The quarterback position is so important for teams that when there’s a change of leadership for rebuilding teams, there’s a tendency to divide the to-do list into two parts: 1) find a quarterback, 2) fix everything else. When teams are sketching out what they expect the next season to look like, quarterback is the first domino that has to fall for everything else to settle into place.

Every six months or so, I like to take a look at the quarterback landscape around the NFL to try and get a feel for what moves might be imminent. It’s like a big game of musical chairs, with 32 starting jobs and 32 backup slots. Part of that involves figuring out which teams are settled at the position, but it’s the nature of the NFL for most teams to feel like there’s room for improvement. Following through on that is always easier said than done. 

The other half of the exercise is figuring out which quarterbacks could be on the move, either in free agency or the trade market, or which new quarterbacks entering the league via the draft have the potential to shake up the picture. The supply is always less than the demand. 

The last time I did this exercise in June, I split the league’s notable passers into a variety of different categories: 

• Elite: The consensus cream of the crop
• Established: Plenty of debate about how exactly to sort out the hierarchy, but passers with some demonstrated level of success and (more importantly) significant financial commitment
• Arrow up: Quarterbacks on rookie contracts who look promising
• Solid veterans: The NFL middle class; starting quarterbacks who lag behind their peers in perception and salary
• The old guys: The retirement cliff has been pushed later and later, but these guys are getting close to it. Generally 35 and older. 
• Jury out: Quarterbacks on rookie contracts who it’s not clear yet if they can be successful
• Reclamation projects: Quarterbacks who have fallen on hard times and need some TLC to recapture their potential
• Bridge QBs: Short-term solutions who are competent enough to start, not good enough to be long-term solutions
• Backups & dart throws: No. 2 quarterbacks and young guys who might still have a shot to develop

There were 15 quarterbacks who landed in the first three categories, everyone else slotted in somewhere below. The Browns, Steelers, Saints, Colts, Seahawks, Giants, Jets and Panthers were teams flagged as potentially being in the market, with the Dolphins, Cardinals and Rams dark horses to join them. With 11 weeks of the regular season in the books, some of those quarterback situations have been resolved, while others have joined the watch list. 

Today I’m going to take a slightly different perspective on the same topic. I’ll be going through each team’s quarterback situation and projecting whether the current starter will be under center in Week 1 of the 2026 season. If not, I’ll take my best guess at predicting who will, factoring in the available options for teams looking to change quarterbacks this offseason. 

What quickly became apparent is that teams will have a decision to make — either take their shot in 2026 when the options look limited, or wait until 2027 when more potential starters could be available, but the competition to land them will be much more intense. That’s because the 2027 quarterback class could be outstanding, particularly if several underclassmen who are leaning toward returning for another year of college football follow through on that. It’s still way too early to make firm declarations about any of that, but it’s something teams will be aware of. 

AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals

Projected 2026 starter: Joe Burrow

Injuries have become an unfortunate piece of the conversation with Burrow, as this is the third time in his six years that a major injury has sidelined him for a significant chunk of the season. But when he’s on the field, he’s one of the five best quarterbacks in football, which is why the Bengals invested what they did in trading for QB Joe Flacco to try and keep the season afloat for Burrow to swoop in with his hero’s cape. It’s a long shot, though. Even with a full 17 games of Burrow, the Bengals missed the playoffs last year, and the defense somehow got even worse in 2025. 

The past three years have raised major questions about whether the Bengals have built around Burrow correctly. Burrow’s injuries have been unfortunate but not enough to realistically cloud his status with the team. He will be the Bengals’ starting quarterback for as long as he wants to be — and THAT is the real question with Burrow. Cincinnati’s worst nightmare would be its history with Carson Palmer repeating itself. 

Cleveland Browns

Projected 2026 starter: Tua Tagovailoa

The Browns are probably going to be in the market for a new starting quarterback in 2026. So far, third-round QB Dillon Gabriel looks like a long-term developmental backup thrust into a starting job before he’s ready, not an overlooked diamond in the rough like the team seemed to hope. Fifth-round QB Shedeur Sanders got his first live action in Week 11 and completed just four passes on 16 attempts with an interception, as the Browns failed to close out a lead against the Ravens. Sanders still has a shot to put himself in the mix in 2026, because what the Browns need more than anything is a starting-caliber passer on a bargain bin deal. 

Next year the Browns are still going to be dealing with the massive cap hit from the Deshaun Watson trade that went south, but the end to the situation is in sight. Cleveland will restructure the bulk of Watson’s $46 million guaranteed salary, creating $35 million in cap space in 2026 which will be vital to fielding a full roster. Then, they can designate him as a June 1 release. He would count for $45 million against the cap in 2026, $86 million in 2027. It’s an enormous sum but the salary cap will be well over $300 million by then, so that’s the best the Browns can make of a bad situation. 

With over $130 million of cap space over the next two seasons already allocated to the quarterback position, the Browns will be on the hunt for a bargain, either a rookie on a cost-controlled deal or a veteran available for cheap. Tagovailoa would fit the description for the latter. While he has a $54 million guaranteed base salary for 2026, the only team that will pay that money is the Dolphins, either by keeping him in the fold or if they reach their limit and cut him to pursue different alternatives. If the rest of the season goes off the rails, that outcome remains possible. 

