Prospective 2025 Coaching Candidate Big Board

The next big event on the NFL calendar is Black Monday — the Monday after the last Sunday of the regular season and the start of the NFL coaching cycle. Two head coaches have already been fired and the number could even reach double digits according to the people who pay attention to these kinds of things. There have been 23 different coaching hires in the past three years, so if the top of that range hits, we’re looking at the equivalent of the entire league turning over. 

As you might surmise from that kind of volatility, the NFL is not that good at picking coaches. Anyone who says they’ve cracked the code is lying or trying to pull off a scam (like the consulting firms that sometimes get paid big bucks to help teams make these decisions). There’s no formula. Some types of hires are extra bad ideas — dipping into the college ranks is unwise — but the majority of all hires fail. 

Excluding most of the hires from the past two years, as it’s not fair to judge those yet, there have been 72 head coaching hires from 2013 to 2022, plus Frank Reich who was hired and fired in 2023. Only 18 of those have been clear and obvious successes. If you loosen the criteria, for instance including coaches made the playoffs but failed to earn an extension, the overall hit rate improves to 27. That’s still not much to write home about. 

There isn’t a subgroup out of that group that’s markedly better than those success rates, either: 

• The majority of hires have a background on offense, 43 in the time span noted above. Of those 43, 14 were clear successes, 21 partial. 
• 24 coaches had a background on defense, just four were successful and seven were partial successes. 
• There were 22 times where teams hired coaches with previous NFL head coaching experience. Just five were successes, eight partial. 

There are probably several reasons for this. The league is intensely competitive and designed to push everyone to the middle in the name of parity. Holding a building and a locker room together when adversity hits is hard. Coaches have to navigate scarcities at key positions like offensive line, cornerback and most of all quarterback. Owners are impatient and trigger-happy, susceptible to being influenced by the media, fans or the last person to have their ear. 

But for a league that says it values culture and leadership, few teams actually know how to find it. Being a great coordinator is not the same thing as being a great head coach, even if some of the best head coaches are also among the best at the X’s and O’s, yet the league continues to cycle through coordinators who know how to play the game with agents and the media to build their buzz. 

This is a roundabout way to get into a ranking of coaching candidates, but it’s important context. If seven or eight new head coaches are hired after this season, history says most will be failures and gone in three years or less — and there’s not much of a correlation between the “top” hires and the not top hires. Coaches are also tougher to rank because team fit is so important, in some ways more than it is for players. 

However, there’s still some value in trying to rank the top candidates as we look ahead to putting together the puzzle between coaches and teams in the next several weeks. 

Tier 1: Consensus Top Candidates

1 – Former Patriots HC Bill Belichick

On the one hand, this is the chalk pick for the top coaching candidate of the cycle. Belichick’s record speaks for itself with all the wins and Lombardi trophies. Even in the twilight of his time in New England, he was a force multiplier on defense and special teams. As a teacher and a game plan architect, Belichick can still help an NFL team. 

But Belichick was shut out of a job this past cycle and there’s a real chance it happens again. Belichick was also the lead front office executive with the Patriots. Ultimately Belichick the general manager got Belichick the head coach fired with a pile of failed evaluations that wore down the roster and became too much to overcome in the end. The topic of control was a thorny one that teams couldn’t get past. 

This year, there’s a needle that will have to be threaded to get Belichick back on the sidelines with a headset. Teams will be reluctant to give Belichick full control like he had in New England, but will also have to offer a front office setup he’s willing to work with and that can do a better job of building the roster than Belichick did over his final few years. 

2 – Former Titans HC Mike Vrabel

It was a shock when the Titans fired Vrabel last year and a major surprise when he was also shut out of another job. Though Vrabel played for Belichick and has similarities to the legendary coach, he is not a part of Belichick coaching tree that has so many failed branches. Still, it felt like he got lumped in and was the victim of a larger leaguewide coaching shift.

Entering the 2023 season, Vrabel had a 48-34 regular season record with three playoff appearances. His teams were always physical and tough on both sides of the ball, winning with a strong defense and running game. The Titans under Vrabel had success despite a relative lack of firepower at quarterback, too, although veteran QB Ryan Tannehill was outstanding at what the team asked him to do. 

