Separating 2-0 Contenders From Pretenders

This season, nine teams made it through the first two weeks undefeated: the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks.

According to CBS, 63.9 percent of teams to start the season 2-0 have made the playoffs since 1990. That means roughly two-thirds of these teams will hang on to make the playoffs, while one-third falter by season’s end.

Based on these numbers, we should expect six teams from this group to make the playoffs and three to fall short. Certainly, all nine could make the playoffs, or even miss them. But on average, that’s about what we should expect: somewhere between five and seven of these teams will be playing in January.

Today, I’ve ranked these nine teams in order of least to most likely to make the playoffs. Scheduling plays a factor, as does the division and conference each team is from, but team strength is still the most important metric. How much faith do I have in each team moving forward? Let’s take a look:

Los Angeles Chargers

Season-opening wins over the Raiders and Panthers have given new Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh a 2-0 start in his return to the NFL. The Chargers were a polarizing team heading into the year, with some picking them as a wildcard team and others wondering if they’d get more than six wins this season. Harbaugh brings an old-school, thumping, run-heavy mentality to Los Angeles, and while the opponents aren’t much to write home about, some of the individual performances on this team are noteworthy.

For years, the talented Chargers defense has underachieved despite all the big names scattered across the roster. Guys like DE Joey Bosa, once a Defensive Player of the Year contender, hadn’t made a mark in a few seasons. Through two games, Bosa has two sacks and has provided consistent pressure. Chargers S Derwin James is flying around the field, looking for a bounce-back campaign, and DE Khalil Mack is steady as Bosa’s running mate.

What Harbaugh would do with the offense is what everyone was waiting to see. Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he doesn’t have many weapons to throw to. The Chargers used the No. 5 pick on OT Joe Alt, who looks phenomenal so far, but it left the cupboard a bit bare at wide receiver. 2024 second-rounder Ladd McConkey is the starting slot receiver, and underwhelming 2023 first-rounder Quentin Johnston pairs with Josh Palmer on the outside. They have high hopes for McConkey, but Herbert threw for less than 150 yards in both games. That’s not a sustainable model for offense in 2024.

The Chargers face the Steelers and Chiefs in the next two weeks, which should be a solid barometer for how good this team really is. They don’t have the toughest schedule, but they do face the Cardinals, Saints, Ravens, Bengals, Falcons and Browns which could all end up being difficult matchups, in addition to their two games against the division-rival Chiefs. This likely isn’t the year for serious contention for Los Angeles, but Harbaugh will look to get them on the right track.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers HC Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 17 years as a head coach, and it doesn’t look like he’s about to start now. Road wins over the Falcons and Broncos have given the Steelers some breathing room, and now they can get comfortable. The defense is elite, with OLB T.J. Watt single-handedly dominating the Falcons game, and the offensive line seems to have taken a step forward from last season.

The main challenge for Pittsburgh this season will be managing the quarterback position. They traded 2022 first-round pick Kenny Pickett to the Eagles this offseason and brought in Russell Wilson from the Broncos and Justin Fields from the Bears. Wilson was named the starter coming out of the preseason, but is struggling with a calf injury, so Fields has started the last two games. Tomlin committed to Fields in advance of their Week 3 matchup with the Chargers, and there’s a lingering question if Wilson will reclaim his job once healthy. Fields hasn’t blown anyone away with his play, but if he keeps winning, it may be difficult to go away from him. The last thing a contending team wants is a quarterback controversy, so the hope is that one of Fields or Wilson establishes themselves as the superior option and lasts through the year.

The schedule is interesting for the Steelers, as well. Through Week 9, they have a fairly easy slate, but they have an absolutely brutal run to close the year. Starting in Week 10, they go home against the Ravens, at the Browns, at the Bengals, home against the Browns, at the Eagles, at the Ravens, home against the Chiefs, home against the Bengals. That is a nightmare of a schedule for the second half of the season. If the Steelers aren’t at least 6-3 through nine games, getting to nine wins, let alone a wildcard berth, could be extremely difficult.

Pittsburgh’s offensive line is improved, but still not great. That, combined with an iffy quarterback situation and a questionable group of weapons, leaves them little margin for error. I don’t doubt Tomlin’s ability to squeak his team to nine wins, but it’s going to be a tough road.

Minnesota Vikings

Is the Sam Darnold revival real this time? We shall see, but the campaign is off to a strong start. The journeyman quarterback hopes to follow in the footsteps of guys like Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, enjoying a later-career breakout. Darnold has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the NFL through two weeks, spreading the ball around to the Vikings’ bevy of weapons. A dominating win over the lowly Giants gave way to a home win over the 49ers, a performance that caught the attention of the rest of the league.

While the offense under Darnold and HC Kevin O’Connell is explosive, the defense has been the real surprise. What was expected to be a struggling unit never let the 49ers offense get comfortable, holding them to only 17 points. The Minnesota defense ranks first in the NFL in sacks with 11 and third in the NFL in points per game at 11.5.

