NFLTR Review: 2022 Cap Casualty Watchlist

By
Logan Ulrich
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Happy Friday! In this issue of NFLTR Review:

  • We go team-by-team looking at potential cap casualties this offseason
  • The nuclear-level fallout from two former Patriots in the news this week
  • The Kirk Cousins question

Potential Cap Casualties For Every Team

Nearly 94 percent of the NFL now has their eyes ahead on the offseason with 30 teams eliminated from Super Bowl contention. The Senior Bowl wraps up this weekend as one of the first tastes of draft season, and in between now and the draft we’ll have the scouting combine, franchise tags and multiple waves of free agency. 

Teams looking to set themselves up for 2022 are going through now and evaluating their roster, analyzing cap space, pending free agents and assessing any areas they need to trim the fat. There’s always a wave of cuts before free agency as teams discard players whose salaries don’t match what the team believes it will get from them in the coming season. 

It was particularly bad last year as the cap experienced a massive drop due to the after-effects of the pandemic. I was a little surprised going team by team at how efficient many teams have already been in trimming their roster of dead weight. The cuts won’t run as deep this offseason. 

There remain some big names in jeopardy, though, so let’s dive in: 

AFC North

Bengals: CB Trae Waynes ($10.8 million), C Trey Hopkins ($6 million)

Injuries tanked Waynes’ time in Cincinnati after being a big-ticket signing in 2020. Hopkins has been solid outside of this year when he clearly was limited by a torn ACL, but the Bengals have quite a bit of cap space to go after offensive line upgrades this offseason. They could still decide to keep Hopkins but it’s worth noting. 

Browns: WR Jarvis Landry ($14.8 million), C J.C. Tretter ($8.2 million), QB Case Keenum ($7.1 million)

Credit to Landry for playing through injuries in recent seasons. But the production doesn’t match the price tag and the savings are too big for the Browns to ignore. It feels like the veteran is ready for a fresh start elsewhere as well. Tretter is still a solid starter but the Browns have a lot invested financially on the offensive line and could look to go younger and cheaper at center. Keenum is paid like one of the top backups in the NFL, but isn’t really a long-term option. If the Browns want someone who can push Mayfield as an alternative, it could come at Keenum’s expense. 

Ravens: OT Alejandro Villanueva ($6 million), CB Tavon Young ($5.8 million), WR Miles Boykin ($2.5 million)

Baltimore will move on from Villanueva for performance and cost reasons. Young was solid but is on the expensive side for a slot corner, so perhaps the two sides come to some sort of compromise. The Ravens are suddenly deep at receiver, which might not leave room for Boykin. His salary is $2.54 million due to a raise from the Proven Performance Escalator program based on how much he played his first two seasons, but that might actually hurt his chances of making the roster. 

Steelers: LB Joe Schobert ($7.8 million), OT Zach Banner ($5 million), FB Derek Watt ($2.7 million)

Pittsburgh will take another swing at solving the middle linebacker position, maybe with some of the money saved from releasing Schobert. They could also work out a pay cut or something. Banner was expected to compete to start at right tackle but his rehab from a torn ACL dragged on longer than expected and Pittsburgh never really felt confident enough to insert him in the starting lineup in 2021. If he’s back as a starter, $5 million is cheap. That’s too much for a backup. Watt also doesn’t seem like he plays enough to justify his cap hit but Pittsburgh seems to value having him on the team, so we’ll see. 

NFC North

Bears: DT Eddie Goldman ($6.6 million), RB Tarik Cohen ($2.2 million), DT Angelo Blackson ($2.1 million), OLB Jeremiah Attaochu ($1.9 million)

Goldman was not much of a positive factor on the field for Chicago this season and might not fit the new defense. Cohen missed the entire season due to issues with his ACL rehab. Chicago could also go cheaper with Blackson and Attaochu. 

