Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett became the first coordinator to lose his job this season but he won’t be the last. The NFL is legendary for its coaching turnover but the instability is far worse for coordinators than it is head coaches. Out of 62 offensive and defensive coordinators — the 49ers don’t have a coach with the OC title and the Bucs don’t have one with the DC title — 48 are in their first or second year with their teams.
There are more factors leading to coordinator turnover, including positive ones like getting a promotion to run their own team as a head coach, but either way, change is the only constant for teams in this area.
So here’s a look at which other seats are heating up around the league. I’ve grouped the coordinators into three buckets; boiling, simmering and bubbling.
The first group is coordinators I think legitimately are at risk of losing their jobs during the season, which is a move usually made out of desperation and optics rather than a legitimate bid to fix the issues. Most changes will be made after the season, which is where the second and third groups fit in. The second group is off to a rocky start and could be squarely in the crosshairs come January, while the third is in a similar boat but has mitigating factors that are more likely to lead to another year on the job.
Boiling
Jaguars OC Press Taylor/Jaguars DC Ryan Nielsen
A hapless showing in London against the Bears ratcheted the pressure all the way back up on Jaguars HC Doug Pederson and his staff. If the 1-5 Jaguars weren’t staying the week in London ahead of next week’s game against the Patriots, there’s a strong chance the International series would have claimed a head coaching victim for the second straight week.
As it stands, it might only be forestalled for a week if the Jaguars lose to New England. Jaguars owner Shad Khan said before the season he thought this was the most talented team assembled under his watch and he was expecting big things, including a playoff berth. Instead, so much about the way the Jaguars have flopped to start the season has pointed the blame right back at the coaching staff.
Players up and down the roster are underperforming, perhaps no one more than QB Trevor Lawrence who should be hitting his stride. He signed a massive, $55 million per year extension this offseason and is in his third year under Pederson. Lawrence should be better than ever — instead he’s playing with a remarkable lack of confidence for someone in his situation and has continued to miss too many layups.
The Jaguars are undisciplined, ranking fifth in the NFL in pre-snap penalties. There are far too many mistakes on both sides of the ball, including blown coverages on defense and drops on offense. Pederson and other coaches keep coming back to some variation of “we just have to execute better,” but at some point, the lack of execution falls back on the coaching staff. And after this past weekend’s loss to the Bears, the dreaded “q” word — quit — was invoked.
#Jaguars safety Andre Cisco after today’s loss: “How should I say this…. A lot of quit.”
( @ActionSportsJax)pic.twitter.com/AUKU4U5egI
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 13, 2024
Coaches don’t tend to last long when the players start quitting. Even if Pederson holds onto his job, it might come at the expense of one of his underperforming coordinators. Taylor found himself on the hot seat at the end of last season when the Jaguars collapsed after Pederson ceded play-calling duties to him. But Pederson has been fiercely loyal to Taylor (his departure from Philadelphia was tied in part to a refusal to fire Taylor) and has continued to defend Taylor’s job performance this season. Taking back control of the play-calling might be one of the best levers Pederson has left to pull, but he might not take it unless his hand is forced.
There are problems on the other side of the ball, too. Jacksonville landed Nielsen after he was let go by the Falcons following just one year as the defensive coordinator. While Atlanta finished 11th in total defense, the Falcons canned the whole staff when changing head coaches and Nielsen shook loose. He coordinated a top-ten defense with the Saints in 2022, so there was a lot of optimism about the hire in Jacksonville.
Instead, the Jaguars are one of the worst defenses in the league. Nielsen’s scheme asks a lot of the secondary, including running a lot of man coverage and a lot of blitzing. It’s a hard defense to run without quality cornerbacks, which is why the Jaguars invested a lot in the position this offseason. But injuries in the secondary have left Jacksonville shorthanded, and Nielsen is still trying to run a lot of man coverage with the backups. The result has been a Jaguars defense that has been gashed all season.
The current state of affairs in Jacksonville is just not sustainable. Teams hate to make in-season changes and treat them as a last resort. But the Jaguars are quickly running out of options as the losses stack up. Lose to the one-win Patriots next week, and all bets are off.
