Ninety percent of the NFL is now stuck looking ahead to the offseason, where free agency and the draft will fuel the eternal hope of “next year.” Plenty of outlets have started sending out top 2024 free agents list, and we’re no different. Our Nate Bouda recently compiled a Top 100 2024 Free Agents list. 

But the challenge with any free agent list is sorting through all of the moves that will happen before the league year kicks off in mid-March. Some players will sign deals to stay, some players will be franchise-tagged. 

So in this article, we’re going one layer deeper to project a “realistic” top 25 free agents, subtracting players who the early tea leaves suggest won’t be on the open market. Obviously things are quite fluid this time of year and some of these players haven’t even had their exit interviews yet. But we’ll take a crack at projecting things anyway. 

Here’s the list of players I don’t expect to reach free agency this offseason: 

1. Bengals WR Tee Higgins
2. Jaguars OLB Josh Allen
3. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson
4. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins
5. Buccaneers S Antoine Winfield Jr.
6. Panthers OLB Brian Burns
7. Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins
8. Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr.
9. Ravens DT Justin Madubuike
10. Giants RB Saquon Barkley

And here’s the why: 

Bengals WR Tee Higgins

It was a tough year for Higgins. Either he was hurt or his quarterback was hurt for most of the season, and he finished with a career-low 42 receptions for 656 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games. But he had a few blowup games that served as a reminder his talent didn’t go anywhere. 

Long-term, it’s fair to wonder if the Bengals will be able to keep Higgins with QB Joe Burrow making $55 million a year and WR Ja’Marr Chase eligible for a new deal that will likely come in north of $30 million annually. Higgins himself could be in the neighborhood of $23-$25 million per season, and reports this summer indicated he and Cincinnati didn’t get close on an extension. 

However, there are several indications the Bengals don’t plan to just throw their hands up and let Higgins walk. They had zero interest in a trade last year going into the final year of Higgins’ rookie deal, with de facto GM Duke Tobin saying it wasn’t their job to develop players for other teams. Burrow said after the season he expected Higgins to be with the team in 2024, and while he’s not the GM, his voice carries a lot of influence. The Bengals should have north of $50 million in cap space to work with this offseason and can afford to tag Higgins at around $21 million without hamstringing their budget. 

This buys Cincinnati more time to negotiate with Higgins or find a long-term replacement. It also keeps their three best offensive players together for another year to chase a Super Bowl. I would also fade the chances of a tag-and-trade scenario, as the Bengals are one of the most conservative organizations in football when it comes to trades. 

Jaguars OLB Josh Allen

The Jaguars and Allen were unable to come to terms on a long-term deal before the season, as the edge rusher market largely stalled outside of a deal for 49ers DE Nick Bosa. Allen also bet on himself and it will pay off in a huge way. After two years in the range of seven sacks, Allen exploded for 17.5 sacks in 2023 and was one of the NFL’s most productive pass rushers. 

For a Jaguars’ team trying to get over the hump in the AFC, there’s no way they can let their best pass rusher walk for nothing. Jacksonville’s not flush with cap space and the tag for Allen will be in the range of $22-$23 million. But retaining Allen has to be the top priority. The tag will buy the Jaguars more time to do a deal that will probably end up somewhere between $25 and $30 million a year. 

Bears CB Jaylon Johnson

Johnson was a buzzy name at the trade deadline as other teams inquired to see if Chicago was willing to move him like they were LB Roquan Smith the year before. Bears GM Ryan Poles knew from early contract talks that he and Smith weren’t going to agree on a number, so he pulled the trigger on a deal. There were similar vibes with Johnson, but Poles held firm and Johnson responded with a career year in 2023. He picked off four passes, knocked down 10 more and earned his first career Pro Bowl nod. 

Now it would be a surprise to see Johnson leave Chicago, one way or another. Poles and Johnson both spoke much more positively about the situation at the end of the season. The Bears have the franchise tag which will be in the range of $18-$19 million to ensure Johnson is on the team in 2024. Chicago also has plenty of cap space to be able to afford the tag and no other candidates. It’s a virtual lock the Bears tag Johnson as a precursor to working out a long-term deal to keep someone who is viewed as a foundational player. 

