NFLTR Review: 32 Questions For 32 Teams: Part II

By
Logan Ulrich
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The NFL offseason is kicking into gear and so are we! In this issue of NFLTR Review:

  • Finishing up our biggest questions for all 32 teams in 2022
  • The offseason’s biggest domino we’re all waiting on
  • What big-picture trends can we take from 2021? 

32 Questions For 32 Teams: Part II

We continue our series looking at the biggest question for every team in the league, the first half of which can be found here. Included is what we were asking about these teams at this time last year, which can be quite illuminating…

Chargers

2021: What does Herbert’s potential look like in Year 2?

2022: What are Brandon Staley’s coaching chops really like? 

Justin Herbert asserted himself as one of the most talented and high-ceiling quarterbacks in the league in 2021. But it always seems like there’s something with the Chargers, and after briefly holding the top spot in the AFC, they tumbled down the stretch and eventually missed the playoffs thanks to an upset loss to the 4-13 Texans and a loss in what amounted to a play-in game against the Raiders in the regular-season finale. 

Among the culprits in both losses was a shaky run defense, and the defense as a whole let the Chargers down in 2021 despite that supposedly being Staley’s area of expertise. Perhaps personnel deficiencies were to blame but when a team as talented as the Chargers underperforms, it’s fair to question the coach, even if said coach was a rookie. Staley seems sharp and charismatic, so overall there are reasons to be optimistic. The shine wears off quickly in the NFL, though.  

Saints

2021: What do they look like without Brees?

2022: Does this team regress even further without Sean Payton?

This past season was the first since 2006 without Drew Brees and the Saints clearly missed him. Losing Jameis Winston to a torn ACL obviously hurt but the offense was different even before they were forced to rely on Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill and Ian Book. Winston averaged just 23 pass attempts a game, while Brees never dipped below 32 even in his final two seasons when his arms strength waned. 

Payton was arguably just as important to the team’s success as Brees, so it feels unrealistic to think there’s going to be no drop-off just by maintaining most of the current coaching staff. New HC Dennis Allen is going to have to be an excellent coach in his own right to stave off the regression, and his last gig with the Raiders didn’t exactly go well. 

Eagles

2021: What does the team look like by June?

2022: What is Jalen Hurts’ ceiling? 

The Eagles were clearly hitting the reset button last year, firing their Super Bowl-winning head coach and trading away their former franchise quarterback and replacing both with far less-heralded options. The thing is, the results were a lot better. The Eagles weren’t a good team but they were competitive enough to sneak into the playoff field. And Hurts played well enough to probably keep the job in 2022 barring a clear superstar shaking free. 

Now it’s about taking another step forward. Hurts improved his completion percentage by nearly 10 points from his rookie year to his second season. He also made massive strides in development in college. He’s shown he’s a dynamic running threat and good enough to be a starter in the NFL. The bar is just higher these days. Can Hurts keep growing into a potential franchise quarterback? That’s the question for Philadelphia in 2022. 

Steelers

2021: How much gas does this team have left?

2022: Who succeeds Ben Roethlisberger? 

Roethlisberger’s last dance in Pittsburgh ended with a thump in the first round of the playoffs, which frankly is about what the ceiling for the Steelers was in 2021 given the litany of weaknesses on the roster. Now it’s on to the next era and answering this question. Who is the next Steelers starting quarterback?

For Week 1, there’s a decent chance it’s Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh has talked him up relentlessly even if the on-field results from his starting stint in 2019 and his lone appearance in 2021 were underwhelming. He knows the system and brings familiarity, though. For an organization as traditional as Pittsburgh, it makes sense, at least until a rookie is deemed ready enough to unseat him. That’s my guess for how this will go at any rate. 

Patriots

2021: How will Belichick rebuild?

2022: What’s next for Mac Jones? 

Patriots HC Bill Belichick’s biggest strength is his ability to adapt and often to adapt before the rest of the league does. Up until last season, New England had traditionally been a team that bypassed the first wave of free agency and hunted for bargains. But needing a quick infusion of talent that was ready to play immediately, Belichick broke out the credit card and handed out more guaranteed cash in free agency than any team ever. 

That got New England back into the playoff mix in the AFC but they were obviously outclassed in a 47-17 loss to the Bills in the postseason. The roster still needs work but ultimately the NFL is dominated by elite quarterback play. Jones had a strong rookie season but what sort of potential is there still for him to unlock? Can his accuracy and mental acumen overcome any physical limitations? It will be fascinating to find out in 2022. 