Ultimately a 6-11 record in 2023, Vrabel’s second straight losing campaign, and concerns from owner Amy Adams Strunk about how well Vrabel was working with GM Ran Carthon led to his firing. The team that hires Vrabel will have to be comfortable with how he works with the front office but Vrabel’s established track record of building tough, physical football teams will be back in vogue this hiring cycle. 

3 – Lions OC Ben Johnson

One of the top coaching candidates for two straight cycles, Johnson’s handling of things has been unconventional. He’s withdrawn from consideration for two straight years, electing to remain in Detroit as the play-caller while citing “unfinished business” on the field with the Lions. The more cynical perspective might be that Johnson didn’t like the options available and believed his stock would remain high if he waited. 

Either way, Johnson has bet on himself and won. The Lions’ offense has been one of the best in the league with him at the helm and he’s one of the league’s top play-callers. A head coach who is an elite play-caller can be a huge edge in the NFL since he can’t be poached by other teams, assuming the candidate is also a good head coach. Johnson’s ability to lead the whole team remains an unknown but he’s one of the highest-upside candidates of this whole cycle and should be in demand yet again. The biggest question might be if he’s ready to leave. 

Tier 2: Bounceback Former HCs Turned Coordinators

4 – Vikings DC Brian Flores

There’s probably a clear tier break after the top three to the next three candidates, all of whom have previous head coaching experience. Flores was fired after three seasons in Miami despite going 10-6 and 9-8 in his final two years, as owner Stephen Ross was not happy with the way various relationships were deteriorating around the building, including with QB Tua Tagovailoa. That’s continued to draw headlines as Tagovailoa has thrived under new HC Mike McDaniel and taken pointed shots at Flores. 

Flores will have to outline a blueprint of how he’s improved his people skills to earn another coaching job. The other factor working against him is his ongoing lawsuit against the NFL for racial discrimination. But it speaks to how good of a job Flores is doing with the Vikings’ defense this year that he’s viewed as a strong candidate despite all of that. His scheme is pushing boundaries on defense and is truly something unique that gives opposing offenses headaches. If Flores can take the good from his time in Miami and leave the bad, he should be in great position to land a second chance at a head coaching job. 

5 – Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury

Kingsbury is getting a lot of credit for the scintillating start by No. 2 overall QB Jayden Daniels, who has helped spark a major turnaround in Washington. Kingsbury has done a good job of putting Daniels in the best possible position to succeed and scheming around what a lot of people expected to be personnel deficiencies on offense. There are some similarities to his offense from his first head coaching stint in Arizona, but Kingsbury deserves props for reinventing himself with his second chance as an NFL play-caller. 

It will be interesting to see if the Commanders can sustain their momentum over the second half of the season, as Kingsbury has a long history of starting out strong before fading down the stretch as both an NFL and college head coach. Right now, though, Kingsbury is absolutely putting himself in the conversation for another top gig. 

6 – Broncos DC Vance Joseph 

Joseph currently presides over a Broncos defense that is top five in both scoring and yards. With Broncos HC Sean Payton putting a lot of time and energy into the offense, including calling plays, Joseph is like the head coach of the defense in a lot of ways — and actually has previous head coaching experience with the Broncos funny enough. He was 11-21 over two seasons but quarterback was a major roster hole. 

It remains to be seen if Joseph gets a second chance but he’s at least put himself in position to get some serious interview interest. 

Tier 3: Promising OCs

7 – Cardinals OC Drew Petzing

Another tier drop. Petzing is starting to get some buzz as a rising star coordinator. The 37-year-old has Arizona as a borderline top 10 offense right now and is helping QB Kyler Murray play some of the better ball of his career. He has a background under Browns HC Kevin Stefanski and a similar offensive philosophy predicated on multi-tight end formations to create mismatches in both the run and passing game. If he interviews well, he could land a job. 

