NFL Playoff Predictions Ahead of Week 14

Week 14 got off to a great start with that exciting, back-and-forth Lions/Packers game last night. If that’s what we’re in store for on Sunday, we’ll have an excellent day of football ahead of us.

With only five weeks left to play, playoff races are scorching hot as teams face do-or-die moments in their seasons. Fights for divisions, No. 1 seeds, and final wildcard berths are all hotly contested as we reach the end. Before we do, however, I thought I’d break down what’s at stake over the next five weeks and make some predictions. Who will be left standing when it’s all said and done? Plus, stick around to the end for a fun college football playoff bracket prediction.

AFC Playoff Picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (10-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
4. Houston Texans (8-5)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
6. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
7. Denver Broncos (8-5)

In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (6-7), Miami Dolphins (5-7), Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)

The AFC playoff picture is remarkably clear entering Week 14. The Bills have already clinched the AFC East for a fifth straight year, and only two teams currently outside the playoffs have a realistic shot of breaking their way into the dance.

Let’s start in the AFC East, as the Bills have not only locked up their division but hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Chiefs. That win looms large in the race for the No. 1 seed, with it looking like a two-team race (though the Steelers might have something to say about that). The Bills still have to play the Rams and the Lions but close the season with a run of the Patriots-Jets-Patriots. If Buffalo can go 1-1 these next two weeks, the schedule sets up favorably for them.

The Dolphins are still in contention for the No. 7 seed, but a head-to-head loss to the Colts hurts them. The last wildcard team in the AFC is likely to have seven or fewer losses, leaving Miami no more margin for error. It’s not an overly difficult schedule, but with games against the Texans, 49ers, and Browns left, it’s not as easy as some of their competition, either.

In the AFC North, the Ravens and Steelers are still battling for the division. Pittsburgh got the home win in that series a few weeks ago, with a rematch still a few weeks out. The Steelers are in the middle of a brutal second half stretch to their season, but they’re already 3-1 to start out. On the other side, the Ravens have a much easier closing schedule but are also a game-and-a-half behind the Steelers with a head-to-head loss.

Who would have guessed the AFC West could get three teams in the playoffs? The Chiefs are on their way to yet another division title, but the Chargers and Broncos are both in comfortable playoff position. Los Angeles is a bit safer and already has a win over Denver. The AFC’s No. 7 seed will likely come down to one game, however, and that’s…

…a Week 15 matchup between the Colts and Broncos. Denver hosts one of the most pivotal games of the season in the playoff race. The Colts’ final three games are against the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars, and they will be heavily favored in all three. Meanwhile, the Broncos face the Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs. The Broncos have a two-game cushion now, but should they lose that matchup, it would evaporate quickly.

Lastly, even though the Texans have been struggling lately, it will be tough for the Colts to overtake them in the division. Houston won both games against Indianapolis earlier this season, so they effectively have a three-game lead. Still, should they suffer a 2023 Jacksonville-esque collapse down the stretch, Indy would be waiting.

Predictions:

1. Buffalo Bills (14-3)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6)
4. Houston Texans (10-7)
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
7. Denver Broncos (10-7)

NFC Playoff Picture

1. Detroit Lions (12-1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
3. Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
4. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
5. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
7. Washington Commanders (8-5)

In the hunt: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6), Arizona Cardinals (6-6), Los Angeles Rams (6-6), San Francisco 49ers (5-7), Dallas Cowboys (5-7)

On the NFC side, things are much less settled. It’s a three-way battle between the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings for the No. 1 seed, and only one division has a comfortable leader currently. While the division races are coming down-to-the wire, the wildcard battle might already be over.

In the NFC East, the Eagles have a two-and-a-half game lead on the Commanders and already beat them once in Philadelphia. Washington would need to win out — winning the home rematch with the Eagles in the process — and have Philadelphia drop two other games as well to have a shot at the division. Not impossible, but highly unlikely. Both teams have fairly easy remaining schedules, and with the Commanders already a game-and-a-half up in the wildcard standings, both have favorable paths to playoff berths.

After that, it gets messy. The NFC North is the best division in football, and it’s not close. However, all three playoff teams from the North have tough remaining slates. The Packers play the Seahawks, Saints, Vikings, and Bears; the Vikings play the Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, Packers, and Lions; and the Lions close with the Bills, Bears, 49ers, and Vikings.

With the Lions beating the Packers last night, Green Bay is essentially eliminated from the division race. Still, they have to feel good about their playoff chances, as they even have some leeway to drop a game or two and still be the NFC’s No. 7 seed.

For the Vikings and Lions, everything is still in front of them, including the top overall seed in the NFC playoffs. The Week 18 rematch between these two teams, this time in Detroit, could hold a lot of weight if both squads keep winning. They’re both competing with the Eagles for the No. 1 seed, but whoever fails to win the division would drop all the way to the No. 5 seed, since they’d be a wildcard team.

In the South and West divisions, all our contenders have an uphill battle to make a wildcard berth. Instead, they’re fighting for the automatic playoff berth you get for winning your division. The Falcons and Buccaneers have identical 6-6 records, with Atlanta sweeping the season series to hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. With five games to go, both teams have fairly easy schedules, but Atlanta holds a significant advantage with that tiebreaker.

Out West, it gets even more complicated. All four teams are within two games of the division lead, and there are still a slew of division games yet to play. The 49ers seem like the longest shot — they have but one division win under their belts thus far, and still have to play the Lions and Dolphins out of division. The Seahawks still have to play the Packers and Vikings, though they have a small lead over the Cardinals and Rams.

Prediction:

1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
6. Green Bay Packers (13-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-7)

Bonus: College Football Playoff Predictions

How about some fun here at the end? Conference championship weekend kicks off tonight with Boise State taking on UNLV, so we’re on the eve of our first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff. I only have one message: put South Carolina in!

Prediction:

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Penn State
6. Notre Dame
7. Georgia
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Iowa State