The question for the Vikings is simply one of sustainability. Darnold has had strong starts to previous seasons before falling back down to earth as the season wore on. The Vikings face a tough schedule, as well, with the Texans, Packers, Jets and Lions on deck. The NFC North is a tough division as it is, and they also draw the AFC South and East divisions, two of the tougher divisions in the league.

If Darnold and this defense can keep exceeding expectations, Minnesota could hang tough in the NFC playoff race. That’s a tall task given their schedule, though, especially when relying on unproven talent.

Seattle Seahawks

I thought the Seahawks were a sleeper team this preseason. Not many were talking them up as a potential contender, and I liked a lot of the moves they made this offseason to fix last season’s issues. 2-0 is 2-0, but it hasn’t looked pretty. After a six-point win against Denver in which they allowed two safeties, the Seahawks needed overtime to secure the 23-20 win over New England.

For the most part, this team has played well. The defense looks great, with OLB Boye Mafe coming on as a pass rusher and the secondary remaining one of the league’s best. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon alongside S Julian Love have shut down opposing passing attacks. Starting QB Geno Smith hasn’t been perfect, but he’s played well, and the WR trio of D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have all had at least one big game already this season.

What’s held them back so far is the play of their offensive line. Seahawks LT Charles Cross has graded out as the best tackle in the NFL through two games, per PFF. But RT Abraham Lucas is still recovering from injury and hasn’t played yet, and swing tackle George Fant went down with an injury in Week 1, though he could return as soon as this week. The interior of the offensive line has struggled, giving up routine pressure and hampering the run game. It’s a position group Seattle hasn’t prioritized in the draft in recent years, and that’s showing up on the field.

Seattle’s fortunes this year will likely be decided by the offensive line. Getting Lucas and Fant back healthy is important, but the interior of the line simply needs to play better. Interior pressure is extremely disruptive to an offense, as it prevents the quarterback from stepping up in the pocket and all but shuts down the run game. The Seahawks have the defense and offensive weapons to make a serious run. It all comes down to that line.

New Orleans Saints

The surprise team in the league through two weeks, the Saints dominated out the gate against Carolina before going on the road and blowing out the Cowboys in an encore performance. 91 points scored through two weeks is the fourth-most in NFL history — this offense is cruising, and the defense looks sharp as ever. Saints QB Derek Carr looks as good as he did when he was an MVP candidate with the Raiders in 2016, and an offensive line that was shaky on paper entering the year has held up well so far.

There are a few reasons why I’m not bullish on the Saints’ chances to keep up this momentum. First, the NFC — and the South division in particular — looks a lot stronger than predicted in the preseason. While the Panthers don’t appear to be a threat, the Buccaneers are 2-0 with a road win in Detroit. Tampa Bay has won the division three years in a row, and this is largely the same team that won a playoff game a year ago. Atlanta struggled in Week 1 but won in Philadelphia in Week 2, and the Falcons brought in a lot of new pieces this offseason, including QB Kirk Cousins, who is still regaining his form off an Achilles injury. They might be significantly better by the end of the season than they are right now.

Winning the division won’t be easy for New Orleans, and the NFC wildcard race could be muddy, with teams like Minnesota, Arizona and Seattle getting off to strong starts. Additionally, the schedule stiffens over the next four weeks. The Saints get Philadelphia at home, before traveling to Atlanta and Kansas City, then finishing the stretch with Tampa Bay. There’s a chance the Saints are 3-3 or even 2-4 after that stretch, and to top it all off they have a four-day turnaround after the Buccaneers before they host the Broncos on Thursday Night Football.

If there’s a reason for optimism in New Orleans, it’s the play of that offensive line. We knew the defense would be excellent, and Carr is a veteran quarterback who’s commanded winning teams before. First-round OT Taliese Fuaga has been stellar, and the interior of this line has played like one of the league’s best. Stonewalling the Panthers’ defensive line is one thing, but the Cowboys have one of the best pass rushes in the league. They couldn’t get anything going against this Saints line.

This is a strong start for the Saints, and while I don’t believe they’ll keep up this level of play, they could very well find themselves in the playoff hunt down the stretch of the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Picking up where they left off last season, the Buccaneers secured a comfortable home win over the Commanders before going on the road and getting revenge on the Lions for last season’s divisional round loss. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is playing the best ball of his career, keeping the offense humming. This is largely the same squad that won a playoff game last year, adding a few new pieces on both sides of the ball to shore up some weak areas, and through two weeks the “running it back” plan seems to be paying off.

If I were to identify an area of concern for Tampa Bay, it would be twofold. First, the pass rush might not be sustainable. The unit lacks a reliable stud, with Joe Tryon-Shoyinka the most proven piece of that unit. Second-year man YaYa Diaby has taken a step, and if he can be their go-to guy, the defense looks a lot better. Second, injuries have already decimated this team, especially in the secondary. None of them are season-ending, but if the injury issues linger, it could lead to a few too many losses early in the year.

