Six Bold Predictions For 2023 Season

It’s finally here. 

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is set to kick off tonight with the Chiefs and the Lions, ending what always feels like an interminably long offseason for the football-obsessed. Sooner or later, we’ll start to have answers to all the questions and storylines we’ve been following over the past few months — and plenty of them won’t be what we expect. 

What better time to drop an NFL Bold Predictions article? The goal is to try to go out on a limb and and stay one step ahead of some of the wild curves the 2023 season will inevitably take. Some of these I’ve been work-shopping all offseason, tweaking as new information comes in. Inevitably, though, a few of them are going to make me look silly. 

But hey, a few of these might hit…  

1 – Jets miss the playoffs

The hype for the Jets is easy to understand. This team had a top-five defense last year and some exciting young talent on offense. Add Aaron Rodgers — a future Hall of Famer and one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever play the position — to the mix and it’s easy to see why the conversation in New York is centered around a Super Bowl run. 

Other teams in recent years have followed this same formula of adding an accomplished veteran quarterback to a team that’s viewed as already having a solid foundation. The 2020 Buccaneers and 2021 Rams won the Super Bowl this way. It didn’t go nearly so well for the 2022 Broncos or the 2022 Colts or even the 2022 Rams. 

One of the common threads in the teams that flopped is the offensive line. Denver had a myriad of other issues on the offensive side of the ball but the offensive line certainly wasn’t a strength. The Rams were wrecked by injuries while the Colts just underperformed. Both were among the worst units in the league. If there’s an Achilles heel for the Jets, it’s the offensive line. 

The bones of the unit are solid, with the three interior spots in decent shape between guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Laken Tomlinson and either veteran Connor McGovern or second-rounder Joe Tippman. Tomlinson didn’t play great in 2022 but that seemed like an aberration after a string of solid seasons. Tackle is the big trouble spot. The Jets’ bookends are 38-year-old Duane Brown who missed most of training camp while recovering from shoulder surgery and former first-round OT Mekhi Becton who has played one game in the past two seasons and is shifting to right tackle. 

If Brown and Becton stay healthy, the Jets could be fine. Talent isn’t the issue with either of them. But staying healthy is a huge if for those particular players given their histories. And if they miss time, the Jets’ depth is in rough shape. New York would be turning to Billy Turner and Max Mitchell. Offensive line depth is a scarce commodity, so the Jets aren’t necessarily unique in having a major dropoff to their backup tackles. But they’re taking a gamble on the health of their starters that other teams with similarly lofty aspirations are not. 

We can poke more holes. The Jets replaced OC Mike LaFleur — a potential future head coach and a well-regarded branch off the noted Shanahan tree of offensive playcallers — with former Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett. It’s a big reason the Jets were an appealing destination for Rodgers, as he’s particularly close to Hackett. The veteran quarterback will have a huge say in how the offense runs as well. But it’s worth pointing out that when Hackett has been a full-time play-caller, the results have been mixed. There was a one-year explosion in 2017 with the Jaguars when the team was No. 5 in scoring, but in Hackett’s other seasons behind the mic his offenses never ranked higher than 18th in points or 19th in yards. 

There will also be a transition period as Rodgers and his supporting cast learn each other, and for a quarterback as particular as Rodgers that’s not something to just brush over. New York brought in WRs Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb to be familiar faces and accelerate that transition for their teammates but both players also have specific limitations that factored into Green Bay’s issues on offense in 2022. If Rodgers and budding star WR Garrett Wilson hit it off, this might not matter. It’s something to file away and remember, though, if the team starts slow. 

While a lot of prognosticators are expecting the Jets to pick up where they left off on defense, it’s worth noting that sustaining a strong defense is a lot harder in the NFL than a strong offense because of how many more variables impact that side of the ball. I went back to 2015 and looked at how often teams who finished in the top 10 or top five in scoring defense were able to repeat that performance. The odds were less than a coin flip. 

Year	Top 10 repeat	Top 5 repeat
2015	6	2
2016	4	1
2017	6	1
2018	4	2
2019	3	1
2020	4	1
2021	4	1
Total	31/70 (44%)	9/35 (26%)

 

Drilling down on top five defenses also revealed some interesting nuggets. Of the 35 teams, 32 saw their scoring rank go down in the subsequent season. Only two — the 2019-2020 Ravens and the 2020-2021 Saints — were able to climb higher the next year after finishing in the top five. Intuitively this makes sense; a top-five scoring defense is a peak performance and there’s more room to go down than up. Seventeen of 35 top-five defenses were still top-ten units the following season, which is a little better than the rate for top-10 units in the table. And 27 of 35 were at least above average in scoring defense. 