Lions: DE Trey Flowers ($10.3 million) OL Halapoulivaati Vaitai ($3.5 million)

Detroit will have to eat a sizable chunk of dead money to cut Flowers ($12.8 million) but they get a good amount of cap space in return. The Lions would also incur more dead money ($5.3 million) than they’d save with Vaitai, so it just depends on how badly they need space. If healthy, Vaitai is an okay starter at guard. 

Packers: OLB Za’Darius Smith ($15.2 million), OLB Preston Smith ($12.4 million), WR Randall Cobb ($6.7 million), DL Dean Lowry ($4 million), K Mason Crosby ($2.4 million)

Green Bay has more work to do than just about any team outside of New Orleans this offseason. There’s a good chance both Smith brothers are out the door, though perhaps the Packers work out some kind of extension with one or the other. Regardless of his relationship with the quarterback, there’s no way Cobb is back at his slated salary. Even Aaron Rodgers seems to understand that. Lowry had a strong season but the Packers are going to be pinched for space. If it comes down to him or RT Billy Turner, who had a borderline Pro Bowl season at a much more difficult position, it’s easier to find interior defensive line help. Crosby’s had a good run but the misses are becoming an issue. 

Vikings: LB Eric Kendricks ($7.5 million), DT Michael Pierce ($6.5 million), S Harrison Smith (5.8 million)

It’ll be interesting to see how the Vikings proceed this offseason, as they could either try and kick the can further down the road to contend or rip the band-aid off to get younger. Pierce and Smith are still capable defensive starters, but they’re on the wrong side of 30. Pierce is probably a goner no matter what, as there’s depth at defensive tackle and he hasn’t had the expected impact since signing as a free agent in 2020. 

AFC South

Colts: TE Jack Doyle ($5.4 million)

Once again, the Colts have a roster clean of bad contracts. The only potential cut worth noting is Doyle and there’s a strong chance he retires anyway. 

Jaguars: C Brandon Linder ($10 million), DT Malcom Brown ($3 million)

The Jaguars will not be starved for cap space, as they have one of the largest rollover amounts in the league. They also don’t have a ton of moves to make to free up space. Linder and Brown would add $13 million in space and give Jacksonville a chance to find upgrades. 

Texans: S Eric Murray ($5.5 million), OT Marcus Cannon ($5.2 million), K Ka’imi Fairbairn ($2.8 million), CB Terrance Mitchell ($3.1 million), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis ($3.1 million)

The Texans are in an interesting situation with not a lot of cap space and a lot of roster spots to fill. Trading Deshaun Watson would free a considerable amount of space, but expect them to also move on from guys like Murray, Cannon, Mitchell and Pierre-Louis in favor of cheaper veteran or rookie dart throws as they continue their rebuild. 

Titans: G Rodger Saffold ($10.5 million), LB Zach Cunningham ($10.5 million), CB Janoris Jenkins ($6.9 million), P Brett Kern ($3.2 million), OT Kendall Lamm ($3.2 million)

The Titans have a bit of work to do to get under the cap, let alone make additions to get over the hump in the AFC. Saffold is 34, so the time might be now to get cheaper and younger. Cunningham impressed and could be back, but absolutely not at that cap hit. Jenkins is also old, especially for a corner. Kern ranked toward the bottom of the league in punting average, while Lamm is a backup swing tackle and his salary might be a bit of a luxury. 

NFC South

Buccaneers: TE Cameron Brate ($5.3 million), P Bradley Pinion ($2.9 million), K Ryan Succop ($2.5 million)

Tampa Bay will have to reckon with some decisions they made last year to keep the band together, but they’d easily make that choice again. Pinion and Succop are good bets, as Pinion struggled and the Bucs stashed rookie K Jose Borregales on the practice squad all season. It’s hard to justify Brate coming back at his current cap figure but if Rob Gronkowski retires and O.J. Howard departs in free agency as expected, he’s the only tight end on the roster. 

