NFLTR Review: 32 Takeaways From The First Round Of The 2023 NFL Draft

By
Logan Ulrich
-

There may have only been 31 picks this year, but we don’t skimp at NFLTR. In this issue:

  • 32 takeaways from a first round that was just as wild as people expected
  • Winners, losers, grades, nuggets, collateral damage & much more

First-Round Takeaways

There’s not a lot that gets me more excited than the arrival of the NFL draft. The list probably includes Christmas and the start of the season, and even that’s debatable some years. This year especially there was a lot of intrigue, as I cannot remember a draft where both the NFL and the public entered with equally little clue as to what would happen. 

Part of what I love so much about the draft is teams can’t lie. Teams lie all the time, but the two times they’re the most honest are when they’re spending money and when they’re using draft picks — and they’re far more hesitant to part with picks than cash. Every spring the draft brings a whole new wave of information to dissect, as well as a fresh crop of exciting new players. 

So without further ado, here’s what we learned from the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft: 

1 – Carolina Panthers: Alabama QB Bryce Young

This was the only pick I felt comfortable writing down before the draft actually started. It’s become clear in the past couple of weeks that Young won out in the minds of the Panthers, and at this point it doesn’t really matter if they traded up with him in mind or with multiple quarterbacks. Carolina has their guy who they hope will pull them out of purgatory, just like the last quarterback they took No. 1 overall did. 

Comparisons between Young and Cam Newton will be inevitable. In a lot of ways, the two players are complete opposites. Just wait for the inevitable photo of the 5-10, 195-pound Young next to Newton, who’s in the neighborhood of 6-5, 260. Newton excelled with dominant athleticism and charisma. Young is unflappably cool and poised, with a knack for getting the ball where it needs to be when it needs to be there. But the Panthers hope Young can have a similar impact, lifting the franchise out of the morass it’s been in since Newton’s departure and to even greater heights. 

For the first time in franchise history, the Panthers will also have an offensive-minded head coach in Frank Reich, which is a major difference as they onboard the next potential franchise guy. There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic that Young can hit the ground running with Reich. Carolina has rebuilt the skill positions enough and they had an offensive line that was in the top half of the league last year and could be even better in 2023. 

Last note, as a Panthers fan: Pretty easy to get excited about a dream scenario I outlined all the way back in November coming to fruition. 

2 – Houston Texans: Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud

Three weeks ago, this was the chalk pick. But nothing ever seems like it’s easy or simple with the Texans. There was a ton of smoke that they were looking at a defensive lineman instead despite their glaring need at quarterback, with national and local reporters saying as recently as Thursday morning they’d be surprised if Stroud was the pick. 

But in the end, the Texans do the conventional thing and get their quarterback of the future. The position is too important to ignore, even if the team weighed their options. And they still had some tricks up their sleeve, as you’ll see from the next pick…

As far as Stroud’s fit, he got picked apart over the past few weeks, whether it was the always nefarious and anonymous character questions or his performance on the S2 test. The questions about his ceiling are fair but Stroud was always the highest floor prospect in this class. His accuracy is best in class and the mobility questions are about desire, not aptitude. He can move well enough for the Shanahan-style system the Texans are implementing, and if they can build around him with weapons like the 49ers have, he absolutely can be a strong distributor for them. 

3 – TRADE, Houston Texans: Alabama DE Will Anderson Jr. 

With 12 picks this year and extra capital still in the bank from the Deshaun Watson trade, the Texans asked themselves “Por que no los dos?” and went back up to grab Anderson. However, they paid a massive premium. They swapped the No. 12 pick and got a fourth-round pick back while giving up the No. 33 pick this year, their 2024 first and a 2024 third. No matter which trade calculator you use, they gave up a bag, the kind teams usually pay to get a future quarterback, not a pass rusher. 

There’s a strong case to be made the Texans would have been better off banking their picks, taking Stroud and spending a few extra picks on pass rushers. Even “sure-thing” pass rushers at the top of the draft might not pan out how people expect, just look at Washington where the Commanders declined former No. 2 overall pick and 2020 DROY Chase Young’s fifth-year option this week. Giving up their own first instead of the Browns’ next year could especially sting if Houston struggles in Ryans’ first year, as it probably will be a better class than this year. 

The optics of coming away with both Stroud and Anderson are hard to ignore, though, and this was the price to pay. Regarding the player, Anderson was the easy consensus top defensive player in this draft. He has impeccable football character and was productive from the moment he stepped on the field at Alabama. Late in the draft process, it felt like some teams started to overthink him due to a lack of elite length or measurables compared to other prospects. Anderson always felt like the perfect prospect for new Texans HC DeMeco Ryans to select to kick off his tenure, I just figured it’d be one pick sooner. 

4 – Indianapolis Colts: Florida QB Anthony Richardson

Richardson’s landing spot was the one I was the most excited to see. He has the highest upside of any player in this class thanks to a blend of size, speed and arm strength we have only seen a few times. He also needed a good landing spot with a team prepared to accommodate his learning curve early. The term “project” doesn’t do justice to the nuances of Richardson’s game that are advanced for his age — there’s a reason I put him ahead of Stroud by a whisker when I looked at tape of the top guys in this class earlier this year — but he is inexperienced. He had just one year as a starter and completed only 53.8 percent of his passes. 