Raiders

2021: Is there another leap coming under Gruden or is this it?

2022: Has Josh McDaniels learned his lessons? 

The Raiders got over a hump in 2021 by making the playoffs and they did it without Jon Gruden, who resigned in early October after problematic emails from his past came to light. It was an achievement considering everything the Raiders dealt with last season but a first-round playoff exit showed changes still needed to be made. Enter McDaniels. 

The last time McDaniels ran an NFL team, it ended in disaster. Since then, there’s been quite a lot said and done to try and rehab his image. McDaniels talked a good game in his introductory press conference about learning from mistakes he made when he was a younger coach. Now it’s time to see if he’s sincere. 

Cardinals

2021: Can Kliff and Kyler take the next step? 

2022: Is something rotting in Phoenix? 

Through the first three months of the season, the Cardinals looked like they might be 2021’s breakout team. Arizona was the last team to lose its first game, starting the season 7-0. They weathered an injury to Kyler Murray and were 9-2 coming into December. Then the wheels came off. 

The Cardinals finished the season 2-6, including one loss to the Lions and an embarrassing blowout at the hands of the Rams in the wildcard round. Beyond it marking yet another late-season collapse for HC Kliff Kingsbury, it also appeared to break something behind the scenes. The vibes between Murray and the team have been bad and it’s possible they could bleed into the 2022 season. The question is if it’s a bump in the road or a precursor to a breakup. Arizona has been a team on the rise for the past few seasons but the future suddenly feels tenuous. 

Cowboys

2021: Will they extend Prescott?

2022: How do the Cowboys fix their consistent underachieving? 

The Cowboys were able to work out an extension with Dak Prescott that paid him like one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. To start the season, he was playing well enough to justify it. Then he hurt his calf and when he came back, things just weren’t as easy for the Cowboys on offense as they should have been. This team had the talent to compete for a Super Bowl, but instead they were toppled in the wildcard round by the 49ers, living down to the underachiever label they’ve been dogged by for the last couple of decades. 

Dallas should still have a talented group in 2022 but there’s a persistent feeling that 2021 was a wasted opportunity. It’s worth noting Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy was criticized for leading teams that underachieved in Green Bay (just one Super Bowl in 13 seasons with Hall of Fame quarterbacks). That plus high expectations in general in Dallas is why he’ll enter the 2022 season with questions about his job security. 

Bills

2021: How can they beat the Chiefs?

2022: See above

The Bills did crack the code to beating Kansas City — in the regular season. Unfortunately, their postseason effort came up just short despite leaving the Chiefs and QB Patrick Mahomes just 13 seconds in regulation to tie. So once again, Buffalo enters the offseason measuring itself against the standard the Chiefs set. 

There was a midseason lull but Buffalo still was one of the best teams in the NFL by the end of last season. Bills QB Josh Allen seemed to take another step forward and the defense continues to be steady under the oversight of HC Sean McDermott. There’s some natural attrition to take care of but the Bills should once again be one of the best teams in football. 

Titans

2021: Will the brain drain catch up with them?

2022: What do they need to do to go from good to great? 

The Titans shrugged off quite a bit of attrition, including injuries and not just the loss of OC Arthur Smith to the Falcons, to finish with the AFC’s No. 1 seed. It was clear they were a flawed team, however, which is why HC Mike Vrabel earned coach of the year honors for getting as much out of the group as he did. 

Going forward, it’s worth asking if the Titans can win the Super Bowl as presently constructed. They’ve been eliminated from the playoffs the past three years by Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. They have regular-season wins against that same group, subtracting Burrow and adding Allen, so it’s not like they’re far off in a loaded AFC. Still, can Ryan Tannehill elevate the team enough when the stakes are highest in the postseason? The answer has been no so far, but Tennessee is going to try again with Tannehill in 2022. If they falter yet again, the Titans could be looking for an upgrade. 

Buccaneers

2021: Can they keep Brady’s supporting cast strong?

2022: What do they do at quarterback? 

Tampa Bay brought back darn near everyone from their Super Bowl-winning squad, but didn’t catch as many injury breaks in 2021. The final championship tally ends as one in two seasons following Tom Brady’s surprising retirement (yes he was 44, but he was an MVP candidate and had talked for years about playing until he was 45). Now the Bucs have to get back on the quarterback wheel. They have an excellent roster, which will certainly help if any big names are available. There’s no way Blaine Gabbert gets the keys to this Ferrari, though, right? 