Falcons: DT Tyeler Davison ($3.7 million), RB Mike Davis (2.5 million), CB Kendall Sheffield ($2.5 million)

Once again the Falcons enter the offseason with limited options to create cap space outside of restructures. Davison is the most obvious cut as they rebuild their front four. Davis is an option if they draft another back but once you factor in the cost of a replacement, the Falcons aren’t saving that much. If they lose Cordarrelle Patterson in free agency, they’ll probably keep Davis. Sheffield hasn’t been able to stick in a role, though he was hurt last year, and the PPE has driven up his base salary. 

Panthers: CB A.J. Bouye ($3.5 million), DL Morgan Fox ($3 million)

Carolina is in a weird position entering this offseason, with big needs at key positions like quarterback and offensive line plus a bevy of pending free agents, but without a ton of assets to work with. They don’t have a ton of cuts available either. They ought to be deep enough at corner that they can cut Bouye, depending on who they re-sign. Fox was a decent rotational piece but they could elect to go cheaper if they’re pinching pennies for other moves. 

Saints: CB Bradley Roby ($9.4 million), S Malcolm Jenkins ($3.8 million), DE Tanoh Kpassagnon ($2.3 million), RB Mark Ingram ($2.3 million), S J.T. Gray ($2.1 million)

The bulk of the work the Saints will do to get under the cap will probably involve restructures. There are a few cuts they can make, though. Roby never really found a role despite the Saints giving up a third-round pick and $9.4 million in savings is a lot. Jenkins is still a solid starter but perhaps New Orleans wants to be a year ahead of any decline. Gray is an outstanding special teamer, but that’s a bit of a luxury. Kpassagnon is depth at best and while Ingram is solid, running back is a place that’s easier to go cheap. 

AFC East

Bills: C Mitch Morse ($8.5 million), OL Daryl Williams ($6.3 million), WR Cole Beasley ($6.1 million), LB A.J. Klein ($5.1 million), DT Star Lotulelei ($4 million), OL Jon Feliciano ($3.3 million), LB Tyler Matakevich ($2.5 million)

Buffalo is expected to retool its offensive line after vacillating between different schemes and philosophies in past seasons. That could dictate decisions on Morse, Williams and Feliciano. Bills GM Brandon Beane has already said Beasley will be back, but that’s a lot of potential savings and Buffalo is deep at receiver. Klein is a third linebacker, Lotuelelei a nose tackle and Matakevich a special teamer. Those should be relatively easy roles to fill cheaper, though Lotulelei was playing really well before coming down with COVID-19. 

Dolphins: S Eric Rowe ($4.5 million), DT Adam Butler ($4.1 million), OL Jesse Davis ($3.6 million), S Clayton Fejedelem ($2.7 million), WR Allen Hurns ($2.5 million), TE Cethan Carter ($2.5 million), 

Miami is projected to have the most cap space in the league this offseason, so they’re not hurting for space. They could clear even more, though, as none of these players are irreplaceable. Rowe, Butler and Davis are all solid role players with experience, but either have more ties to the old coaching staff or can be upgraded from. 

Jets: C Connor McGovern ($9 million), G Greg Van Roten ($3.5 million), TE Ryan Griffin ($3 million)

The Jets also aren’t hurting for cap space, so they don’t need to release McGovern. He’s probably not the most effective use of $9 million but he’s solid and continuity on the offensive line is important. Van Roten and Griffin would be cut candidates even if New York wasn’t saving money due to performance. 

Patriots: G Shaq Mason ($7.1 million), WR Nelson Agholor ($5 million), LB Kyle Van Noy ($5 million), DT Davon Godchaux ($5 million), DL Henry Anderson ($2.6 million)

After their spending spree last offseason, the Patriots are looking a lot more limited for 2022. They still have work to do, though, including major pending free agents like CB J.C. Jackson and a need for a top-flight No. 1 receiver for budding QB Mac Jones. Mason is a good starter but he’s a guard and New England’s depth at the position relegated 2020 rookie standout Michael Onwenu to the bench. The Patriots would eat twice as much dead money as they’d save by cutting Agholor but his impact was minimal last season. Van Noy and Godchaux are solid starters but it’s not completely out of the question that New England decides that money is better allocated elsewhere. Anderson missed most of the season with an injury. 