To sum it up, the Jets will likely be worse on defense and it’s 50/50 whether they’re still a top-10 unit. If the offense is way better with Rodgers, it could easily offset any regression. But the team’s early-season schedule will provide precious little margin for error. The Jets kick off 2023 with: 

• Vs BUF (MNF)
• At DAL
• Vs NE
• Vs KC (SNF)
• At DEN
• Vs PHI
• Bye

Even the “easy” games in that stretch against the Patriots and Broncos aren’t against pushovers. The other four are against other Super Bowl contenders. If things start rough for the Jets due to the aforementioned issues, something like a 2-4 start heading into the bye week is well within the realistic range of outcomes. The New York media will have a field day with that, and all of a sudden everyone’s backs are against the wall and the rosy vibes of summer will feel like a distant memory. That kind of hole wouldn’t be insurmountable for the Jets but with the margin for error so tight in an intensely competitive AFC, there’s little margin for error. 

2 – Bills also miss the postseason

Things have quieted down in Buffalo since the OTAs adventures with WR Stefon Diggs. In totality, though, it’s still hard to say that the Bills took much of a step forward this offseason while the rest of the AFC largely got better. To be clear, it would be foolhardy to write off any team with Josh Allen at quarterback from doing serious damage and making a deep postseason run. But we’ve also seen plenty of contenders fall quicker than expected, and there are some red flags that stick out to me about the Bills. 

The first is that this offense still seems like it could be way too dependent on Allen going superhero mode to have success. The Bills had limited resources to be fair, but they weren’t able to land a bonafide complement to Diggs. They used a first-round pick on TE Dalton Kincaid who could be that guy eventually but the transition to the NFL for rookie tight ends is steep. The receiving corps is largely the same, with some shuffling at slot receiver. They’ll be relying on RB James Cook to take a step forward to upgrade a running game that too often has been an ineffective alternative to Allen. And there are questions on the offensive line, especially on the right side with second-round G O’Cyrus Torrence and RT Spencer Brown. Torrence might be a good player in the future but some early growing pains should be expected. 

Defense is where the Bills have bigger issues though. If you read the Jets section, you know that it’s hard to maintain consistent elite-level play on defense. Former Bills DC Leslie Frazier was breaking the curve for everyone else, however. In the last five years running Buffalo’s defense, Frazier’s teams finished inside the top five in scoring defense and total defense three times. That’s a huge loss that not enough people are talking about. 

Bills HC Sean McDermott will take over for Frazier, and he got his current job because of his defensive acumen. Still, that will stretch him thin. The Bills are also dealing with several personnel losses on that side of the ball. They lost LB Tremaine Edmunds, whose range in coverage was an underrated key to Frazier’s scheme. Buffalo’s taken several swings at finding impact edge rushers in the draft but had to bring in DE Von Miller last year to fix shortcomings in that area. Miller is out at least four games and could miss more as he recovers from a torn ACL. Both Bills starting safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are past 30 and starting to show signs of wear and tear. 

I don’t think the Bills will be a top-10 defense in 2023, which will put even more pressure on Allen and the offense. They’re not a bad team, but the cold, hard math says that only seven teams are going to make the playoffs on that side of the bracket and the gap between Buffalo and the rest of the AFC has shrunk. If they don’t stand out from the pack, it’s not inconceivable that they’ll be left behind. 

3 – Panthers win the NFC South

I’ve thought Carolina could be frisky in a wide-open division for a while, and sneak up on people while other teams like the Falcons and Saints draw more national attention. The preseason shook my resolve a little, not because Carolina went 0-3 (wins and losses don’t matter in the preseason) but because the offensive line was unexpectedly shaky. The unit was the strength of the team last year but in hindsight, the Panthers ran the ball as much as possible to minimize their weakness at quarterback and it helped the line look good. They also need to get OLB Brian Burns back in the fold because there’s no path to being a top-10 defense without him. 

Nevertheless, I still think there’s a path to the Panthers winning the NFC South. Looking around the division, you can make the case that Carolina has the best coaching staff with new HC Frank Reich and company. While Saints QB Derek Carr probably holds the title of best quarterback in the division, it’s quite possible Panthers first-round QB Bryce Young, the No. 1 pick, will pass him at some point this season. Add in a defense with a lot of interesting talent that could be a top-ten unit if it can stay reasonably healthy, and Carolina can absolutely contend for the NFC South crown. 

I expect the Panthers to look better than they did in the preseason when they were trying to play things close to the vest schematically. I still think it could be rough sledding early. But the schedule sets up in the second half of the season for the Panthers to make a run, and Reich has a history of coaching teams to strong finishes. 

