2024 NFL Season Predictions Roundtable

With Week 1 on the horizon — and a couple of games already in the books — we’ve got a batch of staff predictions about the upcoming 2024 NFL season we’re sneaking in under the wire. All three of our analysis staffers took a crack at a survey about the upcoming season, giving our picks for everything from MVP to the impact of the new kickoff. 

2024 NFLTR Staff Predictions

Most Valuable Player

• Nate: Bengals QB Joe Burrow
• Logan: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
• Ethan: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

E: Much as I might want to get creative with this pick, Mahomes is set to go nuclear this season. The additions of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown will open up this offense and his numbers will be ridiculous.

Defensive Player Of The Year

• Nate: Browns DE Myles Garrett
• Logan: Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr.
• Ethan: Jets CB Sauce Gardner

L: Cornerbacks don’t win this award often but it can happen and it seems like there are some quality candidates this year. Both Gardner and Stingley have reportedly had monster training camps and are on defenses expected to be among the league’s best. 

Offensive Player Of The Year

• Nate: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson 
• Logan: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
• Ethan: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase

E: I’m really high on the Bengals this year. Chase is gonna remind everyone how good he is, and a healthy Burrow will feed him a lot of targets.

Offensive Rookie Of The Year

• Nate: Bears QB Caleb Williams
• Logan: Bears QB Caleb Williams
• Ethan: Bears QB Caleb Williams

L: If the Bears make the playoffs, it will take a massive performance from a different rookie to knock Williams out of the lead for this award. 

Defensive Rookie Of The Year

• Nate: Colts DE Laiatu Latu
• Logan: Seahawks DT Byron Murphy
• Ethan: Colts DE Laiatu Latu

E: The Colts have a deep defensive line but Latu should be their best pass rusher off the edge right away, especially with the season-ending injury for Samson Ebukam. Latu was practically unblockable in the preseason and PFF’s metrics had him rated as the best pass rusher to come out of the draft in years, ahead of guys like Nick Bosa and Chase Young. He’ll rack up sacks for a competitive team.

Coach Of The Year

• Nate: Falcons HC Raheem Morris
• Logan: Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald
• Ethan: Rams HC Sean McVay

E: The Rams are going to be good this year, and voters will take notice of what McVay does post-Aaron Donald retirement. This award is usually about exceeding expectations, and the Rams are expected to compete for the playoffs, but I think they could go a lot farther than that.

Super Bowl Participants

• Nate: Bengals/49ers
• Logan: Chiefs/Lions
• Ethan: Bengals/Rams

AFC East Winner

• Nate: Jets
• Logan: Bills
• Ethan: Jets

L: I nearly picked the Jets but I just can’t quite bring myself to buy in. It always seems like something goes wrong in New York and the last time we saw Aaron Rodgers play a full season, he didn’t play all that well. 

AFC North Winner

• Nate: Bengals
• Logan: Bengals
• Ethan: Bengals

AFC South Winner

• Nate: Texans
• Logan: Texans
• Ethan: Texans

AFC West Winner

• Nate: Chiefs
• Logan: Chiefs
• Ethan: Chiefs

NFC East Winner

• Nate: Eagles
• Logan: Eagles
• Ethan: Eagles

NFC North Winner

• Nate: Lions
• Logan: Lions
• Ethan: Lions

NFC South Winner

• Nate: Falcons
• Logan: Buccaneers
• Ethan: Falcons

L: The Falcons are the trendy pick, not just on staff here, but the Bucs have won the division for three straight years and are quietly looking better than last season. Atlanta has acted like it thinks it’s smarter than other teams all offseason and that usually doesn’t end well. 

NFC West Winner

• Nate: 49ers
• Logan: Seahawks
• Ethan: Rams

L: A true split! The NFC West looks like one of the most competitive divisions in football this year. 

Surprise Team

• Nate: Cardinals
• Logan: Seahawks
• Ethan: Seahawks

E: I’ve already discussed the Rams, so how about the Seahawks? They’ve been written off by much of the national media, but this is a sneakily talented defense and an offense that can bounce back. Watch for them to compete for the division title and earn a wild card berth.

Who Gets The No. 1 Pick?

• Nate: Panthers
• Logan: Patriots
• Ethan: Patriots

E: I think it’ll be the Patriots. There’s a chance their defense will notch them a few too many wins, but they have a tougher schedule than the Giants or Panthers, the other major contenders for this spot. This offensive line is so bad it seems they’re scared to play rookie QB Drake Maye, and the weapons on the outside are lacking.

First Coach Fired

• Nate: Saints HC Dennis Allen
• Logan: Saints HC Dennis Allen
• Ethan: Giants HC Brian Daboll

E: This one is tough, because it doesn’t seem like there are any coaches hanging on by a thread entering the year. I’ll say Brian Daboll, though it’s possible he’ll last until the end of the season. The Giants are going to be very bad, and Daboll didn’t handle the pressure of losing well last season. Another poor campaign and ownership will likely want to clean house, and Daboll may make his exit early if he displays similar traits to last season.

Boldest Prediction

Nate: No teams win more than 12 games, no No. 1 seeds in championship games

Logan: I have eight of them…

Ethan: The Rams making the Super Bowl is pretty bold, but I’ll say it’s that Anthony Richardson looks like a bona fide star by the end of the year. He’s flashed immense talent in the little we’ve seen of him, but also made plenty of rookie mistakes. He needs reps, and as long as he stays healthy, he’ll get them. The Colts should challenge the Texans for the division, and by the end of the year, Richardson will be a trendy pick for 2025 MVP.

What Is The New Kickoff Return Rate?

• Nate: 25%
• Logan: 50%
• Ethan: 44%

L: The league initially marketed the new “dynamic kickoff” as a way to skyrocket the return rate from last year when it bottomed out at 22 percent to above 80 percent — saving the kickoff and preventing it from going extinct. That was with a touchback coming out to the 35-yard line, though. The rule was tweaked to bring the touchback to the 30 to help it pass the approval vote this offseason. Unfortunately, that seems to have lessened the hoped-for impact of the rule. With data from the preseason and the XFL (where this kickoff was innovated) showing the average drive start a little shy of the 30, it feels like a lot of teams will be happy to concede that and avoid the risk of a big return. My 50 percent estimate might actually be on the optimistic side.