NFC East

Commanders: G Ereck Flowers ($10 million), S Landon Collins ($6.4 million)

Flowers had a solid season but $10 million in savings is hard to ignore, especially at a position like guard. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Washington try and keep its strengths strong on the offensive line. Collins is clearly on his way out as the coaching staff has moved him to linebacker in an effort to help him fit the system. 

Cowboys: WR Amari Cooper ($16 million), CB Anthony Brown ($5 million), OL Connor McGovern ($2.5 million)

There’s a reason Cooper’s contract keeps coming up. There are minimal guarantees and $16 million is a huge chunk of change to save, especially considering Dallas is stretched for space. The entire offense underachieved, so it’s not just Cooper. He’s undoubtedly a good player but he’s being paid like a great one and didn’t produce that way in 2021. The Cowboys could potentially find a trade partner rather than cutting him outright. Other options to save space include Brown, who is an average starter. That actually has value at a position like cornerback but there are younger options the Cowboys have invested draft capital in. McGovern is another PPE situation, though Dallas could take that decision into training camp. 

Eagles: 

No one. Seriously. Most of the cuts Philadelphia can make would actually hurt their cap as they continue reorienting the roster construction in their rebuild. The good news is they’re in decent shape in terms of 2022 cap space already. 

Giants: CB James Bradberry ($12.1 million), LB Blake Martinez ($8.5 million), TE Kyle Rudolph ($5 million), WR Sterling Shepard ($4.5 million), P Riley Dixon ($2.8 million), OL Nick Gates ($2.1 million)

The Giants will need to make some tough cuts, as even though they have a QB on a rookie deal, they have little cap space. New York could need the salary more than it needs any contributions from Martinez or Rudolph despite being relatively recent high-profile signings. The same might be true for Bradberry even though he’s still a competent No. 1 corner. Dixon is an easy cut given his struggles in 2021 and Gates is dealing with a severe injury. 

AFC West

Broncos: P Sam Martin ($2.2 million)

Denver’s roster is remarkably clean and the Broncos are also toward the top of the league in projected 2022 cap space. If there is a cut to be made, it might be at punter, where there’s room to upgrade. 

Chargers: OT Bryan Bulaga ($10.75 million)

Bulaga hasn’t been able to stay healthy since signing in Los Angeles two years ago. Cutting him is a pretty obvious move. The Chargers are well-positioned in terms of cap space otherwise and might be a team to watch to be surprisingly aggressive to capitalize on Justin Herbert’s rookie contract window. 

Chiefs: DE Frank Clark ($12.7 million), LB Anthony Hitchens ($8.4 million), WR Mecole Hardman ($3.9 million)

Kansas City has a tough decision with Clark this offseason. When he’s on, he’s an excellent pass rusher, but injuries have held him back the past couple of seasons. Are the Chiefs better off cutting bait and trying to find a more reliable source of pass rush? There are young linebackers that make Hitchens expendable. And while Hardman has found more of a niche in the offense, you consistently get the sense Kansas City wants a more reliable third option in the passing game. They could save nearly $4 million, which makes this a situation worth monitoring. 

Raiders: G Denzelle Good ($4.1 million), LB Nick Kwiatkoski ($3.2 million), DE Carl Nassib ($3 million), RB Kenyan Drake ($2.7 million)

Getting out from under some of the deals signed by Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock will take time. Las Vegas can move on from all four of these players with decent savings, though it would add a combined $17 million in dead money. Also keep an eye on LB Cory Littleton as a June 1 cut, as that would open up $11 million in cap space after that date. 

