NFLTR Review: Trade & Coaching Candidates In Carolina

By
Logan Ulrich
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The Panthers made the first big wave of the season by firing HC Matt Rhule, and they might not be done:

  • The top trade candidates if Carolina has a fire sale
  • Names to watch for the coaching cycle
  • How to rebuild this team?

The Big Picture: What’s Next For The Panthers? 

Five games into the third season of the Matt Rhule era, the Panthers pulled the rip cord. It’s hard to say it was a surprise. Any optimism about Rhule within the fanbase faded a long time ago, and with the team at 1-4 and showing zero signs of progress it seemed like it was only a matter of time before he was fired. Once you’re at that point, why wait? 

There are still 12 more games but in practical terms, the Panthers’ season is over. Rhule’s exit isn’t gonna solve the plethora of issues with this team, that will be someone else’s job in 2023. It’s all about the future in Carolina now, and that has massive ripple effects that will touch the other teams in the league.

There are players who could be available for trade. The team will be doing research on the next head coach in the coming months to make a hire in January or February. And at some point, the organization has to chart a path forward out of what has been a dismal start to owner Dave Tepper’s time in the league. 

We dive into all of that with some concrete things to watch in the months ahead for Carolina

Trade Candidates

The trade buzz started almost immediately after the news of Rhule’s firing broke, with other teams circling like buzzards hoping to pick off parts of the team as the season foundered. It’s probably fair to assume at least some of the speculation about star players like DE Brian Burns and WR D.J. Moore was manufactured. But there are some very good reasons for Carolina to be sellers ahead of the trade deadline in Week 8. 

Looking ahead to 2023, the Panthers only have limited resources to revamp the roster. They have just four draft picks in 2023, with their third and sixth-rounders in New England as part of the move up for 2022 third-rounder Matt Corral and last year’s deal for CB Stephon Gilmore. Their seventh-rounder is in Jacksonville in exchange for WR Laviska Shenault along with a sixth-round pick in 2024. Either their fifth or fourth-rounder will convey to Cleveland for QB Baker Mayfield depending on if he hits 70 percent of the snaps in 2024, leaving them with just five picks in that class right now. 

The team isn’t flush with cap space either. Right now, Over The Cap has the Panthers $11.5 million in the red for 2023, and has them 30th out of 32 teams in effective cap space, which takes into account money for draft picks and filling out a full roster. Trades could both help free up cap space and bolster the Panthers’ pick collection. 

The obvious headliner is RB Christian McCaffrey. We went into a lot more detail last week in this space about why the Panthers should trade McCaffrey, and firing Rhule has removed one of the major obstacles to doing a deal. They shouldn’t and won’t give him away but if another team is willing to give up a premium pick, it would make sense for Carolina to evaluate where a running back who will be 27 next year fits into their plans. 

Burns and Moore were the other names brought up in a lot of the trade speculation this week along with former first-round DT Derrick Brown, and those would absolutely be the most compelling pieces other teams would like to add to their own rosters. Those aren’t the players the Panthers need to be trading, however. All three are young, building block-type players. Moore just signed a major deal, Burns is up next year and Brown seems to be taking a big step toward having his fifth-year option picked up for 2024. These are selling points for a new coach to build around, not assets to dangle for picks who may or may not pan out as well. 

The lone caveat I would add here is with Burns. 2023 will be a contract year for Burns and he’ll be due $16 million on the fifth-year option. Pass rusher salaries have skyrocketed to nearly $30 million a year for the top guys, and Burns could make a legit case for $25 million a year based on what the Raiders gave DE Maxx Crosby. Is that too rich for Carolina’s blood? Panthers GM Scott Fitterer called Burns an extension priority after picking up his option but he also said something interesting before the draft this past April talking about their options with the No. 6 pick:

And we could always go pass-rusher because Brian Burns is coming up. I mean, we’ll do the option, but if that money gets out of hand, it’s better to have somebody ready to go in the hopper.“

:eyeballs emoji:

I still think the chances of a Burns trade are minimal, especially before the deadline in a few weeks. But I don’t think the idea of a trade is entirely far-fetched. There are parallels to me to the Titans’ situation this past offseason with WR A.J. Brown where they decided they didn’t want to pay the market rate for a premium position. If Carolina goes that route, it would make more sense to do it closer to the draft. 

