2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Key Storylines For Week 13

As the weather gets colder, the playoff race in the NFL starts to heat up. The postseason doesn’t start until January but the games between now and then will take on increased importance. 

Here’s a look at the NFL playoff picture, along with the most important games of the week and the storylines to watch as teams jockey for position. 

Resources:

• NFL tiebreakers
• Playoff probabilities via the Athletic
• Independent playoff probabilities

Current Standings

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3)
4. Houston Texans (7-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
7. Denver Broncos (7-5)

In the hunt

1. Miami Dolphins (5-6)
2. Indianapolis Colts (5-7)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (10-1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (9-2)
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-5)
4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
5. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
7. Washington Commanders (7-5)

In the hunt

1. Arizona Cardinals (6-5)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
3. Los Angeles Rams (5-6)
4. San Francisco 49ers (5-6)
5. New Orleans Saints (4-7)
6. Chicago Bears (4-7)
7. Dallas Cowboys (4-7)

Storylines To Watch This Week

No. 1 Seeds

Both the Lions and Chiefs have jumped out to commanding starts this year and sit in pole position for the top seed in their respective conference and the only first-round bye up for grabs. Detroit’s lone loss was earlier this season to the Buccaneers, while the Chiefs slipped up in Week 11 to the Bills. Both teams have several others nipping at their heels. 

In Kansas City’s case, the Bills are just a half-game behind them with the advantage of the head-to-head tiebreaker if the Chiefs slip up again. Here is the remaining schedule for both squads: 

The Bills have an advantage of three straight games against weak AFC East competition to close the season. The Chiefs have some games they should win handily as well against the Raiders and Browns, but also face off against the Chargers, Steelers, Texans and Broncos, all of whom are currently in the playoff field. Buffalo’s only game against a current playoff team is a humdinger against the Lions. The Bills have to take care of business, but things are setting up well for them to nudge the Chiefs out of the top spot. 

As for the Lions, they have a bigger group chasing them, led by the Eagles who are one game back at 9-2. Detroit also has to hold off the Vikings and Packers in the NFC North, and will face each of them down the stretch in addition to two games against the Bears. The Eagles have cross-conference matchups against the Ravens and Steelers before finishing with the second round of games against the rest of the NFC East. They probably have the more advantageous schedule but whoever gets the No. 1 seed in the NFC will have earned it.

Race For The NFC West

Before the season began, a lot of people thought the NFC West could be the best division in football. It’s certainly been the most competitive. No team in the division is better than 6-5 but all four of the Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams and 49ers still have a chance to win the division and book a playoff trip. 

The Seahawks have a tenuous hold on first place at the moment thanks to beating the Cardinals this past week. However, most projections, including from The Athletic, give Arizona a better than 50 percent chance to still win the division and/or make the playoffs compared to around 25 or 30 percent for Seattle. Arizona has a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way and a 2-1 division record compared to 2-2 for Seattle. The two play again in Week 14. 

The Rams and 49ers are both still hanging around at 5-6, just a game back in theory. The Rams have three more division games to try and make up ground, they just have to stay alive. A loss to the Saints this week would be a severe blow to their playoff hopes. 

San Francisco has a tougher road with a 1-3 record in the NFC West and now quarterback problems with QB Brock Purdy missing last week with an injury to his throwing shoulder. Combined with tough matchups against the Bills and Lions, and the 49ers may have dug themselves too big a hole to climb out of for once. 

Falcons Trying To Avoid Another Collapse

A few weeks ago it looked like the Falcons would cruise to an NFC South title. They were 6-3 and had swept the Buccaneers, who were 4-5 and in the middle of what would end up being a four-game losing streak. 

But the Falcons lost back-to-back games heading into their bye, including a completely non-competitive blowout at the hands (hooves?) of the Broncos. Going into this week, the Buccaneers are just a game-and-a-half back at 5-6 compared to the 6-5 Falcons. They have extra ground to make up because of the tiebreakers — Atlanta is already 4-1 in the NFC South — but they’re still in the mix. The combined record of Tampa Bay’s remaining opponents is 23-43 and the Bucs play just one team with a winning record. Atlanta’s remaining opponents are 30-36 and three have winning records. 

Obviously it would have been better for the Buccaneers to not have a losing record hitting this point in the season but they have as good a hand as could be hoped for to still be able to turn this around. 

AFC Longshots

There are still a few teams hanging around in the AFC wildcard race, including the Bengals who had sky-high preseason expectations and others like the Dolphins and Colts who felt like they came into 2024 with playoff-caliber squads. But not only do these three teams need to stay hot and keep winning, they need some of the teams ahead of them like the Ravens, Chargers and Broncos to slip. All three of those teams hold a two-game lead over the three hopeful upstarts, and it’s pretty close to must-win territory the rest of the way for all three of Miami, Cincinnati and Indianapolis. 