Fortunately, new Colts HC Shane Steichen is highly, highly thought of and is fresh off working with Eagles QB Jalen Hurts who had the kind of steep development growth Indianapolis is dreaming of with Richardson. We’ll see if he can follow through, as head coach is a different job than offensive coordinator, but the encouraging thing is this organization has a lot invested in seeing Richardson become a success, as opposed to if he’d slid and landed with another team that wasn’t necessarily expecting him to be there. 

After a dire 2022 season, this is the kind of pick that could save GM Chris Ballard’s job if it pans out, and it’s a risk he needed to take after years of handling the quarterback position conservatively. Of course if it doesn’t work out, it’s curtains for Ballard, but at least now he’s going down swinging. 

5 – Seattle Seahawks: Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon

If you don’t count the Texans, this was the first real curveball of the draft. There was a lot of buzz about them and the defensive linemen that came off the board in the ensuing picks, but apparently the Seahawks were among the teams that had character/medical concerns about those players. There was a lot of noise about the Seahawks potentially taking a quarterback, and perhaps if three hadn’t come off the board in the top four picks, they would have followed through. 

But what I love so much about the draft is how all the pieces of the puzzle click into place as the event plays out and the full picture becomes clear. With the performance of CB Tariq Woolen last year, a lot of people didn’t see corner as a need for the Seahawks. But you need to start someone across from Woolen. Witherspoon took a top 30 visit with the Seahawks late in the process that ended up flying a bit under the radar and was one of the cleaner prospects in this class. His highlight reel was filled with big hits, which you don’t often see for a corner, and you have to think that impressed Seattle.

The secondary was obviously a big part of Seattle’s success in the previous decade, and with the team poised to leap back into the ranks of the contending teams in the NFC, it makes sense that they’d look to turn what was already a solid position into a potentially overpowering strength. 

6 – TRADE, Arizona Cardinals: Ohio State OT Paris Johnson

After moving down from No. 3 overall with an enormous haul which I honestly did not think they would get, let alone for a non-quarterback, the Cardinals moved back into the top 10 for the guy it seems they were targeting at No. 3 all along. Arizona gave up a second and a fifth this year (No. 34 and No. 168) for the No. 3 pick and a third (No. 81). For a team with a ton of needs, this feels shrewd. 

They could have started anywhere but it makes sense with a quarterback they believe in to do whatever they can to enable him for success. That includes shoring up the protection. The Cardinals still have D.J. Humphries at left tackle but he’s getting older. Johnson has a higher ceiling than Humphries too, with outstanding size and athleticism to eventually develop into a high-level blindside protector. He might start on the right side to begin his career, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him eventually shift over. 

7 – Las Vegas Raiders: Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson

The Raiders were another team with a ton of holes and a number of directions they could have gone with this pick. Most mocks in the past few weeks didn’t have Wilson slipping this far, as he was getting a ton of gas to go as high as No. 2 overall. There are some real risks with him which is why he didn’t go top five, including a worrisome Lisfranc injury that’s lingered during the whole pre-draft process and prevented him from testing. 

Had he been able to test, it’s very likely Wilson would have put on a show. One of my favorite coach-isms about a player this offseason has been that Wilson “looks like he could tie his shoes standing up.” He’s huge at 6-6 and 270+ pounds and has scary movement ability for a player that big. And of course, his arm length of 35 and ⅝ inches is in the 96th percentile for edge rushers. 

There are a lot of similarities between Wilson and last year’s No. 1 pick, Travon Walker. Both were similarly sized, traits-based projections with less of a track record in college. But because athleticism is so important to succeeding as a pass rusher at the NFL level, it makes sense to roll the dice a little. As far as on-field fit, the Raiders can ease Wilson in behind Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones (another edge rusher who could do a decent impersonation of a pterodactyl), with the goal of stepping in for Jones full-time by 2024. 

8 – Atlanta Falcons: Texas RB Bijan Robinson

We’re at the point where we know in an objective sense that this isn’t a good pick. Robinson is probably going to walk into the league as one of the five best players at his position but the dynamics of the running back position dilute that impact. Atlanta had two solid players at the position already and could have gotten sufficient impact elsewhere, either later in the draft or free agency. 

But that horse has been beaten to death and plenty of folks will be having another go at it today. So let’s try and climb inside the Falcons’ war room to figure out why they felt this was the best pick to make. Atlanta has established it doesn’t necessarily subscribe to conventional NFL wisdom when it comes to positional value. The Falcons used the highest-ever pick on a tight end in 2021 when they selected Kyle Pitts and gave Chris Lindstrom the first ever $100 million-plus contract for a guard. They also tossed a big deal to S Jessie Bates in free agency.  

The Falcons have also reiterated at every opportunity they plan to give 2022 third-round QB Desmond Ridder a shot in 2023, including foregoing a run at Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. The best way to set Ridder up for success is to take as much pressure off of him at possible, and adding Robinson to an underrated Falcons skill position group would help with that. Falcons HC Arthur Smith got his job because of his work with the Titans, which also had a lot of success with an offensive model that featured a running back, not a quarterback.

Robinson is a different player than Titans RB Derrick Henry, he has a much more diverse skillset and can be a weapon in the passing game. He reminds me of former Rams (and Falcons) RB Todd Gurley. The Falcons also have more pass-catching talent than the Titans ever had and had one of the most diverse, run-heavy offenses in the league last season. In a wide-open NFC South, they could be frisky. 

