right to save their jobs, or a new regime will be making the call and starting over. 

Panthers

It’s astounding that the Panthers are at this point with Young after just 18 games and an entire offseason dedicated to putting him in a better situation to improve. But Carolina looked like a junior varsity team the first two weeks of the season. Clearly whatever new HC Dave Canales did with Young this spring and summer did not work, because the former No. 1 pick looked even worse than his abysmal rookie season. Maybe some time on the sidelines helps him rediscover himself but odds are the Panthers will be in the quarterback market once again come 2025. Veteran QB Andy Dalton is not a long-term solution. 

At this point, the Panthers have tried just about every avenue to try and find a quarterback. They’ve taken shots on veterans in free agency, traded for players and took the huge swing in the draft on Young. There is a fatal flaw or two in the process, whether it’s how Carolina evaluates quarterbacks or sets up the system around them. Unfortunately the rest of the roster is also horrible, so there are no quick or easy solutions here.  

Steelers

Pittsburgh has to be here because both Fields and Wilson are on one-year contracts. One of them could be back depending on how the season shakes out — right now Pittsburgh is 2-0 with Fields under center but has scored just one touchdown on offense. 

Or the Steelers could do what they did this offseason and start over entirely at the position. All options are on the table. 

Jets

They could make the playoffs, make a run and decide to run things back again in 2025. They could win the Super Bowl and Rodgers could decide to retire while he’s on top. They could miss the playoffs and Rodgers could decide to retire. They could miss the playoffs and Rodgers could decide he wants to come back, or he wants to play for another team. A new regime could decide they don’t want to pay $37.5 million to a 41-year-old quarterback. 

There’s truly a wide range of outcomes here but a different starting quarterback for the Jets in 2025 is very much in play. 

Rams

The Rams have been hit the hardest by injuries of any team so far, with nearly their entire offensive line and both star WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua going down in the first two weeks. They’ll fight tooth and nail to tread water, hoping for some good injury luck in the second half of the year when most of these players are expected back. But it’s worth mentioning how shaky the foundation of this team is with so many aging core pieces. There’s also always the chance Rams HC Sean McVay could change his mind and take one of the lucrative TV jobs he’s flirted with in the past. 

Maybe the Rams beat the odds yet again with a run to the playoffs or deeper and everyone runs it back again in 2025. Maybe this is the last year of the Rams as we’ve known them. Or maybe it’s something in between. 

Browns

The Browns have got themselves into as big a pickle of a situation at quarterback as I can remember by handing $230 million guaranteed to a sexual predator who forgot how to play quarterback. The latest lawsuit might give them an escape hatch on the remaining $92 million they owe Watson but that process will be long and complicated. Up until now, they’ve expressed nothing but confidence that Watson would rediscover his early career form and have tripled down on that. 

One way or another, the Browns have to get more out of the quarterback position. Maybe that’s finding their way with Watson, maybe that’s signing or drafting another player to give them options. There aren’t any easy answers here. The current status quo isn’t sustainable though. 

Titans

Levis has made just 11 starts in his young career so far and deserves the benefit of the doubt from the team. He’ll get the whole season to make his case as a starting-caliber quarterback for Tennessee to build around in 2025. But the new coach didn’t draft Levis and has no patience for the mind-numbing hero ball plays Levis has fallen into. Titans GM Ran Carthon only spent a second-rounder on Levis, and even if he traded up to do it that’s still a significantly lower level of commitment than most other young quarterbacks playing right now. Nothing beyond this season is guaranteed for Levis.