Assuming Browns HC Kevin Stefanski remains in 2026, Tagovailoa will appeal to him and the staff for the same reasons that Gabriel did. Both are undersized lefties from Hawaii, but more importantly, both are at their best making quick decisions and distributing the ball accurately off of play action. Tagovailoa is proof of concept for quarterbacks like Gabriel in the NFL, and there are some Alabama connections in Cleveland like WR Jerry Jeudy and OC Tommy Rees. 

Tagovailoa wouldn’t be an inspiring long-term option for the Browns but he would be the exact type of distressed asset who would be appealing to the analytically-inclined front office spearheaded by GM Andrew Berry. He’d give the team a veteran option who could ensure a rookie was not rushed into action, and who could give a veteran-laden defense someone to rally around. Once his one-year buyout year is over, Tagovailoa would either be an option for the Browns to re-sign if things went well or a candidate to earn a compensatory pick. 

Signing Tagovailoa also would not rule the Browns out from making other moves at quarterback, including taking one at the top of the draft. In this specific scenario, I have Alabama QB Ty Simpson as a name to watch. He and Rees overlapped for a year in Tuscaloosa, and he also fits the mold of what the Browns are looking for at the position. Simpson is a tick undersized and not a physical freak of nature like some other prospects, but he has a natural command of the position that’s been on display in his first year as the starter. He has just two interceptions on over 300 passing attempts this year. 

The biggest question with Simpson will be a lack of experience, as he was behind other players his first few years at Alabama and would have just one year’s worth of starts if he declared for the draft this year. Experience has always been valued at a premium for NFL teams evaluating quarterbacks, and that’s been reinforced the past few years with the success of some prospects against the flameouts of others. If Simpson is projected as a top-ten pick, though, it could be tough not to declare. In this scenario, the Browns insure their investment in Simpson by also signing Tagovailoa. 

Baltimore Ravens

Projected 2026 starter: Lamar Jackson

Jackson made his return from a hamstring injury and has the Ravens on a three-game winning streak as they look to run the table and get back on top of the AFC North. The two-time MVP has been shaking the rust off but he does have a chance to put himself in the mix for a third if he elevates his game from here and the Ravens stay hot. He has 16 total touchdowns in seven games and is third in the league in adjusted net yards per attempt. Playoff success will continue to be the final frontier for the Ravens and Jackson but as long as he’s around, they should be knocking on the door. 

One item to watch this offseason will be Jackson’s contract. He has two years remaining on his deal in 2026 and 2027, with a significant $74.5 million cap hit in 2026. Both sides should have significant motivation to work out a new deal, with the Ravens seeking to create cap space and Jackson securing more long-term guarantees. Jackson has an easy case not just to reset the quarterback market, but push it way past the current $60 million per year high-water mark. If push comes to shove, the Ravens will pay that. 

But…don’t think the Ravens front office hasn’t noticed how the Chiefs and Bills, their top competition in the AFC, have managed to lock their quarterbacks up at rates that don’t lead the market. Patrick Mahomes’ 10-year deal remains the most unique in the NFL, and the Bills just signed Josh Allen to an updated six-year deal that replaced the four years he had remaining on his contract and came in at $55 million annually. Negotiations with Jackson are trickier because he represents himself and doesn’t use an agent as a buffer, but as he and the Ravens try to break through in the AFC, there’s a good chance the team points this out to him. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected starter: Justin Fields

The only person who knows what Aaron Rodgers is going to do after this season is Rodgers, and he might not even know. So far the match between him and the Steelers has been solid, surprising the people who thought it could be a trainwreck. Pittsburgh is a flawed team but it has wins over the Patriots and Colts and currently leads the AFC North at 6-4. The floor, as always under HC Mike Tomlin, looks high. 

Rodgers has 19 touchdown passes in 10 games, and the Steelers have made it known they’d bring him back in 2026 if he wanted. But his other numbers, from ANY/A to success rate to the good old-fashioned eye test, look much closer to average to below average. It’s hard to shake the sense when watching Rodgers play this year that he’s trying as hard as he can to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible and avoid taking a hit. I don’t blame someone who’s nearly 42 years old playing in the NFL for that; I just question how much more of an appetite he’ll have for football’s grind. 

That once again leaves the Steelers in limbo at quarterback, with no long-term solution on the roster and a low enough draft pick to not be assured of finding one. The team has been acquiring extra picks from trades and the compensatory formula and has some ammunition for a trade up the board, but if the 2026 draft class proves to be as underwhelming as it’s trending, I could see Pittsburgh electing for a band-aid approach yet again. There’s something to be said for throwing a handful of cheap darts, hoping to get lucky, and if not, turning to what could be a much better quarterback market in 2027. 