Still, a lot will come down to Ridder. And if the Falcons were trying to build up the rest of the roster to make it more attractive for a future quarterback, they’d have been better off going pass rusher, cornerback, or even guard. 

9 – TRADE, Philadelphia Eagles: Georgia DT Jalen Carter

As widely speculated in the leadup to the draft, the Eagles had eyes for Carter and would make sure his slide from the top of the draft didn’t last too long. Philadelphia flipped a 2024 fourth-round pick to the Bears this year and next year to swap spots and get Carter, who also had been heavily linked to Chicago. With a pick they got from trading back last year, they ended up getting a player most people thought was the most talented in the entire class. 

Of course there’s a reason Carter was available at No. 9. In addition to his involvement in the tragic accident that led to the death of two Georgia students and led to him being cited for racing and reckless driving, there were questions about Carter’s work ethic that cropped up throughout the process. Plenty of teams thought those questions outweighed the talent. 

What might have given the Eagles some extra comfort is the presence of two of Carter’s former teammates on the roster, DT Jordan Davis and LB Nakobe Dean. They can help the transition into the NFL, including all the money Carter will still be stepping into, and guide him as he learns to be a professional. There’s a risk of course, but the upside at this point is well worth it for the Eagles and an already extremely talented squad. 

10 – TRADE, Chicago Bears: Tennessee OT Darnell Wright

If the Bears really were as high on Carter as some people indicated in the leadup to the draft, I don’t think they’d have moved off of him for just a fourth-round pick. So pocketing that and getting a player they really loved at a position of need is a solid win. And they were clearly huge fans of Wright, as this is far higher than he was usually mocked despite his name gaining a lot of steam in the public eye over the course of the process. 

Wright was a big-name recruit and former five-star who took some time to find his groove at Tennessee. In fact, he was seen as barely draftable per some reports coming into the 2022 season. But following a breakout season highlighted by shutting down all the SEC’s top pass rushers, including Anderson from Alabama, it makes sense that Wright ends up here. He should slot in immediately as a Day 1 starter for the Bears at right tackle where they had a massive void. 

11 – Tennessee Titans: Northwestern OL Peter Skoronski

There might not have been more trade speculation surrounding a team than there was about the Titans. They were moving up for a QB, they were moving back for more picks, the reports were all over the place, which was a big theme this year. In the end, they stayed put and took the best offensive lineman on the board who has drawn comparisons to a future Hall of Fame Cowboys G Zack Martin. 

Skoronski replaced Chargers LT Rashawn Slater as a true freshman at Northwestern and did not skip a beat. However, NFL teams see his fit more at guard given his lack of length. We’ll see what the Titans end up doing. They signed OT Andre Dillard ostensibly to play on the left side but could flip things around a little. No matter where he plays, Skoronski makes the weakest position group on the Titans, the offensive line, better. For a team facing a potential multi-year rebuild, this is exactly the kind of pick they had to make to start chipping away at their needs. 

12 – TRADE, Detroit Lions: Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs

The Lions picked up a fifth-round pick and moved one of their third-round picks 50 slots up to No. 34 overall to slide out of the top 10. That’s the bright side, as it’s never a bad move to add more picks. The selection of Gibbs might have been the most perplexing pick in the entire first round of the draft, however. 

Just like with Robinson and the Falcons, the conversation has very little to do with Gibbs’ merits as a player. He’s incredibly talented and some teams that wanted more of a pass-catching element in the backfield even had him over Robinson. The Lions just had so many other needs that no one really had running back on the radar for them as an option for anything other than a mid-round pick to build depth. They took Gibbs over Van Ness and Gonzalez, who were frequently mocked inside the top 10 and played higher value positions where Detroit has an apparent need. 

Evidently the grade the Lions had on Gibbs was so high it made up for all that. Detroit signed RB David Montgomery in free agency to replace Jamaal Williams and has RB D’Andre Swift on the last year of his rookie deal. Swift has been their big-play space back but there’s been a lot of frustration with him, whether it’s injury or inconsistency. Enough frustration evidently to use a first-round pick on his replacement. 

It’s absolutely fair to wonder about Swift’s future in Detroit after this pick, and the Lions will definitely get some trade calls. The selection of Gibbs pushes him to third on the depth chart. However, he’s still a talented player and running back is a position where injuries can accumulate quickly — another reason they’re risky investments in the first round. Because he’s still on his rookie contract, the Lions can hold onto him for a while to try and get the best deal. 

13 – Green Bay Packers: Iowa DE Lukas Van Ness

Right now, Van Ness would be behind both Rashan Gary and Preston Smith for a starting role as an edge rusher. But Gary is coming off of a torn ACL and might need to be eased back into action. Smith is a veteran who might not be with the team in 2024. And pass rusher is a position where it’s good to have a rotation to keep fresh legs running after the quarterback. While the Packers were frequently linked to an offensive playmaker, either a tight end or receiver, with their first pick, this makes a lot of sense. 

Van Ness has outstanding size and athletic traits at 6-5, 270+ pounds. He ran his 40-yard dash in 4.58 seconds and nearly cracked seven seconds in the three-cone drill — a much more predictive drill when it comes to NFL success. He didn’t start at Iowa, but that seems to be more due to a quirk with the coaching staff than a reflection on Van Ness. This is the type of forward-looking pick that could pay a lot of dividends for the Packers down the road. 