Browns OC Ken Dorsey/DC Jim Schwartz
It’s been a miserable season in Cleveland so far. The Browns are 1-4 and there’s a laundry list of problems with the current team. The offensive line has been riddled with injuries, the defense has taken a big step back after leading the league in total defense a year ago, and none of the skill position players are playing consistently well.
But all those problems take a back seat to the biggest one which is under center. The Browns put all their eggs in the basket of QB Deshaun Watson, tailoring every decision to try and engineer success for the player they gave up the farm for in a trade three years ago. They’ve expressed nothing but confidence that Watson would eventually recapture the form he had before sitting out a full year and being suspended 11 games for sexual harassment, pointing to flashes of play and citing injuries as an excuse.
Watson is healthy this year. The team has invested serious draft capital, via trades and picks, into revamping the receiving corps to run more spread looks (catering to Watson again) instead of the multi-tight end sets that defined HC Kevin Stefanski’s system. They hired Dorsey to help with that transition as well. And the Browns are getting precious little for all their investment. Watson has yet to even top 200 yards passing in a game this year. The Browns entered Week 6 last in the NFL in offense and 30th in scoring. There have already been calls for Cleveland to bench Watson for backup QB Jameis Winston.
The Browns have too much invested in Watson — still over $90 million in guaranteed money for the next two seasons — to seriously consider benching him at the moment, even if it’s the right move. Their brain trust is locked into trying to salvage things, but that doesn’t mean changes aren’t on the table. While a different quarterback would likely help the offense run better, there are still clear problems with the system. The Browns are caught halfway between the spread offense Dorsey has run in the past and the ground-and-pound Stefanski scheme and the result is an offense with no identity.
Stefanski is still calling the plays, though he says with some input from Dorsey, so firing Dorsey would carry limited impact compared to other situations. If the Browns are looking for a change, though, there aren’t many options. Watson’s contract makes him virtually untouchable. Stefanski won Coach of the Year for the second time last year and just signed an extension, so that should last him through at least the end of the season. Dorsey is the most expendable person of consequence on the offense right now.
There also should be a discussion on the defensive side of the ball. Schwartz is a respected defensive mind who’s coached in the league for decades. He won the AP award for top assistant last year thanks to turning around the Browns’ defense in his first year, going from 14th to No. 1 in total defense. His scheme which relied on a ton of man coverage and generating pressure from the front four was a big hit thanks to players like DE Myles Garrett, CB Denzel Ward, DE Za’Darius Smith and CB Martin Emerson, to name a few.
Schwartz and the Browns have not been able to carry over that same success this year, however. Injuries have been a major factor, with Garrett, Ward, Smith and others dealing with ailments that have either hampered their effectiveness or caused them to miss time. Emerson looked like a breakout player last year but has taken a step back so far this season for a variety of reasons. So far, Schwartz has not adjusted his scheme to account for all of that.
I don’t know that Schwartz is at a major risk of losing his job in-season. He’s been too good for too long and too recently in the NFL. But things are bad in Cleveland and there aren’t really many people in the building who should feel confident in their job security if the losses continue to pile up.
Simmering
Colts DC Gus Bradley
Things are bad for the Colts on defense this year. Indianapolis entered Week 6 as the only team in the NFL to have surrendered over 2,000 total yards on defense. The Colts have been shredded through the air and on the ground alike, ranking 29th in pass defense and 30th in run defense.
Other metrics like scoring defense, success percentage and turnovers paint a slightly less grim picture — the Colts are 23rd in scoring defense, 24th in success percentage allowed and ninth in the league with eight takeaways. Still, the poor performance from the defense has been one of the biggest reasons behind Indianapolis’ slow start to the season. The Colts were bulldozed by a Packers squad starting Malik Willis at quarterback with less than three weeks in the system in Week 2 and were incapable of generating a stop in a shootout loss to the previously winless Jaguars in Week 5.
Bradley is a well-respected veteran defensive coordinator and Colts HC Shane Steichen has defended him in the media this past week. Bradley’s experience as a former head coach makes him a valuable asset for Steichen and allows him to put more focus on the offense. Indianapolis is down multiple starters up front like DT DeForest Buckner and DE Samson Ebukam, and GM Chris Ballard’s plan in the secondary to rely on in-house options and not aggressively pursue upgrades in the offseason has proved to be as iffy as it seemed in June. So there are some mitigating factors to consider.
