What a week of upsets we just had. While we were all carving turkey and arguing with our extended families, all three Thanksgiving Day games were upsets. That trend continued over the weekend. With Chicago going into Philly and winning and the Rams tripping up in Carolina, we have a new No. 1 seed in the NFC: da Bears. Just like we all predicted. 

Meanwhile, the AFC South might be the most interesting and competitive division race over the next five weeks, with three teams all within a game of each other and all in strong playoff positions. The Cowboys have worked their way back into the mix and the Panthers keep pulling out improbable wins.

There’s a lot left to be decided over the next five weeks and some huge games coming up on the calendar. I’ve done my best to parse where things stand at the moment.

Tier 1: Super Bowl Favorites

This tier is for the one team standing above the rest right now.

1 — Los Angeles Rams (9-3, —)

Last week: L 28-31 vs. Carolina Panthers

I still have the Rams in a tier by themselves. It took three uncharacteristic Matthew Stafford turnovers — including a pick-six — to lose on the road by three. There isn’t a team I trust more in January.

Tier 2: Super Bowl Contenders

This tier belongs to the locked-in Super Bowl contenders.

2 — Seattle Seahawks (9-3, UP 1)

Last week: W 26-0 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Turnovers continue to be a problem that plagues the Seahawks and it could be their undoing in the playoffs, especially if they are forced to play on the road. But they have a complete defense and an offense that makes big plays in big moments.

3 — Green Bay Packers (8-3-1, UP 4)

Last week: W 31-24 vs. Detroit Lions

The Packers have now won three straight and seem to be building some momentum. They’re just a half-game back in the NFC North and still have both games against the Bears upcoming. The return of WR Christian Watson has done wonders for this offense.

Tier 3: Playoff Teams

These teams are surefire playoff teams battling for positioning in a crowded race.

4 — Denver Broncos (10-2, UP 2)

Last week: W 27-26 OT vs. Washington Commanders

The Broncos keep finding ways to win despite lackluster performances week-to-week, something few teams in the AFC can say. Denver has a four-game lead on the Chiefs and a two-game lead on the Chargers in the AFC West, giving the team some breathing room heading down the stretch.

5 — Indianapolis Colts (8-4, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 16-20 vs. Houston Texans

The Colts have now lost three of their last four, and that one win was in overtime in Berlin over the 4-8 Falcons. Still, all those losses have come by one score, and Indy is 3-4 in one-score games this season. I don’t think the Colts are at risk of bottoming out like some are saying, but their margin for error is gone in a tough division and they have a brutal rest-of-season schedule.

6 — Houston Texans (7-5, UP 7)

Last week: W 20-16 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Is this an overreaction? Maybe. But this defense is absolutely elite and the one major flaw this team had is becoming less and less of an issue. After having one of the worst offensive lines in the league to start the season, the Texans are up to 20th in pass blocking grade and 19th in run blocking grade, per PFF. That’s not elite, but it’s not a liability, either.

7 — Kansas City Chiefs (6-6, DOWN 5)

Last week: L 28-31 vs. Dallas Cowboys

The advanced metrics still love this team, but at a certain point, they need to win games. The AFC wildcard picture is a lot stronger than we expected entering the season (as many as three AFC South teams could make the playoffs) and the Chiefs are currently 10th in the conference.

8 — Philadelphia Eagles (8-4, DOWN 3)

Last week: L 15-24 vs. Chicago Bears

Something is clearly broken in this Philadelphia offense. Bears defenders were calling into radio shows to mock their predictability from the locker room after the game, and the dysfunction continues to grow. This is seriously reminiscent of how the 2023 season went, and all of a sudden, they’re looking over their shoulders in the NFC East to see the Cowboys hot on their heels.

9 — New England Patriots (11-2, DOWN 1)

Last week: W 33-15 vs New York Giants

The Patriots keep beating up on their soft schedule, which is all you can ask of them right now. Second-year QB Drake Maye is ahead of schedule and this team is right in the mix for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, which is quite the accomplishment.

10 — Buffalo Bills (8-4, DOWN 1)

Last week: W 26-7 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bills didn’t need to do much to beat the Steelers, so it was a conservative game plan on Sunday. Buffalo’s rushing offense is legit and gives them a higher floor on that side of the ball.

11 — Chicago Bears (9-3, UP 5)

Last week: W 24-15 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

That’s the win I was looking for. I was skeptical of the Bears’ record last week given who they’d beaten, and even though the Eagles are going through it right now, Chicago proved they can hang with the big boys. They ran roughshod in Philly, with two 100-yard rushers for the first time since the ’80s.

Tier 3: Playoff Contenders

Not all of these teams will make it to the playoffs, of course, but they are all teams expected to make playoff pushes. And who knows, once they get there, they could go on a run.

12 — Detroit Lions (7-5, DOWN 2)

Last week: L 24-31 vs. Green Bay Packers

It sounds crazy, given they earned the NFC’s top seed last year, but the Lions are in real danger of missing the playoffs. Losing HC Ben Johnson to the Bears really hurt them, as did their losses on the offensive line. And for all their attempts to fix it in recent years, this is still a bad cornerback room.

13 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5, DOWN 2)

Last week: W 20-17 vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Bucs maintain their half-game lead over the Panthers in the NFC South — for now. Injuries have been a big part of the story this season in Tampa Bay, but as long as they keep winning games and staying afloat, they should get reinforcements down the stretch.

14 — Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4, DOWN 2)

Last week: W 25-3 vs. Tennessee Titans

Somehow, some way, the Jaguars are sitting in first place in the AFC South. Top WR Brian Thomas Jr. made his return in this one, sparking an offense that’s starting to find some answers. It’s a tough division, but Jacksonville has put itself in a great position to make the playoffs, whether they win the division or not.

15 — Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1, UP 3)

Last week: W 31-28 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Here come the Cowboys. Coming off back-to-back big wins against the Chiefs and Eagles, Dallas has launched itself fully back into the playoff mix. Blockbuster trade acquisition DT Quinnen Williams has been a game-changer on this defensive line, giving the Cowboys some juice in both run defense and their pass rush.

16 — Los Angeles Chargers (8-4, DOWN 2)

Last week: W 31-14 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Herbert is the most hit quarterback in the NFL and it cost him in this one, breaking his left hand. He got surgery Monday and it’s unknown if he’ll miss time, but the Chargers can’t afford for him to have a dip in his play as a result.

17 — San Francisco 49ers (9-4, DOWN 2)

Last week: W 26-8 vs. Cleveland Browns

The 49ers have a soft closing schedule, one that should let them coast into a wildcard spot despite all their injuries. How competitive can they be once they get there? That’s unknown, but regardless, it’s a big accomplishment for such a wounded team.

18 — Carolina Panthers (7-6, UP 2)

Last week: W 31-28 vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Panthers are a half-game out of the lead in the NFC South and the NFC’s No. 4 seed despite ranking 23rd in the NFL in point differential at -50. This is a gritty team with a strong run game and a budding star in first-round WR Tetairoa McMillan, and you can’t help but respect their fight.

19 — Baltimore Ravens (6-6, DOWN 2)

Last week: L 14-32 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

I don’t like how the Ravens are playing right now. They went on a win streak against a soft part of their schedule and they’ll probably still win the AFC North (more on that later) but this team is not good. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is having a down year — not entirely his fault — they can’t run the ball, and this defense can’t stop any offense with a pulse.

Tier 5: Feisty Spoilers

They probably (or definitely) won’t make the playoffs, but they could play spoiler and might be better than their record indicates.

20 — Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 7-26 vs. Buffalo Bills

Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers was hurt again in the loss, and yet even an injured Rodgers is still probably their best option. The Steelers have the most expensive defense in the league, yet they can’t stop anybody, and this offense was bad before Rodgers was beat up. Whoever wins the AFC North is getting steamrolled by the top wildcard team (likely one of the Colts, Jaguars or Texans).