14 – TRADE, Pittsburgh Steelers: Georgia OT Broderick Jones

Trading up is a trick the Steelers have not pulled often but this was a move that was telegraphed ahead of the draft, like often happens in Pittsburgh. It’s comforting to know that remains the same despite new GM Omar Khan putting his stamp on the team. The Steelers gave up a fourth-round pick at No. 120 overall to flip with the Patriots and get the last tackle before a tier break. 

Jones is more of a developmental prospect than the other top tackles but he has outstanding athletic ability and showed flashes of high-end potential in his season as Georgia’s starting left tackle. Steelers HC Mike Tomlin isn’t afraid of taking on a bit of a project and is fond of sayings it’s his coaches’ job to coach, so the fit here makes sense. 

Jones isn’t guaranteed to start right away over Dan Moore Jr. on the left side, he’ll have to earn it. But clearly Pittsburgh sees enough in him to prioritize a position they haven’t historically. Since the NFL merger, the Steelers have drafted a tackle in the first round just four times before Thursday. 

15 – New York Jets: Iowa State DE Will McDonald IV

In a draft with few sure things, everyone expected the Jets to target an offensive tackle to protect their new quarterback and shore up a position plagued by uncertainty for a few years now. Unfortunately, the trade that netted them their savior at quarterback also pushed them out of range for a top tackle, which I’m sure was not totally unforeseen by Jets GM Joe Douglas. 

Douglas and Jets HC Robert Saleh come from the NFL school of thought that says when in doubt, invest in the trenches. I would bet my boss’ house Douglas took the top-rated lineman, offense or defense, on his board once he was unable to trade out, and that happened to be McDonald. This puts the Jets six deep at defensive end — Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers, Jermaine Johnson, Bryce Huff, Micheal Clemons and now McDonald — which could potentially set them up for a trade to shore up another area of weakness depending on what happens this summer. Lawson and Huff are entering contract years, too. 

McDonald is actually one of the players I like a lot in what overall is a deep edge rushing group, and he’s a fascinating case. He’s on the older side and will turn 24 in June, but he’s generally viewed as a developmental prospect because he played a dramatically different role at Iowa State than he’ll be asked to in the NFL. He’s 6-4 and weighed in at 239 pounds at the Combine, yet he often played in more of a five-technique role than as a spaced out edge rusher. He’ll be better in the NFL if he’s put out in space on the edge, where he can use his length (34 and ⅞-inch arms) and athleticism to flank offensive tackles. 

16 – Washington Commanders: Mississippi State CB Emmanuel Forbes

Washington gave us another surprise just like last year, as while they addressed a position of need, they elected to make Forbes the second cornerback off the board and not Oregon’s Gonzalez in what was one of the big surprises of the first round. 

(Not to toot my own horn too much, but in my second mock draft I pointed out that the range of Gonzalez’s reported top 30 visits, which was noted in the 2023 NFL Draft Visit tracker I compiled, was much broader than where he was going in mocks. Unfortunately, this was not a pick I kept in the final version.)

Forbes made NFL Media’s list of potential surprise first-round picks but they might have been the only ones who were surprised by the time the draft rolled around. He had some big fans in NFL buildings evidently, and it’s understandable. He was one of the most electric corners in college football, returning a staggering six of his career 14 interceptions for touchdowns. He was a three-year starter in the SEC with great tape who tested well, really the only knock on him is size. 

Unfortunately, it’s kind of a big knock. Forbes weighed in at just 166 pounds at the Combine, literally the 0th percentile per Mockdraftable. That’s a little scary for a defensive player who can be targeted by the offense, either with big receivers or in the running game. I’m not sure I’d have taken him over some of the other cornerback options in what is a really good class but it’s hard not to love his playmaking skills. Maybe he’ll add 10 pounds and be just fine. 

17 – TRADE, New England Patriots: Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez

Gonzalez ended up sliding down the board but still had a heck of a lot better of a night than either Kentucky QB Will Levis or even Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer did. More on them later. The Patriots pulled a classic New England move by trading back with the Steelers, picking up a fourth-round pick, and still taking the consensus best player on the board when they were picking. 

Although Gonzalez was clearly more polarizing in NFL buildings than he was for media analysts and the mock draft community, there’s still a lot to love about him as a prospect. He has prototypical size and speed for a cornerback at over six feet tall and with a 4.38 40 time. He broke out at Oregon in 2022 after transferring from Colorado. In a lot of ways, he’s similar to former top Lions pick and current Falcons CB Jeff Okudah as far as being high-end athletes with quieter demeanors at a position that often inspires brashness. 

For New England, he should fit in just fine. The Patriots are short on both true outside cornerbacks and long-term solutions right now, and Gonzalez should give them a solution to both. 

18 – Detroit Lions: Iowa LB Jack Campbell

The Lions defied the consensus big board again with their second first-round pick of the night and clearly had a draft board that was pretty different from everyone else. Most analysts had pegged Campbell as a second-round pick with perhaps an outside chance at creeping into the back of the first round once teams burned through the 10 or 15 first-round grades everyone seemed to have in this class. Detroit saw things differently and moved to fill a need. 

The positional value critique is a fair one. Linebacker isn’t running back, but it is a position that’s lost value in the modern NFL due to the emphasis on the passing game. If you can’t sack the quarterback or cover receivers, your value is more limited, and the linebackers who are true difference-makers in those two areas are pretty rare. It’s easier to find starting production later on in the draft or in free agency. 