Outside of McCaffrey and the young studs, the most compelling candidate the Panthers have available to trade for is WR Robbie Anderson. Anderson has struggled along with the rest of the offense the past two seasons, with just 13 catches and 206 yards in five games this season. The 29-year-old will almost certainly be a cap casualty next year, as he has a $21 million cap hit, $12 million of which could be saved in a release. 

However, Anderson has one trait that’s in high demand around the NFL. Speed. There’s a compelling case to be made his recent struggles have been due to the quarterback futility the Panthers have been mired in the past two years. In 2020 when QB Teddy Bridgewater started most of the season, Anderson had a career year with 95 receptions and 1,096 yards. 

There are a number of offenses around the league that could use a talented deep threat like Anderson. And it just so happens Anderson is only due the veteran minimum salary after restructuring his deal earlier this offseason, meaning he’s ultra-cheap. Any acquiring team would only owe the remainder of his 2022 base salary. They’d technically be acquiring his 2023 compensation but none of it is guaranteed, so there’s no risk for a new team to cut Anderson during the offseason if things don’t work out. 

It’s a no-brainer for the Panthers to trade Anderson if they can. Given the factors — his salary, speed and position he plays — they might actually be able to drum up a decent market and get a solid return. Not a second-round pick or anything, but a solid Day 3 pick like a fifth or perhaps even a fourth if a team gets incredibly desperate is not outside the realm of possibility. 

The Packers offense has been constricted through five weeks because they don’t have anyone who can win downfield reliably. The same is true of the Rams. The Chargers have a talented receiving corps with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams but those two might be the slowest starting duo in the league. Adding Anderson with QB Justin Herbert’s cannon of an arm would bring an explosive element Los Angeles’ offense just doesn’t have right now. 

You could add in the Titans and Ravens as teams that are thin at receiver, although their offensive systems minimize the importance of the position. The Giants have been hit hard by injuries and Anderson is from New Jersey, went to Temple and started his career with the Jets. But even though they’re 4-1, there’s not really a sense that the new regime is going to be aggressive at the trade deadline. 

Here are some other trade candidates the team could consider: 

LB Shaq Thompson

There is a hard decision coming up for the Panthers when it comes to Thompson. Like Anderson, he’s also got an enormous, $20+ million cap hit in 2023, the final year of his deal. He’s 29 and dealt with knee issues this whole offseason. Add it all up, and it looks increasingly likely that Thompson — a team captain and one of the last remaining players from happier, winning times in Carolina — will be a cap casualty next offseason. 

If the front office is clear-eyed about the situation, that means Thompson is one of the players who should be available before the deadline. Like Anderson, he’s also due just a minimum base salary for the rest of the 2022 season, with no guarantees remaining on his 2023 figure. That could help facilitate a deal. 

Not as many teams are desperate for linebacker play, however. One possibility could be the Washington Commanders, who are struggling on defense and have plenty of familiarity with Thompson given most of their coaching staff worked with him in Carolina. That’s assuming Washington also isn’t entering sell mode given their 2-4 record. 

OL Cameron Erving

Signed in 2020 as part of an attempt to cheaply patch the offensive line that did not go well, Erving has been a backup this season and has played zero snaps. Still, the league as a whole is desperate for even replacement-level offensive line play. Erving can also play all five positions, which is an added bonus. 

Carolina’s paying Erving $4 million in base salary, so there’s a good chance an acquiring team would ask them to eat some of that in any deal. Plenty of teams could use reinforcements on the offensive line but Erving has some familiarity with the Cowboys that could make him interesting to Dallas to fortify the roster ahead of the deadline. 

OL Bradley Bozeman

A lot of people expected Bozeman to do a lot better in free agency than the one-year, $2.8 million deal he signed with Carolina. The fact that he didn’t beat out Pat Elflein for the starting job indicates maybe the league was on to something. Still, he’s cheap, competent, and can play both guard and center. He could have some value to another team.

LB Frankie Luvu

This would qualify as a surprise given how well Luvu has been playing for the Panthers in the first quarter of the season. He was a revelation last year and cashed in this offseason on a two-year, $9 million extension. Former DC Phil Snow had big plans for Luvu and he has been making splash plays every week. 

