NFLTR Review: 32 Questions For 32 Teams; Part II

By
Logan Ulrich
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Here’s the second part of our offseason preview setting the table for each team in 2023: 

  • 49ers in a pickle at QB โ€” again
  • Herbert to the moon?
  • How will the Eagles build their next super team?

32 Questions For 32 Teams: Part II

Last week we tackled the big, pressing question the bottom 16 teams in the NFL are facing as they go into the 2023 offseason. Hereโ€™s the second half of the series, taking on the top 16. 

Steelers: Can Kenny Pickett take a step forward?

The final stats for Pickettโ€™s rookie year were kind of ugly. In 13 games, he finished with just seven touchdowns despite attempting 389 passes. That was a worse touchdown percentage than Zach Wilson and Baker Mayfield. Out of 124 rookie quarterbacks who started at least eight games, Pickettโ€™s 1.8 touchdown percentage was sixth-worst, ahead of guys like Ryan Leaf and Jimmy Clausen โ€” though only two spots worse than Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. 

Other aspects of Pickettโ€™s rookie year werenโ€™t as bad but they also werenโ€™t anything special either. He finished with nine interceptions, shaking off a rough start to improve his ball security down the stretch, and added 237 yards and three scores on the ground. His adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) of 4.7, which takes into account turnovers, touchdowns and sacks, was 31st out of 33 qualifying passers. He didnโ€™t fare much better in other advanced stats, with the notable exception of completion percentage over expected where he placed 12th. 

I bring all of this up because the pervading sense out of Pittsburgh about their first-round rookie is optimism, and that optimism largely stems from things Pickett did that canโ€™t be quantified as well. The Steelers finished the season 7-2 after the bye week following a 2-6 start, keeping alive HC Mike Tomlinโ€™s streak of never having a losing season. Pickett played a major role in that with some clutch performances, especially in the fourth quarter. He finished his rookie season with four game-winning drives. 

So as Pickett enters Year 2, you can make a case either way that the arrow is up or there’s cause for concern. Thatโ€™s not an uncommon place to be with a rookie quarterback. A lot comes down to the supporting cast. The Steelers arenโ€™t bereft of talent on offense but there are some questions about the offensive line. And there are major doubts about OC Matt Canada, whose scheme has come under a ton of fire. Weโ€™ve seen poor coaching hold back young quarterbacks like Lawrence and Patriots QB Mac Jones in recent years. Will Pickett join that list or is everyone underestimating him and Canada?

Lions: Detroit plays the underdog role well. How do they handle higher expectations? 

The Lions have been a lovable underdog for the past couple of years, as to be frank they havenโ€™t been very good. That wonโ€™t be the dynamic in 2023. Detroit pushed for a playoff spot this past season and knocked the Packers out in a game that didnโ€™t really have any material consequences for them. Theyโ€™ll be entering Year 3 under HC Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes, who have been tirelessly rebuilding the culture and the roster. The expectation will be for the team to take another step forward, and that means playoffs. 

On the one hand, getting to a point where making the playoffs is the expectation in Detroit is an accomplishment in itself. But thatโ€™s completely different for a team thatโ€™s been playing the underdog card. Theyโ€™re not going to sneak up on anyone anymore. The narrative will be different, the spotlight brighter. And nothing cuts people down in the NFL more than not meeting expectations. 

There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Campbellโ€™s squad. No oneโ€™s immune to missing expectations, though. 

Buccaneers: Did Todd Bowles learn his lesson with the Jets?

Tampa Bay was tough to watch for the vast majority of the 2022 season. Everything about the team felt disjointed, and when they did seem to get things together, it often seemed like it was due to the sheer force of QB Tom Bradyโ€™s will. Brady tied for second in the NFL with five game-winning drives in 2022. 