However, I think there’s actually a lot to like about Campbell once you dig in. He has old-school size at the position (6-5, 250) with new-school athleticism. His Relative Athletic Score of 9.98 was the sixth best of any linebacker from 1987 to 2023. He plays with good instincts in the running game and in coverage and earned high marks for his work ethic and leadership as a two-time team captain at Iowa. And he’s been training with former Panthers LB and future HOFer Luke Kuechly. Sometimes these “reaches” in the first round can actually pan out well and I have that feeling with Campbell. 

19 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pittsburgh DT Calijah Kancey

I might just have to take the hater label when it comes to Kancey because I have not been able to get on board with all the first-round buzz he’s received, buzz that evidently was justified. Kancey has drawn some comparisons to Rams DT Aaron Donald because both were short, pass-rushing defensive tackles who went to Pitt. Grady Jarrett might be a more realistic comparison but even that is probably too aspirational. 

The positives with Kancey are obvious. He’s lightning-quick and tied the NFL record in the 40-yard dash for defensive tackles. He notched 27.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks over the past two seasons in the ACC, regularly wrecking games. Players who can provide interior disruption and collapse the pocket from the inside are highly valued in the NFL. 

The downside is his size. Kancey is 6-0, 280 or so pounds and has unnervingly short arms at just 30 and ⅝ inches. Some evaluators cited some play strength concerns as well, which will only be magnified with the jump to the NFL. Kancey has one nice trick but if that’s all he ends up being able to do, the Buccaneers just spent a first-round pick on a situational pass rusher. Not ideal!

20 – Seattle Seahawks: Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

The macro takeaway from how the first round unfolded for the Seahawks is that they had two chances to draft competition for QB Geno Smith and passed both times. I expected them to build around Smith for at least this season and not go after a replacement, but it’s good to get confirmation. Smith is the guy for the Seahawks, period. Now he gets the chance to build on his revelatory 2022 season. 

He’ll do that with an upgrade at wide receiver. In a receiver class that took a lot of slings and arrows during the pre-draft process, Smith-Njigba was widely seen as the consensus top option. It’s about right that he came off the board here instead of seven to nine picks earlier. He should slot right in, emphasis on slot, with Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf to give the Seahawks and Smith a terrific trio of weapons. Lockett and Metcalf are threats to go deep any play and Smith-Njigba provides a friendly option for Smith with his quick separation ability. Down the road, he should step right in for Lockett. 

Although the Witherspoon pick wasn’t expected, between him and Smith-Njigba the Seahawks have so far had one of my favorite drafts and probably would get my top grade for the first round alone. 

21 – Los Angeles Chargers: TCU WR Quentin Johnston

Seattle started what would be a four-pick run on wide receivers, with the Chargers going next and taking Johnston to add to their group. While plenty of mocks had Los Angeles going with a speedier option to diversify what is probably the slowest receiving corps in football, the Chargers proved once again they can’t resist size at the skill positions. Johnston is a giant in a receiving class filled with short receivers. 

What he provides the team right away is a more dynamic, albeit far less refined, alternative to Josh Palmer as a starting outside receiver. He’s a big body at 6-4 and 206 pounds, and although a 4.51 40 doesn’t seem impressive, that’s solid for his size. He has buildup speed to get behind the defense and his greatest strength in college was his work after the catch. 

What holds him back are his hands. Drops and bad catching technique plagued Johnston at TCU. He had one of the lowest contested catch success rates of any receiver in the class despite his size and that will need to be corrected for him to live up to his draft position. He needs to improve as a route runner as well, though the athletic tools to have success are there. 

I thought there was a great chance Johnston would slip out of the first round entirely, and considering the Chargers had their pick of all but one receiver and all of the tight ends, this is definitely a pick that I’m eyeballing as one that won’t age well. 

22 – Baltimore Ravens: Boston College WR Zay Flowers

As far back as the Shrine Bowl, there was buzz that the Ravens were enthralled by Flowers. Here we are in April and the two sides have found each other together again. The Ravens still have a long-term need at receiver despite the signing of Odell Beckham Jr. and clearly have made it a point to try and better surround freshly-extended QB Lamar Jackson with weapons as they enter a new era with him. It was not a surprise in the slightest to see them go with Flowers. 

He should fit in as a slot receiver with Beckham and former first-round WR Rashod Bateman manning the two outside positions (probably Bateman as the Z and Beckham as the X if you’re that deep into the weeds, though all three have some versatility). Down the road, Flowers absolutely could develop into an inside-outside receiver, as he has some of the best release work at the line of scrimmage of any receiver prospect in this class. While he’s short, he’s got some stockiness to him at 180+ pounds, and the NFL is becoming less stringent with its size requirements at all positions. 

Explosive movement is Flowers’ calling card, both releasing off the line and with elusiveness after the catch. The weakness is his size, catch radius and some glitches with his hands, though to his credit that’s an area where you could see steady improvement over the course of his college career. For a player as small as he is, he also doesn’t have the elite speed you’d necessarily want to compensate. He plays plenty fast, though, and it’s telling that the Ravens kept this pick and used it on him rather than traded it. 

