Bold Predictions For The 2024 NFL Draft

Like Christmas in late April, Draft Day has finally arrived and it’s time for everyone to open up their presents. We’ve been mocking and speculating for months, now it’s just a matter of waiting a little bit longer for the first round to kick off tonight and give us some real tangential picks to talk about. 

So far this week, we’ve dropped three mock drafts outlining how things could unfold tonight. It’s the culmination of weeks of observations and discussion, and there’s plenty of analysis and dot connecting at each link. Further down the page, you’ll find a table outlining all 32 picks from each of our mocks, as well as some discussion about the various points where we diverged. 

But in the past few weeks, all three of us have found ourselves with things we wanted to get off our chests — what some might refer to as “bold predictions.” So here we are, calling our shots before the draft gets underway. As is the protocol with bold predictions, we want all of the credit if we’re right and none of the blame if we’re wrong. 

Ethan: McCarthy is this year’s Levis (though he won’t fall out of Round 1)

This 2024 quarterback class is similar to the 2023 group. We have a near-universal top choice (Bryce Young), two solidified top-five picks behind him (C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson) and a wild card (Will Levis). While Levis had his supporters, for most of the draft cycle he was seen as the clear fourth-best prospect of the top four options.

Then, all of a sudden, Levis started getting a ton of hype in the days before the draft. He was reportedly under consideration for the Texans at No. 2 and there were even whispers the Panthers might take him first overall. This coincided with reports that Stroud might slip out of the top five.

Of course, we all know the draft played out. Young, Stroud, and Richardson were top-five selections and Levis fell to the early second round. Turns out, the initial evaluations held true. Levis wasn’t as good a prospect as the others and fell accordingly.

I see something similar playing out this year. Caleb Williams is going to be the No. 1 pick. Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels have been seen as top-five picks since the end of the college football season, but in the last few weeks, J.J. McCarthy has supposedly shot up draft boards right next to them.

In the last week, we’ve had reports Maye might slide on draft night and weird betting odds movement with McCarthy that petered out. It’s eerily similar to what happened last draft cycle and I’m not falling for it.

Williams, Daniels, and Maye are the top prospects in a draft with three quarterback-needy teams picking at the top. McCarthy is less refined and has less experience than they do. He won’t be selected above them, and I’m not even sure he’ll land in the top ten picks. Trades into the top ten are notoriously difficult to pull off. I’m not predicting McCarthy will slip all the way out of the first round like Levis did, but I would expect him to be available at No. 11 when Minnesota is on the clock.

Nate: Rams Draft One Of Top Six Quarterbacks

There has been some buzz about the Rams going quarterback at No. 19 overall with Oregon’s Bo Nix being a name to watch, given that his father has ties to GM Les Snead. I think this is a real possibility worth keeping an eye on, considering Matthew Stafford‘s age and injury history.

The Rams haven’t used a first-round pick since 2016, so I’m sure they’re looking to make it count this year. Maybe they trade back and then target a quarterback, but this is something I’ll be keeping an eye on in the second half of round one.

Logan: There is a trade into the top 10 for a receiver

I wasn’t quite bold enough to put this into my actual mock but I thought long and hard about it. The top three receivers in this class are outstanding. Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. might be No. 1, but LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze are 1B and 1C if that’s the case. All three are worthy of top-five picks in a given year but because of how the board is expected to shake out with three or four quarterbacks, a tackle and perhaps even a defensive player coming off the board to start, one of these wideouts could be available with the seventh, eighth or ninth pick.  

The Titans at No. 7 and the Falcons at No. 8 have already spent significant resources at the receiver position. Tennessee signed Calvin Ridley in free agency this offseason to pair with DeAndre Hopkins. Atlanta signed Darnell Mooney and traded for Rondale Moore to complement an existing skill position group of RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts — all top-ten selections the past three years. 

Both teams could still take a receiver. Titans HC Brian Callahan said earlier this offseason he’s always looking for players that can score touchdowns, and the Falcons have said they’ll take the best player available. But if they go after other needs, offensive tackle for the Titans and defense for the Falcons, those can be addressed further down the board. That’s where a team eyeing a future No. 1 receiver to lead its passing attack could have an opening. The list of teams that could trade up includes, but is not limited to, the Bears, the Jets, the Colts, the Jaguars and the Bills. 

With that long of a list, with how important the receiver position is and with how good the top three are, it feels like there’s a solid chance a team is willing to pay what will surely be an expensive price to trade up. 

Ethan: Kool-Aid McKinstry is selected before teammate Terrion Arnold

Alabama’s starting cornerback duo from the past two seasons are both projected first-round picks. Arnold is expected to compete with Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell to be the first corner taken, while McKinstry is seen as a late first-round guy. But let’s examine these prospects again and compare them head-to-head.