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins

Most of the players on this list won’t make it to free agency because their teams can use the franchise tag. That’s not the case with Minnesota and Cousins, who negotiated a no-tag clause last year in exchange for restructuring his contract. If Cousins wants to be a free agent and play somewhere else, he has a path to the open market. And even with his Achilles injury, a quarterback of his caliber hitting the open market would set off a bidding war. 

However, I don’t think Cousins wants to leave the Vikings. The veteran is a relentless creature of routine, and I don’t think he’d relish the idea of starting over in a new city with a new team. He and his family have both put roots down in the Minnesota area. It’s also clear Cousins and HC Kevin O’Connell have a great relationship, with a lot of mutual respect and belief between the two of them. The locker room has come out in support of Cousins, and the reality is it would be a lot easier for the Vikings to get worse at quarterback than better. When Cousins went down midseason, he was arguably playing some of the best football of his career.

After the injury, multiple reports indicated both Cousins and the team would be interested in another contract. The two sides still have to sit down together and hammer it out, though. At that point, we’ll see how well their expectations mesh. Does Cousins want a multi-year commitment? Do the Vikings feel comfortable doing that for a 35-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles?

Time will tell, but for now, my hunch is another deal together makes the most sense for both sides. 

Panthers OLB Brian Burns

Another pass rusher who didn’t get a deal before the season started, Burns and the Panthers have been gridlocked since Carolina turned down an absolute haul for him at the deadline in 2022 from the Rams. That gave Burns a ton of leverage in negotiations, and his asking price reportedly reflected that. 

But after a regime change in Carolina and a step back statistically to just eight sacks in 2023, Burns’ leverage is not quite as strong as it was last summer. He’s had one double-digit sack season in five seasons and that will hurt him if he still wants north of $25 million per season, even if his pass-rushing efficiency numbers were still quite solid. Carolina’s defense played from behind for most of 2023 and there were fewer opportunities to get after the quarterback. 

Put all of it together, and it feels likely the Panthers tag Burns — it’d be an awful look for one of their best players to get away for nothing — and the two sides wait and see how the market for pass rushers shakes out. That could perhaps generate some momentum to get a deal done that both sides are happy with. Otherwise, Burns could bet on himself in another contract year. 

Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins

Wilkins was one of the few defensive tackles who didn’t sign a lucrative long-term extension last offseason as the market for the position boomed. Miami and Wilkins’ reps had a difference of opinion about his value because up until this year, Wilkins wasn’t as dangerous a pass rusher. From 2021 to 2022, Wilkins had eight sacks in total. He topped that number in 2023 alone by notching nine sacks this past season. 

One way or another, Wilkins is about to get paid. He’d be a hot commodity as an unrestricted free agent, but it’s much more likely the Dolphins use the franchise tag to keep him at $20 million in 2024 or more, and start negotiating a long-term deal from there. Miami will have to be careful as it only has limited cap space this coming offseason and a long list of pending free agents. It’d be fair to put Wilkins at the top, though. 

Colts WR Michael Pittman

While the Colts have been wary about being big spenders in the past, they have usually been willing to pay up to extend their own players — with last year’s saga with RB Jonathan Taylor the lone exception and even that ended in a deal. So one way or another, I don’t expect Pittman to be playing anywhere else in 2024. The franchise tag for receivers will be around $21 million and that’s likely the starting point for discussions about a new deal for Pittman. 

The two sides could get into a debate about if Pittman is a true No. 1 receiver. He set new career highs with 109 catches for 1,152 yards in 2023, which is really good but a tier below some of the elite producers at the position. Regardless, he’s the top receiver in Indianapolis and the Colts have a ton of financial flexibility with QB Anthony Richardson’s rookie deal. They’ll be looking to maximize that, and letting Pittman go would be the opposite of that. 

Buccaneers S Antoine Winfield Jr.

Winfield had a terrific season in 2023 with six sacks, six forced fumbles, 12 PDs and three interceptions. He had a legitimate case as a Pro Bowl snub that thankfully was rectified in part by first-team AP All-Pro honors. There’s little chance the upstart Buccaneers let him walk as one of their core pieces on defense. 

If Tampa Bay doesn’t sign Winfield to an extension outright, the tag is a legitimate possibility. It should be in the range of $17 million for safeties in 2024. They’ve gone this route with other players in the past, including WR Chris Godwin and OLB Shaquil Barrett. The rub will be if they need the tag for their quarterback after a breakout season. 