4 – Raiders finish with the No. 1 overall pick

The Arizona Cardinals are the heavy favorite for the No. 1 overall pick, and for good reason. They have the thinnest roster in the league and are clearly setting things up for a year of short-term pain with hopeful gains as the new regime builds its vision. They’re currently underdogs in every game they’re scheduled to play. 

Still, the odds are higher that someone other than Arizona will be picking first in April. While there’s a lot of speculation that the team will sit QB Kyler Murray the entire season to help lock up the pick, I’m still not sure I buy it, and there’s a legitimate counter-narrative coming out of Arizona on that point. Murray is too talented not to will the Cardinals to a couple of wins if he ends up playing down the stretch, and that could prove to be the difference between the No. 1 pick and No. 2 or No. 3. 

There are a few other bottom-out contenders like the Buccaneers and Rams, but the Raiders are the one I have my eyes on. The combination of an injury-prone starting quarterback, a questionable offensive line, a thin roster on defense and a combustible coaching staff led by HC Josh McDaniels are all part of a recipe that could equal a very high pick. 

5 – Cowboys finish as the No. 1 seed in the NFC

After Tom Brady left New England, it felt like Dallas reclaimed the title of “team other fans most love to hate.” The Cowboys are always polarizing and they have a lot of subjects who drive a lot of the talking heads’ conversation during the season or offseason, from QB Dak Prescott to HC Mike McCarthy to owner Jerry Jones. 

What gets lost in all the noise about Prescott’s status in the quarterback pecking order or Jones’ foibles as an owner or McCarthy’s job security is this — the Cowboys have a really talented team. There are few weaknesses on the roster right now and a lot of high-end talent. Starting on defense, the Cowboys have a realistic candidate for defensive player of the year in star LB Micah Parsons. In the secondary, Stephon Gilmore and Trevon Diggs are a potentially outstanding tandem, and there are competent starters at every other position. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn turned the team around for back-to-back top-10 finishes in scoring defense and is aiming for at hird. 

On offense, the team is in great shape on the offensive line with a lineup of LT Tyron Smith, LG Tyler Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, RG Zack Martin and RT Terence Steele. Depth would be a question mark if any of those five miss significant time, though that’s true for most teams. The skill positions got a boost with the arrival of veteran WR Brandin Cooks and WR Michael Gallup should be better with another year put between him and his ACL surgery. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb and RB Tony Pollard are already stars. It would be highly surprising if Prescott led the league in interceptions again. 

Most people who have doubts about the Cowboys center them around McCarthy, whose reputation was damaged by how his time in Green Bay ended. By the end, McCarthy’s scheme was stale and predictable, so it’s fair to question his decision to reassume play-calling duties and send former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore packing. Dallas was the No. 1 scoring offense in 2021 and No. 4 in 2022 under Moore.

However, I think treating McCarthy as a net negative as a play-caller might be swinging too far the other way. He’s been around a long time and has had considerable success as an offensive coach. I wouldn’t put him on the cutting edge of the NFL’s scheme wars but he’s gotten in trouble in the past when his teams don’t have the talent to win one-on-one matchups. Dallas has that talent now. 

6 – The Patriots and HC Bill Belichick “mutually part ways” after the season

Nothing lasts forever in the NFL, and the end is rarely graceful. The Patriots have not won a playoff game since the Super Bowl in 2019. They’ve missed the playoffs two of the past three years. Last year was particularly embarrassing for owner Robert Kraft with Belichick’s decision to entrust the crucial second year of QB Mac Jones’ development to Matt Patricia and Joe Judge — who had never held any significant offensive coaching positions and had backgrounds on defense and special teams respectively. 

As inconceivable as it might seem, Belichick is entering the 2023 season on the hot seat. He is chasing the NFL all-time wins record and is within striking distance, but Kraft has pointedly refused to commit to allowing him as long as it takes in New England if the team isn’t contending. He hasn’t necessarily given Belichick a public playoff ultimatum but he’s skirted close. 

“Look, I’d like him to break Don Shula’s record, but I’m not looking for any our players to get great stats,” Kraft said. “We’re about winning, and doing whatever we can to win. And that’s what our focus is now. And I — it’s very important to me that we make the playoffs, and that’s what I hope happens next year.”

So what happens if the Patriots miss the playoffs? It’s not crazy to think that 2023 would be Belichick’s last year in New England. Kraft won’t want to be the man who fired the greatest coach in NFL history, which is why the announcement will likely emphasize the “mutual” nature of the split. Kraft will look for the next coach who can keep his team ahead of the curve, while Belichick will have no shortage of suitors willing to let him chase the record and hopeful that he can impart just a little bit of his culture on their organizations before he retires.