Both players are similar in size, with McKinstry measuring 5-11 and a half and 199 pounds and Arnold checking in at 6-0 and 189. Arnold posted a 4.5-second 40 time at the Combine. McKinstry didn’t run at the Combine due to a foot injury, but posted a 4.47-second 40-time on said injured foot. Arnold’s jumps were slightly better, though again McKinstry was testing on an injured foot.

Since their athletic profiles are strikingly similar, what does their tape say? This is where McKinstry really separates himself. He’s been a stellar player though his three years starting at Alabama, locking down receiver after receiver he’s faced. He’s so good that teams just stopped throwing his way. His tape is a clinic in cornerback play.

Arnold’s tape is also good, but it doesn’t hold a candle to McKinstry’s. He bites on fakes, is over-aggressive and lacks all the polish and refinement McKinstry has to his game. Both prospects are about the same age, but McKinstry has a whole additional year of starting experience to his name.

Just listening to narratives ahead of the draft, Arnold is billed as an athletic freak with crazy upside to grow while McKinstry is viewed as a limited athlete who’s already hit his ceiling. I truly do not understand why this narrative came to be. McKinstry is a significantly better player on tape, they’re the same age, and nearly identical in build and athletic profile.

The NFL isn’t stupid. McKinstry is the better prospect and will be selected first.

Logan: Texas DT Byron Murphy II is the first defensive player drafted

To be fair, this one isn’t nearly as bold as it was a week or two ago. There’s been a ton of buzz around Murphy in the past few days as NFL media have been clued in by team sources about how highly Murphy is rated on their boards. He’s the consensus top defensive tackle prospect and that’s a good place to be right now with how much the position has grown in importance for NFL teams. 

Murphy profiles as a pass-rushing presence at defensive tackle. He’s not that big, at just over 6-foot, barely 300 pounds and just over 32-inch arms. He actually used to play running back while he was growing up until eventually his size pushed his youth coaches to move him to defensive line. That athleticism shows up on the field. Murphy is just plain tough to block. 

Ultimately his place on the board could come down to fit. I have Murphy going to the Bears at No. 9 overall and the first defensive player off the board, specifically because of HC Matt Eberflus‘ desire for a pass-rushing three-technique defensive tackle that Chicago has yet to truly find. Some teams value interior pressure over edge pressure. The Bears did a lot to address their edge rushing group with the trade for Montez Sweat last year, and a lot of people think they’ll go after a bookend across from him. My hunch is that the Bears want to pair Sweat with someone who can flush the quarterback from the middle out to the waiting edge rush. Murphy seems like that guy. 

Nate: Teams Will Shift From BPA To Specific Fits Around Pick 50

Day 2 is the best day of the draft in my opinion and we typically see a strong second-round class with some players dropping to the third round. I do think there will be good prospects available in the second round, but I can see teams shifting toward players who are more specific fits for their system around pick 50 or so.

By that point, it gets a little tricker in matching up specific needs with the best players available so don’t be surprised if there are some surprises in Round 2 and especially Round 3 compared to what the “consensus” might say this year.

Nate: The Mid-Tier EDGE Class Will Produce At Least Three Starters

Edge rusher is widely considered a premium position and you typically need to be well-positioned or aggressive in Round 1 to get them. But I think this year is a little different. There are multiple options available on Day 2 of the draft worth taking chances on this year. I could see at least three, maybe more, of Darius Robinson, Chris Braswell, Marshawn Kneeland, Bralen Trice, Adisa Isaac, Jonah Elliss and Austin Booker being starters at the next level.

Ethan: Xavier Worthy won’t be a first-round pick

Speed sells in the NFL, but even record-breaking, ludicrous speed needs other skills. That’s the Xavier Worthy story. His linear speed is truly insane – his 4.21 40-time set the NFL Combine record.

But he’s not a complete receiver. His routes are limited and often sloppy. He doesn’t have great hands, leading to drops. And he’s very small, only 5-11, 165. He doesn’t have significant play strength and struggles against physical corners.

Some team will be excited to add his speed to their squad, but this likely comes somewhere on Day 2. There are too many talented, explosive receivers in this draft. Worthy will have his fans in draft rooms, but I can’t see him going ahead of wide receivers like Adonai Mitchell, Brian Thomas Jr. or Troy Franklin, all of whom are fighting for spots in Round 1.

Dueling Mock Drafts

As noted at the top, all three of us did final mock drafts this week. The full table is laid out here. Both order and team are noted in the far right column. If one of us projected a trade, that’s noted in a parenthetical next to the player. 