23 – Minnesota Vikings: USC WR Jordan Addison

The receiver run continued with Minnesota plucking Addison to add to their offense. He’ll replace veteran Adam Thielen as the combo slot-outside receiver who makes defenses pay for all the attention they have to dedicate to Justin Jefferson. Like many receivers in this class, Addison is short and small, checking in at 5-11 and 173 pounds. He only ran a 4.49 40 at that size too, which is a little concerning. Between that and the drop in production he had after transferring to USC, it hasn’t been an outstanding past year for his draft stock. 

But go flip on his 2021 tape at Pitt and you’ll see why he was still a first-round pick. Addison runs outstanding routes and understands a lot of the subtle nuances that go into playing the receiver position beyond just being bigger or faster than the guy trying to cover you. His hands have improved over the course of his college career as well. He probably isn’t strong enough to be a full-time outside receiver like Calvin Ridley or DeVonta Smith but he still should be a very good player. 

24 – TRADE, New York Giants: Maryland CB Deonte Banks 

New York sent fifth and seventh-round picks to the Jaguars to move up one spot and presumably box out other teams that were interested in moving up for Banks, who a lot of people thought could be the third cornerback off the board somewhere in the teens. Athletically Banks checks every box you could look for in a corner with his length and speed, coming in over six foot and running in the 4.3 range at the Combine. He had some really impressive moments on tape too, including going toe-to-toe with a future top pick in 2024, Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Giants want to be a team that locks opponents up with tight man coverage and harries them with the blitz, so Banks could be a pivotal player for them pretty quickly. His skill set is perfectly suited for their scheme. He’ll start as the No. 2 corner across from Adoree’ Jackson but the veteran is in the final year of his contract, so Banks could be top dog sooner rather than later. 

25 – TRADE, Buffalo Bills: Utah TE Dalton Kincaid

The Jaguars traded back yet again, picking up another fourth-rounder. More on that in a minute. The team coming up was the Bills, who were boxed out of the run on receivers just a few picks earlier but still had an offensive weapon in mind with Kincaid. The draft’s top receiving tight end, Kincaid gives Buffalo another weapon and gives them some formational versatility to hopefully try and prevent the offense from stagnating the way it did last season. Kincaid is highly thought of by some evaluators and could have 1,000-yard potential at the position, which is pretty good compared to the available receiver options. 

Now, it has to be said that tight end is a position that often takes some time to adjust to coming from college to the NFL. In fact, quarterback might be one of the only positions where the transition is harder. So expectations should be tempered to a degree for Kincaid as a rookie but it’s obvious Buffalo thinks he can be a big help down the road. 

26 – Dallas Cowboys: Michigan DT Mazi Smith

Here’s proof of why speaking about the draft in absolute terms is almost always a way to get egg on your face. Two of the most popular lines of thinking about the Cowboys heading into the first round were that Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer would not get past Dallas if he was still on the board, and that the Cowboys hadn’t taken a defensive tackle in the first round in nearly 40 years and wouldn’t break that trend in 2023. 

Oops. 

This isn’t a sexy pick but it’s the kind of meat and potatoes selection that can quietly make a team better. Smith is an outstanding athlete with limited college production. He’s freakishly strong and could help firm up a Cowboys defense that was soft against the run last season The tools are there for him to eventually develop more of a pass-rushing presence and not just be a two-down player. 

27 – TRADE, Jacksonville Jaguars: Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison

The Jaguars traded down twice, picking up additional fourth, fifth and seventh-round selections, and likely still got the player they would have taken. The additional picks are also important for a Jaguars team that is pretty tight to the cap and needs to maximize their draft resources going forward to take the next step in a loaded AFC. While they had bigger needs than tackle, none of them were particularly glaring. And tackle depth for this team is crucial given Cam Robinson is coming off a knee injury and will be suspended for a chunk of the season and Walker Little will be a first-time starter. Both have two years remaining on their deal as well. 

It’s probably better for the Jaguars that they don’t have to rush Harrison into the lineup right away, as he’s viewed as more of a developmental project which is why he wasn’t taken in the first tier of tackles that went off the board. He was one of just five tackles to crack five seconds in the 40 yard dash, which is a good sign as far as athleticism, and is only 21. Time to hone his technique and get stronger without the pressure of starting 17 games against NFL pass rushers should do him good. 

28 – Cincinnati Bengals: Clemson DE Myles Murphy

One of the underrated luxuries of being a contending team is that even though you’re picking at the end of the round, you have the luxury of having fewer needs and the ability to look ahead to set the team up for success down the road. That can allow you to capitalize when the board falls a certain way and the Bengals are a great example of this in 2023. 

Murphy had a pretty volatile draft outlook with a range spanning anywhere from just inside the top 10 to the end of the round. He wasn’t able to work out due to injury until near the end of the pre-draft process but when he did, the results matched the tape in a lot of ways. At 6-5 and 270 pounds, he hit 4.53 in the 40 and 25 reps on the bench press, but his three-cone drill was underwhelming. Still, he checked a ton of important boxes for what the Bengals look for. 

Defensive end isn’t a need right now with the duo of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. But Hendrickson is under contract for two more seasons, at which point the Bengals’ historical reluctance to hand out major third contracts to players suggests he’ll be signing elsewhere. The Bengals are also about to exit the window afforded to them by QB Joe Burrow’s rookie contract and will have some hard financial decisions to make in the coming years. 