Obviously they wonโ€™t have Brady in 2023. The Buccaneers will also have an almost entirely brand-new offensive coaching staff after Bowles elected to make sweeping changes. Maintaining the status quo wouldnโ€™t have been wise after how bad Tampa Bay was on that side of the ball, but that kind of turnover presents its own challenges. Bowlesโ€™ last job with the Jets went south because he could never figure out how to get stability on the offensive side of the ball, and once again heโ€™s going to have the same challenge. 

Seahawks: Does everyone whoโ€™s supposed to get better actually get better? 

Nobody saw the Seahawks coming in 2022. But behind a ninth-year breakout from QB Geno Smith, a home-run draft class and a banner coaching job from HC Pete Carroll that reminded everyone โ€œoh yeah, this guy is a borderline Hall of Fame coach,โ€ Seattle stole a playoff berth. They lost to the 49ers in a game that served as a reminder this roster still has some ground to cover. But the parallels to the start of the Seahawks dynasty in the 2010s are hard to ignore.

To repeat history, they need all those promising young players like CB Tariq Woolen, LT Charles Cross, RT Abraham Lucas and RB Kenneth Walker to keep progressing. They donโ€™t need Smith to raise his game but it wouldnโ€™t hurt, and they definitely need him to stay steady. They also need to hit on another batch of draft picks, including their two first-round picks in April. 

That doesnโ€™t sound too bad, but itโ€™s important to remember progress often isn’t linear. There will be setbacks, injuries and regressions. But what helps Seattleโ€™s long-term outlook is that Carroll proved definitively in 2022 he wasnโ€™t as washed up and out of touch as some people, myself included, thought. Heโ€™s got plenty to work with and the NFL could have another tough Carroll-coached squad to deal with for years to come.  

Dolphins: Can the defense hold up their side of the bargain? 

New Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel lived up to his reputation as an offensive savant in his first season in Miami, designing and calling one of the leagueโ€™s most explosive and potent offenses. Two things derailed the Dolphins from having a really special season โ€” quarterback injuries and a leaky defense. 

Plenty of ink has been and will be spilled on the quarterback situation, as what should have been a breakout year for QB Tua Tagovailoa was overshadowed by two or three concussions. That complicates his long-term future in Miami after a season that otherwise would have answered those questions but for 2023 at least, the Dolphins know who and what they have at quarterback. McDaniel will need to tweak his scheme to stay ahead of defenses but theyโ€™re starting from further ahead on that side of the ball. 

The defense didnโ€™t get as much attention due to the quarterback injuries but that side of the ball let the Dolphins down time and time again in 2022, particularly when they were asked to do more with the issues on offense. Bringing in DC Vic Fangio was a home-run hire given his history on that side of the ball, so on paper at least, Miami should have a defense to match their offense in 2023. 

Chargers: Is it time for takeoff for Justin Herbert? 

Pretty much from his first snap, itโ€™s been clear that Herbert is a high-level talent at quarterback, with arm strength, accuracy, mobility, intelligence, toughness โ€” basically any attribute you could want in a player. Heโ€™s put up prolific stats but the on-field success has been slower to follow. The Chargers narrowly missed the playoffs in his second season and were knocked out in the wildcard round by the Jaguars this past year. Former Chargers OC Joe Lombardi was also a popular social media punching bag for an offense that loved short throws despite Herbertโ€™s obvious ability to do much, much more. 

The team evidently didnโ€™t think those criticisms were meritless, as they replaced Lombardi with former Cowboys OC Kellen Moore. He has a much more aggressive philosophy so itโ€™s likely we once again see Herbert light up the stat sheet. Can the Chargers turn that into wins and a run deep into the postseason? 

Ravens: Will they get a deal done with Lamar Jackson? 

This might be the biggest question in the entire NFL this offseason. At this point, the battle lines are well-drawn. Jackson wants a deal thatโ€™s 100 percent guaranteed, the Ravens donโ€™t want to set that kind of precedent. Unless one side or the other backs down, itโ€™s a stalemate. Baltimore can franchise tag Jackson this year and next year but at an incredibly high cost. Tagging him a third time is impractical, which means if Jacksonโ€™s willing to play out the next two seasons without a long-term deal and take on the risk of injury, he could be an unrestricted free agent in 2025. 

The injury question is not a small one for Jackson, whose best asset is his elite athleticism, even if heโ€™s a better passer than most give him credit for. For better or worse, though, heโ€™s shown heโ€™s comfortable gambling on himself. That shifts the onus onto the Ravens to decide how this is going to go. Is preserving the precedent of avoiding full guarantees worth losing Jackson? If they know theyโ€™re not going to give him a fully-guaranteed deal, they have to trade him at some point before next July to recoup value. Do they bite the bullet this offseason, or risk a drawn-out contract battle that puts a cloud over the season before it even begins?

Both sides have been tight-lipped about the details of this process, which is probably good for their relationship. It leaves the rest of us on the outside guessing, however, which is why thereโ€™s so much intrigue on how this situation could play out in 2023. 

Vikings: Was 2022 just a mirage? 

Unfortunately for Minnesota, their playoff loss to the Giants who were dismantled the following week by the Eagles only reinforced the narrative that the Vikings were paper tigers. The Vikings were 13-4 in 2022 overall but 9-0 in close games, which history tells us tend to even out to 50-50 over time. The year before with largely the same team the Vikings were 8-9 overall and 4-7 in close games. 

If I knew nothing else about the Vikings in 2023, that close game record alone would make me think 8-9 is a more likely outcome than double-digit wins. They of course have the whole year to try and defy those expectations. Itโ€™s unlikely theyโ€™ll have the same level of continuity, especially on defense. So that injects some variability into the projection. Minnesota wonโ€™t be able to run back the same team, which means thereโ€™s room to improve. And also room to get worse. 

Jaguars: Can Trevor Lawrence take another stride? 

We mentioned this briefly in the Steelers section, but Lawrenceโ€™s rookie season was pretty bad. We know now it was due to historically inept coaching from former HC Urban Meyer, because under the tutelage of HC Doug Pederson Lawrence looked like the guy everyone was so excited about for years before he was the No. 1 pick. 

There are still kinks to work out. The Jaguars are building up the roster and Lawrence is learning what he can and canโ€™t get away with in the NFL, as evidenced by his bout of turnovers, especially in the red zone, at midseason. From a pure talent perspective, however, Lawrence looks like he could one day โ€” perhaps soon โ€” be right at home in that elite tier of quarterbacks like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and perhaps more. Which is good news, because to reach the Super Bowl in the AFC, the Jaguars have to go through two or three of those names. 

Giants: What can Brian Daboll do with a better roster?

To me, Daboll is the runaway winner for the NFLโ€™s coach of the year award. The Giants had some talent to work with this year, like LT Andrew Thomas and RB Saquon Barkley. But they were relying on a lot of dollar store players, to put it one way. Receiver was a slog all season, with former practice squad players like Isaiah Hodgins and Richie James playing key roles along with Darius Slayton, who might be a No. 3 or No. 4 at best if youโ€™re drawing things up in the offseason. Rookie right tackle Evan Neal might be a good player someday but he struggled in 2022, and the interior of the line was patchworked with more rookies, journeymen and former practice squad players. And Daboll put all of this together to get the best season, by far, of embattled QB Daniel Jonesโ€™ career. 

We havenโ€™t even discussed a defense that was strong on the line of scrimmage but leaky in the back seven. There was a reason everyone was projecting the Giants to earn a top-10 pick before the start of the season. Itโ€™s hard to think of another coach who squeezed as much out of a roster as poor on paper as the Giants were in 2022. If I were a Giants fan, I would be over the moon about what this teamโ€™s potential could be under Daboll when they start closing the talent gap with some of these other NFL teams. 

Cowboys: Will Mike McCarthyโ€™s expanded control equal a breakthrough?

On the one hand, not having Sean Payton on the job market is one less source of pressure for McCarthy in Dallas. But thereโ€™s not really a way to turn that off completely when youโ€™re coaching in a pressure cooker environment like Dallas. Thatโ€™s why McCarthyโ€™s staff overhaul was more telling about his job security than any assurances from owner Jerry Jones. Back-to-back 12-win seasons isnโ€™t bad but McCarthy clearly understands itโ€™s not enough, not for him. 

With DC Dan Quinn in the fold to run what should once again be one of the NFLโ€™s best defenses, McCarthy is taking a firmer hand on the offense to try and make sure that side of the ball doesnโ€™t let Dallas down again. Given the way McCarthyโ€™s time in Green Bay ended and how prolific the offense had been under Moore, itโ€™s fair to have some doubts about how thatโ€™s going to go. 

Bills: Can they keep their window open?

The loss to the Bengals in the divisional round this past season was in a way more dispiriting than the two or three seasons before that Buffalo has been knocking on the door. After coming achingly close, the Bills were surprisingly non-competitive this past year. They roared out of the gates as one of the NFLโ€™s best teams but they just ran out of gas as the year progressed, whether it was injuries or things off the field, like the Damar Hamlin situation. 

All of a sudden there are a lot more questions in Buffalo than there have been. As long as the team has QB Josh Allen, the window wonโ€™t ever be closed completely. Even though heโ€™s still looking for his first Super Bowl appearance, Allenโ€™s talent undeniably keeps the Bills in the conversation. It becomes about finetuning the roster, staying healthy and honestly getting a little lucky, and the Bills thought they had the first thing figured out before getting bit by the last two. 

Everyoneโ€™s another year older now and the Bills are another year deeper into Allenโ€™s mega contract, making the margin for error to build a roster with more holes than we might have thought back in September more difficult. Every draft pick and every cap dollar spent matter more now, and the Bills have to get this right. Having an elite quarterback still doesnโ€™t guarantee a Super Bowl, even if it gets you close. 

Bengals: Can they break through before things start to get complicated? 

Truth be told, there really isnโ€™t a major question hanging over the Bengals this offseason. They have one of the best quarterbacks in football and the roster is in outstanding shape. They have tons of cap space and all of their draft picks to keep adding this offseason. In a year or two they might have to make some hard decisions once they pay Joe Burrow but for the time being, they can run back the core of a team that was a razorโ€™s edge from playing in its second straight Super Bowl. The only foreseeable major obstacle is if they lose DC Lou Anarumo to the Cardinals, as heโ€™s been a major part of their success on defense. 

The Bengals will rightfully be one of the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl in 2023, behind only the Chiefs and perhaps the Eagles. They have a golden window that should be open for at least one more season. They just have to take advantage of it. 

49ers: Whatโ€™s the plan at quarterback? 

Things can never be simple for the 49ers at quarterback apparently. Seventh-round sensation Brock Purdyโ€™s major elbow injury in the NFC title game not only scuttled San Franciscoโ€™s chances of winning but also complicated an already cloudy situation for the 2023 season. Purdy had played well enough to justify going into offseason and camp as the starter ahead of former first-round QB Trey Lance, who fractured his ankle back in Week 2. But the injury thrusts the inexperienced Lance back into the lead job for the offseason and potentially a major portion of camp. 

Lance remains a huge question mark because he just hasnโ€™t played much, period, dating back to his time in college at North Dakota State. He only had one year as a starter because the pandemic forced the FCS to delay their 2020 season. He didnโ€™t beat out veteran Jimmy Garoppolo as a rookie, due in part to injuries, and while he entered this past season as the starter, the ankle injury in Week 2 obviously wrecked that. 

Meanwhile, the injury to Purdy also puts his status up in the air, as heโ€™ll spend the bulk of the offseason rehabbing instead of working to improve going into his second season. That leaves the 49ers, who otherwise have all the makings of a Super Bowl contender, with an uncertain outlook at the most important position. But because of how well Purdy has played and how much they have invested in Lance, it makes for a weird dynamic to add a third quarterback to. 

It will be absolutely fascinating to see how the 49ers handle this. The only thing we can seemingly say for sure is that Garoppolo, after years of speculation, will finally not be a 49er. 

