The 2026 NFL season kicks off tonight with a rematch of this past Super Bowl, setting the Patriots against the Seahawks once again, only this time in Seattle. It might be a Wednesday instead of a Thursday, but the opener is always an opportunity to get off some bold takes about the upcoming season. 

In the interest of accountability, here’s last year’s bold takes column and the results: 

• The Commanders take a step back (Washington sagged to 5-12. Check.)
• Jaxson Dart plays sooner than you think (I wrote that Dart watch would probably start in Week 5. He replaced veteran QB Russell Wilson as the starter in Week 4.)
• Colts & Dolphins end up drafting top 10 (Dubbed these two charter members of the All-Bad Vibes team. Miami started 2-7 before salvaging a 7-10 record. The Colts were 8-2 before skidding to 8-9. The Dolphins got the No. 11 slot, the Colts were No. 16. Miss but directionally I was on the right path)
• Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson wins DPOY (Myles Garrett set the sack record and got all 50 first-place votes. Hutchinson finished fifth in the balloting)
• At least one hyped up breakout team flops (Really went out on a limb here, but I did write that if I had to pick one, it would be the Buccaneers, and they collapsed down the stretch to lose the NFC South)
• The Raiders defense will be cheeks (Las Vegas finished 25th in scoring defense and 14th in total defense. Bad but not quite “cheeks.” That would be the offense which was painfully inept, something I didn’t see coming)

I’m not sure I would have been lighting up First Take with any of these opinions but they were all generally either going out on a limb or against the consensus. This year, I don’t have a quiver full of flaming takes either, but I do have some strong intuition pulling me toward a handful of stances. 

The Cowboys will be GOOD

Jerry Jones — part-time owner/GM of the Dallas Cowboys, full-time carnival barker for “America’s Team” — has been extolling his squad’s Super Bowl capabilities. The thing is…I might be buying what he’s selling. 

I know I’m setting myself up for a rug pull of epic proportions but Jones is right; there is a ton to like about the Cowboys in 2026. They return virtually the entire offense from last year, a unit that finished No. 2 in yards (over 6,600 on the season) and No. 7 in scoring. Dak Prescott led the NFL with 404 completions and racked up over 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Both WRs George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb topped 1,000 yards, the offensive line paved the way for RB Javonte Williams to top 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns, and supporting players like TE Jake Ferguson, WR Ryan Flournoy and WR KaVontae Turpin all stepped up into useful roles. 

Barring a rash of injuries, there’s every reason to expect the Cowboys to pick up where they left off. Everyone will be in Year 2 under HC Brian Schottenheimer as the play-caller, and he was on the staff for years before that. Pickens is back on the franchise tag, and while there were concerns about how the mercurial wideout would react to not having a long-term deal, he has seemingly been completely on board. 

There are some offensive line questions but this is essentially the same starting five as last year and it didn’t hold Dallas back. If anything, there’s hope that some young players like LT Tyler Guyton and G Tyler Booker make strides forward and improve. They won’t have their best player, G Tyler Smith, for the first four weeks of the season, but backup G T.J. Bass is a solid depth option who can keep the team afloat until Smith returns. 

The true questions are on defense. The Cowboys missed the playoffs last year because their atrocious defense completely cancelled out their explosive offense. Dallas surrendered 511 points — most in the NFL. It’s probably not a stretch to say that if they had been 22nd instead of 32nd, they would have made the playoffs. 

Naturally, most of the Cowboys’ offseason efforts were targeted toward improving their defense, starting with the hire of DC Christian Parker from the Eagles. People around the league absolutely rave about Parker, who has sharpened his craft under defensive coaching legend Vic Fangio. Parker’s whip-smart and a grinder with strong communication skills. The early reviews in Dallas have been similarly glowing, and it’s safe to say Parker will be a significant coaching upgrade over former DC Matt Eberflus. 