Ravens DT Justin Madubuike

One of the biggest breakout players of the entire 2023 season, Madubuike was a force and a catalyst for Baltimore’s dominant 2023 defensive performance. He was the Ravens’ best pass rusher with 13 sacks — a staggering total for a defensive tackle. With the way the defensive tackle market surged last year, the timing could not have been better for Madubuike. 

Commanders DT Daron Payne parlayed a double-digit sack season after a few years of more inconsistent play into a deal worth $22.5 million annually last offseason. That should be the floor for a long-term deal for Madubuike at this point, but teams can sometimes be hesitant about defensive tackles who radically boost their sack totals in a contract year. The Ravens won’t want to lose Madubuike but they also won’t want to overpay, which is why he’s a candidate for the tag. 

The challenge with that is Baltimore doesn’t have a lot of cap flexibility with less than $10 million in effective cap space in 2024 right now. They’d need to clear more room to tag Madubuike and that transaction would eat up nearly all of their cap space. In the past, the Ravens have been willing to let notable players test the market and play the compensatory pick game, trusting in their ability to draft and develop replacements. They’ll do that with some other players this year, I’m just not sure they’ll do it with Madubuike. 

Giants RB Saquon Barkley

Keeping Barkley was a major priority for the Giants last season, even if they didn’t want to commit to him on a long-term deal. You could argue that they’d be even less likely to want to pay him after another year of wear and tear, but the disaster that was the 2023 season in New York has put a lot of people on the hot seat. The Giants need 2024 to look more like 2022 than 2023, and there’s no denying Barkley is a huge part of the offense still. 

The Giants can also use the tag on Barkley again at a little over $12 million, which is an affordable option to keep him in 2024. Barkley would hate it and likely would hold out again, but it would keep him in New York and potentially keep the door open to a new deal, which is Barkley’s stated goal in addition to a lucrative second contract. 

Top 25 ‘Realistic’ NFL Free Agents

1 – Chiefs DT Chris Jones

In his quest to get $30 million a year from the Chiefs this offseason, Jones held out Week 1 before reaching a compromise to return in exchange for some additional incentives. Things should be far less complicated in 2024. If the Chiefs tag Jones, it will cost them 120 percent of his 2023 cap hit which works out to $32.16 million. That’s an impractical one-year figure, so it’s likely Jones tests free agency. 

At that point, he’ll be able to gauge what other teams offer versus what the Chiefs have on the table, and can decide if staying in Kansas City is worth the discount. 

2 – Buccaneers WR Mike Evans

Similar to Jones, it would be impractical for the Bucs to tag Evans because of the way the 120 percent rule would inflate the tag. He counted $23.7 million against the cap in 2023 so the tag would be $28.44 million. Just like Jones, Evans will get the chance to test the open market, see what’s out there, and then decide if it’s worth playing for a new team for the first time in his 10-year career. 

3 – Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield

The market for Mayfield is going to be fascinating to watch unfold this offseason after the former No. 1 pick had a big bounceback year. He set career highs with 4,044 yards passing and 28 touchdowns while throwing just 10 interceptions. His sack percentage was the third-best mark of his career, and most importantly he helped get the Buccaneers into the playoffs for the fourth straight season despite saying goodbye to Tom Brady. 

It’s still clear Mayfield isn’t an elite quarterback but he’s also proven he’s good enough to be one of the 32 starters. How his camp and the Buccaneers sort through putting a financial value on that will likely determine whether the mutual interest in a return turns into reality.

Quarterback deals have historically been all-or-nothing propositions, but last year we started to see a middle-class market for quarterbacks develop with $25 million-per-year deals for Seahawks QB Geno Smith and Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo. The Saints gave QB Derek Carr a deal above that at $37.5 million per season, and the franchise tag for quarterbacks would be $36 million, so those are two other data points to consider. 

I don’t think it’s out of the question the Buccaneers would tag Mayfield but I also think there’s a possibility they’d be willing to let him test the market under the assumption that a Carr-style deal would be richer than what most teams want to pay. I think he ends up closer to the $25 million benchmark and I think that’s a number the Bucs would be comfortable with. 

4 – 49ers DE Chase Young

The 49ers have some cap flexibility to work with this offseason but I don’t think they’ll be rushing to back up the Brinks truck for Young just yet. The former No. 2 overall pick should have a chance to test his market, and while he started the year hot he finished with just 7.5 sacks, including 2.5 in nine games after being traded to San Francisco.