Packers

2021: Can they get this team over the hump with their cap situation?

2022: Can they keep enough around Aaron Rodgers to contend? 

Green Bay still built a roster that was good enough to contend for a Super Bowl despite cap challenges in 2021. If Rodgers is back — and right now that appears to be where the wind is blowing, though who knows for sure — the Packers will face that same question. The cap is higher this year, but Green Bay has more pending free agents and higher-stakes decisions. If Rodgers and WR Davante Adams both end up signing market-resetting extensions, GM Brian Gutekunst will have to get creative to free up enough space to address other needs, like edge rusher, linebacker and wide receiver. 

49ers

2021: Is Garoppolo the future?

2022: How does the Trey Lance era begin? 

Last year’s question was answered resoundingly when San Francisco made a massive leap up in the draft for the No. 3 overall pick that ended up being Lance. The 49ers maintained they wanted to keep Garoppolo for a year despite their investment to give Lance, who has only played one year of Division II college football, time to learn and allow San Francisco to compete with a roster they felt strongly about. That’s exactly how it played out despite a lot of scoffing and speculation to the contrary.

Listening to Garoppolo, 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan, GM John Lynch and others now, it’s pretty clear the plan is to make the shift to Lance this offseason. Remember that when headlines say differently this offseason, as is bound to happen. The last time a quarterback with this kind of physical talent operated a Shanahan offense was Robert Griffin III in Washington. That obviously didn’t end well but it illustrates the peak that’s possible. The little bit of Lance we saw in 2021 displayed that kind of talent, now he has to put it together. 

Chiefs

2021: Can they get the dynasty back on track?

2022: How will the Chiefs build around Patrick Mahomes now that his cap hits have begun to rise? 

The Chiefs made it to the AFC championship for the fourth straight season this past season. Only six other teams have a streak of title game appearances that long. 

Team Years CC Record
Super Bowl wins
Patriots 2011-2018 (8) 5-3 3
Raiders 1973-1977 (5) 1-4 1
Cowboys 1970-1973 (4) 2-2 2
Bills 1990-1993 (4) 4-0 0
Cowboys 1992-1995 (4) 3-1 3
Eagles 2001-2004 (4) 1-3 0
Chiefs* 2018-2021 (4) 2-2 1

*Active streak

Kansas City is already in rare air with this kind of success. But coming away with just one Super Bowl probably isn’t what they or the fans expected. The Patriots destroyed the curve we grade NFL dynasties on and that’s the goal for the Chiefs, realistic or not. 

As you can see, getting beyond four straight title games is hard. Only two teams have ever done it. The Chiefs will have to deal with an AFC that is absolutely stacked in terms of quarterback play and most of them are in their 20s still, meaning they’ll be a problem for years to come. Mahomes cap hits also start to rise starting in 2022, and while the Chiefs will restructure, it’s still a factor in team building. If they can keep their momentum up despite these factors, they absolutely can still challenge New England’s place in NFL history. 

Bengals

2021: Can they protect Burrow?

2022: See above. 

It’s a testament to Bengals QB Joe Burrow that he’s accomplished so much when his protection has been so faulty for his first two seasons. He’s had plenty of opportunities to show his preternatural ability to manage pressure, but the Super Bowl showed the limitations of that. The Bengals absolutely can make it back to that stage again, they just have to put a little less on Burrow’s shoulders. The good news for them is that they have plenty of resources to do so. There should be no excuse. 

Rams

2021: Will their bet on Stafford pay off

2022: How much of the gang can they keep together? 

After trading for OLB Von Miller and signing WR Odell Beckham on top of the blockbuster offseason trade for QB Matthew Stafford, the Rams Twitter posted a meme leaning into the “all-in” narrative. They lost their next three games, but they won the big one at the end that mattered. That alone makes their methods unquestionably a success. 

Can they do it again? They won’t have Beckham for most of the season and Miller is a pending free agent. Stafford needs a new deal too. There’s the natural attrition to the roster and other personnel that comes with each passing season in the NFL and the Rams’ strategy of mortgaging so much into a few stud players sometimes feels like a house of cards waiting to collapse. Can it hold together long enough for another Super Bowl, or even two? 