However, Snow’s gone, removed by new HC Steve Wilks who will look to put more of his own stamp on the defense. Does he share the same vision for Luvu? What about a potential new coach next year? All of those are reasons why the Panthers should listen if they get calls on Luvu, and why they might pull the trigger on a deal. 

DE Marquis Haynes

Haynes also signed an extension with the Panthers this offseason, but he’s the type of player who can fall between the cracks in coaching changes. He’s got great speed but his size largely limits him to a role as a situational pass rusher. Given the importance of a good pass rush, though, that could be enough to draw some interest. 

Longshots

  • DL Henry Anderson: A preseason waiver claim, one the Panthers didn’t have competition for. Still, can provide at least replacement-level DL play
  • LB Cory Littleton: Carolina is deep at linebacker and can afford to give up someone. Littleton has a rep for being solid in coverage
  • WR/KR Andre Roberts: Currently on injured reserve but he’s a proven returner which could be attractive to other teams
  • S Sean Chandler: Probably not more than a replacement-level player at best but has starting experience and special teams value

The Next Coach

Carolina now has an extra early start on researching coaching candidates, though it’ll be interesting to see how the hiring cycle plays out. Fifteen teams have hired at least one new head coach in the past two seasons, including 10 last year. It would be natural to see that snap back with fewer vacancies this year. That could offset the fact that the Panthers’ coaching vacancy is not going to be held in particularly high regard. 

There are the aforementioned cap and draft limitations. There are also questions about the situation a new coach will be walking into. Tepper stopped short of a full-throated defense of Fitterer and the front office. But in all likelihood, a new coach will be entering an arranged marriage with Fitterer, who will probably have much more influence going forward after Rhule had the final say on personnel. 

A new coach would be fair to question Tepper’s record as well. All organizations are only as good as the person at the top, and right now Tepper’s ownership has been defined by big promises and zero results, both on and off the field. The NFL’s wealthiest owner (until he was passed by the Walton family in Denver) promised the best facilities in the league, then switched from grass to turf because it was cheaper and killed a state-of-the-art practice complex in Rock Hill over financial quarrels with local officials. 

Still, at the end of the day there are only 32 head coaching jobs in the NFL. And year after year, there’s no rhyme or reason to which candidates succeed and which ones flame out. So even if the Panthers can’t attract the “top” candidates, it doesn’t preclude them from hitting gold. 

As to who that might be, teams often pivot away from their former coach when making another hire. With the failure of Rhule making the leap from the college game and not showing much vision on how to build an offense, it’s rational to expect the Panthers to gravitate toward coaching candidates with a ton of NFL experience who can build a winning culture and turn around one of the NFL’s worst offenses. 

Some early names to consider: 

Cowboys DC Dan Quinn

Quinn was one of the top candidates in the hiring cycle last year and got deep in the process with the Broncos before pulling out. You could argue he’ll have better options than the Panthers but the swinging factor could be his relationship with Fitterer. The two worked together in Seattle and that could alleviate any concerns about the dynamic between a new head coach and incumbent general manager. 

Quinn’s coaching credentials mostly come on the defensive side of the football, working with Seattle’s defense during the Legion of Boom days and turning the Cowboys into what looks like one of the NFL’s best defenses this year. As the head coach in Atlanta, the defense did rank in the top 10 the year they made the Super Bowl but struggled in his other seasons. He finished with a 43-32 record with the Falcons, getting fired five games into his sixth season with an 0-5 record. 

Overall, Quinn is easy to connect to the job based on his proven NFL experience, leadership credentials and the potential for alignment with Fitterer in a crucial offseason for the Panthers. The way his tenure with the Falcons fizzled out is slightly concerning and suggests he might be a better defensive coordinator than head coach, but there are a lot of positives you can talk yourself into. 

Bills DC Leslie Frazier

If experience is the main qualification the Panthers will look for, Frazier is oozing with it. The 63-year-old has coached well over two decades in the NFL, with 17 years as either a defensive coordinator or head coach. He’s been the defensive coordinator in Buffalo since 2017 with impressive results. It’s important to remember that defensive performance year to year can be incredibly volatile. Defenses are weak link systems, meaning they’re only as good as their worst player. Between injuries, annual personnel changes and the whims of the bounces of the ball impacting turnovers, it’s incredibly hard to maintain a high level of play on that side of the ball. 