Like Jadeveon Clowney a few years ago, it feels more likely Young will sign a one-year, prove-it deal to set himself up for a mega deal in the future. 

5 – Vikings OLB Danielle Hunter

Hunter also got a no-tag clause from the Vikings as a result of a contract dispute this offseason, so the 29-year-old has a straight shot to unrestricted free agency where he should be in enormous demand. Hunter had 16.5 sacks this season and has put together back-to-back 17-game seasons after playing just seven games from 2020-2021. 

6 – Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed

It’s not so much that I don’t think the Chiefs would love to keep Sneed, who has been one of the top success stories from their draft-and-develop philosophy in the Mahomes era. It’s that Kansas City has consistently let players who want top-of-the-market money walk, and Sneed has earned himself a lot of money this offseason. 

7 – Cardinals WR Marquise Brown

I don’t know that Brown has been productive enough for the Cardinals to seriously consider using the franchise tag on him at over $20 million, even if Arizona would like to keep him around. That means Brown will get a chance to test free agency. He’s good friends with Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, which could be a tiebreaker in Arizona’s favor if they’re willing to match what he gets from another team. Another team may value him more than the Cardinals will, however. 

8 – Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

Like Barkley, Jacobs is a candidate to be tagged for the second year in a row. But when Las Vegas got him to end his training camp holdout, they increased his 2023 compensation to $11.7 million, and as a result a tag would be more than $14 million instead of $12 million. Still, that might not be a dealbreaker one way or another.

While new Raiders HC Antonio Pierce talked glowing about Jacobs when he took over as the interim this past season, backup RB Zamir White had some promising moments in relief of Jacobs down the stretch. The team also has to decide whether it wants to invest in a contract extension for a running back. All told, there’s a lot of uncertainty over where Jacobs plays in 2024. 

9 – Rams G Kevin Dotson

Acquiring Dotson in a preseason trade from the Steelers was a massive coup for the Rams, one of a few key personnel decisions that fueled their surprise run to the playoffs. Now it’ll be interesting to see what happens next. The Rams aren’t nearly as broke as they were last year, and would love not to take a step back along the offensive line again. But they also don’t break the bank for non-premium positions, so another team could go past the number they have in mind to re-sign Dotson. 

10 – Commanders CB Kendall Fuller

While the veteran Fuller still has some gas left in the tank, the Commanders are about to embark on a serious rebuild and likely won’t have interest in spending to retain a 29-year-old cornerback. 

11 – Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley

In terms of yards and touchdowns, Ridley had the second-best season of his career in 2023 for the Jaguars. He caught 76 passes for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns and was Jacksonville’s leading receiver in those last two categories. But it’s safe to say like the Jaguars, Ridley didn’t necessarily meet the lofty preseason expectations, and some of the underlying numbers reflect that. He had the lowest catch percentage and lowest success rate of his career. 

Moving forward, the Jaguars have a tricky situation with Ridley. If they sign him to a long-term deal before the draft, they have to send the Falcons a second-round pick instead of the third they’re currently slated to lose. Ridley is already 29, which makes negotiating an extension tricky on top of giving up the pick. Those factors make me think there’s a strong chance Ridley tests free agency. 

It’s not clear how the franchise tag would factor into this in terms of the trade conditions. Jacksonville also might not have the tag available if they have to use it on Allen. But the team could use a player like Ridley, so they’ll be incentivized to try and figure this out somehow. 

12 – Jets DE Bryce Huff

Huff has been one of the top situational pass rushers in football over the past couple of years, and now he’ll get his chance for a big deal and a bigger role with another team. Even if Huff is a one-trick pony, the NFL puts a high value on the trick he does well. 

13 – Dolphins OLB Andrew Van Ginkel

Per PFF, Van Ginkel took his game to another level this past year. He’s played a lot of snaps for Miami over the past few years and re-signed with the team as an unrestricted free agent after seeing some lukewarm interest last offseason. Now he’s poised to cash in as long as the foot injury that ended his season isn’t too serious. While he was credited with just six sacks, PFF graded him as a top-ten edge rusher and one of the more efficient players with the opportunities he was given to get after the quarterback. 

