It’s been a brutal week for Penn State football. Once considered to be on the short list of national championship contenders and the preseason No. 2 team, the Nittany Lions have now lost three straight Big Ten games, dropping them to 3-3 on the year. This last loss was the toughest, falling to Northwestern by a point in a game that cost HC James Franklin his job. It also cost them QB Drew Allar, lost for the rest of the year to a broken ankle late in the fourth quarter.

Allar’s injury is particularly devastating given it’s too late to take a medical redshirt. This was his fourth season playing for Penn State and he is now out of eligibility — barring any NCAA weirdness. Allar will have to enter the NFL draft after the season as planned, but will be doing so off an ankle injury and without a full season of senior year tape for scouts to watch. It’s not ideal, and it’s a disappointing ending to an otherwise strong Penn State career.

To be clear, this is not a full scouting report or final evaluation of Allar as a prospect. You can read my full summer scouting report on Allar here. But since his college career has now wrapped up, I thought I would take some time to contextualize his senior year relative to the rest of his tape, discuss what went wrong this season, and break down how he compares to the rest of the 2026 quarterback class as it continues to shape up.

Was Allar Actually Playing Poorly This Season?

This is a deceptively difficult question to answer, depending on who you ask. Allar was one of the most scrutinized players in the country over the last season and a half, and he bore a lot of blame for Penn State’s mixed early-season results even if he didn’t entirely deserve it.

But in short, yes. Let’s start with the basic box score stats: Allar threw for 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns to three interceptions in six games with a 64.8 percent completion rate. As a rusher, he added 172 yards and a touchdown. He took six sacks on the year and only averaged 6.9 yards per attempt through the air.

The advanced stats make Allar look even worse. On the season, he had a PFF passing grade of 67.6, which is a bit above average. He had a higher turnover-worthy play rate than a big-time throw rate, and only had four big-time throws on the season. From clean pockets and on standard dropbacks, two of the best metrics for predicting future performance, Allar graded out below the 20th percentile.

Setting aside the numbers for a moment and just looking at the tape, Allar doesn’t look like the same passer he was a year ago, let alone having taken the steps forward we wanted to see. The arm talent and pocket awareness are still there, but inaccuracy was a major issue for Allar as a senior. He missed easy throws far too often, either firing wildly inaccurate, uncatchable balls or being just off enough on his throws to the flats and on slants that it put receivers in disadvantageous positions to create after the catch.

Downfield, Allar continued to struggle to hit big plays on the outside. His ability to make tough throws over the middle was still there, but outside the numbers and deep down the field he was more inconsistent. Penn State’s offense simply wasn’t efficient, and Allar was a big part of the why.

Even with all these negatives, Allar was still a decent college quarterback this year. But that’s not the rubric we’re grading him by. Not only was Allar supposed to be one of the best quarterbacks in college football this season, he was a top NFL prospect. I had him rated as my No. 6 overall prospect coming into the season. So what went wrong?

How Did Allar Regress From Last Season To This Season?

I won’t be going over my full summer scouting report here, but I’ll hit the highlights. In essence, Allar had the highest number of NFL throws on his tape coming into the year. His ability to drive the ball up the seam and into tight windows was the best in the class, and he had enough mobility to make plays on the move and keep defenses honest when scrambling. I loved his frame and his arm, and I just wanted to see him take a natural step forward in his development.

As discussed, that hasn’t happened. Specifically, Allar wasn’t playing with the same level of confidence as before, and his mechanics have faltered. He’s got happy feet in the pocket now, failing to reset his base when he’s moved off his spot. As a result, his accuracy suffers, especially under pressure. It’s the combination of poor footwork and a rushed throwing motion that gets him into trouble.

Like I said, I’ll do a full final tape watch and evaluation of Allar after the season, just like I will for everyone else. But Allar will be viewed as a toolsy prospect with upside, not a finished product. Quarterbacks with his combination of size, experience, and arm talent don’t fall far in the draft. Even the 2024 version of Allar would stick around in the league for a long time as a backup.

How Does Allar Stack Up In This Quarterback Class?

Halfway through the college football season, I view this quarterback class similarly to how I did coming in, just with different names at the top. There are a lot of intriguing prospects that bring different strengths to the table, but no one has separated themselves as a bona fide No. 1 pick. There are several candidates — this isn’t the type of class where we won’t see a quarterback come off the board in the top five — but how exactly it shakes out is still very much up in the air.

Right now, consensus has Oregon’s Dante Moore and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza as the top two passers in the class. Both are big-bodied pocket passers with strong arms and some ability to create out of structure. Alabama’s Ty Simpson is quickly rising up the boards as well, and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier is still a factor. Oklahoma’s John Mateer has impressed this year, though a hand injury complicates things. South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers hasn’t had a great year, but he has tremendous upside and a high draft floor as a result.

Personally, I’m very high on Duke’s Darian Mensah and USC’s Jayden Maiava. Both are flying a bit under the radar in draft circles right now, but Maiava is starting to pick up some steam, and I expect both to garner more serious consideration as the year goes on. I’d argue both are top 10 prospects, taking positional value into consideration.

The fact that there are so many differing opinions on this quarterback class in the draft community just goes to show how much it’s still in flux. Guys like Miami’s Carson Beck and Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt are quality Day 2 prospects, and if you asked five draft evaluators for their top three quarterbacks, you’d get five different answers.

All these players are going to continue putting out tape this year and will rise or fall as a result. Allar’s college career is over, but he underwent successful ankle surgery and is expected to resume working out in about three months. That puts him on pace to be cleared by the Senior Bowl, and he could participate at the Combine and have a Pro Day ahead of the draft. That’s great news for Allar.

I expect, at worst, Allar will still be a third-round pick based on his tools alone. Almost everyone I mentioned above aside from Nussmeier and Beck are underclassmen, meaning they could return to school. Many will declare, but inevitably some will elect to continue their college careers, and that will thin out the class a bit.

Had Allar declared a year ago, he would’ve been viewed similarly to Jaxson Dart, who went late in the first round to the Giants. Had Allar been in last year’s class, the Giants may have had a choice to make, or another team would’ve taken Allar in a similar range. Allar chose to return to Penn State to earn his way to a top 10 pick. Clearly, that decision backfired — this really was a worst-case scenario senior season for Allar — but I doubt the NFL has soured on him too much. As long as he’s able to return for the pre-draft circuit and doesn’t completely bomb, he’s still tracking to be a Day 2 selection.