Pick	Ethan	Nate	Logan
1 (CHI)	Caleb Williams	Caleb Williams	Caleb Williams
2 (WAS)	Jayden Daniels	Jayden Daniels	Jayden Daniels
3 (NE)	Drake Maye	Drake Maye	Drake Maye
4 (ARI)	Marvin Harrison Jr.	Marvin Harrison Jr.	Marvin Harrison Jr.
5 (LAC)	Malik Nabers	J.J. McCarthy (MIN)	Joe Alt
6 (NYG)	Rome Odunze	Malik Nabers	Rome Odunze
7 (TEN)	Joe Alt	Joe Alt	J.J. McCarthy (MIN)
8 (ATL)	Dallas Turner	Dallas Turner	Malik Nabers
9 (CHI)	Jared Verse	Rome Odunze	Byron Murphy II
10 (NYJ)	Troy Fautanu	Brock Bowers	Brock Bowers
11 (MIN)	J.J. McCarthy	JC Latham (LAC)	JC Latham (TEN)
12 (DEN)	Brock Bowers	Quinyon Mitchell (PHI)	Dallas Turner (ARI)
13 (LV)	Olu Fashanu	Taliese Fuaga	Quinyon Mitchell
14 (NO)	Taliese Fuaga	Olu Fashanu	Olu Fashanu
15 (IND)	Quinyon Mitchell	Terrion Arnold	Terrion Arnold
16 (SEA)	Cooper DeJean	Byron Murphy II	Cooper DeJean
17 (JAX)	Brian Thomas Jr.	Brian Thomas Jr.	Tyler Guyton (PHI)
18 (CIN)	Amarius Mims	Troy Fautanu	Taliese Fuaga
19 (LAR)	Byron Murphy II	Laiatu Latu	Brian Thomas Jr. (BUF)
20 (PIT)	JC Latham	Tyler Guyton	Troy Fautanu
21 (MIA)	Graham Barton	Jared Verse	Laiatu Latu
22 (PHI)	Kool-Aid McKinstry	Bo Nix (DEN)	Kool-Aid McKinstry (JAX)
23 (MIN)	Johnny Newton	Adonai Mitchell (LAC)	Jared Verse
24 (DAL)	Jackson Powers-Johnson	Graham Barton	Graham Barton
25 (GB)	Tyler Guyton	Amarius Mims	Amarius Mims
26 (TB)	Laiatu Latu	Cooper DeJean	Nate Wiggins
27 (ARI)	Terrion Arnold	Nate Wiggins	Chop Robinson
28 (BUF)	Adonai Mitchell	Xavier Worthy	Xavier Worthy (LAR)
29 (DET)	Nate Wiggins	Chop Robinson	Johnny Newton
30 (BAL)	Troy Franklin	Darius Robinson	Jordan Morgan (WAS)
31 (SF)	Chris Braswell	Johnny Newton	Darius Robinson
32 (KC)	Kingsley Suamataia	Michael Penix Jr. (LV)	Kingsley Suamataia

 

Somewhat surprisingly, there was a lot the three of us agreed on. But there were some key areas we diverged, and it started at No. 5 overall with the Los Angeles Chargers: 

Logan: So gentlemen, No. 5 is the pivot point. We have the full gamut of options here, with Ethan mocking a receiver, me mocking a tackle and Nate mocking a trade down. What pushed you guys in the direction you went? 

Nate: They need help at a number of spots. A trade is an ideal outcome. Latham won’t push Slater off left tackle, has upside to play right tackle and is plug-and-play at guard if need be. Like I said in the mock, I bet Harbaugh opts for the trenches. 

Logan: I agree with you on Harbaugh. I think ultimately Alt will be too good for him to pass on, though there’s a lot of smoke that they like Latham. Figuring out who plays which side between Alt and Slater is a bit of a problem but a good problem to have. They both can do it. 

Ethan: I didn’t do trades in my mock but I don’t think the Chargers will trade out of No. 5 anyway, even though they might want to. Nabers is just too elite of a talent to pass on once you’re in that spot. I agree on Harbaugh, but he’s not the only one in that room.

Nate: The X-factor with LAC to me is how many Michigan guys will Harbs try to get. There are a lot of them and they’re kinda good

Ethan: Blake Corum is already a Charger. 

Logan: The other team we ran through most of the popular scenarios for is the Raiders. What pushed you guys toward a tackle instead of a cornerback?

Nate: Thayer Munford being projected to start at right tackle. 

Ethan: I think the Raiders are taking a QB in the second round, or trading back into the first for one, likely Penix. They’ll wanna protect him, and they have a massive hole at tackle in a draft with some elite options where they’re picking.