That said, at some point the results have to be there. Bradley coordinated defenses that finished in the top ten in either scoring or yards for four straight years with the Chargers from 2017-2020. Since then, it’s been much more of a struggle. In the past three years, one with the Raiders and two with the Colts, Bradley’s defenses have finished 26th, 28th and 28th in scoring defense and 14th, 15th and 24th in yards allowed. Add in the results so far this season, and that’s a nosedive of a trend for Bradley.
The Colts entered the year with high hopes of contending for the division, and the struggles on defense have been a major reason they’ve underperformed. There’s not an obvious replacement for Bradley on staff right now if the Colts were to change things up midseason but it’s been three years of below average or worse results. Something has to give at some point.
Eagles OC Kellen Moore
Moore was the second half of the Eagles’ second-straight year with a clean sweep of both coordinator positions, and his hire was essentially the condition for HC Nick Sirianni to keep his job in 2024. Philadelphia’s offense has become stale in the past year or so and Moore was supposed to bring in fresh ideas to solve the playbook opponents had created to stop the Eagles offense. Some of the specific criticisms were a lack of motion and poor protection plans when opposing defenses schemed up blitzes.
The Eagles are using motion a lot more, going from last in the league in motion at the snap percentage in 2023 at 10.9 percent to 19th at 22.4 percent through four games this year. The jury is out on how they’re handling blitzes; so far QB Jalen Hurts is on track to have a sack percentage nearly three points higher than last year. Overall, the offense is middle of the pack in scoring and borderline top 10 in yards. In the most important measure, wins and losses, the Eagles are 3-2 after a 20-16 victory over the Browns that was probably closer than it should have been.
This will be an interesting situation to continue to monitor throughout the rest of the season, as this is a big year for both men. Moore and the Eagles need to find their stride on that side of the ball, or at least continue to win to buy time. If losses and poor results pile up on offense, Sirianni will be tempted to exert more of his influence on the offense in an effort to bolster his job security. And that might not be a good thing…
Bears OC Shane Waldron
Three straight wins by the Bears, including two straight scoring over 30 points, have lessened the pressure on Waldron that the early season struggles created. There was a player meeting with Waldron that got both sides back on the same page. The 45-year-old play-caller also took more off No. 1 overall QB Caleb Williams’ plate, found a better mix of skill position players and leaned more on the running game — and it helped with the latter that the offensive line has improved after an iffy start to the season.
But things in the league can change quickly and another lull could have Waldron feeling the heat again. Chicago has had the benefit of a run of soft defenses in the last three weeks, taking on the Rams, Panthers and Jaguars. Things don’t firm up until well after the bye in Week 7, with games against the Commanders, Cardinals and Patriots.
Then the Bears enter the gauntlet portion of their schedule: all six divisional games against the rest of the NFC North, all of which currently have winning records, plus a road game against the 49ers and a short-week game against the Seahawks. How Waldron, Williams and the Bears navigate that stretch is likely going to dictate whether he returns in 2025.
Cowboys DC Mike Zimmer
Just like I predicted back before the start of the season, the Cowboys are faltering and the bulk of the blame lies with the defense. Dallas is 3-3, and while the Cowboys are 12th in total defense, they’re 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game, scoring defense, success rate allowed and total defensive EPA.
Injuries have hit the Cowboys particularly hard on the defensive line which has contributed to their issues, including against the run. But at the same time, the personnel is similar to last year when the Cowboys were top five in points and yards. The biggest change is at coordinator with Zimmer taking over for Dan Quinn. Zimmer wasn’t in the NFL the last two years, and the two years before that his defenses with the Vikings finished in the bottom five in total defense.
So far it seems like Dallas is on track for something similar, although the talent on the defense so far has stopped things from bottoming out. For instance, the Cowboys entered Week 6 in the top five in pressure rate against opposing quarterbacks (although it resulted in just 11 sacks). It’ll be up to Zimmer to use his decades of experience as a defensive coordinator to stem the tide, because the 3-3 Cowboys are about to hit a gauntlet coming out of the bye with games against the 49ers, Falcons, Eagles and Texans. If they get pantsed in that stretch like they just got pantsed by the Lions, the temperature could turn up on Zimmer, HC Mike McCarthy and a lot of people in Dallas.
