Which Coaches Could Be On The Hot Seat In 2025?

What first looked to be a quiet hiring cycle with just five vacancies turned into one that more closely represents the average league turnover from season to season. Seven vacancies following the Raiders and Cowboys joining the fray is right in line with the average. 

Had that not happened, the 2026 hiring cycle would have had a chance to reach double-digit teams in search of new head coaches. Even so, it’s shaping up to be another active year as the wheels of change grind on. The harsh truth is that while owners may rail against expensive buyouts and talk a big game about staying patient, any head coach who misses the playoffs in back-to-back seasons is in trouble. Often it takes much less. 

Here’s a look ahead at which coaches are going into the 2025 season already on the hot seat and which ones could join them by the end of the season: 

Flaming

This group was on the hot seat this past year and will enter 2025 on shaky ground

Giants HC Brian Daboll

Lots of people expected the Giants to fire Daboll and GM Joe Schoen after a three-win 2024 season, one that was even worse than a miserable six-win 2023 season that had Daboll on last year’s version of this article. Instead, Giants owner John Mara issued a stay of execution — though his end-of-season presser made it clear it was because Mara was prioritizing continuity for the sake of continuity after firing his last three coaches Ben McAdoo, Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge after just two years apiece. Mara couldn’t articulate any particularly strong conviction about Schoen and Daboll’s body of work to this point. 

Time on the job won’t be a factor in 2025 as Schoen and Daboll go into Year 4. While the two still need to figure out a long-term solution at quarterback, they will be under tremendous pressure to show results, rookie quarterback or not. I don’t think Mara is necessarily expecting a playoff berth — although the success of the Texans and Commanders the past two years shows a quick turnaround like that is possible — but New York must show some progress. 

Daboll was hired because of his work with Bills QB Josh Allen and he did a good job of maximizing former Giants QB Daniel Jones in his first season in 2022. He has to get back to that with whoever is under center for the Giants this year and make that the story of the season instead of strife with the coaching staff or effort questions with players. Schoen also needs to have a far better offseason than his past two after some high-profile miscalculations. 

There is going to be massive pressure right from the jump on these two and the Giants are not a team that can afford a slow start to the 2025 season. If next year opens up as poorly as this past year ended, it’s quite possible that Daboll and Schoen don’t even make it to Halloween. 

Titans HC Brian Callahan

Callahan avoided the ire of Titans owner Amy Adams Strunk, with GM Ran Carthon taking the fall for Tennessee’s awful 2024 season after just two years on the job. The various statements the team released after firing Carthon indicated a good amount of belief in Callahan, who the team jumped to hire last year. However, it was also made clear that Callahan needs results. 

To figure out where Callahan stands, I think it’s instructive to recap how the Titans got here: 

• Strunk fired former GM Jon Robinson during the 2022 season which was Robinson’s only losing season since taking over in 2016 and with the Titans coming off three straight playoff appearances (although a string of failed draft picks and the horrible trade of WR A.J. Brown to the Eagles marred his record). 
• Strunk hired Carthon to replace Robinson after being wowed during the process, and she liked Carthon so much that she gave him a promotion and extension after just one year in which the Titans finished 6-11. 
• Former HC Mike Vrabel was the fall guy for that season, getting the surprise axe from Strunk after the season ended. The team also hired Chad Brinker away from the Packers for a front office role, and Carthon helped hire Callahan. 
• Brinker impressed Strunk so much last year despite the Titans going 3-14 and seeing nearly all of their big offseason additions flop that she promoted him to head all football operations, leapfrogging Carthon who was fired. Brinker helped spearhead the hire of new GM Mike Borgonzi from the Chiefs. 

Judging by recent history, another losing season from Callahan could be enough to get him fired with Strunk falling in love with the latest flavor of the month. At absolute minimum, Callahan probably needs to win a lot more than three games and show Tennessee is headed in the right direction on offense, including finding a quarterback to build around. 

Colts HC Shane Steichen

There are some uncanny parallels between Steichen and Daboll. Both were candidates with backgrounds on offense who got their head coaching opportunities because of their reputation as quarterback whisperers — Daboll with Allen in Buffalo, Steichen with Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and Chargers QB Justin Herbert. Both had success in Year 1 with unheralded quarterbacks. Steichen came a play away from winning the AFC South with Gardner Minshew under center in 2023. 