The Steelers wanted to re-sign Fields this year, but he elected for the fresh start and $30 million guaranteed from the Jets, figuring New York was giving him a longer leash than a Steelers team that turned back to Russell Wilson despite a decent six-game stretch from Fields in 2024. Fields’ situation in New York is looking untenable, and he figures to be on the move again this coming offseason. Still just 27 years old and with electric running skills, I don’t think the Steelers would have to work hard to talk themselves into Fields, especially if it’s a cheap deal. 

For good measure, the Steelers could add veteran Joe Flacco to give them a backstop for Fields and prevent Tomlin from worrying about which division rival Flacco will suit up for next. They could go back to the quarterback well on Day 2, adding a passer like Penn State’s Drew Allar or LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier — experienced options who were seen as potential first-round picks at one point but who didn’t have the final collegiate seasons they expected. 

NFC North

Chicago Bears

Projected 2026 starter: Caleb Williams

It’s been bumpy but there are clear signs of progress from Williams in his first year in HC Ben Johnson’s offense. His completion percentage is lower than his rookie year but he’s made significant improvements across the board in nearly every other stat. His success rate is up nearly 2.5 percentage points and his sack rate has been cut by more than half, falling from 10.8 percent to 4.6. The offense is No. 3 in yards, No. 7 in scoring and at 7-3, the Bears have already beaten last year’s win total and are in the mix for a playoff berth. 

There’s still plenty for Williams to improve on, including his accuracy and how he operates within the structure of the offense. His lowlights are still rough, but he’s starting to build an equally impressive bank of highlights, from scintillating throws and scrambles to signature comebacks the past two weeks. The relationship between Williams and Johnson is still in its infancy, but there’s good reason to be encouraged by the results so far. 

Detroit Lions

Projected 2026 starter: Jared Goff

Goff’s status with the Lions is rock solid. He’s one of just two quarterbacks who have hit the 20-touchdown mark at the approximate halfway point of the season, and he leads the entire NFL with a 74 percent completion rate — though that was before Sunday night’s dismantling by the Eagles. He’s been a stabilizing force for a unit that’s undergone a fair amount of change, from the play-calling to interior offensive line instability. At 31 years old, he’s in his prime and looks like it. 

Green Bay Packers

Projected 2026 starter: Jordan Love

There’s a lot of discontentment in Green Bay right now, as 5-3-1 is not where anyone involved with the team expected to be after trading for DE Micah Parsons in an eve-of-the-season blockbuster. Parsons and the defense have largely done well, it’s the offense that’s slumped, averaging 10 points per game in back-to-back losses to the Panthers and Eagles. 

Love hasn’t been perfect but he’s been far from the biggest issue with the team and overall is playing like a top-ten quarterback this season, including in ANY/A, ESPN’s QBR, success rate, PFF grade and EPA per play. There’s some uncertainty about whether HC Matt LaFleur will be back if the Packers miss the playoffs, but there should be no uncertainty about Love’s status for 2026. 

Minnesota Vikings

Projected 2026 starter: J.J. McCarthy

McCarthy has looked like a young and developing quarterback finding his feet — when he’s been on the field. A high ankle sprain that sidelined him for six games this year was an unfortunate setback for a player who missed his entire rookie season. In his four starts this year, McCarthy is completing just over 50 percent of his passes for 692 yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s also been sacked 15 times and fumbled four times. 

The silver lining is that McCarthy has two big wins in divisional games where he wasn’t just along for the ride, but a key positive factor. He’s been able to make plays on the ground and has two rushing touchdowns as well. Four starts is far too soon to make any kind of determination about McCarthy’s future, and Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell will almost certainly not give up on him after just one year. How the rest of this season goes will determine what kind of alternatives Minnesota adds to the roster in 2026, though. 

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Projected 2026 starter: Daniel Jones

The Colts gambled on Jones as veteran competition for former top pick Anthony Richardson this offseason. It wasn’t viewed favorably. Jones was a well-known punching bag from his largely underwhelming tenure with the Giants, and the reports from camp about the competition with Richardson struck a similar tone. So Jones and the Colts’ decision-makers who bet on him deserve plenty of credit for the blazing hot start to the season. Indianapolis is one of the top teams in the AFC at 8-2 and ranks No. 1 in both total offense and scoring. 

Jones’ penchant for turnovers has reared its head in a few games this year, with seven picks and eight fumbles (three lost) so far. The good far outweighs the bad, though. Jones has been efficient through the air and on the ground, and he’s executing HC Shane Steichen’s offense at a high level. 

The veteran got a massive vote of confidence at the trade deadline when the Colts traded two first-round picks for CB Sauce Gardner. If the Colts had any doubt about their quarterback position going forward, that’s not a move they would have made. Jones isn’t under contract past this season but a deal can be considered a formality given the circumstances. Once again, Jones will have massive leverage in contract talks, just like the last time he was in a contract year. The Giants gave Jones a deal significantly higher than most people expected back then, so whatever your expectations for a Jones contract are, it might be worth adjusting them upward. 