Raiders DC Patrick Graham
People who break down the game of football in greater detail than I’m capable of, both inside and outside the NFL, have lots of positive things to say about Graham. He’s twice coordinated defenses that have finished in the top 10 in scoring defense, including in 2020 with the Giants and 2023 with the Raiders. It’d be fair to say those results exceeded the expectations given what Graham had to work with in terms of personnel each year.
Entering this season, expectations were higher for Graham and the Raiders, as the defense was supposed to be the strength of the team while the offense just tried not to screw things up too much. But the Raiders have broken instead of bent this season. They’re 14th in yards per game, but 27th in points per game. They’ve been shredded for 30+ points by the Panthers and QB Andy Dalton, the Broncos and first-round QB Bo Nix, and most recently the Steelers and QB Justin Fields. Entering Week 6, the Raiders led the NFL in missed tackles with 56.
Graham is highly thought of in the building, so it’s unlikely a quick hook would be coming. But the larger overall struggles cast some doubt about the future of HC Antonio Pierce beyond this season, and if he’s gone, Graham could end up on the move again.
Bubbling
49ers DC Nick Sorensen
Sorensen got the nod as an internal promotion to replace former DC Steve Wilks, who lasted just one year in the role replacing former 49ers DC and current Texans HC DeMeco Ryans. The 49ers also added former Chargers HC Brandon Staley to the defensive staff to help the 46-year-old Sorensen, who inside the San Francisco building was viewed as a rising star.
While it’s still early, the 49ers’ defense has been their biggest weakness of the 2024 season. San Francisco hasn’t been bad, but compared to the last few years when the 49ers were one of the best defensive units in football, they’ve been a tier or three below that level. After Thursday’s Week 6 win, San Francisco was 14th in the league in yards allowed per play and 18th in success rate allowed.
The unit is still in or near the top five in takeaways and sacks, so it’s not quite a disaster by any means. From a personnel perspective, injuries and offseason losses have also left the 49ers as depleted as they’ve been on defense in a while, especially on the defensive line. Still, it’s worth mentioning Sorensen here because clearly the 49ers’ defense isn’t up to the standard they’ve set over the past few years and that can only continue for so long before HC Kyle Shanahan loses patience.
Giants OC Mike Kafka
Kafka was viewed as a rising star after his first season with the Giants during their playoff run in 2021, earning a flurry of head coaching interviews. His star lost a lot of shine with the Giants’ struggles last year, which included periodic demotions from the play-calling role by HC Brian Daboll. Kafka flirted with leaving this past offseason but was blocked from taking a lateral move by the Giants even though Daboll was taking over the play-calling duties full-time.
Heading into 2025, Kafka is worth watching because most assistant coach contracts are for three years. Assuming he didn’t sign an extension, which seems reasonable given the behind-the-scenes reports of turmoil and his willingness to interview for lateral jobs, this year would be the last year of Kafka’s deal in New York, making him a coaching free agent this offseason.
Ravens DC Zach Orr
Orr is a first-year coordinator and one of the league’s youngest assistants at just 32 years old. Baltimore has gotten off to a relatively slow start on defense, ranking 25th in points per game. This week, the team hired former longtime assistant Dean Pees to join the staff in a consulting role and help Orr. There’s a lot of season left and the Ravens have a good history of developing assistant coaches, but the slow start is worth noting.
Rams DC Chris Shula
Another first-year coordinator heading up a struggling defense, the Rams have a lot less talent than the Ravens, so the leash and learning curve will presumably be longer. Rams HC Sean McVay isn’t always the most patient coach, however, so progress down the stretch is needed. The Rams are one of the NFL’s worst defenses right now. Finishing in the high 20s would constitute a step forward.
Patriots OC Alex Van Pelt
While the Patriots have one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL, it’s still hard for offensive coordinators to survive the kinds of results New England is getting on that side of the ball right now. Van Pelt has a chance to make progress with first-round QB Drake Maye in the lineup now, and needs to show that he’s the right person to shepherd Maye’s development for the future.
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