Winners & Losers from Day 1 of Free Agency

With the first unofficial day of free agency mostly in the books, we can take a step back and evaluate how teams, players, positions, and more fared. The legal tampering window opened today at noon and teams got busy right away, agreeing to a multitude of contracts across the league.

Many of the top free agents are already off the board and more are sure to come tomorrow and the rest of the week. Let’s discuss some winners and losers from Day 1 of free agency:

Winner: Kirk Cousins

Kirk got his bag. Cousins signed a 4-year, $180 million contract with the Falcons to be their new starting quarterback. That’s $45 million APY. Cousins had been signing fully guaranteed deals with the Vikings in the $30-35 million range. While his deal with the Falcons only guarantees $100 million, that’s a significant bump in APY over more years.

Not only is Cousins already 35, but he’s also coming off an Achilles tear. He’s expected to be ready for the start of the season but that is a big risk to assume for an older quarterback coming off a serious injury. Still, he’s a massive upgrade under center for Atlanta, who now hopes he can unlock the offensive firepower they’ve been investing in.

Loser: The Carolina Panthers

Oh boy. Where to start. The Panthers entered the day with a lot of ground to cover: they wanted to upgrade QB Bryce Young’s protection, add weapons for him to throw to, and both retain key defensive free agents and potentially sign some upgrades there, as well. They did manage to accomplish one of those things, signing G Robert Hunt from Miami, who will slot in as an immediate upgrade on the interior.

Everything else, however, didn’t go their way. The Panthers lost LB Frankie Luvu to the conference-rival Commanders and traded star ED Brian Burns to the Giants for a paltry return. After turning down two firsts from the Rams at the 2022 trade deadline, all the Panthers got in return from the Giants were a 2024 second and future fifth.

To add insult to injury, Carolina signed Hunt to a $100 million contract when the other top guards on the market signed for roughly half that or less. There’s no way to look at this as anything but a massive loss for the Panthers. There’s still time to improve things over the coming days, but they’ll be hurting from today’s transactions for a long time.

Winner: The Running Back Market

Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley both got significant multi-year contracts at about $12 million APY value. While their markets were expected to be strong, this is still good news for the much-maligned position. Both Jacobs and Barkley struggled to negotiate high-value contracts last offseason and were forced to play on the franchise tag.

$12 million APY comes in around Nick Chubb’s contract, which had been a contract most teams weren’t willing to match with their star backs. It comes in just under the contract Jonathan Taylor signed last offseason with the Colts, marking the first time in a few years we’ve seen multiple running back contracts come in near the top of the market.

Even D’Andre Swift signed a 3-year deal with Chicago worth $8 million APY, signaling a strong second tier of running back contracts that other players can negotiate off in the future. While running backs are still struggling to reset the market, as no one has come close to matching or exceeding Christian McCaffrey’s or even Alvin Kamara’s deals, it’s a much better outlook than it was just a year ago.

Loser: Aaron Jones

In a very surprising move this afternoon, the Packers elected to sign RB Josh Jacobs to a 4-year deal and subsequently cut fan-favorite RB Aaron Jones. Jones was expected to start in Green Bay once again this year, and while the Packers were actively looking for running back reinforcements, Jones played well down the stretch in 2023 and was expected to remain the starter.

Now he’ll look to sign elsewhere. While it’s unlikely Jones will match the Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, or Saquon Barkley deals, he may get something in the range of D’Andre Swift’s or Austin Ekeler’s new deals. Swift signed a 3-year deal for $24 million and Ekeler got 2 years for $11.4 million. Something in the 2-3 year range for $6-8 million APY is probably in the cards for Jones.

Winner: Offensive Guards

The market for good guards proved to be very strong, as a number of quality starting guards were signed to big deals right away. Jonah Jackson, Robert Hunt, Jermaine Eluemunor, Jon Runyan, Michael Onwenu, and Graham Glasgow all got paid, and the action probably isn’t done yet. Even Cs Mitch Morse and Aaron Brewer got a good chunk of change from the Jaguars and Dolphins, respectively.

That doesn’t even include Kevin Dotson or Ezra Cleveland, who re-signed with their current teams for big-money deals in the days leading up to the legal tampering period. Interior offensive line play is critical for a team’s offense to function well, and NFL teams are paying good money to make sure it isn’t a problem for them.

Loser: Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick

With the Eagles agreeing to terms with ED Bryce Huff on a big 3-year, $51.1 million deal, the future for Philadelphia’s starting edge defender duo is suddenly up in the air. Both were previously made available for trade, but it was assumed that the Eagles would need to keep at least one. That may no longer be the case.

Franchise stalwart Brandon Graham was just brought back on a one-year deal, and 2023 first-rounder Nolan Smith figures to be a larger factor in the rotation this season. With Huff in the fold, the Eagles could theoretically trade both Reddick and Sweat, perhaps using a Day 1 or 2 pick this year on another edge rusher if they wanted. They’re already paying one edge rusher big money, it’s unlikely they want to pay multiple.