Coaches need players, though. Dallas didn’t do Eberflus any favors by trading away Micah Parsons on the eve of the season and the work of restocking the talent began ahead of last year’s trade deadline with the move for DT Quinnen Williams. The overhaul continued this offseason. Dallas added OLB Rashan Gary and LB Dee Winters via trade. They signed S Jalen Thompson, CB Cobie Durant, DT Otito Ogbonnia and OLB Von Miller. They also got first-round S Caleb Downs, first-round OLB Malachi Lawrence and third-round LB Jaishawn Barham in the draft — all of whom are expected to play pretty significant roles. 

Generally speaking, the Cowboys are expected to be better on defense (it would be tough to be worse), with the consensus seemingly falling around the low teens/early 20s range — average to below-average. I think there’s a sneaky chance the Cowboys could be even better, though. 

Players like CB DaRon Bland and LB DeMarvion Overshown were hurt for chunks of last season and are big-time playmakers when dialed in. Dallas has a couple of Day 2 picks from last year in OLB Donovan Ezeiruaku and CB Shavon Revel who could take a leap. Miller isn’t a full-time player but he adds real juice to the pass rush as a closer. The Cowboys go four deep in this room and could add even more ahead of the trade deadline. 

And the early returns on Downs, their first pick, are already tremendous. It’s not unique for teams to rave about players they just drafted, but the quotes about Downs so far are just different. Everyone with the team raves about his maturity, smarts and instincts. He’ll be the slot defender this year, putting him in the middle of the action on most plays and giving him a chance to make a huge impact. 

I won’t go so far as to say the Cowboys will be a top-10 defense. I think they might be knocking on that door sooner than people think, though. And if you combine that with a stellar offense, you have a recipe for a team that has a real-deal chance to be a contender. 

The Giants will be BAD

Landing HC John Harbaugh was a big coup for the Giants this offseason, as evidenced by the breathless chronicling of their pursuit from both local and national reporters. His resume after 18 years in Baltimore was exemplary and he brings a level of credibility that New York hasn’t seen since Tom Coughlin was stalking the sideline. Naturally, the hire was met with a ton of optimism. 

That optimism didn’t necessarily crescendo over the course of the offseason. The Giants were active but their most notable departure (DT Dexter Lawrence) outweighed many of the moves they made like signing TE Isaiah Likely, CB Greg Newsome and LB Tremaine Edmunds. Harbaugh has been cautious not to promise too much to the fanbase, though it’s clear everyone involved expects to win more than the Giants have the past decade. 

New York is generally viewed as a team that will be frisky but is still a year of roster-building and development away from truly contending. The Giants have a budding young nucleus of skill talent that includes WR Malik Nabers, RB Cam Skattebo and Dart, who impressed a ton of people in his debut season. The offensive line is above average and the edge rushing room is ferocious. Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux (with some moonlighting from first-round LB Arvell Reese) will probably single-handedly win a game or two for the Giants. 

I have concerns, though. I think a lot of the existing talent on the roster has been overrated and the modest initial expectations for Harbaugh’s Giants (their betting line is 7.5 wins) are reflective of people catching on to that. While the pass rush looks great, the run defense is shaping up to be a major Achilles’ heel that could neuter some of that effectiveness, and there are concerns in the secondary too. All of those young players on offense have injury concerns, and the receiver room outside of Nabers is dismal. 

My biggest issue with the team, though, is the offensive coaching staff. Harbaugh wanted to bring Todd Monken with him from Baltimore but he landed the Browns’ head coaching gig. He pivoted to former Chiefs OC Matt Nagy, who Kansas City allowed to walk after three years to “pursue head coaching opportunities.” Even if that’s completely true, it’s a little telling the Chiefs wanted to shake things up, and obviously Nagy’s previous stint with the Bears as the head coach and play-caller didn’t end well. 

Harbaugh also hired Greg Roman to the staff in a senior role, and the indications so far are that Roman has had a significant impact on the construction of the system. Roman’s run game designs have always been strong and he was the play-caller for both Harbaugh and his brother Jim across several stints with multiple teams. However, the passing side of the coin has always been underdeveloped, to put it charitably. There was a reason both Harbaughs decided that in order to maximize elite talents like Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert, Roman had to go. 