So the fact that Frazier’s Bills defenses have finished top 10 or better in takeaways every single year since 2017 should catch your eye. Since 2018, they’ve also finished inside the top three in yards allowed three times and inside the top two in points allowed twice. In 2022, they’re No. 2 and No. 1 in those categories respectively right now. 

Frazier was a rare interim coach who was promoted to the full-time job after going 3-3 in relief of Brad Childress in 2010. His next three years he had records of 3-13, 10-6 and 5-10-1, with the Vikings firing him after three seasons, one playoff berth and no playoff wins. The lack of a franchise quarterback might have been his biggest downfall, as the Vikings cycled between Christian Ponder, Donovan McNabb and Matt Cassel for the bulk of his tenure. Their lone playoff appearance in 2012 was fueled by RB Adrian Peterson’s MVP season. 

Like Quinn, Frazier’s defenses also fell off dramatically once he became the head coach and had big-picture things taking up his time. His unit was bottom of the barrel in 2013 and that probably led to his firing. His work in Buffalo has revived his coaching prospects, however, and he checks a lot of boxes that the Panthers could be looking for. 

Rams DC Raheem Morris

So far both coaches mentioned have been defensive coaches. Morris is unique in that he actually has experience on both sides of the ball. He worked as the Falcons WR coach from 2016-2019, including their run to the Super Bowl. He also has been a head coach for two other teams, including his first job with the Buccaneers from 2009-2011 and a stint as the interim coach for the Falcons in 2020. 

Morris’ teams only topped four wins in one of those seasons, which was a jump to 10-6 in his second year in Tampa. But he’s been viewed for a while as someone who would benefit greatly from experience if given another head coaching opportunity, as he was just 33 when the Bucs tabbed him to replace Jon Gruden. 

Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy

The Panthers actually interviewed Bieniemy back in 2020 before settling on Rhule. Since then, Bieniemy has gone on to interview with nearly half the league but remains shut out of a head coaching opportunity. Each year the Chiefs continue to look like a juggernaut on offense. 

Normally Kansas City’s offensive coordinator would be a pipeline job fueling coaching opportunities around the league. However, Bieniemy is in real danger of being passed up by subordinates, as former Chiefs QB coach Mike Kafka took the Giants offensive coordinator job this year and seems like a good candidate to get head coaching interviews at the end of the season. 

There have been allusions to Bieniemy “not interviewing well” and some potential concerns about legal issues when he was younger. Other prickly coaches have gotten jobs, however, and so have other coaches with similar issues. Bieniemy is of course Black and unfortunately has become a symbol of the NFL’s diversity struggles in hiring. 

He obviously doesn’t have any better chances of being a good head coach than anyone else on this list, but in terms of experienced coaches with an offensive background, there is no one with a resume like Bieniemy’s available. Other team’s loss could become Carolina’s gain — or it could all blow up. Bieniemy at least deserves the chance to write his own story. 

How do the Panthers rebuild?

Before the Panthers chart a path forward, they have to look back. What doomed the Matt Rhule era? More than anything, it was how the team managed the quarterback position. Tepper infamously said “Rome wasn’t built in a day” when discussing the process of rebuilding the team after firing former HC Ron Rivera. Rhule was fond of the slogan “The Process,” also suggesting a meticulous, incremental progression that would result in a winning team. 

Yet when it came to quarterback, it seemed like there was no coherent vision. Their first move was to release franchise icon Cam Newton and sign Bridgewater to a three-year, $63 million deal that gave them flexibility down the road to upgrade, ironically paying him more than Newton was owed. But they got sick of Bridgewater after a season, went all in on trading for a big-name quarterback, struck out, and resorted to overpaying for Sam Darnold instead of drafting someone like Justin Fields or Mac Jones. It spiraled from there. 

That impatient approach leaked to other areas of the roster as well, and the end result was just a mess where it never seemed like Rhule’s vision for the team, if he had one, got off the ground. 