With an apparent solution to a problem the Colts have been trying to figure out since Andrew Luck shocked them and retired, what’s next for Richardson? He has one more year remaining on his rookie contract, so the Colts could just keep him as a backup and continue his development behind the scenes. I would expect them to be open to trading him if they get solid interest, something like a fourth or fifth-round pick. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected 2026 starter: Trevor Lawrence

The Jaguars hired HC Liam Coen this offseason because of his reputation as an offensive architect. Despite handing Lawrence a massive contract last summer, there’s a pervading sense that the Jaguars have not been able to get the best out of the former No. 1 pick yet. Coen’s top task was changing that. 

So far, it’s been a mixed bag on that front. Entering Week 11, Lawrence was completing less than 60 percent of his passes for just 6.3 yards per attempt, 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He’s in the bottom third in several notable passing categories, including 31st in success rate at just 40.4 percent. As these stats suggest, Lawrence is still maddeningly inaccurate, and there have been times when Coen’s frustrations have visibly boiled over on the sidelines. 

Jacksonville beat the Chargers comfortably on Sunday to move to 6-4 on the season, and have wins against the Chiefs and 49ers under their belt as well. They also had a stunning collapse to the Texans the week before despite a 26-10 fourth-quarter lead, so the results, much like the starting quarterback, have been inconsistent. But barring some kind of massive collapse, it’s hard to see the Jaguars doing anything drastic. Lawrence’s salary through 2027 is guaranteed, so cutting him isn’t an option. Trading him this offseason would trigger $50.5 million in dead money and double Lawrence’s hit against the cap in 2026. That would be tough for the front office to work around with how much money the team has tied up elsewhere. 

Houston Texans

Projected 2026 starter: C.J. Stroud

With how disappointing the past two years have been for Stroud and the Texans, it’s worth revisiting how bad things were for Houston before Stroud’s arrival in 2023. From 2020 to 2022, the Texans managed just 11 wins and went through three different head coaches, not counting an interim stint from Romeo Crennel. Then in the first year with Stroud and HC DeMeco Ryans, the Texans surged to 10-7, AFC South champs and won a playoff game. 

That set the bar high for what would come next, and the Texans’ offensive line has not been able to support the weight of those expectations. Houston won 10 games again last year but the offense looked out of sorts all year, leading to a change at play-caller. In a new scheme behind a remade offensive line, Stroud has been inconsistent. He’s 16th in the league in success rate and 21st in ANY/A, and has missed the last two games in the concussion protocol. 

Those high-level flashes from his rookie year have still been there but what it feels like we’ve learned over the past two seasons is that Stroud is more sensitive to his supporting cast than his rookie year suggested. That’s particularly relevant because this offseason Stroud will be eligible for a new deal for the first time. The more the Texans pay Stroud, the less they have to build the rest of the roster around him, and his case for a market-setting deal isn’t as bulletproof as it seemed coming out of 2023. 

Stroud still has two more years under his rookie contract, so there’s no reason to think anyone besides him will be under center for the Texans in the foreseeable future. There’s no indication that either side has any second thoughts about an extension, either. It’ll just be interesting to see if both sides are on the same page about the value. 

Tennessee Titans

Projected 2026 starter: Cam Ward

It’s hard to get a fair read on Ward due to how dismal the surroundings are around him in Tennessee — an unfortunate trend when looking at first overall picks the past few years. Titans HC Brian Callahan didn’t make it to Week 7 of his second season, getting let go during the season. Tennessee isn’t playing with a full deck on offense, from the system to the play-calling to the protection and pass catchers. The Titans are 1-9 this year and have earned all nine of those losses. 

Ward’s not free of blame for those struggles. He has been sacked 41 times in 10 games this year, leading the league in sacks and just barely being edged out by Justin Fields in sack rate. He was raw in certain ways as a prospect and those have been magnified by a coaching staff that’s been incapable of putting him in position to have success. Changing that will be the top priority for the next coach, and Ward will have some leash to develop given Tennessee’s significant investment. 

By all accounts, Ward checks the boxes when it comes to leadership and work ethic, and there’s plenty of physical talent to work with too. That’s not a guarantee for success, though. He and Fields are different players but Fields is also praised regularly for his toughness, work ethic and leadership. He hasn’t been able to develop the mental processing side to win from the pocket in the structure of the offense. For Ward to have longevity in the league, he’ll have to cook out the raw parts of his game, and it’s up to the Titans to help him get there. 

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected 2026 starter: Baker Mayfield

This is the third year in a row that Mayfield has played well. Tampa Bay has overcome a wave of injuries and is still 6-3, firmly in the mix for a fifth-straight division title and a playoff berth. Mayfield is on pace for his third straight 4,00-yard season and has 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions through 10 games. 

There are some warts for the Bucs to clear up to follow through on preseason expectations of contending in the NFC. Mayfield is at just three picks but his turnover-worthy play rate is much higher — opposing defenses just haven’t capitalized yet. He also ranks just 28th in success rate at 42 percent. However, there’s nothing to suggest the Buccaneers won’t be signing Mayfield to a handsome new contract after this season as he goes into a contract year in 2026. 

Atlanta Falcons

Projected 2026 starter: Michael Penix Jr.