This Week In Football

  • If you’ve been thinking this offseason has been dragging along a bit, you’re not wrong. By this time last year, three big-name quarterbacks had already been traded and there was serious speculation about three others. This year, everyone in the league is waiting to see how the big domino in Green Bay falls, as the future of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers remains up in the air, though perhaps not for much longer. No one except maybe Rodgers knows what his final decision will be. Most would be surprised if he retired but the signs do seem to be indicating a return to Green Bay is imminent. The Packers hired 68-year-old QB coach Tom Clements out of retirement, and some reporters have astutely pointed out Clements probably isn’t giving up his time fishing, golfing or playing with grandkids to coach just Jordan Love. Rodgers acknowledged he had input in the hire as well. The Packers have also started clearing cap space for 2022 and if Rodgers confirms he’s on board, a new, potentially record-breaking deal will be next for him. 
  • Speaking of Love, in his state of the Packers address this week, GM Brian Gutekunst said it was “very doubtful” he would take trade calls on Love. This is notable because if Rodgers comes back, it will presumably be on a contract that runs through the duration of Love’s rookie deal. Green Bay’s decision to trade up for Love in the first round in 2020 was the genesis for the current uncertainty between the team and Rodgers, so it’s relevant what their vision is for him going forward. Stay tuned. 
  • If you’re a Panthers fan this offseason, brace to be linked to just about every single quarterback who could possibly be available. This past week it was reported they reached out to the Vikings to inquire about Kirk Cousins (and were rebuffed). They also reportedly remain interested in Texans QB Deshaun Watson, and perhaps might be more willing than other teams to overlook the baggage he comes with. Panthers HC Matt Rhule is obviously on the hot seat and owner David Tepper‘s defining characteristic in charge so far is his obsession with finding a star quarterback, so it’s easy to see the team being desperate this offseason. 
  • I did not expect Brian Flores to have a job in the NFL for a long, long time. So kudos to the Pittsburgh Steelers for hiring Flores to their defensive staff in a senior advisory role and as a linebackers coach. The Steelers get the NFL’s most over-qualified LB coach and this move will make them better, which is a nice bonus to doing the right thing. 
  • After a period of uncertainty, the Chiefs and OC Eric Bieniemy agreed to another one-year deal for him to return as the play-caller for Kansas City in 2022. It sounds like the veteran coach heavily weighed his options this offseason after another disappointing coaching cycle that ended without him having a head coaching job. It’s not clear if he had anything better on the table, though, and for the Chiefs at least it’s a huge win to avoid more of a brain drain on the staff after losing QB coach Mike Kafka.

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

I find it fascinating to zoom out and look at the big picture trends of how the league changes from year to year. I devoted a major chunk of a column last year to the topic, including the expanding Shanahan coaching tree. Here are some trends that emerged in 2021…

Defensive coordinators came up with some answers for the high-powered quarterbacks and offenses like the Chiefs and Mahomes that had been virtually unstoppable. Mahomes’ slump was the most high profile but Allen, Prescott, Herbert and others all had lulls, too. The blueprint …

  • Show two-high coverage pre-snap to take away the deep ball, even if you don’t always stay in it once the play starts. Or rotate into it post-snap. Changing the picture once bodies are flying makes it harder on the QB to figure out where they have to go with the ball
  • Two-high has the added benefit of inviting the offense to run into a lighter box, which takes the ball out of the star QB’s hand. That’s generally a win for the defense
  • Never blitz. The new QB generation is too good at seeing it or scrambling away and hitting the weak point left in your coverage 
  • Instead, drop bodies into passing lanes, find other ways to stress offense’s protection calls and don’t get beat deep. Make them throw underneath when they don’t really want to

Essentially, defenses dared these star quarterbacks used to putting up video game numbers to slow down and matriculate the ball down the field, betting they didn’t have the patience or the discipline to do so. And they were right — for a chunk of the season…

The countermove, which teams like the Chiefs and Bills started to tap into later in the season, is to play with more precision. Take those underneath throws and make the defense uneasy about bleeding yards. Renew the emphasis on avoiding penalties, drops and any self-inflicted errors. Run the ball more efficiently to get the defense out of two-high looks, then capitalize on shot plays when you get them. Basically, be able and willing to beat the defensive with a thousand small cuts rather than the knockout blow…

Note the fourth-down attempts line. This past season was the high-water mark for fourth-down attempts and the trend since the turn of the century is clear. Teams are becoming more and more aggressive, fueled by analytics research that shows being aggressive on fourth down can provide an edge. The Lions set an NFL record for fourth-down attempts in 2021 and Chargers HC Brandon Staley had a number of high-profile fourth-down decisions, some of which worked, some of which didn’t. Expect some fluctuation in the coming years but it’s clear that fourth-down aggressiveness is not going away…

Historically, gadget players — players who can play something other than their listed position — have been more fun than functional. It’s a challenge for offenses to carve out consistent roles for these players who don’t neatly fit into a box as a receiver or running back or tight end. But in 2021 the NFL took another big step toward having legitimately positionless players, specifically with the performances of Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson and 49ers WR Deebo Samuel…

Stats Patterson Samuel
Attempts 153 59
Rush yards 618 365
Rush TDs 6 8
Targets 69 121
Receptions 52 77
Receiving Yard 548 1405
Receiving TDs 5 6
Backfield Snaps* 295 116
Wideout Snaps* 162 830

*Courtesy of PFF

Samuel became San Francisco’s change of pace back late in the year and excelled with bread and butter run plays, not gimmicks. He’s one of the hardest players in football to tackle and that’s reflected in the staggering nearly 10-yard difference between his ADOT of 8.4 and his yards per catch of 18.2…

Patterson, meanwhile, languished for nine years since being drafted back in 2013, not polished enough to play full-time receiver and with a body type too unusual for teams to trust as a running back. Finally he landed with a coaching staff that figured out what to do with him and it resulted in a breakout…

Naturally, this will send teams in hunt of their own chess pieces to move around on offense. It is a copycat league after all. It’s all too easy to see teams getting caught up in the flash and overlooking either Samuel or Patterson’s unique talents or the smart, diligent efforts of Atlanta and San Francisco’s coaching staff. History suggests fielding an effective gadget player is still easier said than done…

Speed kills in the modern NFL, but big backs also seem to be making a little bit of a comeback. These aren’t your dad’s three yards and a cloud of dust plodders. Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb can all lower the boom but they also have the speed to break away from a defense tired of getting punished. Najee Harris, Leonard Fournette and James Conner have the versatility in the passing game in addition to the power to run teams out of those two-high shells. Keep an eye out on guys like AJ Dillon and Javonte Williams, too…

https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/1494042701997694981?s=20&t=W81Quch5eUTeQhtPBfV2Fw

Like any team that tries an aggressive and new team-building strategy, the Rams had their fair share of detractors after they traded yet more first-round picks to dump Goff and bring in Stafford. Now it’s worked to the tune of a Super Bowl. Los Angeles might be on to something when it comes to the value of draft picks, which are treated by most teams like hyper-precious commodities. And it’s true, hitting on draft picks is the most efficient way to build a team given the value of getting contributors, starters and especially stars on a cheap rookie deal. But the actual hit rate on players selected with those picks is much, much smaller. Teams would kill for a 50 percent hit rate…

On the flip side, trading picks for veteran players in theory should have a higher hit rate because they’ve already proven themselves at the NFL level, especially if you’re trading picks away that end up late in the round. The onus is still on the team to evaluate the player they’re getting correctly, though. An example of doing this the wrong way was the Seahawks trading two first-round picks for a safety whose best trait was blitzing…

There’s been plenty of speculation about Brady’s retirement really being a ploy to finally land with the favorite team of his childhood: the 49ers. Here’s why I would be shocked: 

  • I truly buy that Brady is ready to dedicate his time to his family and stop missing out on all the time with them he sacrificed to the demands of an NFL schedule. 
  • Staying on the East Coast was important to him for that reason when he was a free agent, so now he’s going to go out west? 
  • San Francisco invested a ton of resources in Lance with the goal of getting him ready to play this year. The knock on him is inexperience, but the only way to fix that is to play. 
  • In addition to trading away everything they did for Lance, they’re going to trade away more assets to the Bucs for Brady now? 
  • Not just that, but San Francisco is going to spend this entire offseason scheming and building an offense around Lance’s unique, dual-threat skillset. That’s not an offense Brady fits into. 
  • Shanahan and Lynch already passed on Brady once to stick with Garoppolo.

Look, if Brady really has his heart set on playing for his boyhood team, the 49ers will have to consider it given it would make them Super Bowl contenders. The possibility can’t be outright dismissed. I just think it’s a 1 percent chance at best…

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