The good news is the schedule for the Chargers and Broncos in particular is tough and there are plenty of potential potholes, while the three longshots have favorable schedules in comparison. We’ll see how it shakes out over the next several weeks. 

Games Of The Week

Here are some of the most notable and relevant games from this upcoming week’s slate that will impact how the playoff picture unfolds. 

Cardinals at Vikings

Every game matters going forward for the NFC West in what would be a photo finish at this point. Arizona has an uphill battle to try and keep pace with a road game against a Vikings team that’s been a tough matchup on both sides of the ball this year. This would be a good time for a peak Kyler Murray game where the quarterback just takes matters into his own hands. Murray’s mobility might be one way the Cardinals have success beating Vikings DC Brian Flores and his unpredictable pressure schemes. 

For Minnesota, this is a tough challenge as they try to keep pace in the NFC North. They’re a game and a half back of the Lions in the NFC North with one loss head-to-head in a nailbiter earlier this season. They’ll get a chance to even things up in Week 18 and that could be a de facto division championship, but that requires taking care of business the next several weeks first. 

Steelers at Bengals

AFC North games are always must-watch TV. Pittsburgh is trying to hold off the Ravens for the lead in the division, while this is basically a must-win game for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s playoff hopes are already hanging on by a thread at around five percent depending on where you look for odds. A loss drops them to one percent or less — not mathematical elimination but a practical one. 

The Bengals are actually favorites according to the various sports books, which is partially due to having home field advantage. But there’s also been lingering optimism about Cincinnati due to how good they were expected to be preseason, and conversely, there’s been some lingering skepticism about the Steelers because of the style they play. 

Seahawks at Jets

Seahawks QB Geno Smith has already had his return to New York a couple of times but there’s still probably some extra juice for this game. It’s another important matchup for Seattle with a chance to build some cushion into a slight division lead if Arizona can’t knock off the Vikings. The Jets are an easier matchup on paper as they continue their freefall in a lost season but 1) this is a cross-country road trip for the Seahawks, 2) the Jets knocked off the Texans a few weeks ago, 3) nothing has come easy for the Seahawks this year. 

Eagles at Ravens

Cross-conference games matter a lot less in the standings but this is still a fun matchup between two of the better teams in the NFL. Both Philadelphia and Baltimore are arguably Super Bowl contenders and the regional aspect adds another layer. A loss isn’t killer for either squad but a win comes in handy as the Eagles chase the No. 1 seed and the Ravens chase the Steelers in the AFC North. 

Chargers at Falcons

Another cross-conference matchup between potential playoff teams, there’s more at stake for the loser here than the winner. If the Chargers lose, it will be their second straight defeat with games against the Chiefs, Bucs and Broncos on deck. They’re two games ahead of the field for a spot in the playoffs right now but a backslide could be coming if they’re not careful. 

If the Falcons lose, it will be their third straight and mean they’ll have gone more than a month without a victory. It would drop them to .500 and open the door even more for the Buccaneers to catch them. Atlanta has the benefit of being at home but it needs to get its offense untracked and faces a stiff challenge against a Chargers defense that has beat up on cupcakes but is still a good unit. 

Dolphins at Packers

Beating the Packers would make four straight wins for the Dolphins and even up their record at 6-6 following a 2-6 start to the season. A loss wouldn’t be fatal to their playoff hopes but a win would be a big, big boost. 

The Athletic gives the Dolphins a 38 percent chance to make the playoffs right now. They’re favored in four of their final six remaining games, including two games against the Jets and matchups against the 49ers and Browns. The independent odds linked at the top of this article give Miami a 42 percent chance at the playoffs with nine wins but nearly 90 percent at 10 wins. Stealing either this game or a visit to Houston in a few weeks would be massive. 

As for the Packers, the stakes are a lot lower, but they’re still jockeying for position in an outstanding NFC North and crowded NFC wildcard field. 

Rams at Saints

Both of these teams have losing records but this is still one of the more relevant games of the week when it comes to filling in the playoff picture. For the Saints, this is a borderline elimination game. A loss cuts their already slim playoff hopes down under one percent. A win keeps hope alive another week, though still in single digits. 

For the Rams, a win keeps them right in the thick of things in the NFC West with three more divisional games to play. In fact, a win plus losses by the Seahawks and Cardinals would leave all three teams tied at 6-6 atop the NFC West, and the Rams would have the best divisional record of the three at 2-1. Those three remaining division games mean the Rams also still have a say in how things play out, so a loss would be a setback but not insurmountable.