But for as much as it felt like Steichen hit all the right buttons in his first year, he failed to translate that same success to Year 2. Supposed franchise QB Anthony Richardson did not take a step forward in what was effectively his rookie year, instead regressing to the point that Steichen benched him for veteran QB Joe Flacco — a short-lived experiment to try and resurrect flailing playoff hopes in Indianapolis that fizzled when Flacco failed to play materially better than Richardson. 

Beyond that, there were unforced errors with Steichen’s handling of issues in the press, including injuries and Richardson’s benching. The Colts’ culture inside the building also came under fire, both internally and externally, with critiques of work habits and accountability. Despite all this, Indianapolis was still in the mix for a playoff spot until late in the year before high-profile collapses against the Broncos and the Giants. 

As damning as the losses and the reported culture issues were, Colts owner Jim Irsay elected to stand pat after the season, keeping GM Chris Ballard alongside Steichen and Richardson rather than enacting piecemeal changes or doing a clean sweep. That sets the stage for 2025 to be a massively important season for everyone in the organization. Ballard has to help the team break through after eight years of middling results. Steichen has to help Richardson or someone emerge at quarterback, and Richardson himself has to take a leap. Otherwise there could be a clean sweep.  

Warm

In danger if the results don’t improve

Browns HC Kevin Stefanski

There was speculation but not serious heat on Stefanski this past year as the Browns floundered. It seems owner Jimmy Haslam put the blame on Cleveland’s underperformance on the failures of QB Deshaun Watson, who continued to look like a shell of his former self in 2024 despite further attempts by the Browns to cater the offense to him. While Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry were responsible for trading for Watson and signing him to a fully guaranteed contract that will weigh the team down for years, Haslam apparently is not holding them solely responsible for that mistake. 

Both Berry and Stefanski will get a chance to try and navigate the Browns out of this mess. Their options are still limited because of Watson’s contract, so I suspect Haslam will have some grace and patience. How much exactly is unclear. Before hiring Stefanski and Berry, Haslam had a reputation as one of the most impatient and meddling owners in the league. Stefanski has earned a lot of latitude with two playoff appearances and two Coach of the Year awards for Cleveland, but not an unlimited amount. 

Ultimately it will probably come down to the quarterback, as it so often does in the NFL. Stefanski and Berry screwed up with Watson. If it becomes clear in 2025 that they screwed up at the position again, they might not get a third strike. 

Bengals HC Zac Taylor

Taylor survived with just six wins in his first two seasons and the Bengals historically have been one of the most patient organizations in football when it comes to staffing decisions. Taylor is also just the third coach in team history to reach the Super Bowl and has established a good relationship with QB Joe Burrow. 

But the fact is the Bengals have missed the playoffs in each of the past two seasons with 9-8 records. Burrow missed half the 2023 season but Cincinnati was still just 5-5 in the games he started. They squandered what could have been an MVP season from Burrow this past year because of another slow start — Taylor is 7-14-1 all-time in the month of September — and because of a porous defense that has regressed each year since making the Super Bowl in 2021. 

That led to Taylor firing DC Lou Anarumo, who had been in Cincinnati as long as he had. If the results don’t improve in 2025, it’s safe to say Taylor could be next on the chopping block. Having a player like Burrow creates greater urgency from everyone involved to maximize the opportunity. 

Falcons HC Raheem Morris

The Falcons were looking for a head coach who could help elevate what they felt was a roster good enough to contend if it got a quarterback, and they passed over Bill Belichick to hire Morris after three straight years of 7-10 seasons under former HC Arthur Smith. Atlanta took two shots at landing a potential franchise starter, signing veteran QB Kirk Cousins to a deal worth $100 million guaranteed and spending the No. 9 pick on QB Michael Penix Jr. Yet there was no breakthrough. Morris finished 8-9 in his first season and Atlanta missed the playoffs for the seventh straight year. 

The team is moving ahead with Penix instead of Cousins in 2025, and it seems like the failings of 2024 will be pinned largely on Cousins and former DC Jimmy Lake, who will be replaced by former Jets DC Jeff Ulbrich. Even though this will be Penix’s first full season as the starter, Atlanta is not shying away from expectations in 2025 given how high they drafted him and how much they’ve raved about him. 

So if the Falcons miss the playoffs yet again, it would not be that surprising to see owner Arthur Blank, who turns 83 this year, shake things up again in an effort to win a championship in what for him could be a short window. 

Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel

2025 will be the fourth season for McDaniel in Miami, and his resume so far with the Dolphins is interesting to parse. He has two playoff appearances in three years, equal to the amount his predecessors across the previous 20 years accomplished. He’s been one of the most innovative offensive minds and play-callers in the league, designing an offense that was No. 6 in total yards in 2022 and No. 11 in scoring before improving to No. 1 and No. 2 in those categories in 2023. McDaniel also resurrected the career of QB Tua Tagovailoa which was on the ropes when he arrived. 

Yet for all the gaudy numbers, the offense has little margin for error. Injuries to Tagovailoa or the onset of cold weather have led to steep performance drops over McDaniel’s three seasons. Tagovailoa himself is a microcosm of that, piling up numbers early in the season and against unprepared opponents before wilting against top competition or in cold weather. McDaniel hasn’t won a playoff game yet and Miami’s playoff wins drought stretches back to the turn of the century. 

McDaniel was already talking about the need to evolve as a team going into this year, and the pressure for that should only increase with Tagovailoa’s injury history, his weight on the cap after signing a major extension this past summer and some of the culture issues McDaniel alluded to in his end-of-year press conference. Those in particular could be concerning, as the Dolphins also have a reputation as a soft team around the league. Fair or not, McDaniel’s non-traditional style and presentation will subject him to criticism if those two areas don’t improve. 

The Dolphins are at risk of stagnating, and a second season out of the playoffs would likely put McDaniel square on the hot seat despite how many positives there have been from his first three years. It shouldn’t be ignored either that Dolphins owner Stephen Ross turns 85 this year and could be feeling some urgency to try and spark a breakthrough. 

Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald

Judged as a first-time head coach, Macdonald had a solid debut with Seattle. He helped the Seahawks beat their preseason betting lines, won 10 games and oversaw a defense that improved notably over the course of the season. 

But Macdonald was hired to replace former HC Pete Carroll because ownership felt the team had plateaued over the previous few seasons. Seattle hasn’t won a playoff game since 2019 and went 7-10, 9-8 and 9-8 in Carroll’s final three years, making the playoffs in 2021 and missing in 2022. Macdonald was supposed to raise the ceiling for this team and despite winning 10 games, the result pretty much was the same. 

That’s important to set the expectations going forward, as coaches don’t get fired for losing so much as they get fired for not meeting expectations. If Macdonald misses the playoffs two years in a row, there will be hard questions asked by ownership, although it’s possible GM John Schneider could face more scrutiny. 

Cool for now

These coaches are performing in line with expectations but need to maintain/show progress in 2025

Panthers HC Dave Canales

When Carolina hired Canales last year, he received a six-year contract — an acknowledgement both of the steep rebuilding job the Panthers faced and owner Dave Tepper’s reputation as a trigger-happy boss. Tepper at least seems to have some level of self-awareness about his reputation and made efforts to take a step back, at least publicly, this year. Canales did his part and while Carolina won just five games, they were competitive in nearly every matchup in the second half of the year, including against teams like the Chiefs and Eagles. 

More importantly, Canales helped QB Bryce Young look a lot more like the quarterback Carolina thought it was getting with the No. 1 pick in 2023. Building on that progress will be important. The Panthers might not have to make the playoffs but they can’t afford to backslide from five wins. 

Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles

As someone who has highlighted Bowles in more than one hot seat article, including last year, I am starting to come around on the veteran coach. The results speak for themselves. Bowles has three straight NFC South titles since taking over in 2022. While the South has been one of the weakest divisions in football and Bowles has accomplished that with just a 27-24 record, it still counts as sustained success. Go back two years ago, and there would have been way more people who would have guessed the Buccaneers would have earned the No. 1 pick rather than win the division back-to-back with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. 

Still, I think there’s probably a ceiling that a Bowles-coached team is going to hit. There are parallels to draw with former Panthers and Commanders HC Ron Rivera, who was also a solid, high-floor coach. Rivera reached a Super Bowl in 2015 but he had the benefit of an MVP season from QB Cam Newton and never recorded consecutive winning seasons. Rivera wasn’t an aggressive in-game decision-maker but he was more aggressive than Bowles. 

The other factor here is the offensive play-caller. Tampa Bay fortunately held onto OC Liam Coen this year despite serious interest from the Jaguars. Had he taken that job, Bowles would have been looking for his fourth offensive coordinator in as many seasons. He fired OC Byron Leftwich following his first year in 2022, hired and lost Canales in 2023, then struck gold again with Coen. Still, Bowles may have only forestalled Coen leaving for a year, as quality offensive play-callers are always in high demand. 