14 – Titans RB Derrick Henry

While 30-year-old running backs don’t tend to do well as free agents, Henry is a unicorn and has been for his entire career. He’s led the NFL in carries in four of the past five seasons and led the NFL in rushing twice. He’s topped 1,000 yards in four of the past five years and the exception was 937 yards in just eight games in 2021. It’s fair to wonder if he’ll find a team willing to build its entire offense around him like the Titans were, however. 

15 – Patriots LT Trent Brown

Brown is a maddeningly inconsistent player who has struggled to perform in environments that aren’t rigid, like New England — and even with the Patriots he wore out his welcome. But when he’s on his game, he’s a legitimate starter at a premium position, so another team will roll the dice. 

16 – Ravens OLB Jadeveon Clowney

The ultimate NFL mercenary, Clowney was a perfect fit with the Ravens and tied a career-high with 9.5 sacks in 2023. But expect him to chase a paycheck in free agency like he’s always done and go to the highest bidder. He’ll likely make more than the $2.5 million Baltimore gave him this past season. 

17 – Browns DE Za’Darius Smith

Although the 31-year-old Smith’s sack totals fell to just 5.5 in 2023, he was still a threat to get to the quarterback. His pass rush grade from PFF was the second-highest of his career as he was used in more of a rotation. His next team likely won’t sign him to be a full-time starter but he still has some juice. 

18 – Seahawks DL Leonard Williams

Seattle traded for Williams to help push their defense over the top in the second half of the season. But while the Seahawks defense regressed, Williams did his part. He recorded four of his five sacks and nine of his 10 tackles for loss in 10 games with the Seahawks. The Seahawks were clear when they traded for him that they wanted to keep him, but a tag would be 144 percent of his 2023 cap hit, which would work out to more than $27 million. That’s not practical, so Williams has a path to test free agency if he wants. 

19 – Seahawks LB Bobby Wagner

Two things can be true at once. Wagner has been one of the best linebackers of the past decade and is still playing at a strong level. He’s also lost a step or three. It’ll be interesting to see how the Seahawks proceed with him this offseason and what kind of interest he gets elsewhere. 

20 – Dolphins C Connor Williams

Williams was having a breakout season as a center for the Dolphins up until tearing his ACL in early December. That timing could impact him, as he’ll be rehabbing the injury during free agency and potentially during the run-up to the 2024 season. It could make it easier for Miami to keep him. He’s on the young side for a third contract as he turns 27 this year. 

21 – Dolphins G Robert Hunt

Miami is going to have to make some tough decisions with a long list of pending free agents this offseason and only so much cap room to bring players back. Hunt has improved every season and could find a strong market in free agency from teams looking to solidify their offensive line. 

22 – Cowboys RB Tony Pollard

Pollard was the model of efficiency for four years in Dallas behind starting RB Ezekiel Elliott, leading to calls from fans and fantasy analysts to give him the lead role and more work. They got what they asked for in 2023 and Pollard had the least efficient year of his career. It’s highly unlikely Dallas tags him again and it could explore upgrading at the position, or bringing in another back to split carries. 

23 – Eagles RB D’Andre Swift

It’s tough to gauge where Swift’s 2023 season leaves him. On the one hand, he topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career and showed he could be a lead back. On the other, he was a factor in Philadelphia’s inconsistency on offense. It’s a crowded class of free-agent running backs, too, which could push everyone’s value down. But the bright side is the draft class looks abnormally weak at the position, which will help the value of the veteran market. 

24 – Ravens LB Patrick Queen

Strong linebacker play has helped fuel the Ravens’ top-ranked defense this year, with last year’s trade for LB Roquan Smith paying huge dividends. Queen’s game has taken another step since then, and he should enter free agency in a good spot. Baltimore spent a third-round pick on a linebacker last year and paid Smith big bucks, so it’s likely they wish Queen well and move on, despite using a first-round pick on him. 

25 – Panthers LB Frankie Luvu

Former Panthers GM Scott Fitterer didn’t have many hits in three years in Carolina, but getting Luvu was an unqualified home run. The Jets declined to tender Luvu as a restricted free agent in 2021 and the Panthers got him on a deal for practically the minimum. He flashed as a rotational player and Fitterer gambled by signing him to a two-year, $9 million deal. Luvu has far exceeded that deal too and now the 27-year-old is positioned to make a lot more than $9 million, with Carolina likely to make a strong effort to try and re-sign him.