In theory, a pass-first coach like Nagy is a good partner with Roman to cover each other’s blind spots and create a system that can highlight all of Dart’s strengths. In practice, though, it’s tough to shoehorn together different coaching philosophies. More often than not, it blows up catastrophically. In 2023, the Panthers tried to meld HC Frank Reich’s West Coast scheme with trendy young OC Thomas Brown and his version of the McVay offense. In 2025, the Raiders dropped OC Chip Kelly into a staff filled with HC Pete Carroll acolytes who were used to enacting Carroll’s specific vision for how an offense should be run. 

Disaster would be a charitable description of the offenses in both seasons. Interestingly enough, in both the 2023 bold predictions and the 2025 edition, linked at the top of this article, I was high on both teams. I thought the 2023 Panthers were dark horses to win the NFC South, and I thought the Raiders’ offense would be frisky in 2025. 

Perhaps I’m pattern-matching to the wrong thing, but the Giants’ coaching situation on offense reminds me of those teams. It’s tough because I like Harbaugh and believe he brings a lot of value to a team in a vacuum. But even great coaches aren’t immune from bad decisions, and I think the current offensive setup could be brutal. 

It would be a shock if the Giants were bad enough to get the No. 1 pick like the Panthers and Raiders. But I have sources with Long Island roots who wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Jets (preseason betting line of 5.5 wins) finish with a better record than the Giants (7.5 over/under). 

The Packers will miss the playoffs

The Packers are generally viewed as one of the better-run teams in the league. They draft well and HC Matt LaFleur is a respected offensive mind. The team transitioned from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love without really skipping much of a beat, which is an impressive feat. Green Bay has made the playoffs for three straight seasons since handing Love the keys.

Cracks have started to show up, though. The fanbase is losing patience with LaFleur because the Packers haven’t won the NFC North since 2021 or advanced past the divisional round since 2020. There was real heat about his job security before he and GM Brian Gutekunst signed extensions to prevent a lame duck season. 

And while the Packers are one of the deeper teams in the league overall, there are a few places where they are unnaturally precarious going into 2026. On paper, this is the worst offensive line the team has fielded in a while. They are breaking in a brand-new starting left tackle, RT Zach Bako-Bewele is coming off a torn patellar and doesn’t seem to be 100 percent yet, and there will be a new starter at right guard. Left guard Aaron Banks is banged up and didn’t play all that well in his debut with the team last year as a big-ticket free agent signing. 

Green Bay can lean on its history of developing quality offensive linemen to reassure fans. But at running back, where Josh Jacobs faces an uncertain future after being placed on the commissioner’s exempt list due to charges of domestic violence, there are a ton of questions. The Packers have MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson. Lloyd has played one game in two seasons because of repeated injuries. Brooks is decent in a No. 3 role but might be in over his head beyond that. Johnson was dumped by the Steelers after just one year as a third-round pick because he was so bad as a rookie. 

For as much as LaFleur has wanted to lean on the running game the past couple of years, this is a bad spot to be weak at. If the offensive line is shaky, Love is going to be put into a lot of challenging situations. I think he’s up for the task more often than not, but that increases the margin for error for the Packers and they already play in one of the toughest divisions in the league. 

On the other side of the ball, the Packers have high hopes for new DC Jonathan Gannon, as the defensive coaching has been suspect throughout LaFleur’s tenure. But Gannon will have to work around not having OLB Micah Parsons for at least four games, and potentially not having him at full strength for longer. Green Bay is also revamping its cornerback room, adding Benjamin St-Juste and second-rounder Brandon Cisse to challenge incumbents Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine. 

The pass rush and secondary are symbiotic. A good pass rush makes life easier for the secondary because it forces bad throws and prevents the defense from having to cover for too long. A good secondary can force quarterbacks to hold the ball long enough for the pass rush to get home. But if neither side is holding up their end of the bargain, it can get really challenging really quickly for a defense. 

There’s definitely a world where the stars align for the Packers. There’s talent on the roster and a lot of “good” players. If a few of those take a step forward and become great, Green Bay could look a lot like last year’s Seahawks squad. I think there are too many “ifs” to bank on, though. 

