Five Takeaways From The NFL Schedule Release

The 2024 NFL schedule has been trickling out over the past few days before being released in full on Wednesday night. The headliners are the opening slate of games in Week 1, primetime matchups, international games and the highly anticipated “revenge games” for star players on new teams.

We’ve known which teams will play for months. But the actual order is relevant given the ups and downs of an NFL season. Particularly difficult or easy stretches can often define the whole year.

Here are five thoughts on the full 2024 schedule release:

Kansas City’s quest for a three-peat has a tough start

Fresh off winning back-to-back Super Bowls for the first time since the Patriots in the early 2000s, the Chiefs are set to embark on their quest for a historic three-peat. They won’t have an easy time of it, however. They open the season at home against the Ravens and Bengals in the first two weeks, two teams expected to compete for a Super Bowl of their own and follow that up with road games against the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons and Jim Harbaugh’s new-look Chargers.

While the Chiefs will be favored in both games, the Ravens and Bengals are quality opponents who have gone toe-to-toe with Kansas City over the past few years. An 0-2 start is absolutely within the realm of possibility. The Chiefs haven’t been known for fast starts in this modern dynasty of theirs, and they have new personnel across the roster to integrate.

With veterans in new roles and rookies expected to make an impact, the success of these players might be the difference between a fast start in Kansas City and playing the rest of the season from behind. Going 0-2 has proven to be a difficult hole for teams to crawl out of and earn a playoff berth. We’ve learned not to put anything past the Chiefs but it would be a foreboding start. 

Miami needs to learn to finish strong

The first two seasons of the Mike McDaniel era in Miami have followed a similar script. The Dolphins come roaring out of the gate, shocking the league with their innovative, high-flying offense and climbing to the top of the standings in the AFC. This hasn’t lasted, however, as in each of the last two years, the Dolphins have limped down the stretch, slipped to a wild card berth and lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Public criticism of the Dolphins has placed the blame upon many people, including McDaniel, but most of it has fallen at the feet of QB Tua Tagovailoa. Whatever the issue is, Miami better figure it out this offseason. Their 2024 schedule looks to be setting up for a very similar ending.

Miami is scheduled to travel to Green Bay on Thanksgiving. The Dolphins follow that up with games at home against the New York Jets, at the Texans, home against the 49ers, at Cleveland and then close the season with a trip to New York to face the Jets again. The Dolphins have wilted in the past in cold weather games on the road, so games against the Packers, Browns and Jets give them a chance to either buck or reinforce the narrative. There’s little room for error either with expected contending teams like Houston and San Francisco on the schedule in the stretch run. 

Colts QB Anthony Richardson won’t have time to ease back in

Richardson, the fourth overall pick in 2023, wildly exceeded most expectations to start his rookie season — when he was healthy. His health ended up being the main story of the Colts’ 2023 season, as he missed parts of multiple games before a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5.

Ultimately, Richardson earned an incomplete grade in his rookie year, and despite looking promising in the few games he played he has a lot more to prove this year. Indianapolis’ schedule will throw him right back into the fire. The Colts open the season with a rematch against C.J. Stroud and the Texans before traveling to Green Bay and hosting the Caleb Williams-era Bears. The following nine weeks include a stretch of four road games in five weeks, three against divisional opponents, plus matchups with the Dolphins, Vikings, Bills, Jets and Lions.

That’s a gauntlet to open the season, with little reprieve until December. Indianapolis has one of the easiest final five weeks of the season, something that could be very beneficial in a tight playoff race down the stretch. But to take advantage of that, Richardson will need to grow on the fly. Another losing season could be a tough pill to swallow for a franchise with playoff aspirations.

In a critical season, Philadelphia was gifted an easy schedule

It’s hard to view last season as anything but an abject disaster for the Eagles. A year after falling just short in the Super Bowl and after opening the season 10-1, they limped down the stretch, with the roster and coaching staff seemingly falling apart at the same time. The Eagles replaced both coordinators for the second offseason in a row, except this time they fired both instead of losing them to head coaching opportunities.

Eagles HC Nick Sirianni enters an important year for him in 2024. Another bad season in Philadelphia could have his superiors looking at the coordinators he lost after the 2022 season as the true reason for his success. The roster feels fragile, as an aging core is starting to retire and younger playmakers haven’t fully stepped up when called upon.

Luckily, the Eagles have one of the easiest schedules among the major contenders in 2024 due in large part to drawing the NFC South. Philadelphia has only a handful of truly tough games scattered throughout their schedule. They open the season against the Packers but don’t play another surefire playoff team until they travel to Cincinnati at the end of October. They also close the season with three straight NFC East games, giving them an opportunity even until the end. 

The team will probably remain the preseason favorites in the NFC East, with the other teams in the division either taking a step back or not closing the gap enough. If Sirianni can’t win with this roster against this schedule, he will be running thin on excuses.

Many contenders face tough opening stretches

Historically speaking, starting a season 0-2 is incredibly difficult to overcome. According to CBS Sports, only 11% of the teams that started 0-2 over the past 30 years have gone on to secure a playoff berth. Putting yourself in a hole right away simply isn’t a sustainable model for success.

Some of the expected top contenders this season face tough matchups in the opening weeks that could lead to an 0-2. We’ve already discussed Kansas City’s and Indianapolis’s difficult opening slates, but Buffalo, Cleveland, Green Bay, Jacksonville and Miami are all in similar positions.

The Bills know all too well what Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is capable of at his best, and then they turn right around and get the Dolphins on the road on a short week (though thankfully the night game neuters one of Miami’s major early-season advantages with no Florida sun to deal with). 

The Dolphins meanwhile could be on the ropes just as quickly with the schedule diminishing their early-season advantage. The Jaguars won’t be as caught off guard by the heat as a team like the Packers might. However, Miami should still be favored in that game, which sets up a big must-win in Week 2 between potentially 0-1 Jacksonville and Cleveland squads. Green Bay is capable of starting 2-0 but the draw of the Eagles and Colts back-to-back is among the tougher in the league. 

Things could quickly become dire for one or more of these franchises if they get off to a rocky start. For these teams, it is imperative to win at least one of their openers to avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole.