What’s Next For The Browns & Deshaun Watson?

Deshaun Watson’s season officially came to an end on Sunday, when he tore his Achilles against the Bengals. The embattled Browns quarterback already had a tumultuous tenure in Cleveland, with an 11-game suspension in 2022, his first season with the team, and a season-ending shoulder injury in 2023 taking him off the field for long stretches. 

When Watson has been on the field, he hasn’t played well. He’s currently the 27th-ranked quarterback by PFF grade around names such as Tyler Huntley, Bo Nix and Jacoby Brissett. The Browns offense set records for ineptitude each week with Watson under center and fans were hoping another off-field scandal would give the Browns an escape hatch out of his enormous contract.

It’s worth revisiting what the Browns gave up to acquire Watson. Back in 2022, they traded three first-round picks, a third, and two fourths for Watson and a sixth. They then signed him to a massive five-year $230 million deal, every penny guaranteed, expecting him to be a premium quarterback that could take their team to the next level.

It hasn’t worked out that way. Now it’s time to examine the future for both Watson and the Browns.

Just how bad was Watson?

PFF may have Watson as the 27th-best quarterback this season, but that might be painting too rosy a picture. Watson ranks at or near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories, including yards per game, quarterback rating, sacks (12 more taken than the next closest quarterback), and yards per attempt.

There’s more. Watson’s highest PFF grade as a Brown was 2023 with a 68.2. He’s been sacked 74 times across 23 games, has 16 big-time throws against 19 turnover-worthy plays, and a 19/12 touchdown/interception ratio.

PFF’s advanced metrics provide a more complete — and somehow even worse — view of Watson’s play. Since 2022, Watson ranks in the second percentile in sack rate, ninth percentile in clean pocket grade, 12th percentile in grade on plays with no play action, and 20th percentile in standard dropback grade. Those are some of PFF’s stable metrics, meaning they are reliably predictive of future performance.

Nothing Watson has done since arriving in Cleveland suggests he can turn things around.

Any basic film review will match the stats, and any casual viewer could tell just from watching a handful of Watson’s passes that he’s playing horribly. Watson has consistently in the past three years failed to read the field or properly go through his progressions, missed passes inexplicably, took way, way too many sacks and generally played a with a complete lack of rhythm or confidence. 

Watson has been arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL over the last three seasons. If it weren’t for his contract and the massive haul the Browns gave up to get him, he would have been benched long ago. Speaking of that contract….

Watson’s contract

The Browns were one of a handful of teams pursuing Watson in a trade from the Texans in 2022. What set them apart from the other suitors, however, was their willingness to sign him to a brand-new, five-year, fully-guaranteed, $230 million deal. It blew away all other competitors, and it got the Browns back in the mix after Watson had initially ruled them out. It was near the top of the market in average annual value and only the second-ever big-time, fully guaranteed quarterback contract. 

While he wasn’t the first quarterback to sign a fully guaranteed deal — Kirk Cousins made a career out of it — the length of this contract, combined with the massive APY value it carried, made it an eyebrow-raiser. Reports at the time were that other NFL owners weren’t happy with Jimmy Haslam and Dee Haslam, the couple who own the Browns. Watson’s deal has continued to be an aberration in terms of guarantees, with other quarterbacks not securing fully guaranteed deals. 

The structure gives the Browns zero flexibility with Watson’s contract. All of the money comes due at some point. They can’t cut him to free up cap space and the deal is far too burdensome for another team to bail Cleveland out with a trade. The cap hits the next two years are massive — nearly $73 million in 2025 and 2026 before an additional $27 million in dead money left over from previous restructures. cap hit in 2027, one of two void years in Watson’s deal. One way or another, the Browns have to process $173 million on their books over the next couple of years and the only thing they can do is rearrange it a little. 

Who’s under center for Cleveland in 2025?

Because of the contract, Watson is virtually locked onto the roster in 2025. Cutting him would trigger all $173 million to hit the cap at the same time — an amount that literally would threaten Cleveland’s ability to field a team. Even a June 1 cut would put just under $100 million in dead money on the Browns’ books in 2026, blowing past the previous NFL record for dead money.

But it’s time for the Browns to explore other options. Watson has played his way out of Cleveland — running things back with him next year is asking for a locker-room disaster. The injury history is also a huge concern, if nothing else. The Browns still have some talent and a handful of star players. With better quarterback play, they could find their way back to respectability as soon as next year.

Unfortunately, the projected free-agent quarterback options aren’t terribly enticing. Sam Darnold and Justin Fields are the top options. Fields is playing better now in Pittsburgh than he was in Chicago, but he still left the Steelers wanting more and was benched for Russell Wilson.

Darnold is more interesting. He’s enjoying a breakout year in Minnesota. The Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy out of Michigan in the first round this past draft, so Darnold isn’t expected to be the future there. Still, he’s looked the part so far this season, seemingly paying off the high potential that led the Jets to draft him No. 3 overall in 2018. We’ll see how the rest of the season goes, but Darnold would be a solid option. Of course, Darnold might very well play his way into a bigger contract than the Browns can afford to give him. Watson’s massive cap hit, even if adjusted with a restructure, doesn’t leave Cleveland much room to work with.

The Browns could go bargain shopping, potentially re-signing veteran QB Jameis Winston if he plays well down the stretch. They also have QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson on a rookie contract as a developmental option, and he’ll probably get a look as the Browns play out the string. They could reunite with Brissett or even Joe Flacco, or roll the dice on a reclamation project like Zach Wilson or Mac Jones. 

More than likely, the Browns will look to the draft to find their next quarterback. It’s early, but right now, I have three quarterbacks with a first-round grade: Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward. These three, as well as the rest of the class, still have the rest of the college football season, plus the all-star and workout circuits, to go through before final draft evaluations are completed.

All three have exciting traits, though, and reasons for the Browns to be optimistic about them. Milroe is a big-bodied, athletic quarterback. He’s got a rocket arm and real playmaking ability. Sanders has high-level football IQ and an innate feel for the game. And Ward makes the crazy plays seem simple on a weekly basis.

Whichever direction the Browns choose to go, it’s time to move on from Watson and start a new chapter in Cleveland.

Watson’s future prospects

Watson has a nine-month rehab ahead of him even though he’ll probably be on the roster, and the team probably won’t be rushing him back. In theory, the Browns could keep him on injured reserve until they’re ready to move on. The best-case scenario is Cleveland allows him a chance to compete against a newcomer or two. They have staunchly defended him after all for the past three years, ignoring the mounting evidence to the contrary that he couldn’t play anymore. But in a true competition, this version of Watson will be hard-pressed to beat anyone of consequence.

When Watson is cut, it’s always possible he could land somewhere on a cheap deal with a team curious if they can revive him. The demand at the quarterback position never goes away. But Watson has been so bad and so radioactive that it’s equally possible no team wants to sign up for the headache.

Considering the circumstances, there’s a real chance this injury marks the end of Watson’s NFL career. We’ve already gone over just how poorly Watson’s play has been, and coming off a serious injury he might be even worse next season. His off-field issues continue to haunt him, which will give prospective teams pause in signing him. NFL teams don’t balk at players with questionable pasts — as long as they play well enough to justify the risk to the front office. 

Watson hasn’t reached that bar for a long, long time.