NFC West

49ers: DE Samson Ebukam ($6.5 million), DE Dee Ford ($2 million, $7 million if June 1)

The 49ers’ big savings will come when they trade QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Until they do that, they’re rather limited, so there’s a potential downside to holding out in the hopes of getting a better offer. Ford is probably designated as a June 1 cut, which means the savings don’t hit the books until then. Ebukam has been a solid rotational pass rusher but there are other options on the roster and $6.5 million for 4.5 sacks isn’t the best exchange rate. 

Cardinals: G Justin Pugh ($9.8 million), LB Jordan Hicks ($6.5 million), OLB Devon Kennard ($4.8 million), K Matt Prater ($3.5 million)

Arizona will have to walk a bit of a tightrope to keep their contending window open. Pugh and Hicks have been solid veterans but there are younger, cheaper options the Cardinals drafted with the intention of turning things over. It might be time. Kennard will be interesting, as he’s a decent rotational pass rusher. It’s a tough time to be a mid-level veteran, though. As for Prater, he missed seven kicks in 2021. 

Rams: LT Andrew Whitworth ($15.5 million), DT A’Shawn Robinson ($5.5 million), TE Tyler Higbee ($5.2 million)

“Stars and scrubs” is a little bit simplistic to describe the Rams’ roster-building strategy. But they have shown they will make bold moves to retain high-priced players they view as key, and OLB Von Miller and WR Odell Beckham seem to fall in that category. Robinson and Higbee are solid players but the Rams can find cheaper options to fill the roles of run-stuffer and check-down tight end. Whitworth is still playing at a high level, especially considering his age. But $15.5 million is a lot of savings and it’s worth noting how well Joseph Noteboom performed in the playoff game Whitworth missed. 

Seahawks: LB Bobby Wagner ($16.6 million), K Jason Myers ($4 million), FB Nick Bellore ($2.1 million)

The Seahawks don’t really use a fullback and Myers hasn’t been as reliable as you’d like a kicker to be at that salary. However, Seattle is projected to have enough cap space that those are corners they might not have to cut. The bigger question is what to do with Wagner’s contract. He’s entering the final year of his deal and will be 32. There were a few signs of aging this past year but he still made the Pro Bowl. There’s a lot of incentive for the two sides to work out a short extension. That makes more sense than an outright release, but that possibility can’t be completely dismissed. 