It’s worth noting that the Buccaneers once pushed out a defensive-minded coach (Lovie Smith) in order to promote an offensive coordinator who was starting to build buzz around the league (Dirk Koetter). If Bowles is unable to eventually break through in Tampa Bay, history could repeat itself with Coen. At minimum, it could push the organization toward a candidate with a background on offense. 

Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon

When Gannon arrived last year alongside GM Monti Ossenfort, it was expected to take multiple years to rebuild the Cardinals. Year 1 was about setting expectations, building the culture and figuring out if QB Kyler Murray or another player was the solution at quarterback. Murray played the team out of position to draft a highly-touted prospect, answering that question going into Year 2. 

This past season was supposed to be about continuing to add talent to the roster and taking a step forward, not necessarily competing for the playoffs. Yet the Cardinals were in first place in the NFC West at 6-4 going into their bye in Week 11. They wilted down the stretch with three straight losses, two to the Seahawks and one to the Vikings, and an overall 2-5 record to close out the year that also included losses to the Rams and Panthers. Arizona’s 8-9 record was right in line with the plan, it just felt a little different because they wasted a chance to do more. 

Now it’s Year 3 and this should be when Gannon and Ossenfort are transitioning from rebuilding to competing. Arizona has a quarterback they believe in and a full war chest of draft picks and cap space to keep improving the team. This is where the fruits of what they’ve been building the past two years should be realized. If not, some seats could start to get warm. 

Eagles HC Nick Sirianni

Fair or not, expectations are just different in Philadelphia. Sirianni’s seat was blazing in 2023 after the defense collapsed and the Eagles fell with it, going from 10-1 to 11-6 and bounced in the first round of the playoffs. Changing out both coordinators was enough for Sirianni to stay, and the Eagles are back on top of the NFC with a berth in this weekend’s NFC title game. If the Eagles make a second Super Bowl under Sirianni, one would think that would earn him a little more margin for error in the future. But this type of success is what the Eagles expect every year, which is a high bar for Sirianni to maintain. 

Wildcards

Unexpected situations that could lead to a coaching change

Steelers HC Mike Tomlin

Pittsburgh’s playoff victory drought extended to eight years with the Steelers’ loss to the Ravens in the wildcard round, and that’s starting to put more of the spotlight on Tomlin despite the fact most didn’t expect Pittsburgh to even make the playoffs this season. It’s hard to see the Steelers ever firing Tomlin, and they extended his contract this past year when there were similar questions coming off another first-round exit. 

However, the Bears inquired this offseason about a potential trade for Tomlin and were reportedly not the only team. Tomlin has come up as a trade candidate multiple times over the years, and if he ever left the Steelers it seems more likely that it would be that way with both sides ready for a fresh start. It wasn’t in the cards this offseason but who knows what the future holds. 

49ers HC Kyle Shanahan

The 49ers went 6-11 this season when they were expected to compete for a Super Bowl, so some level of frustration regarding Shanahan was probably natural. But it felt like a lot of pent-up frustrations about how San Francisco has fallen short overall in Shanahan’s tenure, both in the NFC championship and Super Bowl, boiled over in 2024. Whether it was fans or certain factions of the media lobbying for Shanahan to be fired, or trade speculation rooted in nothing of substance, the heat around Shanahan was unlike anything since maybe his second season. 

Missing the playoffs in consecutive seasons is bad no matter who the coach is, so that’s worth acknowledging heading into 2025. Still, it’s also worth pointing out that Shanahan is far closer to the top of the coaching ranks than he is the bottom, and there would be teams falling over themselves backward to hire him if he ever gets out of San Francisco. 

Rams HC Sean McVay

For a couple of years, there was major buzz that McVay was considering a break from coaching to relieve burnout, spend more time with family and explore the lucrative opportunities that awaited him in the broadcast booth. Those rumors have quieted substantially the past two years as McVay has seemingly renewed his commitment to the team but it’s worth filing away as something that could become a factor in the future. 

First-year head coaches

Since 2014, there have been 11 coaches who were fired after one year or less, with former Raiders HC Antonio Pierce and former Patriots HC Jerod Mayo joining that number after this past season. It’s developing into an annual occurrence, with 2020 and 2017 the only two years in the past decade without a first-year head coach firing.

What that means is there’s a strong chance one of the seven coaches hired to fill a vacancy this year is out by this time next year. Keep an eye on organizations with a long history of dysfunction or owners who have expectations the current personnel is not going to be able to support. Out of the seven vacancies, the only teams I’d be truly shocked to see pivot after just one year are the Patriots and the Cowboys.