2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Key Storylines For Week 14

December 3, 2024

As the weather gets colder, the playoff race in the NFL starts to heat up. The postseason doesn’t start until January but the games between now and then will take on increased importance.

Here’s a look at the NFL playoff picture, along with the most important games of the week and the storylines to watch as teams jockey for position.

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Current Standings

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)
Buffalo Bills (10-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
Houston Texans (8-5)
Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Denver Broncos (7-5)

In the hunt

Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
Miami Dolphins (5-7)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)

NFC

Detroit Lions (11-1)
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Green Bay Packers (9-3)
Washington Commanders (8-5)

In the hunt

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
Dallas Cowboys (5-7)

Storylines To Watch

Bills & Eagles Catching Fire

While every game in the NFL matters, it’s more important to be playing your best ball in December and January than it is in September and October. Case in point: the Bills and Eagles.

Philadelphia was 2-2 entering a Week 5 bye and the vibe was eerily close to last year when the team melted down the stretch after a 10-1 start. Now the Eagles have won eight straight and are breathing hard down the necks of the Lions for the top seed in the NFC. Buffalo was 3-2 with back-to-back losses to the Ravens and Texans before building their current seven-game winning streak, which includes a victory over the Chiefs that will be pivotal to potentially earning home-field advantage in the AFC if Kansas City slips up again.

Both teams look like Super Bowl contenders right now. Both entered the year with embattled coaches who have shown they still know how to push the right buttons and were written off too early by some. The two teams are winning through remarkably similar formulas too — punishing offensive lines and potent ground attacks accelerated by the mobile talents of their starting quarterbacks.

Sustaining that success into December will be critical but the Eagles and Bills are making a case that they should be right in the mix as Super Bowl favorites along with the Lions and Chiefs.

Another Falcons Collapse?

Atlanta’s loss to the Chargers coming out of the bye marked the third straight L for the Falcons, and their 2.5 game lead over the Buccaneers for the NFC South has dissolved to just a half game with tiebreakers now that both squads are 6-6. Veteran QB Kirk Cousins’ four-interception performance adds to the sense of a meltdown, which this franchise is all too familiar with.

There’s still a whole month left in the season and time for the Falcons to turn things around, but this is not the kind of season anyone in Atlanta envisioned. The Falcons were borderline cocky about their belief that big things were in store for them in 2024, with big-ticket additions in free agency like Cousins and an all-star coaching staff that was trumpeted as being so deep it could withstand the inevitable poaching that would occur after the year.

Instead the offense is still navigating growing pains three months into the season, struggling to maximize Cousins and the talent that’s on that side of the ball, while the defense has been mostly toothless. Atlanta fortunately scraped out a sweep in two close games against the Buccaneers — a flawed team yet one that has consistently punched above its weight class and fought through adversity this year — but has squandered most of its margin for error.

Next up? The Vikings and a return to Minnesota for Cousins.

Drama-Free Wildcard Race?

With Denver’s win over the Browns Monday night, every wildcard team has at least a two-game lead over the next closest competitor on the bubble. It’s an uncommonly stacked year for wildcard teams thanks to some extremely competitive divisions. Right now, the AFC North, NFC North and AFC West would all have three teams in the playoff field.

It’s bad news for the teams on the outside looking in right now. Teams like the Bucs, Rams and Colts have a better chance of overtaking the leaders in the division to get in the playoffs than they do of standing out in a stacked wildcard field. It also makes it much more challenging for Cinderella hopefuls like the Dolphins and Bengals to run the table. No one ahead of them is giving up any ground.

Games Of The Week

Here are some of the most notable and relevant games from this upcoming week’s slate that will impact how the playoff picture unfolds.

Packers at Lions

Detroit’s rise in the past couple of years has rekindled this rivalry and infused it with a new intensity. The stakes in this game will be significant as the Lions try to fend off the Eagles for the top seed in the NFC despite mounting injuries on defense, as well as hold onto first place in the NFC North. The Packers would still be a game and a half behind the Lions with a win but it would be a huge step toward possibly catching them.

Seahawks at Cardinals

Seattle eked out a 16-6 win when these two squads played just two weeks ago that flipped them in the division standings and put the Seahawks in pole position, for now. Arizona suffered a close setback to the Vikings and the Seahawks scratched out another close win against the Jets, but this game would still be for the lead in the NFC West because Arizona would own a better divisional record with a victory and both would be tied at 7-6.

That makes this a crucial game. With a win Seattle can build valuable cushion in what’s been an intensely competitive divisional race to this point. Assuming the Rams can’t topple the Bills, the Seahawks would be 8-6 compared to 6-7 for both Arizona and Los Angeles. That’s a margin the Seahawks will badly need with games against the Packers and Vikings next after this.

A win for the Cardinals would put them back in first place and in a great spot with games against the Patriots and Panthers — a much easier slate than Seattle’s. They still have to take care of business but that lull in the schedule also gives them a chance to remain in the mix heading into back-to-back games against the Rams and 49ers to close the season.

Falcons at Vikings

As noted above, the Falcons badly need to stop the bleeding and get back in the win column. It would also be rewarding for Cousins to get a win in his return to Minnesota after leaving this offseason. Unfortunately, the Vikings are a stiff, stiff test. Cousins got a good look at DC Brian Flores’ defense in practice last year, which might help him a bit, but the Falcons will rightfully be underdogs in this game. An upset victory would go a long way in starting to turn the season around.

Chargers at Chiefs

The Chiefs have been flirting with disaster against poor competition the past two weeks and have needed until the final play to beat Raiders and Panthers teams with a combined five wins on the year. Kansas City has also largely dominated the Chargers with QB Patrick Mahomes, including a 17-10 win earlier this season. The Chargers can establish themselves further as a legitimate factor in the AFC with a win, while the Chiefs need to continue winning to hold off the Bills. This version of the Chiefs needs homefield advantage at Arrowhead Stadium more than others.

Bills at Rams

After dismantling the 49ers, the Bills should be heavy favorites to do the same to another flawed NFC West team. They’ll have to go on the road this time, however, and the Rams are a little bit healthier and better functioning than San Francisco at the moment. Buffalo’s one of the hottest teams in football but this is still a big game to ensure it keeps pace in the AFC. As for the Rams, an upset would be a huge confidence boost and keep them right in the thick of things in the NFC West.

Bengals at Cowboys

Neither of these teams has been mathematically eliminated yet and whichever wins will be technically alive for one more week. But practically speaking, both teams are past the point of no return when it comes to hopes for this season. That point will just be driven home extra for the loser and put off for another week for the winner.