2023 Team Needs: Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings

February 20, 2023

Thanks for checking out our 2023 Team Needs previews. Consider this a primer for what each team will look to accomplish this offseason and the resources they have to work with.

A couple of notes. Cap space projections are from Over The Cap and based on a salary cap of $224.8 million. It’s also using OTC’s effective cap space, which takes into account what teams have to budget to sign their rookies and fill out the offseason 51-man roster.

Compensatory picks are from OTC’s projections, which are historically the most accurate in the industry. Their methodology is outlined here. The comp picks awarded through the NFL’s minority hiring incentive program have also been accounted for.

A note on the draft order: because the Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick for tampering, the slotting for the picks afterward has been impacted. For instance, the Steelers have the first pick in the second round from the Bears which normally would be No. 33 overall. Instead, it’s No. 32. Keep that in mind for every pick after No. 20.

Bears

Projected Cap Space: $85,603,649

Draft Picks: 8

1st (No. 1)
2nd (No. 53, from BAL)
3rd (No. 64)
4th (No. 103)
4th (No. 133, from PHI)
5th (No. 137)
5th (No. 150, from NE)
7th (No. 220)

Notable Free Agents: RB David Montgomery, OT Riley Reiff, LB Nicholas Morrow, C Sam Mustipher (RFA), WR Byron Pringle, DL Angelo Blackson, DL Mike Pennel, WR N’Keal Harry

Biggest Needs:

1 – Defensive line

The Bears didn’t luck into the No. 1 pick. They earned it with a poor roster on both sides of the ball, especially along the line of scrimmage. After trading DEs Robert Quinn and Khalil Mack, Chicago had no one left who could really get after the quarterback. They also missed nabbing their impact pass-rushing defensive tackle when DT Larry Ogunjobi failed his physical and they voided their free-agent deal with him. They could get either Georgia DT Jalen Carter or Alabama DE Will Anderson with the top pick (or in a slight trade down) to address their front but expect them to double and triple dip with other picks and the bevy of cap space they have available.

2 – Offensive line

This group isn’t in as dire straights as the defensive line, as Chicago found a pair of potential keepers in LT Braxton Jones and G Teven Jenkins. The rest of the unit is up in the air, however, and the Bears will probably be busy. Starting G Cody Whitehair is a strong candidate to be released and the team needs to find a starting right tackle. They could also stand to upgrade at center, and while Jones and Jenkins showed some promise, neither is above having to compete for their starting spot as the Bears head into 2023.

3 – Wide receiver

Chicago made some efforts to address this position at the trade deadline last year with the acquisition of WR Chase Claypool, looking ahead and not seeing a promising group of receivers available in either free agency or the draft. The Bears’ ideal scenario would involve Claypool, WR Darnell Mooney and 2022 third-round WR Velus Jones becoming a competent trio for QB Justin Fields in his third season. But in addition to that group being inconsistent so far, Claypool and Mooney are in contract years, so the Bears should keep swinging here.

Lions

Projected Cap Space: $1,825,474

Draft Picks: 8

1st (No. 6, from LAR)
1st (No. 18)
2nd (No. 48)
2nd (No. 55, from MIN)
3rd (No. 81)
5th (No. 154)
6th (No. 183, from DEN)
6th (No. 194)

Notable Free Agents: WR DJ Chark, RB Jamaal Williams, LB Alex Anzalone, DE John Cominsky, OL Evan Brown, CB Amani Oruwariye, CB Will Harris, S DeShon Elliott, DT Isaiah Buggs

Biggest Needs:

1 – Cornerback

Improving on defense is the top priority for Detroit this offseason, as they were historically bad on that side of the ball for a good portion of the season. The best way to do that is in the secondary, where the Lions finally got a healthy season out of CB Jeff Okudah, but still have questions about him and the rest of the group.

2 – Linebacker

While the Lions have invested a fair amount along the defensive line in terms of money and draft picks, they haven’t done the same at linebacker. If they’re banking on young players improving up front and in the secondary, it makes sense to target linebacker as a way to raise the floor for their defense. Anzalone has been their best linebacker, which leaves a lot of room to get better even if they bring him back as veteran insurance. They’ve got some interesting youngsters in Malcolm Rodriguez and Derrick Barnes but neither has shown a high enough ceiling yet to stop Detroit from bringing in more help here.

3 – Right guard

Detroit’s offense is in pretty good shape overall. They could look at a higher-upside quarterback if the opportunity presents itself, and could use more depth at running back. Tight end seems like a big hole but they didn’t really skip a beat after trading TE T.J. Hockenson, so perhaps the system can be just . The real glaring hole is going to be at right guard, as that position was a black hole all season with various players shuttling in and out following the injury to Halapoulivaati Vaitai. He’s likely a cap casualty, which gives the Lions a chance to solidify a front five that could be one of the best in football.