This Week In Football

  • Somehow Tom Brady retired this week and it wasn’t the biggest story in football. That title is currently held by former Dolphins HC Brian Flores, who announced on Tuesday he is suing the NFL, Dolphins, Giants and Broncos alleging discrimination in hiring practices. The crux of Flores’ lawsuit is a text message from Patriots HC Bill Belichick which seemed to congratulate him on being the Giants’ top pick for their head coaching job. However, Belichick mistakenly sent it to Flores instead of his intended recipient, Brian Daboll. Flores also details what he felt was a sham interview by the Broncos in 2019, as well as allegations that the beginning of the end for him in Miami happened when he refused to take $100,000 per loss from owner Stephen Ross to tank.
  • There are massive implications on two levels. First, Flores’ goal is to reform the NFL’s terrible track record on diverse hiring, especially at the head coaching level. He’s got enough receipts, with potentially other coaches willing to join, to get the conversation started. The fact that it’s all too likely the NFL ends this coaching cycle with no Black or minority candidates hired despite having nine openings — the most since 2009 — will also put pressure on the league to act. Flores is willing to become another Colin Kaepernick-like figure and never coach again if it means making real change in this area. 
  • The second layer is the tanking allegations against Ross and the Dolphins. Incentivizing losses goes beyond simply building a team with the long-term prioritized over short-term competitiveness. If those are proven, and Flores says he has witnesses and documentation, that has huge implications. It would be deeply damaging to the integrity of the game and would lead to severe repercussions for the Dolphins, including fines and stripped draft picks at a minimum. If it leads to federal fraud charges, which isn’t out of the question given how much the stakes are raised by the NFL’s embrace of gambling, it could lead to Ross’ ouster as owner. The Dolphins also aren’t the only team implicated, former Browns HC Hue Jackson says the Browns did something similar while he was with the team. 
  • As for Brady, he officially confirmed what had been rumored for over a week and announced he is finally ending his career after 22 incredible seasons. There is a lot that has been and could be said about Brady. His story defies description at times. What sticks out to me is, though, is that in a game that invites debate about legacy and importance, Brady left no doubt about his status as the greatest football player of all time, crushing the competition in a way that means it will be decades before anyone could even conceivably come close to challenging his legacy. He’s been a fixture my entire football-watching life, someone I’ve loved to hate watch. But I’m sad to see him go. 
  • The coaching cycle spins slowly on, and it looks like we won’t have answers on all of the vacancies until next week. The Raiders officially hired Patriots OC Josh McDaniels after things came together quickly following the interview. The Giants made the hire of Bills OC Brian Daboll official at the end of last week as well. With the other teams, there was very little movement. 
  • The exception is the Vikings, who proceeded through second interviews with finalists this week and appear to have settled on Rams OC Kevin O’Connell as their pick. The deal cannot be finalized until after the Super Bowl, however. Their decision was not without drama, however, as heading into Wednesday it looked like Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh was about to make his return to the NFL. His flirtations with teams have been an open secret, and when he left on National Signing Day to interview in person with the Vikings, many people logically figured that was a sure sign he was a goner — including Harbaugh. However, the Vikings elected to go in a different direction, and Harbaugh told the administration he is returning to Michigan, presumably to sign the extension that’s been on the table for weeks. 
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars’ head coaching search has had more twists than a Colombian telenovela. Buccaneers OC Byron Leftwich, the presumed favorite last week to get the job, has taken his name out of the running. It’s an awful look for Jacksonville, which has now been left high and dry by a number of finalists, probably because of the continued presence of GM Trent Baalke. That’s why the team has interviewed former Vikings GM Rick Spielman for a senior front office position, one that’s not general manager but that would presumably be above Baalke in the organizational hierarchy, to try and alleviate concerns. The team has also had a second interview with former Eagles HC Doug Pederson, who at this point is almost the finalist for the job by default (UPDATE: Jacksonville is expected to hire Pederson as their next head coach). 
  • Neither the 49ers nor QB Jimmy Garoppolo will come right out and say that the veteran will be traded this offseason. That would hurt their leverage. But all signs point in that direction, with Garoppolo, GM John Lynch and HC Kyle Shanahan all talking about his time in San Francisco in the past tense. Garoppolo added the team is working with him on finding a trade destination, as he wants to go to a team that is trying to win. In league circles, the feeling seems to be that the Broncos, Buccaneers and Steelers make a lot of sense as a landing spot. 
  • The Denver Broncos are nearing the end of a years-long saga over who will ultimately own the team following the death of Pat Bowlen in 2019, though he had relinquished control of the team to a trust in 2014. They announced the franchise will be put up for sale and the process is expected to conclude sometime in 2022. The sale is expected to be quite lucrative, potentially more than $4 billion. That would smash the record for an American sports franchise. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

Infonugget: I did this same cap cut preview last year. There were 121 names on the list. This year I could come up with only 103…

With Baalke and Harbaugh back to being prominent figures in the news this week, this is a good refresher by Tim Kawakami of what happened between the two in San Francisco that neither has really been able to shake…

I can’t even…

Figuring out how to properly rate Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is a challenge. On one hand, his counting stats suggest he should be a clear top-10 quarterback. His pedestrian win-loss record and lack of playoff success suggests otherwise. The Athletic’s Arif Hasan has a terrific, nuanced, well worth the price of admission take on how to answer that question…

Counterpoint…

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1489395335592128514?s=20&t=eyLY_yy-E74FXRG6qpCBRQ

More fun with Cousins…

Not as nuanced as Arif’s dissertation but it just feels right…

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