The results have been uneven for the Falcons and Penix in his first full year as a starter after Atlanta shocked the league and drafted him No. 8 overall in 2024. The positives: Penix has protected the ball well (just three picks all season) and generally avoided sacks. In some games, he’s played at a strong level and helped key the Falcons offense to success. 

In other games, Penix has been more of an anchor than a buoy to his team’s hopes. Just like he was in college, Penix has proven to be a streaky passer. His season-long completion percentage is just 58.8 percent, and he’s left a ton of big plays on the field. Despite being a good athlete, Penix does not use his legs effectively with just 62 rushing yards on the season. Perhaps staying healthy is on his mind. Penix came into the league with an extensive injury history, including two torn ACLs and two shoulder surgeries. He missed one game with a knee injury this year and had to leave Week 11’s game against the Panthers after tweaking what looked like the same knee. 

With the level of investment the Falcons made in Penix, odds are he gets another season to work out the kinks. The wildcard is if the Falcons clean house, getting rid of HC Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot who were the masterminds behind Atlanta’s unconventional handling of the quarterback position the past two years. In that scenario, all bets are off. A new regime wouldn’t have the same allegiance to Penix, but it might also have limited options to replace him. 

Carolina Panthers

Projected 2026 starter: Bryce Young

Had this article been published a week ago following Carolina’s embarrassing stumble against the Saints, the tenor on Young would have been unavoidably different. Coming off a week in which Young set the new franchise single-game record for passing yards (besting Cam Newton’s 432 in just the second game of his career), the former No. 1 pick has earned himself a bit of a reprieve from the critic’s pen. It’s a lesson not to ride the rollercoaster with young quarterbacks, and this won’t be the first quarterback that point will be raised with. 

Progress for Young hasn’t followed the same trajectory as his hot streak to end last season, but it’s been there, both for him and the Panthers as a team. Carolina is 6-5 and has the same number of wins as the division-leading Buccaneers. Young’s stats will get a much-needed boost from his 446-yard, three-touchdown day against the Falcons in Week 11, and it’s admirable that he gutted through an ankle injury to notch another comeback win. 

Still, with Young’s third season more than halfway over, the time is coming for some big picture questions. Carolina will need to decide whether to pick up Young’s fifth-year option for the 2027 season which would guarantee him $26 million — not a bad deal for a starting-level passer but an anchor for a player that’s not in the team’s plans. If the team declines the option, 2026 would become a contract year for Young. 

As the Panthers continue to rebuild, they’ll be evaluating how much more Young can grow and how much more they can grow with him under center. Young does some things well but so far the NFL has done a much better job of exposing his limitations to this point in his career. Days like this past Sunday are nice, but it would be nice to see Young dice up a team besides the Falcons. He’ll have some chances down the stretch to prove it, with Carolina’s schedule toughening up considerably from here on out. 

How the rest of the year plays out will dictate whether Carolina exercises Young’s option in May. Regardless, it feels like the Panthers are strongly leaning toward giving Young one more full season as the starter in 2026. If Young struggles more than not down the stretch, it would be interesting to see if the Panthers would bring in a veteran to push Young. Carolina HC Dave Canales has a history with Geno Smith, who could be on the chopping block after struggles of his own this season. 

New Orleans Saints

Projected 2026 starter: Tyler Shough

It’s still way too early to make any kind of determination about Shough with two starts under his belt, so this prediction is rooted more in some dot connecting about how the Saints might see themselves going into 2026. Saints GM Mickey Loomis hasn’t been able to deny the reality that they’re rebuilding this year, with a 2-8 record and too many games where they have just not been competitive. Their salary situation is clearing up but they already have $62 million in dead money on the books for next year and that number will almost certainly climb. 

With a draft pick that will likely be very high in the round, the Saints could draft a quarterback of the future if Shough flops in the second half of the season. But New Orleans will have holes all over the roster, questions about how well it can foster an environment for a rookie to have success and a potentially underwhelming class of signal callers to sift through. There’s a strong argument for the Saints to spend next year cleaning up the salary cap and patching the holes they can while giving Shough (and maybe Spencer Rattler) another year of experience. 

There’s some recent precedent for this. The Texans (Davis Mills) and the Commanders (Sam Howell) handed the keys to young, non-first-round passers as those organizations navigated multi-year rebuilds. Shough has also flashed some interesting things in his first few games which could be worth exploring. The Saints did just use the No. 40 overall pick to draft him, which is not a small investment, even if it wouldn’t stop the Saints from drafting another quarterback if they truly fell in love this offseason. 

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Projected 2026 starter: Josh Allen

Allen is the reigning MVP and is having another excellent season. He scored six touchdowns in Week 11’s shootout victory over the Buccaneers, pushing him to 28 total on the season. He also tied Cam Newton for the most rushing touchdowns ever by a quarterback at 75. Allen is locked in as Buffalo’s starter for the foreseeable future. 