Packers

Projected Cap Space: –$8,573,077

Draft Picks: 11

1st (No. 15)
2nd (No. 45)
3rd (No. 78)
4th (No. 116)
5th (No. 151)
5th (No. 171, comp)
7th (No. 234)
7th (No. 237, from DET)
7th (No. 244, from JAX)
7th (No. 256, comp)
7th (No. 259, comp)

Notable Free Agents: S Adrian Amos, WR Allen Lazard, TE Robert Tonyan, OT Yosh Nijman (RFA), CB Keisean Nixon, DL Jarran Reed, WR Randall Cobb, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Mason Crosby, DL Dean Lowry, LB Krys Barnes, S Rudy Ford

Biggest Needs:

1 – Safety

The quarterback situation has sucked up a lot of oxygen regarding the Packers’ offseason so far, but one way or another Green Bay knows who is going to be behind center in 2023. There’s more work to be done in other areas after a surprising step back in 2022. Top of the list is safety. It does not seem like they’ll be able to re-sign Amos unless he gives the team a sweetheart deal, and former first-round S Darnell Savage struggled in 2022. He’s locked onto the roster because the Packers already picked up his fifth-year option but it’s looking more and more likely that if Savage ever puts it all together, it won’t be in Green Bay. That leaves the team in need of at least one and probably two new safeties.

2 – Tight end

If QB Aaron Rodgers is back in 2023, Lewis probably is too on a veteran minimum deal. There’s a decent chance the Packers can re-sign Tonyan, too. But while the fanbase continues to clamor for an upgrade at receiver, it’s far more likely the front office sees getting a long-term solution at tight end in the fold as a higher priority, especially because the draft class is so strong.

3 – Edge rusher

Green Bay has a solid starting duo in Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, and 2022 fifth-rounder Kingsley Enagbare looks like a potential find as a third rusher who can competently give them a breather. The catch is Gary is recovering from a torn ACL and Smith is on the wrong side of 30. Green Bay needs someone who can pick up any slack as Gary gets back to full strength in the short term and who can replace Smith down the road. And of course, it never hurts to have too many good pass rushers.

Vikings

Projected Cap Space: -$25,777,310

Draft Picks: 5

1st (No. 23)
3rd (No. 87)
4th (No. 119, from DET)
5th (No. 160)
5th (No. 177, comp)

Notable Free Agents: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, CB Patrick Peterson, C Garrett Bradbury, TE Irv Smith Jr., RB Alexander Mattison, CB Duke Shelley, K Greg Joseph, CB Chandon Sullivan, OT Oli Udoh

Biggest Needs:

1 – Cornerback

The Vikings spent a couple of picks on young corners to try and get ahead of this need last offseason. Unfortunately, both dealt with serious injury issues and remain unknown quantities. Meanwhile, Peterson and Sullivan are slated for free agency as well as Shelley, who came on strong as a nickel down the stretch. Figuring out what to do here will be key for the Vikings, including whether to re-sign Peterson or go with a different veteran presence, and whether to invest more draft resources on the back end. New DC Brian Flores figures to have significant input as well. In the past, he’s run a system that’s far more aggressive and man coverage-heavy than what the Vikings ran last season.

2 – Edge rusher

Minnesota has bookend edge rushers who both hit double-digit sacks in 2022; Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith. But both face somewhat uncertain futures. Smith recorded nearly all of his production in the first half of the season, fading hard in the second. The 30-year-old’s contract has an out to where the Vikings could save more than $13 million by cutting him in 2023. As for Hunter, the 2023 season is the final year of his deal, and he won’t turn 29 until October. He’ll have a chance to cash in on a third contract at the age many players are looking for their second deal, but his injury history might give the Vikings pause when it comes to forking over another pile of cash. If Minnesota cuts Smith, they need another impact rusher, unless they’re going to rely on Flores’ blitz schemes. This is also a position the team could spend a high pick on with an eye toward the future.

3 – Running back

Bradbury isn’t under contract for 2023, and normally OL > RB. But the Vikings could possibly be down two players in the backfield in the near future. Mattison, who has done a heck of an impression of star RB Dalvin Cook when he’s been pressed into duty due to injury, is a pending free agent. Cook is also turning 28 and the Vikings do have an out in his deal they could take if they’re inclined to go cheaper at the position. The cap savings wouldn’t be enormous, so it still feels like it could go either way. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Vikings add a relatively big name at some point this offseason, though, as a post-Cook future seems to be getting closer and closer.