The winner of the Arch Manning sweepstakes is…no one

Get ready for tanking to be a big conversation in the second half of the season, as big as it’s ever been in the NFL. This 2027 quarterback class has a ton of depth and the potential for a handful of first-round prospects to emerge. There are already a solid number of teams that seem to be preparing themselves to get into position to snatch one, including the Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns, Jets and more. 

Right at the top, if he puts it all together this coming collegiate season, is Texas QB Arch Manning. Grandson of Archie, son of Arch, nephew of Peyton and Eli, Arch isn’t a finished product but he has a chance to join that rare air of elite prospect thanks to his pedigree, feel for the position and terrific physical tools. There will be other first-round quarterbacks but I don’t think any of them have the ceiling of Manning. 

But will he declare? I have some doubts. Manning was technically eligible this past year as a redshirt sophomore but there was never any doubt about him returning to Texas for a second year as a starter. Loyalty was a big thing for him in his recruitment process, and he leaned heavily on his uncles for guidance through the process. Both Peyton and Eli started three seasons in college. This will be Arch’s second. 

Perhaps if he wins a Heisman and a national title, there won’t be anything left to do at the college level and Manning will declare as a junior. But a few different reporters have already floated the idea of Manning returning in 2027, and it wouldn’t be without precedent. Andrew Luck chose to stay for another season at Stanford instead of declaring for the 2011 draft as a junior. It should also be noted the Mannings have some history of trying to steer their future, and if they don’t like the teams at the top of the order in 2027, they can play the return-to-school card. 

Ultimately, I would short the idea that Manning is a lock to declare for this upcoming class. 

Bonus quick hits

These aren’t necessarily sweeping enough to be bold predictions — though there’s a hot take or two in here — but these are a few other tidbits I feel strong enough to put in print ahead of the upcoming season

Seattle might have a kicking problem

Seahawks K Jason Myers has led the NFL in field goal attempts for two of the past three seasons and has two Pro Bowls under his belt for his career. He’s firmly entrenched as one of the better kickers in the league. However, the 35-year-old was shockingly bad this preseason. Myers was 2-5 on field goal attempts and 2-4 on extra points. 

It may have been just the preseason, but preseason or not, Myers’ job description doesn’t change that much. This is an under-the-radar factor to watch for the Seahawks this year. Kickers aren’t immune to aging even if they have more longevity than most positions. He’s also in the final year of his contract, so the Seahawks have less invested in him than you might think. 

The best running back on the Giants’ roster is named Najee Harris

I’ll admit this is a bit of a scorcher. But I also think it’s defensible. The Giants clearly think Harris brings something to the roster they didn’t have with Tyrone Tracy or Devin Singletary, otherwise they wouldn’t have signed him. The former first-round pick is an enormous runner at 6-1 and a listed 240, had four straight 1,000-yard seasons before last year and is a viable pass protector and pass catcher, too. 

As far as Harris over Skattebo, if Harris wasn’t coming off a torn Achilles, I don’t think it would be close. Skattebo is a fan favorite because of how hard he runs, but he’s smaller, slower, was drafted later than Harris (indicating the NFL didn’t think he was as talented) and is coming off a major injury himself. He’s younger and has less mileage but Harris is far more proven as an NFL player. I think Harris could take over this backfield by the end of the season. 

The Browns will bench Deshaun Watson in Week 3

The Browns have two tough road games to start the season in Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, and Monken acknowledged that was a factor in giving the veteran Watson the nod over QB Shedeur Sanders. From an operational aspect (getting out of the huddle, motions, checks and audibles), Watson is further along than Sanders and better prepared for what those defenses will throw at the Browns. 

In Week 3, the Browns come back home to Cleveland for their opener, though. Watson’s verbal jousting with the fans at the end of the preseason showed how untenable his standing is at the top of the depth chart unless he plays a hell of a lot better than he has so far. Odds are the Browns will be 0-2 going into that game against the Panthers. If Watson struggles against a Carolina team with modest expectations and a defense that, frankly, is still rebuilding, it will be really tough for Monken to justify his spot in the lineup. 