8 – Ravens OC Todd Monken

Monken is much older than the first-time head coaching candidate, though he did have a stint at Southern Miss in the lead chair a decade ago. The 58-year-old might not fit the boy genius mold that’s been in vogue but the results with the Ravens over the past two years have been compelling. Baltimore has the No. 1 offense in football this year and was a top-five unit last year. Monken has tailored a system that fits QB Lamar Jackson perfectly, unlocking the passing ability that former Ravens OC Greg Roman failed to tap into. He should draw extra interest from teams interested in getting more out of their current starting quarterback. 

9 – Buccaneers OC Liam Coen

Coen checks a lot of boxes as a prospective candidate. First, he’s a successful offensive play-caller. Tampa Bay is eighth in the NFL in yards and fifth in points, and after notching a career season last year, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield is on the verge of blowing past all those previous marks. He was tied for the league lead in touchdown passes entering this past week. 

Secondly, Coen has a background under Rams HC Sean McVay and runs a similar system. He was an assistant for McVay before leaving for Kentucky, coming back as offensive coordinator, leaving for Kentucky again to call plays and then landing in Tampa. His whirlwind journey might have another stop soon with a different team as the head coach. 

10 – Bills OC Joe Brady

A former wunderkind who was a rising coaching star until an encounter with the Carolina Panthers, Brady got the nod as the play-caller during the season last year and has helped stabilize Buffalo’s offense. Even his stint in Carolina wasn’t that bad in reflection, though Brady clearly needed to gain some experience. At 35, he’s rebounded from adversity and should be in the mix to resume his climb up the ladder. 

Tier 4: Promising DCs

11 – Chargers DC Jesse Minter

The Bengals got their points eventually to cool off what had been a historic start to the season for the Chargers’ defense, but Minter’s impact was still evident throughout the game as Los Angeles flummoxed QB Joe Burrow enough to get the win. Minter has been a quick rising star, going from assistant in Baltimore to defensive coordinator for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan and with the Chargers. That Ravens-style defense is currently the favorite flavor in the league and Minter’s proficiency could draw significant interest this hiring cycle just like it did for another coach in the Baltimore/Michigan pipeline — Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald. 

12 – Dolphins DC Anthony Weaver

Weaver played in the NFL for seven years as a defensive end, then transitioned into coaching. He’s drawn buzz for quite a while for his work as a defensive line coach and his leadership qualities, but his one year as a defensive coordinator before this season was a disappointment. He oversaw a Texans defense in 2020 that was one of the worst in the league. 

After being fired by the Texans, Weaver joined the Ravens’ coaching staff and got a residency in what has become the current cutting edge defensive scheme in the league. It got him a second chance as a DC with Miami and Weaver is doing a much better job so far. Miami is 10th in total defense despite some serious injury issues. I would classify Weaver as more of a dark horse candidate at the moment but he should draw interviews. 

13 – Lions DC Aaron Glenn

Glenn has drawn some interest over the past couple years and has been pushed as a rising candidate in various media lists, moreso for his chops as a former player and leader than the tangible results on the field for the first few years in Detroit. But the Lions finally have improved the roster on defense to a much better spot than when HC Dan Campbell first took over and hired Glenn, and the results are starting to show. The second straight year of success in Detroit should draw more interest from other teams in grabbing a piece of that culture, and Glenn has been a significant part of building it. 

Tier 5: Intriguing Candidates But Might Be At Least A Year Away

14 – Titans DC Dennard Wilson

Wilson has regularly been referred to as a bright and promising coach by various beat reporters from the different teams he’s worked with in the past few years. He spent time with the Jets, Eagles and Ravens as a secondary coach and was passed up for a promotion to defensive coordinator a couple times before landing with the Titans in that role. Tennessee is struggling but the defense looks like a bright spot, ranking No. 2 in the NFL in yards allowed. On a more anecdotal note, they just look well-coached, and that should make Wilson a dark-horse candidate to watch. 

15 – Falcons OC Zac Robinson

Robinson was one of the top offensive coordinator candidates this past offseason as the latest sharp mind off the Rams’ coaching staff, and Falcons HC Raheem Morris had the inside track in bringing him to Atlanta. The results have been a little mixed so far. The Falcons’ offense has looked great in spurts, particularly with its use of tempo. But consistency has been lacking due to a variety of factors, including veteran QB Kirk Cousins settling in coming off last year’s torn Achilles and Robinson having some growing pains as an offensive architect and play-caller. If the Falcons close out the NFC South, Robinson will draw interest, but I don’t think he’ll be as coveted as other candidates. 