That’s what makes the Murphy pick and the luxury to make it so great for Cincinnati. In addition to the advantages of having multiple potential high-end pass rushers for depth and to rotate, drafting Murphy allows the Bengals to fill a hole possibly two years before it opens. 

29 – New Orleans Saints: Clemson DT Bryan Bresee

On the flip side, the Saints are a team that pretty consistently drafts for need and ends up being reactionary as a result. The biggest need on their roster was defensive tackle, so they took the best defensive tackle left on the board. 

Bresee was one of those guys who went way high in the early 2023 mocks before NFL teams started actually grinding his tape. There’s a lot to like, specifically his athleticism and his size. He has the tools to be a plus player in both the run and pass game. However, injuries have been a factor. The Saints are hoping better days are ahead from both sides. 

30 – Philadelphia Eagles: Georgia OLB Nolan Smith

Once again I am struck by just how good the Eagles are at this whole building a football team thing. Smith is a player several reports indicated was on their shortlist to be picked at No. 10 overall before they traded up for Carter. Instead, they stand put and get him 20 picks later. 

Kudos to the Eagles for having the discipline not to panic and trade up. They read the room well on other teams having concerns, apparently about Smith’s lack of size and college production. I don’t dig into the tape on non-skill players as much but in my opinion, there’s a lot to like about Smith. He doesn’t play small, his tape is littered with examples of him bull-rushing tackles or attacking pulling guards. His elite athleticism (4.39 40 at the Combine) also shows up on the tape. 

And we had this discussion with the Georgia prospects last year, there’s just so much talent on that defense that it depresses the stats for everyone. The Eagles can have extra confidence that Smith can translate because they have a very similar player in DE Haason Reddick. Both are undersized but quick edge rushers with better play strength than you’d think. Reddick dominated this past season and I think Smith has similar upside. 

31 – Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas State DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah

In a minor upset, the Chiefs ended up not trading up or out of the first round, electing to sit pat and make their pick at the end of the round. I’m sure it was not for a lack of trying. In the end, they address one of their biggest needs by adding another pass rusher to reinforce the defensive line, landing on the local product in Anudike-Uzomah. 

There were some more mixed opinions on this group of edge-rushing prospects in the draft analyst community but Anudike-Uzomah was the seventh first-rounder, which cements my opinion that it was a relatively deep group. He checked a bunch of boxes that you want to see in terms of college production, age, size and athleticism, particularly his three-cone drill. Along with last year’s first-round DE George Karlaftis, the hope for the Chiefs is they have a pair of long-term bookend edge rushers to complement DT Chris Jones. Given what we just saw QB Patrick Mahomes and company accomplish, it’s perhaps not that surprising they passed up an offensive player. 

32 – Best of the Rest

Plenty of notable players are still on the board for the start of Day 2. These five are probably the ones most expected to be first-round picks: 

  • Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer
  • Kentucky QB Will Levis
  • Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker
  • Alabama S Brian Branch
  • Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.

Levis’ slide is the most jarring. I had some inkling he could be in for a rough night but it’s still a jolt to see him fall all the way out of the first round after so much hype as a potential top-10 pick to the Colts. Hooker is similar, though less extreme. Both players are good reminders that the media can often create an illusion when it comes to the draft stock for quarterbacks. Figuring out which ones are real is more art than science, though. 

At this point, it would not be surprising at all to see Hooker go before Levis. There have been too many reports that Levis didn’t interview well and his tape last year at Kentucky is what it is. Hooker has the advantage over Levis in both those categories. Perhaps the real question is where Levis goes. Once a quarterback slides this far, anything is on the table…

At this point I’m more surprised Mayer slid out of the first round than either of the quarterbacks. He was getting a ton of buzz to go in the teens, as well as the aforementioned Dallas tidbit. It appears the depth of this year’s tight end class pushed Mayer down. Unlike Kincaid who is a high-end receiver, Mayer is more of a jack-of-all-trades type at the position and that didn’t help him distinguish himself enough to be a first-rounder. I’d expect him and several others to go off the board early in Round 2. 

Branch and Porter Jr. were the other two who frequently found themselves in the first round during mock season, but slipped late in the process. For Branch, it’s a combination of NFL teams devaluing the safety position and him testing at a below-average level. It appears teams had questions about Porter Jr.’s scheme versatility and lack of production. 