Going forward, it will be imperative for the team brain trust, including Tepper, Fitterer and a new coach, to have a plan and to stick to it, particularly at quarterback. Carolina’s roster is not devoid of talent, which is part of what doomed Rhule when he couldn’t get better results. But the Panthers still have to be the favorite over the rest of the season to earn the No. 1 pick. In addition to not playing well, including at quarterback, the injuries are starting to mount, also including at quarterback. Wilks is well-liked in the locker room but that won’t go far, especially considering that wasn’t that big of an issue with Rhule. 

There are a couple of paths the team could take. This draft class is much better than this past year’s group, with at least two legitimate first-round prospects so far in Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young. If Carolina closes out the No. 1 pick, Alabama DE Will Anderson also becomes a consideration as someone who has drawn a lot of comparisons so far to Von Miller. 

If the Panthers think Stroud, Young or someone else has realistic potential as franchise starters, they have to pull the trigger, even over Anderson. The team just spent a third-round pick on Corral but he’s out for the season with a Lisfranc injury and almost a complete wildcard. He shouldn’t stop the Panthers from drafting a quarterback they have a high grade on. 

However, if Carolina has doubts about this class, they could draft Anderson, go the bridge quarterback route again and use the 2023 season to evaluate Corral and try to build with an eye on making a move in 2024, either in the draft or trade market. Veterans like 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Bridgewater and maybe even Giants QB Daniel Jones will be available. If Quinn is the next coach, Cowboys QB Cooper Rush might be in consideration, and Eagles QB Gardner Minshew is set to reach unrestricted free agency for the first time in 2023. 

None of these options sound super inspiring, so I have a hunch Carolina will lean toward the draft and the hope that brings the fanbase. Hopefully they’re able to give the rookie a decent supporting cast. The offensive coaching staff needs to be overhauled, and the skill positions too. Tight end and wide receiver are major needs for 2023, and if they trade McCaffrey they’ll obviously need a new running back. On defense, the big needs will be linebacker and another pass rusher to go across from Burns, as well as potentially another starting safety and nickel defender. 

There are definitely some pieces to work with for the next head coach in Carolina, even if the team as a whole is playing down to its talent level. Push the right buttons and there could be a massive turnaround in store. But in the end, it’ll really come down to the quarterback position and getting that right. 

