2024 NFL Offseason Primer: Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos

Projected Cap Space: -$20.5 million

Draft Picks: 6

• 1st (No. 12)
• 3rd (No. 76)
• 4th (No. 122, MIA)
• 5th (No. 144, NYJ)
• 5th (No. 146)
• 7th (No. 237, LAR)

Notable Free Agents: 

• C Lloyd Cushenberry
• LB Josey Jewell
• S P.J. Locke
• K Wil Lutz
• OT Cameron Fleming
• DT Mike Purcell
• DL Jonathan Harris (RFA)
• TE Adam Trautman
• CB Fabian Moreau
• CB K’Waun Williams
• FB Michael Burton

Top Three Needs

1 – Defensive Front

Realistically quarterback is the biggest need for the Broncos, but that’s a unique situation we’ll get more into later. Denver has plenty of other places it could stand to improve on the roster, but it’s also in an interesting position because there aren’t a lot of glaring weaknesses. The Broncos are average. They’re not awful and they’re not good, just average. The catch is it’s a lot easier to go from average to terrible than it is to go from average to good or even great. 

Besides better quarterback play, the best way to elevate an average team is by reinforcing the line of scrimmage. The Broncos attacked the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in free agency a year ago, and heading into 2024 they have more work to do on the defensive side. Denver was soft against the run, even outside of allowing 350 yards rushing to the Dolphins. The Broncos surrendered more than 100 yards rushing in 10 of 17 games and in six of those gave up more than 170.

Starting nose tackle D.J. Jones is a likely cut candidate, while both Purcell and Harris are on expiring contracts. Denver could completely revamp the room and get two new starters next to DL Zach Allen in base defense. 

On the edge, trading away players like Von Miller and Bradley Chubb while missing on Randy Gregory in free agency has left the unit short of punch and star power. However, the Broncos were still able to cobble together some form of a pass rush behind the trio of Jonathon Cooper, Baron Browning and Nik Bonitto. The three combined for 21 sacks last season and it’s a solid room overall. Cooper is the best run defender and got 8.5 sacks while starting all 17 games and leading the room in snaps. Bonitto took advantage of an injury to Browning to step into a bigger role in his second season, while Browning has the highest ceiling and seemed poised for a breakout before getting hurt early last season. He still notched 4.5 sacks in about half a season of snaps. 

But while this group isn’t bad, it’s also not good enough to get the Broncos where they ultimately want to go. Adding a star edge rusher to this group could push everyone into more complementary roles that allow their skills to shine brighter and minimize their limitations. Perhaps someone like Browning or Bonitto takes a step forward and becomes that guy, but the Broncos will likely keep an eye out for further help, especially because both Cooper and Browning are entering contract years. 

2 – Cornerback

Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II is a top-two player at his position and proved that again after some early bumps in the road adjusting to new DC Vance Joseph‘s scheme. Denver also found a hidden gem in slot CB Ja’Quan McMillian who grew into a starting role later in the season. It was that third starting spot that was a problem point all season. 

Denver traded up for CB Riley Moss in the third round last year but an injury set his development back and the Broncos didn’t think he was ready to play. That says something, as they were in a bind. Second-year CB Damarri Mathis became a liability after being serviceable as a rookie and the team ultimately stuck with journeyman veteran CB Fabian Moreau as the lesser evil. 

Mathis and Moss remain on the roster but it’d be a hard sell for the Broncos to rely on them alone as starters unless they just run out of resources this offseason. Cornerback is a spot that’s mocked to them in the first round frequently because their pick is in a sweet spot for the position, assuming they don’t use it on a quarterback. They could also find a veteran in free agency as a one-year stopgap to give time for a younger player to develop. 

3 – Wide Receiver

Don’t the Broncos have so many receivers that they were willing to trade one pretty much all of last year? Yes, and I think that says a lot about how Payton views Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. While he and GM George Paton turned down some solid offers — one report indicates a team was willing to give up a third-round pick for Jeudy — I don’t think Payton believes the Broncos are dangerous enough on offense. The first draft pick of his Broncos tenure was used on WR Marvin Mims, and that was before veteran WR Tim Patrick tore his ACL in the summer. 

I don’t think Payton thinks he can’t win with the group as currently constructed, as some of his frustration toward Wilson was due to his inability to get the ball out on time to the weapons he did have. However, when he was with the Saints Payton had a history of getting a lot of production out of unheralded players on offense. If you gave him truth serum (or just put him in front of a TV camera) I think he’d admit the difference between Sutton and Lil’Jordan Humphrey isn’t worth $13 million. 

I think the Broncos will be open to shedding expensive players on offense like Jeudy and Sutton if they think it will help them better balance the roster. I think that was true last year, there just weren’t teams willing to meet their asking price. The real question here might be whether it comes down. Trading Jeudy would shed his nearly $13 million guaranteed salary from the fifth-year option, but because of that the best offer Denver could realistically expect is probably a fourth, maybe a late third max. Sutton is older and costs just as much, so he’d likely fetch less, perhaps a fifth. 

One Big Question

Can Payton find his next Brees? 

One year of working with QB Russell Wilson was all HC Sean Payton could take. With a less painful exit for Wilson’s onerous contract coming up, the Broncos are taking the off-ramp even though it still will leave them dealing with $85 million in dead money. It might mean a short-term downgrade, but honestly Denver’s ceiling with Wilson likely isn’t much higher than it was last year when the team was right around league average. 

Whether or not the Broncos call it one, it’s clear they’re entering a rebuild and the most important part of any rebuild is finding a capable quarterback. Payton remains a good coach but the biggest difference between his last two years on a sideline and the rest of his career is not having Drew Brees at quarterback. For his career, Payton has a 135-77 record with Brees, which is a winning percentage of .636. Without Brees, Payton is 25-21, a still respectable .543 winning percentage but considerably worse. 

Obviously life is much easier with a Hall of Fame quarterback, but the point I’m trying to make is that Payton knows a coach is only as good as his quarterback lets him be. For him to accomplish the goals he has for this second arc of his career, he has to find another Brees. 

No pressure right? 

Finding a franchise quarterback is tough but Denver’s quest won’t be made any easier by the significant cash they’ve sunk into Wilson, or a depleted stock of draft picks due to trades for both Wilson and Payton. They’ll have to be creative and thorough, and it might mean Payton has to take a chance. But then again, that’s how he and Brees ended up together back in 2006. Maybe history can repeat itself.