21 — Arizona Cardinals (3-9, —)

Last week: L 17-20 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I know they keep losing games, but I like how the Cardinals are playing. This defense has heart despite their injuries, and QB Jacoby Brissett is playing the best ball of his career.

22 — Cincinnati Bengals (4-8, UP 6)

Last week: W 32-14 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Joe Burrow came back from his toe injury and lit up the Ravens even without WR Tee Higgins. It’s too late for the Bengals to be factors in the playoff race, but maybe they can build some momentum for next season.

23 — Miami Dolphins (5-7, —)

Last week: W 21-17 vs. New Orleans Saints

Are the Dolphins a sneaky playoff contender? They’re still a long shot to actually qualify, and another loss would end their hopes. But they play the Jets, Steelers and Bengals over the next three weeks, giving them a path to a winning record, and they could be a fun team to keep an eye on in the final weeks of the regular season.

24 — Washington Commanders (3-9, —)

Last week: L 26-27 OT vs. Denver Broncos

Backup QB Marcus Mariota is playing his heart out for this team. There isn’t a clear path for them to return to contention quickly, but with QB Jayden Daniels, they at least have their long-term starter at quarterback in-house.

25 — Minnesota Vikings (4-8, DOWN 3)

Last week: L 0-26 vs. Seattle Seahawks

It would be unfair to blame this performance on undrafted rookie QB Max Brosmer in his first start. The Vikings did not adequately address the quarterback position this offseason and it’s resulted in a wasted season despite all their talent.

Tier 6: Better Luck Next Year

The season ended for fans of these teams quite some time ago. But hey, tune in for our early draft coverage which will be heating up over the next few weeks.

26 — New York Giants (2-11, —)

Last week: L 15-33 vs. New England Patriots

This season is all about the development of first-round QB Jaxson Dart. Can he stay healthy and work on his dropback passing game? With WR Malik Nabers injured, there isn’t much for him to work with, but maybe he can build some confidence for next season.

27 — Cleveland Browns (3-8, —)

Last week: L 8-26 vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Browns appear set to get an extended look at fifth-round QB Shedeur Sanders over the rest of the season. He’s been fine, but it remains to be seen if he’ll do enough to make Cleveland reconsider taking a quarterback with one of their two first-round picks in this upcoming draft.

28 — Atlanta Falcons (4-8, DOWN 4)

Last week: L 24-27 vs. New York Jets

This Falcons team is inexcusably bad. A loss to the Jets? Really? Atlanta fans will not be happy if HC Raheem Morris is retained for next season, and major questions need to be raised about this iteration of the roster.

29 — New York Jets (3-9, UP 2)

Last week: W 27-24 vs. Atlanta Falcons

Veteran QB Tyrod Taylor had a vintage performance to lead a gutsy win. He obviously isn’t the long-term answer in New York, but it’s nice to see the Jets’ pair of young receivers acquired at the trade deadline making an impact. Adonai Mitchell had a monster game and John Metchie III turned in a good day. Those two becoming real pieces for the future would be transformative for the Jets offense.

30 — Las Vegas Raiders (2-10, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 14-31 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Things keep going from bad to worse for this Raiders team. They provided little resistance to a Chargers team with the worst offensive line in the league and a quarterback with a broken hand. Major changes are coming down the pipeline in Las Vegas for the third consecutive offseason.

31 — New Orleans Saints (2-10, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 17-21 vs. Miami Dolphins

Second-round QB Tyler Shough had some really nice throws against Miami, but he’s going to have to show more to convince the Saints to forgo drafting a quarterback with their likely top-three pick. Of all the teams in this range, New Orleans might be best equipped to make a quick turnaround given the pieces they have in place on both sides of the ball.

32 — Tennessee Titans (1-10, —)

Last week: L 3-25 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Each week that goes by, it becomes clearer and clearer that the Titans are the worst team in the league. This will be a tough job for any incoming head coach, which could limit their options if better jobs are available this cycle.