Chiefs: Can they make things a little easier for Patrick Mahomes?

Kansas City is getting a lot of praise this week for how theyโ€™ve managed to turn trading one of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL and a youth movement on defense into a Super Bowl bid. Itโ€™s probably why Mahomes is going to win his second MVP award. All of the praise and all of the accolades are deserved, even if they lose. 

But if they do lose, itโ€™s probably because thereโ€™s a gap in overall, top-to-bottom talent between the Chiefs roster and the Eagles roster. The good news for Kansas City is they are in great position to be able to address that this offseason. They can free up tons of cap space and they have plenty of picks. Theyโ€™re also a desirable location for players who want to chase a ring by playing with Mahomes, which could drive costs down. 

Obviously the Chiefs roster is good enough to make the Super Bowl but thereโ€™s room to go get a receiver or two who can make Mahomesโ€™ job easier like Hill did. They could reinforce the offensive line even more, or go get more juice for the pass rush. There are plenty of possibilities as the Chiefs chase building the next NFL dynasty. 

Eagles: How does the team change when Jalen Hurts isnโ€™t cheap anymore? 

Philadelphiaโ€™s team this year is the poster child for maximizing the window a high-level quarterback on a rookie contract can give a franchise. Hurts counted just $1.6 million against the cap for the Eagles this past season, which freed them up to stack the roster with guys like WR A.J. Brown, C Jason Kelce, CB James Bradberry, DE Haason Reddick and many, many more. 

Hurtsโ€™ cap hit should remain pretty reasonable for another season or two but the unavoidable fact is heโ€™s about to take up a much bigger chunk of the Eaglesโ€™ cap space, and theyโ€™re going to have to change the way they build as a result. Guys like Bradberry and DT Fletcher Cox and potentially several others might not be back as a result, as the Eagles just wonโ€™t be able to afford to keep the whole team as is. The natural curve of aging will have a say in the matter too. 

Eagles GM Howie Roseman has proven he deserves every benefit of the doubt as one of the leagueโ€™s top general managers but heโ€™ll have yet another challenge in front of him again. 