Miami Dolphins

Projected 2026 starter: Fernando Mendoza

Full disclosure: it’s probably more likely at this point that the Dolphins run things back in 2026 with no further changes to key figures beyond GM Chris Grier, despite all of the struggles this season. Miami eked out its fourth win of the season against the Commanders in a mistake-ridden international game in Madrid. There continue to be reports that owner Stephen Ross doesn’t want to fire HC Mike McDaniel, which means he’ll be incentivized to find reasons to keep him. If McDaniel is retained, it means the odds are high Tua Tagovailoa will be as well — Miami and McDaniel have $54 million guaranteed reasons to try and make that relationship work. 

If the Dolphins collapse down the stretch, however, Ross’ hand could be forced into a clean sweep, axing McDaniel who would be replaced by a coach who almost certainly would push to move on from Tagovailoa and rebuild the team from the ground up. In that situation, the Dolphins would look to turn the page with a rookie. 

Mendoza has pushed himself into the top ten conversation with his sensational season at Indiana this fall. Based on the best available information we have on the draft right now, Mendoza and Simpson from Alabama might be the only two first-round locks at quarterback. If the Dolphins collapse, which is what it would take for McDaniel to get canned, they should end up in striking distance of one of them. 

New York Jets

Projected 2026 starter: Deshaun Watson

There are going to be some teams that will need to get a little creative to address their need at quarterback in 2026. The Jets have multiple first-round picks and their own pick would currently be in the top six. But we’ve seen recently that a top-six pick sometimes isn’t enough to guarantee a quarterback. There’s also a chance the Jets decide to kick the can with three first-round selections in what’s expected to be a better quarterback class in 2027. 

So what then? We know the Jets can’t bring back Justin Fields for another season even though that was their plan when they signed him to a deal with $10 million in guarantees in 2026. Fields might lose his hold on the starting job this week after another game in which he struggled to move the ball through the air. The Jets will likely cut him this offseason to avoid paying him an additional $10 million beyond what they already guaranteed. 

If the Jets elect not to go all-in on a quarterback in the draft, they could pursue a trade for a different young signal caller. The Fields experiment has shown that the regime of HC Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey values athleticism, so Kyler Murray has to be considered an option. The Jets could roll the dice on Anthony Richardson from the Colts if Indianapolis parts with him but he’s shown even less at this point of his career than Fields. Spencer Rattler from the Saints is another one worth watching, as Glenn has ties to New Orleans and Mougey was with Denver’s front office when the Broncos reportedly had a really solid grade on Rattler. 

But the out-of-the-box name to know here is Watson. Whether or not the Browns cut him next year, he still could be available — not at full freight on his $46 million salary of course. If the Browns traded him for a mid or late-round pick after restructuring his contract, it would give them a small way to save face in an embarrassing situation while clearing up what could be a bit of a logjam in their quarterback room next year. Whether it’s a cut or a release, Watson would arrive at a new team on a veteran minimum salary with a lot to prove. There’s relatively little risk from a football perspective. If the Jets are comfortable with the PR hit of adding someone who was suspended 11 games for sexually harassing over two dozen women, Watson would be a low-cost dart throw who seems to fit the mold Glenn and Mougey have for the position. 

New England Patriots

Projected 2026 starter: Drake Maye

Maye has been a revelation in his second season. Under the experienced hand of OC Josh McDaniels, Maye’s averaging nearly nine yards an attempt while completing a remarkable 71.9 percent of his attempts. He leads the NFL in passing yards and has 20 passing touchdowns through 11 games. He still takes too many sacks, but the Patriots are 9-2 and Maye is firmly in the mix for NFL MVP. He looks like a force to be reckoned with for a long time. 

NFC East

Washington Commanders

Projected 2026 starter: Jayden Daniels

This season has been an unfortunate step back for the Commanders after a charmed 2024 season during Daniels’ rookie year. In 2025, Washington has been riddled as much as any other team with injuries, with certain position groups like defensive end and wide receiver getting virtually wiped out. The injury bug has unfortunately bitten Daniels a couple of times, too, with the latest being a dislocated left (non-throwing) elbow that currently has him sidelined. 

Washington took an aggressive approach this past offseason to try and build on its unexpected success, but this year proved the rebuild is still very much in progress. This offseason, the top priority will be surrounding Daniels with better protection and better weapons so he doesn’t have to shoulder so much weight for the team’s success. He’s still got an exciting dual-threat skillset that can take Washington to heights it hasn’t been in a while. 

Dallas Cowboys

Projected 2026 starter: Dak Prescott

The Cowboys may be 3-5-1 but it’s hard to put too much blame for that on Prescott, who has been excellent in his 10th NFL season. He’s completing just under 70 percent of his pass attempts with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions, ranking fourth in the league in passing attempts. Dallas’ defense is 31st in both scoring and total defense, and has been the biggest reason the Cowboys have struggled so far and are well on their way to wasting another prime year from their franchise quarterback.  