16 – Texans OC Bobby Slowik

Slowik was a breakout star last year and had several interviews following his work with Texans QB C.J. Stroud, the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year. This year the results have been much more spotty for Stroud and Houston, and some of the blame can be traced back to Slowik. Barring a turnaround, it would be surprising to see him be in as high demand as he was last year. 

17 – Dolphins OC Frank Smith

Smith is beloved by his players, ranking as one of the highest-graded offensive coaches in last year’s annual NFLPA survey. He’s not the play-caller in Miami but he has a big hand in McDaniel’s offense, especially the run game which is among the most creative and explosive in the league. The Dolphins have not quite had the success this year that would put Smith’s name high on prospective candidate lists, however. 

18 – Saints OC Klint Kubiak

Kubiak looked like he might be one of the top candidates after the Saints dropped over 80 points in their first two weeks. Things have since come off the rails and injuries have sabotaged the unit. Overall though, it seems like Kubiak has worked well to maximize what he was given, particularly when it comes to the offensive line. With roots in the Shanahan tree, he’s a name to watch in the future. 

Tier 6: Retreads

19 – Chiefs OC Matt Nagy

There’s a playbook failed former head coaches usually follow to try and rehabilitate their image to earn a second shot at a head coaching gig — find a good team in a good spot with a need at coordinator and go try and kick butt. Nagy got his first head coaching job with the Bears thanks to his success with the Chiefs, so naturally it made a lot of sense to return to Kansas City. He’s starting to get some buzz as a potential candidate, so the plan seems to be working. 

Chiefs HC Andy Reid is still the primary architect and play-caller of the offense but Nagy has actually been mentioned as a potential in-house heir to the 66-year-old Reid. Reid is the oldest active coach but has shown no signs of slowing down, so Nagy could be waiting a while. It might be more tempting to jump ship if another opportunity comes before then. 

20 – Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy

Not many coaches have had three straight 12-win seasons like McCarthy notched in Dallas. For many other teams, that would have been enough for an extension. But the lack of playoff success and what looks like a step back this year have McCarthy looking like a dead man walking in Dallas. Not many coaches get third chances, but McCarthy is at least worth mentioning. 

21 – Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo

Spagnuolo is one of the top defensive coordinators in NFL history when you factor in the totality of his work, including the Super Bowl victory over the unbeaten Patriots with the Giants in 2007, plus three championships in Kansas City. His lone stint as a head coach with the Rams over a decade ago was pretty bad, however, and for as good as Spagnuolo has been, at 64 years old the coaching carousel may have spun past him. 

Tier 7: Post-Hype Candidates

22 – Panthers DC Ejiro Evero

Evero has been in-demand on the interview circuit the past two seasons for his work on top-ten defenses in Denver and Carolina that excelled despite overall poor team results. This year, things have bottomed out with a talent disadvantage that has been too much for Evero to coach around. It’s always possible he’s let go after the season but he’s well-thought of in league circles and would be snapped up quickly. He needs to rebuild the juice in his potential candidacy again. 

23 – Eagles OC Kellen Moore

This is Moore’s sixth year as an offensive coordinator and the results across all six years have been pretty strong. Including this year so far, Moore has called top-ten scoring offenses four times and twice coordinated units that were No. 1 in total yards. He’s had plenty of coaching interviews, but has yet to land a top job. That sort of speaks for itself right now. 

Tier 8: Prime

24 – Colorado HC Deion Sanders

There’s obviously a whole lot you could say about Sanders as a head coaching candidate, and he will probably be a popular name in the rumor mill in the next several weeks. I will keep it to this, though. History says college coaches are an awful bet to succeed as NFL head coaches unless they have previous NFL coaching experience. Think Harbaugh or Pete Carroll. Sanders played for a long time but his only coaching experience is in college, and we’ve seen time and time again that that kind of experience coaching young adults doesn’t carry over to coaching grown men.