This Week In Football

  • Wrapping up the last loose threads with the Panthers, it was almost more surprising to me to see DC Phil Snow jettisoned along with Rhule than it was to see Rhule fired. Upon reflection, it made more sense, as Snow has stuck with Rhule through multiple coaching stops and likely will follow him to his next job as well. But it also gives interim HC Steve Wilks a chance to put his stamp on the defense and show what he can do in his second chance as a head coach. The deck is already stacked against him, as the Panthers are down to their third-string quarterback P.J. Walker after Mayfield picked up a high ankle sprain in Week 5. Walker is 2-0 in his career but has not played particularly well in those starts. 
  • We’re about a month away from veteran WR Odell Beckham Jr. being healthy enough to sign with a team and practice but the news cycle is already starting to ramp up in anticipation of the bidding war, as Beckham could be a key swing factor in how the season plays out down the stretch just like last year. The Rams are still the perceived leaders but it didn’t help that they apparently lowballed Beckham this offseason. He was looking for eight figures on a multi-year deal after showing he still had some ball left in the tank, but the Rams clearly haven’t been willing to pony that up — opening the door for a plethora of other teams. 
  • We were in a bit of a trade drought until the Browns came through for us and swung a deal for Falcons LB Deion Jones. Atlanta got just a late-round pick swap in 2024, but considering Jones seemed to be on the verge of being cut as recently as August, hasn’t played for the Falcons this season and in all likelihood was going to ride out the season on injured reserve, it’s not a bad return. On the flip side, it shows just how desperate the Browns are getting to shore up their defense. Jones has not played well the past two seasons, though we’ve seen some really great stuff from him in the past and he’ll certainly be motivated in what’s now a prove-it situation with the Browns. 
  • The trade deadline is about three weeks away and we should start to see more news along that front pop up. One situation to monitor in Washington is with CB William Jackson, who was a high-priced free agent addition just last offseason. It has not been a good fit, and Jackson was just benched with a “back injury.” He wants a fresh start with a new team and the Commanders would love to accommodate him. Unfortunately, his $10 million 2022 compensation will be a massive roadblock to a deal getting done. The Browns are the only team with more than that in available cap space right now, so Washington will have to eat most of what Jackson is due just to get a late-round pick out of the situation. 
  • Raiders WR Davante Adams had a bad Monday night with another close loss, this time to the Chiefs, and unfortunately for Adams, he took out his frustration on a passing cameraman who encroached on his space as Adams was walking into the tunnel to exit the field. The incident is being reviewed by the league for a fine and a potential suspension, and the cameraman filed a police report that resulted in a citation for Adams and is probably the precursor to some kind of lawsuit. Yay America. 
  • We lead off the weekly casualty report with Broncos QB Russell Wilson, who is dealing with a shoulder strain similar to what held back Cowboys QB Dak Prescott last season. The injury probably contributed to Denver’s offensive woes last Thursday that were on display in primetime for the football-watching world to see, but honestly the problems with the Broncos’ offense and Wilson go beyond that. It certainly won’t help in their quest to get back on track, though. Other notable boo-boos:
    • Ravens S Marcus Williams dislocated his wrist and went on injured reserve. He should be back later this season but it’s a blow to a Baltimore secondary that has been leaky to start the season. 
    • Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny was running away with his chance to finally be the starter. But like they have so often throughout his career, injuries struck again. Pennu suffered a fractured fibula and will miss the remainder of the season. He’s due to be a free agent this offseason but should be healed by then. 
    • Steelers OLB T.J. Watt suffered a setback of sorts, but not to his pectoral injury that he’s rehabbing. Watt elected to have his knee scope after suffering a preseason injury, and it will extend his absence by another couple of weeks into Week 10.
    • The 49ers defense that’s been so outstanding this season took a hit when starting CB Emmanuel Moseley went down with a torn ACL — the same game that he had an interception returned for a touchdown in a win against the Panthers. San Francisco will hope either their younger corners or veteran Jason Verrett, coming off an ACL tear of his own, will be able to patch the hole. 
    • Ironically the Dolphins were the first team to experience the consequences of the league’s revamped concussion protocols when QB Teddy Bridgewater was ruled out by the spotter and put in the concussion protocol after taking a hit early in Miami’s Week 5 loss to the Jets. Bridgewater’s reaction to the hit didn’t seem as obvious as either of QB Tua Tagovailoa’s episodes, and the Dolphins beat has been pitching a fit. But is it really so bad to err on the side of caution if it helps avoid scenes like what we saw two Thursdays ago?

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

Two weeks old but still illuminating and not in a good way…

Great read. James Dator has covered the Panthers for a long time at SB Nation and has a good finger on the puse of the fanbase. He hits the nail on the head re: Tepper here. It’s not unprecedented for owners to improve on the job. It can take decades though…

A thought I’ve had the last couple of weeks building off the NFL data showing scoring is down: how many quarterbacks can you say are actually playing well right now? Ten? Twelve? There are plenty of big names not putting up big production right now…

One of those is Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, which combined with a shaky defense, that some people with German last names who write for NFL Trade Rumors thought could be top five, has Green Bay in a tenuous position. The Ringer’s Ben Solak has a great dive into what ails the Pack that’s worth your time. Good news: it’s fixable…

One surprising quarterback playing well: Geno Smith. Dude is passing the eye test with flying colors…

Dot…

Like this is legitimately impressive, high degree of difficulty quarterbacking. Five weeks is a small sample but we are fast approaching having to consider him as another Ryan Tannehill, only with an even more unlikely rise…

Another way of showing how stratified quarterbacking is in the league right now, albeit through a fantasy football lens…

As a side note, this has potentially HUGE implications for the way a lot of people have been playing fantasy football for years, if the trend continues…

My jaw dropped watching this live, because I still don’t understand the physics of how that ball zipped out of there. Unfortunately this angle doesn’t quite do it justice, and we’ve all become a little spoiled by how many ridiculous things Mahomes does regularly…

Speaking of that game, I don’t think it’s a coincidence the Raiders’ best games this season have come against AFC West opponents, even if they’re just 1-2 in the division so far. They clearly built with a formula to succeed in the division in mind, including how they built their pass-rushing duo on defense and the ability to play bully ball and keep away on offense…

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