But this is a team I believe in. Mayfield is comfortable throwing to a group that includes WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and third-rounder Jalen McMillan to form a potent trio. The schedule could be difficult, with an improved NFC South to navigate in addition to matchups against the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Cowboys, and 49ers. The Bucs already won on the road in Detroit, proving their ability to win these high-level games. They’re my pick to win the division through two weeks.

Buffalo Bills

I didn’t really know what to think of the Bills, Dolphins, or Jets heading into the season. They were all projected to be good teams, and all had reasons they might not reach their goals. Through two games, the Bills have looked like the best team in that division by far, dominating the Dolphins in Miami in Week 2 while the Jets have struggled. For all the changes this roster has undergone, QB Josh Allen and HC Sean McDermott have this team humming once again. The comeback home win over the Cardinals in Week 1 didn’t inspire much confidence until the Cardinals blew out the Rams in Week 2, and now the Bills are armed with a pair of quality wins entering a tough stretch on their schedule.

The Bills brought in three new starters on offense, trading WR Stefon Diggs to Houston, letting WR Gabriel Davis walk in free agency and cutting C Mitch Morse (both Davis and Morse are now in Jacksonville). Connor McGovern replaced Morse while a platoon of receivers aimed to replace the production of Diggs and Davis. Second-round WR Keon Coleman was the 33rd pick in the 2024 draft, while Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Curtis Samuel were brought in via free agency. The early returns are promising, with Allen spreading the ball around to his new weapons.

The transition on defense was even more stark. With LB Matt Milano out for the season, the Bills have five new starters on defense, saying goodbye to mainstays in the secondary in CB Tre’Davious White and safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. It hasn’t been perfect, but the defense shut down the explosive Miami offense, which is a good sign for their potential. All the new faces and moving pieces on this team meant we didn’t know how Buffalo would look to open the season, but it looks good so far.

As I mentioned, Buffalo has a tough four-game stretch ahead. They’re home against the Jaguars before a three-game road stretch at the Ravens, Texans, and Jets. Going 3-1 in this stretch would cement them as one of the NFL’s premier contenders, while a 2-2 run would still find them in the thick of the AFC race.

Houston Texans

Most everyone expected the Texans to be 2-0 after two weeks. A road test at the Colts and a home game against the rebuilt Bears aren’t the easiest opening slate of game, but for a team with expectations as high as Houston’s this season, they needed to take care of business. They did just that, winning a narrow game over Indianapolis and wearing down Chicago over the course of the game.

What should have Texans fans so excited for the future is the Texans haven’t even reached their full potential yet. The 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year, QB C.J. Stroud, hasn’t looked as sharp as he did at the end of last season. It’s not that he’s been bad, just that we all know there’s another level he can reach. New additions to the offense, WR Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon, added some much-needed experience, and the offensive line is much healthier than it was a year ago.

The defense has been excellent, as well. Second-round CB Kamari Lassiter had a fantastic game against the Bears, winning several matchups against their top receivers. Veteran DE Danielle Hunter already made an impact, pairing with 2023 No. 3 pick Will Anderson Jr. for three sacks between them so far. Third-year CB Derek Stingley Jr. looks to have taken the next step into an elite player, and the defense as a whole is much improved from a year ago.

Additionally, the rest of the AFC South got off to a slow start. The Colts, Jaguars, and Titans are a combined 0-6. At least one of Indianapolis and Jacksonville will likely turn things around to make a playoff push, but the Texans have a clear path to the division title. Houston plays the Vikings, Jaguars, and Bills over the next three weeks, and going at least 2-1 in those games would make a statement to the league. The Texans look like contenders, and they haven’t even played their best ball yet.

Kansas City Chiefs

After a close win over the Ravens on the NFL’s opening night, the Chiefs snuck another close win against the Bengals in Week 2. Although both Baltimore and Cincinnati now sit at 0-2, both are still excellent teams and should be among the AFC’s contenders come season’s end. Nailing victories over both provides the Chiefs with a sizeable early advantage in the AFC race heading into road matchups with the Falcons and Chargers.

The Chiefs added some juice to their offense this year, drafting WR Xavier Worthy and signing WR Marquise Brown. Brown is out for the regular season after undergoing shoulder surgery, though he could return for the playoffs. Second-year player Wanya Morris is battling with rookie Kingsley Suamataia for the starting left tackle spot — Suamataia won the job in preseason, though was benched for Morris against the Bengals. Neither inspires much confidence protecting QB Patrick Mahomes’ blindside.

Additionally, TE Travis Kelce appears to have lost a step. He’s made little impact through two games, though he should still be a reliable option for Mahomes in critical situations. Crucially, WR Rashee Rice looks electric and is Mahomes’ top option. The two forged a strong connection this offseason, and it’s showing up in-game.

It may take some time for the new pieces to fall into place and this offense to figure itself out, but the Chiefs are the easy favorites in their division. None of their division rivals pose a true threat, and Kansas City should coast to another playoff berth. The real question is if they can reclaim the number one seed in the AFC, not if they’ll miss the playoffs.