2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Week 16

Here’s a look at the NFL playoff picture, along with the most important games of the week and the storylines to watch as teams jockey for position. 

Resources:

• NFL tiebreakers
• Playoff probabilities via the Athletic

Current Standings

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (11-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
4. Houston Texans (9-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
6. Denver Broncos (9-5)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)

In the hunt

1. Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
2. Miami Dolphins (6-8)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (12-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
4. Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
5. Minnesota Vikings (11-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (10-4)
7. Washington Commanders (9-5)

In the hunt

1. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
2. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
3. Arizona Cardinals (7-7)
4. San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
5. Dallas Cowboys (6-8)

Storylines To Watch

Lions Attrition

Injuries are a part of life in the NFL and there’s usually a healthy overlap at the end of the season between the best teams and the healthiest teams. The Lions have done about as good a job as any team of adapting to the injury blows but the attrition is starting to become overwhelming. Detroit lost for just the second time all season in a shootout with the Bills this past Sunday and it was costly in more areas than just the standings. Starting RB David Montgomery (MCL), starting DT Alim McNeill (ACL), starting CB Carlton Davis (broken jaw) and backup CB Khalil Dorsey (fractured leg) all suffered major injuries. 

Davis might be able to play if the Lions make the NFC title game, but as the Lions wrestle to hold onto the No. 1 seed and first place in the NFC North, these injuries are just an added obstacle on top of the tidal wave that’s already hit the team, especially on defense. The list of Lions players on injured reserve includes: 

• DE Aidan Hutchinson
• LB Alex Anzalone
• DE Marcus Davenport
• DE John Cominsky
• LB Derrick Barnes
• LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin
• LB Malcolm Rodriguez
• CB Ennis Rakestraw
• S Ifeatu Melifonwu
• WR Kalif Raymond

Add in the injuries to McNeill and Davis, and Detroit is down to just a few healthy starters on that side of the ball. It’s a good thing their offense has remained one of the best in the league because the Lions might need to win some shootouts down the stretch to avoid losing homefield advantage, which would be huge for Detroit going into the postseason. But even then, the loss of Montgomery potentially looms large.

More NFC West Plot Twists?

With the Seahawks’ loss to the Packers on Sunday night and the Rams’ win over the 49ers, Los Angeles has now moved into first place in the NFC West. All four teams in the division have been in first place at one point or another, and the race remains open heading into the final three games of the season. Even the last-place 49ers aren’t eliminated yet. 

Both Seattle and Los Angeles are tied at 8-6 but the Rams have the head-to-head tiebreaker and the advantage of an easier schedule before both teams meet again in Week 18. The Cardinals have a chance to make up ground, however, with games against the Panthers and a head-to-head with the Rams. And if somehow two of those three teams tie in one of their games, it gets interesting for the 49ers. 

The Rams have the pole position but it would not shock me at all if there was another plot twist or two in this division before the season ends.

Games Of The Week

Here are some of the most notable and relevant games from this upcoming week’s slate that will impact how the playoff picture unfolds. 

Vikings at Seahawks

There’s no rest at all for the Seahawks after getting punched in the beak by the Packers, as Minnesota heads to Seattle next looking to capitalize on the sudden vulnerability of the division-leading Lions. The Vikings are four-point favorites right now but that number will climb if the Seahawks have to start backup QB Sam Howell, who was abysmal when he had to enter Sunday night’s game when starting QB Geno Smith suffered a knee injury. 

If Smith plays — and the early word is that he avoided a major injury — then the Seahawks have a shot. But even with Smith their margin for error has been tight this year and the Vikings look like conference heavyweights. Minnesota’s pass rush against the Seahawks offensive line is not a good matchup, and Vikings QB Sam Darnold is on a heater. 

Broncos at Chargers

Both of these teams are well on track for the playoffs right now barring something shocking but this game is important because it could decide who will be the No. 6 seed and who will be No. 7. That matters because the No. 7 seed will most likely face either the Bills or the Chiefs, whichever team misses out on the No. 1 seed. Meanwhile the No. 6 seed will, in all likelihood, play the winner of the AFC North in the No. 3 seed. There are no cupcake matchups in the playoffs but the Bills look like Super Bowl contenders and both the Steelers and Ravens have been gettable this year. 

Steelers at Ravens

Pittsburgh is holding onto a one-game lead over the Ravens and beat Baltimore earlier this season. If they complete the sweep, they’d be in great position even with the Chiefs on deck. If they lose, they’d still be in first place due to a better conference record than Baltimore but their margin for error would shrink considerably. Obviously this is also a big opportunity for the Ravens to assert themselves as contenders with games against Pittsburgh and Houston in a four-day span. 

Texans at Chiefs

Houston clinched the AFC South and most likely will be the No. 4 seed, though there’s a path to leapfrogging the AFC North winner for the No. 3 seed if they take care of business this Saturday against Kansas City, then on Wednesday in the Christmas matchup against Baltimore. Still, that could be a distinction without a difference. The Chiefs are trying to fend off the Bills for the No. 1 seed and a bye, which might be big enough stakes to play QB Patrick Mahomes in a game he might otherwise rest due to his ankle injury — and frankly Mahomes might be hurt bad enough to rest either way.  

Eagles at Commanders

The Eagles have a commanding — hee hee — lead over Washington for the NFC East crown and can lock up the division with this win. It also is important as Philadelphia chases the Lions for the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. For Washington, the stakes are just as massive. The Commanders need to hold off competition for the final wildcard spot in the NFC, as there are a handful of teams between the NFC West and NFC South within striking distance if Washington falters. 

Perhaps just as importantly, Washington didn’t measure up to the Eagles in the first matchup. Even though their rebuild has gone ahead of schedule this year, they can make a statement about where the team is heading into the postseason as more than just a fun story.