Prescott is 32 years old and could play for another decade based on how we’ve seen some quarterbacks age gracefully. But odds are he only has a handful of years of “prime” production left before he’s past his physical peak. He’s already become dramatically less mobile than he was in his 20s or before his major ankle injury in 2020, and he’ll be relegated even more to being a pure pocket passer as he advances into his 30s. That should put even more urgency on the Cowboys to maximize the window they have in the next few years. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Projected 2026 starter: Jalen Hurts

Hurts might be a “scheme quarterback” but he’s in the perfect scheme and organization to highlight his strengths and minimize his weaknesses. And those strengths happen to be strong enough to fuel multiple trips to the Super Bowl for the Eagles. There’s perhaps a conversation to be had at some point about how well Hurts’ game will age as he loses his legs but at 27 years old, that day feels like a long ways off. 

New York Giants

Projected 2026 starter: Jaxson Dart

The bright spot in yet another losing season for the Giants, Dart has shown enough promise for tons of people inside and outside New York to be highly optimistic about his future. He’s just made plays, including with both his arms and his legs, and that’s been in spite of injuries that have robbed him of key supporting cast members like WR Malik Nabers and fourth-round RB Cam Skattebo. On the year, he’s at a 62.7 percent completion rate for 10 touchdowns and three interceptions, plus another 300 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. 

The top priority for Dart will be reducing the amount of contact he takes, both in the pocket and as a runner, as that’s not sustainable for a long-term future as a starting quarterback in the NFL. But even though he’ll be on the second head coach of his career in 2026, that coach will probably be taking the job because he’s excited to work with Dart. 

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Projected 2026 starter: Bo Nix

The NFL is a week-to-week league, with fans and analysts riding the waves from wins to losses. Every game becomes some kind of referendum, especially in standalone primetime games. That does no favors for young quarterbacks in particular, who can be especially up and down as they’re getting their professional legs under them. 

Nix was a great example of that as a rookie, with four interceptions in his first two starts. He didn’t get his first passing touchdown until Week 3, and had just one through the first quarter of the year before finding his stride and finishing with 33 total touchdowns as a rookie. More importantly, the Broncos won 10 games and made the playoffs.

This year, a slight statistical step back combined with an ugly Thursday night game against the Raiders had prominent media members floating conspiracy theories about HC Sean Payton laying the public relations groundwork to get rid of Nix down the road. Others were wondering when the Broncos would bench him for Jarrett Stidham. This was all from professionals; the discourse from fans was even worse. 

Now that Nix has helped author a comeback win against the Chiefs, Denver’s biggest rival in the division and the measuring stick for the entire league, all of that hysteria seems rather silly. The Broncos are 9-2 and four games ahead of Kansas City for the division lead. They will host at least one playoff game. Nix is still writing the story of what his career will be, but he and Payton sure seem like they’re going to be in Denver for a while. 

Los Angeles Chargers

Projected 2026 starter: Justin Herbert

Any time Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh talks about Herbert, it’s clear none of the external doubts about Herbert and his lack of playoff success have entered the team’s thinking. That’s good because with the offensive line issues this year, the Chargers have an uphill battle to make any postseason noise despite the 7-4 record. Herbert is doing what he can despite being under constant duress, and it’s unfortunate the injuries hit this year when OC Greg Roman decided he was ready to unleash the passing offense. Entering Week 11, Herbert led the NFL with 358 passing attempts. 

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected 2026 starter: Patrick Mahomes

Yes, the Chiefs are 5-5 and would be a couple of spots out of the playoffs if they started today. There’s certainly not a lot of margin for error left the rest of the way if Kansas City doesn’t lock in. But you’ll be hard-pressed to find a lot of people betting against Mahomes and the Chiefs the rest of the way. They’ve proven too much in the last eight years to be doubted, even if their dynasty has to end at some point. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Projected 2026 starter: Kyler Murray

Things have not gone according to plan for the Raiders in 2025. They hired HC Pete Carroll, traded for QB Geno Smith and brought in OC Chip Kelly on one of the richest coordinator contracts in football with the goal of competing from the jump and giving the Raiders a high floor as an organization. The net result so far has been a 2-7 record. Kelly hasn’t delivered on the production that was promised, and injuries to TE Brock Bowers and LT Kolton Miller have submarined an offense that didn’t have a lot of depth to begin with. 

Smith has always had a bit of an issue with turnovers but it’s been particularly bad this year. He’s already thrown 12 on the year and his interception rate is the worst it’s been since his rookie year. That and the record have overshadowed some of the other solid things Smith has done, like a 66.7 completion percentage and a 46.9 success rate that’s 13th in the league. 

Carroll and Smith are famously close, but unless the results improve substantially down the stretch this year, it’s going to be hard to justify running things back. Kelly seems not long for Las Vegas, regardless, and the future of Smith and Carroll is likely tied to minority owner Tom Brady, who seemed to be a big part of hiring Carroll in the first place. 

Let’s say the Raiders keep Carroll but decide they need a change at quarterback, cutting Smith to save $8 million off of a $26.5 million salary that has $18.5 million in guarantees. They are projected to have well over $100 million in cap space next year, so they are a prime landing spot for a quarterback like Murray who has already been paid on a major second contract. That deal will also limit what the Cardinals can get back in a trade, so if the Raiders are willing to pay full freight, they could get Murray for a Day 2 pick and maybe something else. 