Nate: Their corner group needs help too but but it’s better to be bad at corner than going to back to having a terrible offensive line. 

Logan: Great points. The QB angle is one I hadn’t thought of. Seems like none of us bought the Penix/LV smoke in the first round.

Ethan: I think the Penix/Las Vegas angle is as true as the Levis/Tennessee one was last year. Real connection, but they won’t blow up their draft board to get him.

Logan: Speaking of quarterbacks, guys like Adam Schefter and Tom Pelissero have predicted six quarterbacks will go in the first, which I think will tie a record. Nate you seem to be in agreeance with your mock, even though we’ve seen reality not match the hype with where QBs are slotted in the past. What made you make the jump this year?

Nate: In all honesty, I didn’t like the options left for KC at that point and the trade idea ran through my head so I ran with it. Nix and Penix are probably deserving of going Round 2, but assuming teams are rational about QBs isn’t a great assumption. 

Logan: I think Ethan and I can relate there. We both had KC going way off consensus for Suamataia. What was the hardest team to mock for for each of you?

Ethan: Seattle is kinda tricky, they have a pretty strong roster at the key positions. Fautanu is an easy connection but he’s probably off the board by then, and it’s a little early for some of their other good fits. I’ll also shout out Denver and San Francisco as tricky teams to mock for.

Nate: The Bengals. They have guys to start already at OT and DL, which is where the value was at that point in the draft. I don’t love some fits for them but that may not force them to go elsewhere. I wish Hendrickson had made his trade request sooner. San Francisco is tricky. I wanted to give them a corner, but their lesser-heralded guys have actually been pretty good. Their interior OL isn’t amazing but it’s affordable and fine. Another running back? Sure but later on in the draft. 

Logan: When in doubt, going defensive line with the 49ers is a safe bet, and that’s what all three of us did. The Packers and Buccaneers were the hardest ones for me. It feels like GB is going to break some kind of precedent this year. Their biggest needs are linebacker and safety but the value isn’t there in the first round this year. Maybe they won’t care. I gave them a tackle but historically they have waited on the position. They have some young guys at cornerback but I considered that too.

Nate: Sure they haven’t drafted an OT in a while but most times they’re drafting late in Round 1 where you don’t get good OT value. 

Ethan: They need a tackle bad. This is also the first year they don’t have Bakhtiari “coming back from injury.”

Logan: I think they’re in pretty solid shape with Tom and Walker/Dillard but it’s definitely a place they could upgrade and there are some interesting players left with a lot of upside. As for the Bucs, I just don’t have a good read on what they’ll do. Defense?

Nate: To me, they have some guys, but could still use depth at some key spots. I’ve considered EDGE for them. The value isn’t bad and they could keep building it back into a strength for the team. 

Logan: Alrighty let’s wrap this up. Which player did you mock too low? Which did you mock too high?

Ethan: Think I let Byron Murphy fall a little too far. I also might’ve had Jared Verse going a little high, though I do think he’s worthy of that pick.

Nate: The guys I’m probably too high on are: Adonai Mitchell and McCarthy. Possibly too low on Laiatu Latu. 

Logan: You also left McKinstry out of Round 1. 

Nate: No. 33. Is that too low? 

Logan: Ethan thinks so…

Ethan: How did I become a truther for the Alabama guy? Former 5 stars and preseason projected top 10 picks aren’t supposed to need banner carrying…

Logan: I mentioned this, but I contemplated leaving Nate Wiggins out of Round 1. His weight will take him off some team’s first-round boards. As for a player I’m too high on, Nate you charitably said earlier I had an “interesting” mock and “didn’t play it safe.” Which pick did I go too far out on the limb for?

Nate: Most of them. 

Ethan: Guyton over Fuaga is crazy. He’d be there at 22!

Nate: I would not be surprised if a team was all-in on Guyton.

Logan: To be honest, I just wanted to get him matched up with the Eagles and there is a whole row of tackle-needy teams they could need to leapfrog. 

Nate: Odunze over Nabers and Murphy to CHI also stand out to me. 

Logan: Odunze is awesome. I think he’s an easier projection off the field than Nabers and that could matter for NYG. Murphy is my bold call but there are some breadcrumbs about the Bears wanting a disruptive pass-rushing DT that go back a few years to trying to sign Larry Ogunjobi.

Ethan: I’m didn’t mock it myself, but I don’t think it’s crazy the Giants take Odunze over Nabers. 

Nate: It would not be a bad pick. 

Logan: Alrighty dudes, this has been a good time. May all your bold calls come true tonight and your favorite teams draft an All-Pro.