This Week In Football

  • There might be some action happening behind the scenes, but on the surface things have been quiet this week for some of the biggest NFL stories, including the coaching searches for the Cardinals and Colts and the market for Raiders QB Derek Carr. Arizona and Indianapolis are the final two open head coaching jobs and neither appear to be in a big rush to make a hire. The Cardinals are waiting until after the Super Bowl to announce a hire. Colts owner Jim Irsay came out earlier this week and said it would be โ€œdays, not hoursโ€ before his team announced a move. It seems like they also are going to wait until after the Super Bowl. Neither team seems to be directly competing for anyone โ€” Arizona is down to Bengals DC Lou Anarumo and Giants OC Mike Kafka as its two finalists, neither of whom are on the Coltsโ€™ list of seven. However, the wrinkle here is the Super Bowl, as Eagles OC Shane Steichen is a finalist for the Colts and could be someone the Cardinals are interested in as well. They missed their window to interview him while they were wrapping up their GM search. Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon is another name to keep in mind for Arizona, even though heโ€™s said heโ€™s staying in Philadelphia. Arizona hasnโ€™t had a chance to pitch him on reconsidering. 
  • Things are also going to come to a head with Carr by early next week at the absolute latest. The Raiders will need to release him on Tuesday to avoid the $40 million in guarantees that come due on Wednesday โ€” assuming they donโ€™t find a trade partner before then. While the odds seem to be against a trade, hope is not lost. Carr wrapped up a visit with the Saints on Thursday and there seems to be a lot of mutual interest. The question with Carr was always going to be if a trade would be more appealing to him than being cut and hitting unrestricted free agency. The advantages of free agency are getting to talk to every team thatโ€™s interested โ€” and there should be plenty โ€” time to find the best fit and leverage to cash in on a deal. From the acquiring teamโ€™s perspective, itโ€™d be ideal to simply sign Carr instead of having to give up a pick in addition to taking on his contract. The argument for a trade for Carr would be eliminating the slim risk he wouldnโ€™t match $40 million guaranteed on the open market. For a team, a trade is a way to circumvent a free agency tour and box out other interested teams. If Carr likes the fit in New Orleans enough, he could pass up seeing what his other options are. From the Saintsโ€™ perspective, their chances of getting Carr might not be as good if they have to win a bidding war, and theyโ€™re looking at limited options to address their need at quarterback this offseason. Ultimately, I would still bet on Carr being cut and signing elsewhere rather than being traded but Iโ€™m not as confident about that as I would have been last week. 
  • There were a number of prominent coordinator hires this past week, especially on the defensive side of the ball. And the big winner was the Carolina Panthers, who reeled in former Broncos DC Ejiro Evero to be the defensive coordinator under new HC Frank Reich. Evero interviewed for all five head coaching vacancies, including Carolinaโ€™s, and was a hot name on the defensive coordinator market as well with connections to the Vikings, Broncos and Rams. Carolina won out, however, and you have to think they paid up to do so. The Panthersโ€™ defense has been the strength of the team the past couple of seasons as a borderline top-10 unit, and they could be even better with the addition of Evero. 
  • Although the Vikings lost out on Evero, they landed a pretty good consolation prize. Former Dolphins HC and current Steelers LB coach Brian Flores will come to Minnesota to run the defense for HC Kevin Oโ€™Connell. His track record on that side of the ball is outstanding and heโ€™s known for a 3-4 system thatโ€™s heavy on pressure and man coverage. The Dolphins had a few games every year where they would just absolutely ruin the opposing quarterbackโ€™s day, even against good offenses. Flores was also a finalist for the Cardinals head coaching job, so itโ€™s interesting that he went ahead and took this job instead of waiting to see how things played out in Arizona. Perhaps itโ€™s an indication he didnโ€™t think the Cardinals were going to hire him, or perhaps Flores thought heโ€™d have better options in a year. 
  • A year ago, Steve Wilks was coming off a disappointing tenure as the defensive coordinator at Missouri after a year off from coaching and was hired as a secondary coach on lame-duck HC Matt Rhuleโ€™s staff in Carolina. Now, heโ€™s landed one of the top defensive coordinator jobs in football with the 49ers and was a finalist for the Panthers head coaching job following a 6-6 record as the interim. Thatโ€™s a career revival that we donโ€™t always see for coaches. Wilks certainly was a deserving candidate in Carolina, and deserving of more interest from other teams than he got. Heโ€™s in a position to change that in San Francisco, who have had their last two defensive coordinators snare head coaching jobs. Itโ€™s still unfortunately going to be an uphill battle. Itโ€™s just hard to be a defensive coach these days. Itโ€™s hard to get a head coaching job, and harder to keep one once you have it. Itโ€™s harder to do the actual job because they keep changing the rules to favor the offense and harder to get a second chance if you lose your job the first time. And if youโ€™re Black like Wilks, itโ€™s extra extra hard. 
  • The Saints hired former Browns DC Joe Woods to the same role on their staff and the Cowboys promoted senior consultant Brian Schottenheimer to offensive coordinator role to replace Kellen Moore. These are less notable, however, because in both cases the head coach will serve as the de facto coordinator. Saints HC Dennis Allen calls the plays and runs the defense in New Orleans, so Woods will be in more of a supplementary role. Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy is taking more of a hand in the offense in 2022, including play-calling, so the same is true for Schottenheimer. These are still important hires, however. Somes coaches are best in these supplemental roles and add considerable value. 
  • For the most part, contract talks between teams and pending free agents wonโ€™t really heat up until the NFL Scouting Combine in a few weeks. It sounds like the Seahawks and QB Geno Smith have been busy, though, with his contract the top order of business for Seattle this offseason. A long-term deal is the preferred outcome for both sides. It gives Smith a bigger pay-day and more long-term security after a breakout season, and for Seattle it helps them avoid sinking $32 million in cap space into a franchise tag this year. Both sides have to find the right number, though. At least for now, the tone is optimistic. 
  • Longtime NFL WR A.J. Green announced his retirement after 12 seasons, most of them in Cincinnati and the last two in Arizona. Injuries and age unfortunately marred the end of Greenโ€™s career but the beginning was as bright as just about anyoneโ€™s. He made seven straight Pro Bowls to start his career, and though he never made first-team All-Pro thatโ€™s more of an indictment on the APโ€™s insistence on just naming two receivers to the team for so long and the high level of receiver talent weโ€™ve seen in the past decade. 
  • Itโ€™s just the way the NFL works, but thereโ€™s going to be a ton of speculation about Tom Brady returning to the NFL until he stays retired for at least a year, probably two. And honestly, Brady has opened himself up to that, first by unretiring last year 40 days after his first announcement. The news that Brady wonโ€™t be starting his lucrative broadcast gig with Fox until fall of 2024 also undoubtedly raised eyebrows around the league. He says โ€” genuinely I believe โ€” itโ€™s to prioritize spending time with family, but the fact remains if the Dolphins or Bucs look like contenders in 2023 and lose their starting quarterback to injury, Bradyโ€™s going to be available. Iโ€™m not saying itโ€™s likely, but it definitely feels like if the perfect storm comes together, we could see Brady in an NFL uniform again. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFLโ€ฆ