That could also be enough time for Sanders to make up ground and improve, and a big chunk of this season ought to be dedicated to evaluating his potential anyway before the team likely drafts another potential starter in 2027. 

When will the rookies start? 

Generally the rule is first-round quarterbacks start sooner rather than later, as teams are eager to see their investment and there’s a school of thought that the only way to get better is with reps. That’s true but there are also prominent examples of quarterbacks who benefited from time on the sidelines watching and learning before being pushed into the lineup. 

Both the Raiders with No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza and the Rams with No. 13 pick Ty Simpson will be taking the latter approach. Simpson very well could not take a snap this season, as the Rams seem intent on redshirting him behind Stetson Bennett who got the nod as Matthew Stafford’s backup. Mendoza should play at some point but the Raiders seem committed to giving veteran QB Kirk Cousins a real run under center. 

Here’s my best guess for when we’ll see Mendoza, along with a couple other notable rookies: 

Mendoza: Week 12

Week 1 can be weird, but the Raiders should be able to handle the Dolphins and open the season on a high note. From there, they play at the Chargers, at the Saints, then home against the Chiefs. I think there’s a reasonable chance the Raiders can be 2-2 through that stretch, which should keep the noise around Cousins’ job security low. 

From there, there’s a tough stretch against the Patriots, Bills and Rams that will probably drop the Raiders to 2-5 heading into a Week 8 road tilt against the Jets. That’s the first point to watch for Mendoza, as New York is a manageable opponent. The Raiders’ Week 9 opponent, the 49ers, is also manageable from an opposing defense perspective, giving Las Vegas a little bit of a runway. 

But if the Raiders are still concerned about Mendoza’s readiness or the supporting cast around him, the Week 10 and Week 11 back-to-back against the Seahawks and on the road against the Broncos is imposing. Those teams are capable of putting on the type of beatdown the Raiders want to avoid as much as possible for their rookie passer. 

There aren’t true cupcakes in the NFL like in college football, but compared to Seattle and Denver, a Week 12 game against the Browns (albeit in Cleveland) is much more of a walk in the park. The Raiders would have their bye after that, followed by three straight home games in the final five and contests against the Titans and Cardinals. Given what the Raiders have said and indicated about how they want to approach Mendoza’s development, that feels like the target to me. 

Cardinals third-round QB Carson Beck: Week 12

Arizona’s got a brutal schedule and there’s a strong chance the Cardinals could be winless deep into November. Consider: 

1. @ Chargers
2. Seahawks
3. @ 49ers
4. @ Giants
5. Lions
6. @ Rams
7. Broncos
8. @ Cowboys
9. @ Seahawks
10. Rams
11. @ Chiefs

At some point, the logical move for the Cardinals is to put Beck in the lineup so they can evaluate him before they spend more draft capital on another quarterback next year. In an ideal world, teams try to wait for a softer landing to onboard a rookie quarterback, either an easier opponent or coming off a bye or mini-bye following a Thursday game. 

Week 4 against the Giants would qualify but that’s too early in the season for the Cardinals to give up on veteran QB Jacoby Brissett in all likelihood. Things don’t let up until a Week 12 home game against the Commanders, and that’s my hunch for when the Cardinals will start looking hard at giving Beck some run. The Eagles in Week 13 are a tough matchup but that game is at home at least, as are five of the final six. The Cardinals have their bye in Week 14 and close out the season against the Jets, Saints, Raiders and 49ers — quite manageable for a rookie. 

Jets fourth-round QB Cade Klubnik: Week 15

Klubnik is the primary backup for the Jets, so he’s an injury away from seeing a ton of playing time. However, if Geno Smith stays healthy all season, it would still make sense for the Jets to give Klubnik some run when they’re eliminated from playoff contention, just to evaluate and to give him the reps. The Jets take on the Cardinals in Week 15 which gives Klubnik a chance to build a little confidence before the Patriots, Vikings and Bills to finish out the year on a gauntlet.