Carroll got an up-close look at Murray as an NFC West rival for years and will have an appreciation for the problems he can create for defenses. Brady tends to value pocket passers more than runners, but Murray is a big name who will appeal to the big boss, Raiders owner Mark Davis. As far as veteran options who could be available in 2026, Murray has a strong argument as the best available. 

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

Projected 2026 starter: Brock Purdy

The 49ers have been pretty steadfast that there’s no quarterback controversy between Purdy, who just signed a brand-new deal this offseason, and Mac Jones, who got a half-season of action filling in for Purdy while he battled a toe injury and acquitted himself well. Purdy backed that up in Week 11 by piloting the 49ers to a blowout win, and with that contract, he’s not going anywhere any time soon. 

The more interesting question is what sort of trade interest the 49ers will get in Jones this offseason, as he signed a two-year deal as the backup this past offseason. Is a third-round pick enough for the 49ers to part with a player who’s proven to be extremely valuable as an insurance policy? 

Arizona Cardinals

Projected 2026 starter: Kirk Cousins

We went long on why the Cardinals and Kyler Murray seem headed for a split, so we won’t belabor things too much here. The next question is who Arizona will replace Murray with. Current starting QB Jacoby Brissett is an option, as he signed a two-year deal this offseason with the Cardinals. Brissett has played well enough to send Murray to the bench and broke the NFL record for completions in a game this past weekend with 47. 

But Brissett is also a career journeyman for a reason, and he hasn’t been able to pull the Cardinals’ season out of its nosedive. He’s 1-4 as the starter this year, and at 33 years old in December, it’s unlikely he’s tapped into anything different to provide an extra spark. The Cardinals could reset around a rookie, but GM Monti Ossenfort and HC Jonathan Gannon, assuming they’re brought back, will be going into Year 4 in 2026. There will be pressure to deliver with results, and most rookie quarterbacks aren’t ready to produce at that level if you don’t grade them on a curve. 

That should put the Cardinals in the market for an established quarterback even if they also explore a double dip in the draft, and there’s one veteran who should be available who has some noteworthy connections to the coaching staff. Cousins overlapped with Cardinals OC Drew Petzing with the Vikings and has had a lot of success in similar systems. He missed Gannon in Minnesota by one seasons, but did cross paths there with Cardinals DC Nick Rallis. 

At 38 years old next August, Cousins isn’t a long-term solution. It’s fair to wonder how much he has left in the tank at this point as well. But there aren’t going to be a lot of quarterbacks available next offseason who can match his resume and production, and that should help give him a leg up in the pursuit of a starting job. He also won’t be expensive with the Falcons still paying him guaranteed money, which will help the Cardinals as they deal with some dead cap from moving on from Murray. Cousins might not be a better player, but he’s better at playing from the pocket and managing the game in the style the Cardinals coaches seem to be looking for. 

Los Angeles Rams

Projected 2026 starter: Matthew Stafford

When Stafford and the Rams were exploring their options this offseason, which included the quarterback working out the framework for lucrative contract offers from the Giants and Raiders in potential trades, it never quite felt like the situation would end with Stafford going anywhere else besides Los Angeles because of how well the match between the two sides has gone. Now with over half the season in the books, the Raiders and Giants are each stuck on two wins with bigger problems than quarterback play, while Stafford and the Rams are MVP and Super Bowl contenders. 

Theoretically, the Rams and Stafford could go through the commitment song-and-dance for the third straight offseason, but I’m not sure there’s anything left to haggle about. Stafford got the new contract he was seeking last offseason to raise his salary to more respectable levels. The Rams would be hard-pressed to find an upgrade from Stafford on short notice, though they have been keeping an eye on the future and will likely draft a quarterback either in 2026 or 2027. 

If the Rams win the Super Bowl, I could see Stafford electing to retire at the top of the mountain and go out on a high note. He turns 38 in early February. If that happens, the Rams could go with current veteran backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo as a bridge option until they can find a long-term successor. 

Seattle Seahawks

Projected 2026 starter: Sam Darnold

Sunday’s NFC West heavyweight bout with the Rams was an unfortunate setback for Darnold, who was harassed into four interceptions and has officially fallen into a rut when it comes to playing Los Angeles. It’s a disconcerting reminder of the floor that’s present in Darnold’s game but it also unfortunately overshadows the real progress Darnold has made this season. 

Entering Week 11, Darnold was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt and leading the NFL in both ANY/A and total QBR (a proprietary ESPN metric that uses EPA per play as a key ingredient). He’d been sacked just 10 times despite playing for a Seattle offensive line that’s still not necessarily a strength. Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak deserves some credit for scheming Darnold into spots to be successful, but Darnold has also made legitimate improvements with his reactions to pressure and his decision-making. 

If Darnold doesn’t turn in too many more pumpkins like the loss to the Rams, he’s setting himself up for a solid run in Seattle. His contract contained an out after this season but it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks dumping Darnold after their 7-3 start to the year. He might even put himself in line for an extension if he keeps outperforming his current contract. Seattle did draft QB Jalen Milroe in the third round this past year, but Darnold is playing well enough to keep him on the bench for a long, long time.