With Hurts in the Super Bowl, now is a good time to look back at the reaction when he was drafted. Most people panned the pick. A few didnโ€™tโ€ฆ

A well-deserved victory lap here. But also, the longer you follow the NFL, the more you realize Kevinโ€™s point about the probabilities of the improbable is a good oneโ€ฆ

In the 22 Super Bowls since 2001, seven different quarterbacks have represented the AFC. For the NFC, that number is 19โ€ฆ

Only three quarterbacks have made multiple Super Bowl appearances representing the NFC: Kurt Warner, Eli Manning and Russell Wilsonโ€ฆ

There was a neat note this week on Mahomesโ€™ 10-year contract, which has been good for both the team and the player. Guaranteed money didnโ€™t become a hangup in those talks because Kansas City did rolling guarantees, with each yearโ€™s base salary guaranteeing a year or two out. Would that be an attractive compromise for the Ravens and Jackson? 

Kansas City and Philadelphia have two of the best offensive lines in the league, so hopefully this becomes an opportunity for all of us to learn more about line play. This piece on Lane Johnson and his โ€œfalse startsโ€ is great, too. The money quote: โ€œIf youโ€™re not pulled over going 45 in a 40, are you speeding?โ€…

The NFL sparked an outcry from defensive players and commentators when they said they were going to take a look at โ€œhip dropโ€ tackles and making them illegal. Itโ€™d definitely be another rule change that makes it harder to play defense, and normally Iโ€™d be against that, but I think the league might be on to something here. Hip drop tackles are illegal in rugby due to how often they cause injuries, and this primer on what is and isnโ€™t a hip drop tackle was illuminating. If Iโ€™m understanding correctly, this tackle that injured Tony Pollard would be a hip dropโ€ฆ

But this other high-profile one on Mahomes would not beโ€ฆ

If thatโ€™s what ends up being the case, I think Iโ€™d be okay with it. Football is a violent game and you canโ€™t legislate all the violence out of it. But the game has been just fine, arguably better, by taking out things like horse collar tackles, head slaps, diving at the quarterback’s feet in the pocket and spearing. This falls more into that category for meโ€ฆ

Planting my flag now. Russ is gonna be back in the kitchen cooking with gas in 2023. Letโ€™s rideโ€ฆ

Denverโ€™s draft capital is undoubtedly diminished but it rebounds next year. They have only five picks this year, though two are in the third round. In 2024 the Broncos will have their first, two thirds, a fourth, two fifths and two seventhsโ€ฆ

The hilarious source of all the script jokes floating around Twitter recentlyโ€ฆ

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