This Week In Football

  • Two of the NFL’s biggest storylines somehow both wrapped up this week, as the Packers and Jets buckled down under the looming deadline of the draft and got a trade done for QB Aaron Rodgers. That one wasn’t much of a surprise but it was still a relief for it to finally go through. The final compensation: 
    • Packers get: No. 13, No. 42 and a conditional 2024 second that becomes a first if Rodgers hits 65 percent of the snaps. 
    • Jets get: Rodgers, the No. 15 pick and a 2023 fifth while giving the Packers back a sixth as well. 
  • So basically, the Jets swapped picks in the first round and gave up a second, plus a likely first, for Rodgers. They also inherited the rest of his contract, which is significant. The Jets will spread it out but they’ll pay more than $107 million in some form over the next two years. Overall, it’s a lot, especially if Rodgers only ends up playing one year. The early indication is neither Rodgers nor the Jets view this as just a one-year thing, but you obviously never know with Rodgers. Still, the Jets obviously feel this move is worth it to make them Super Bowl contenders. It remains to be seen how that plays out but there’s no denying they got significantly better at quarterback. As for the Packers, this is a solid return. Not nearly as good as if they’d been willing to trade Rodgers last year but realistically the 8-9 season was the breaking point both sides needed.
  • The real surprise was the Ravens and QB Lamar Jackson agreeing in principle to a five-year, $260 million extension OUT OF NOWHERE. After two years of negotiations and stalemating, both sides just up and decided to compromise. Jackson came down the most from his previous request for either a fully guaranteed deal or more than Browns QB Deshaun Watson’s $230 million guaranteed. But the Ravens deserve credit for not drawing a hard line and updating their contract offer following the Eagles’ extension for QB Jalen Hurts. All of a sudden, a situation that seemed like it could stretch on for months and get even uglier was resolved. I said I was weirdly optimistic a week ago in this same column but never in my wildest dreams would I have suspected a resolution this fast. 
  • For the second straight year, the NFL handed down a notable suspension for players breaching the firewall that’s supposed to be between the league and the booming gambling industry. Five players were suspended, the most notable being Lions WR Jameson Williams. The former first-rounder will hit another roadblock in his young career and be sidelined for the first six games in 2023. Fellow Lions WR Stanley Berryhill was also suspended for six games, while WR Quintez Cephus and S C.J. Moore got bans of at least a year and were cut by Detroit. Commanders DE Shaka Toney also got hit with a minimum one-year suspension. The difference is they bet on NFL games while Williams and Berryhill bet on college games while at the team facility. Had they made those bets at home or elsewhere, they’d have been fine. The optics of these suspensions as the NFL gets cozier and cozier with the gambling industry aren’t great but the reality is there has to be a firewall and teams put a lot of effort into educating players on what is and isn’t allowed. The responsibility for stepping over the line falls completely on them. 
  • Another suspension in the works but not yet official is for Jaguars LT Cam Robinson, who will be sidelined due to a violation of the NFL’s performance-enhancing drug policy. It’s not clear yet how long Robinson will be suspended. Under the updated policy, it looks like it could be anywhere from two to eight games. Robinson was already recovering from a knee injury that ended his 2022 season early but this is another hit to Jacksonville’s tackle group. Depth here is vital, which is why they spent a first-rounder on someone who will be a swing tackle for at least a year. 
  • Teams have until Monday to officially exercise the fifth-year options for players taken in the first round in 2020. For the most part, there haven’t been many surprises. The obvious names like Bengals QB Joe Burrow and Vikings WR Justin Jefferson had their options picked up, formalities in advance of long-term deals being negotiated later this summer. There was one surprise, kind of. The Commanders declined the fifth-year option for DE Chase Young, who was the defensive rookie of the year in 2020. In that sense, it’s surprising, but in the two seasons since then Young has missed 22 games over two seasons with a knee injury and has just 1.5 sacks in the 12 games he did play. It was also telling when the Commanders declined time after time when asked to give a straight answer about Young’s option. No reason not to do that unless they were seriously thinking about declining. Now this sets up a contract year in 2023 for Young — and fellow DE Montez Sweat. How the Commanders handle it is going to be fascinating. 
  • There were a few other notable transactions this week:
    • The Bills signed K Tyler Bass to a four-year, $20.4 million extension. The deal makes him the No. 4 highest-paid kicker in football, behind the Ravens’ Justin Tucker, Colts’ Matt Gay and Seahawks’ Jason Myers. He was entering the final year of his rookie deal and while his career accuracy mark of 85.6 on field goals doesn’t necessarily support this high of a deal, he’s been much better the past two years. 
    • The Jets’ first big move of the week, perhaps keyed by the other one they were about to make, was bringing back C Connor McGovern who started the past three seasons for them. McGovern has been languishing in free agency, with neither the Jets nor any other team showing much interest despite his overall solid play from the past few seasons. PFF had him inside their top ten centers each of the past two years and three of the past four. However, he re-signed in New York for less than $2 million. It’s a solid move for the Jets to keep a decent floor for their offensive line. The goal will be to raise the ceiling in the draft. 
    • Reinforcing the defensive line depth has been a big priority for the Giants this offseason and they made another addition with DL A’Shawn Robinson. Billed as a one-year deal worth up to $8 million, the base value is closer to $5 million, which is still significant this time of year. Robinson joins Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams and Rakeem Nunez-Roches, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Giants add a draft pick here either. Williams is in the last year of his deal. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

File this away for now. But once the Chargers and Bengals sign their quarterbacks to new deals, there’s probably a good chance the Chiefs get an update done with Mahomes…

I’d say Jackson ended up doing pretty well for himself. Unless the argument is that an agent would have somehow got him a fully-guaranteed deal…

For quarterbacks negotiating a long-term deal, patience pays off more often than not given how fast the salary grows at the position…

In case you missed it, the betting markets made a huge jump for Levis in the leadup to the draft based largely on a Reddit post from a rando. This article is a neat dive into how something like that is possible from books that are supposed to be pretty sharp…

This article from The Athletic is another good read about how NIL is impacting college quarterbacks and their decision to go pro. Plenty of guys stayed in school this year and several collectives are basing budgets to keep guys on what they’d make on their rookie salary…

Looking for the latest NFL Insider News & Rumors?

Be sure to follow NFL Trade Rumors on TWITTER and FACEBOOK for breaking NFL News and Rumors for all 32 teams!

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR

Leave a Reply