2025 NFL Head Coaching Matchmaker

I had a whole introduction written about how this might be a more sleepy hiring cycle when the Raiders threw a curveball and fired HC Antonio Pierce on Tuesday — the day after he conducted his end-of-season presser in a Las Vegas starter jacket and projected confidence that he’d be back in 2025. 

That makes for six vacancies, with the possibility of a seventh depending on whatever happens down in Dallas with HC Mike McCarthy’s expiring contract. That’s not as much movement as some in the coaching rumor mill predicted a few weeks ago — with whispers of nine or 10 vacancies looming — but it’s still a healthy amount of turnover. And even though Bill Belichick didn’t even bother waiting for the NFL coaching cycle, opting out of the whole deal and jumping for a college head coaching job at North Carolina, there are still some big-name candidates on the market. 

As the process kicks into gear this week, here’s a look at our best guess at the best team-coach fits this hiring cycle. You can find all the potential candidates teams have interviewed or requested interviews with below:

• 2025 NFL Head Coach & GM Tracker

Chicago Bears: Vikings DC Brian Flores

The Bears are casting a wide net for their search, something GM Ryan Poles boasted about this week in fact, but there are a handful of candidates who make more sense than others in their interview list. Flores ranks near the top, and not just because he should be one of the top candidates in this year’s cycle. 

The Bears have been loud about their belief that they have the best vacancy this year, citing a solid roster and the presence of 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams. Relative to Raiders, Jets or Saints, the Bears are more attractive, but there are real problems they’ll have to reckon with for prospective candidates, chief among them the reporting structure under owner and CEO George McCaskey. In the past two seasons, team president Kevin Warren, hired ostensibly to help with the pursuit of a new stadium, has not wielded his influence solely on the business side of the building. Chicago claims Poles is leading the search but it’s clear Warren has a major say in football operations. The ingredients of a power struggle are in place. 

Flores, however, has notable connections to both men. He was teammates with Poles when the two played together at Boston College in the early 2000s, and both cut their teeth in the Belichick system. Warren worked for the Vikings at one point before arriving in Chicago, and he’s leaned on connections in the building who have raved to him about Flores. If either Poles or Warren were to be ousted in the next year or two, Flores would still have relational capital in the building. 

The hire would make sense for several football-related reasons as well. Flores is an established defensive coach whose scheme has taken opponents by storm this season. No other team is running the Flores defense, so the Bears not only would gain a schematic advantage on one side of the ball but would weaken one of their top division rivals in the process. 

While his time in Miami — more on that later — didn’t end well, he has been one of the most successful Belichick acolytes by far at implementing a physical, hard-nosed culture. Some organizations just need to embody the identity of the city they’re located in, and Flores would fit not just on the field but in the city of Chicago. Williams was practically begging for hard coaching at points this season, and Flores will certainly raise the standard for players who felt like that was an issue in 2024. 

Of course, Flores will need to show he’s learned lessons about how he treated people in Miami. He was fired after a 10-win season because he’d burned so many bridges in the building, including with QB Tua Tagovailoa. The Bears can’t afford for that to happen with Williams, and Flores can’t afford to make the same mistake twice either if he wants to be a successful head coach. 

This is also why I don’t think Flores is necessarily Chicago’s top choice for the job. In an ideal world, I think the Bears would love to steal Lions OC Ben Johnson from Detroit and let him try and turn Williams into one of the top quarterbacks in football. The vision of what things look like for Williams under Johnson is so much clearer than Flores, who will have to present a compelling plan for his offensive coaching staff. 

But those alignment questions raised earlier about the Bears’ front office setup loom large with Johnson, who has pulled his name out in two consecutive coaching cycles because things didn’t feel right. He is interviewing virtually with the Bears this weekend, signaling he has at least some level of interest, but I think it’s fair to doubt how comfortable Johnson would be taking the Bears’ job. If Chicago can’t land Johnson, McCarthy is another interesting candidate with a more established background on offense than Flores. It’s far from guaranteed he’s available, though. 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Ravens OC Todd Monken

After firing HC Doug Pederson, Jaguars owner Shad Khan gave a press conference and talked about what he thought the team needed in its next head coaching hire. 

“Right now, we are the most predictable team on both sides of the ball,” Khan said via SI.com’s John Shipley. “Football, to win, deception is a big part of it. Unpredictability. If you know exactly what we’re going to do on offense or defense, you’d better have the 22 best players to help us win a football game. So, being unpredictable is I think modern football, and we have to be able to show that on the field.”

Not surprisingly, Lions OC Ben Johnson and Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury are two of the names frequently mentioned as high on the team’s wish list, and their list of official interview requests included creative play-callers like Buccaneers OC Liam Coen and Eagles OC Kellen Moore. There was some buzz at the end of the regular season that Jacksonville would be a perfect fit for Johnson, up until Khan elected to retain GM Trent Baalke and turn this into one of the messiest situations of this coaching cycle. 

Baalke has a reputation in league circles for being a master office politician who can skirt blame and pin it on others. This will be the third coaching search in Jacksonville that Baalke has led and his record since taking over is 25-43. Not many GMs would have that long of a leash but Khan appears to be fiercely in Baalke’s corner, even though it’s clear his presence makes this vacancy less attractive for the top candidates. 

That’s why until there’s reporting to the contrary, I have a hard time projecting any coach with real options landing in Jacksonville. That means no Johnson, no Kingsbury, probably not even Coen. Most coaches get one or two shots maximum to be a head coach, and having Baalke tank one of them to save his job would be unfortunate. 

Still, there are only 32 head coaching jobs. While some coaches can afford to slow-play the market, others have to strike while the iron is hot and look to overcome less-than-ideal circumstances because the buzz is fleeting at the top of the profession. All it takes is one bad year. 

That’s why I think Monken and Moore might be more likely than other candidates to ultimately land the Jaguars’ head coaching job. Both check the creative box Khan is looking for, and both have established resumes on the offensive side of the ball to try and bring the best out of QB Trevor Lawrence. Moore has been a play-caller since 2019 and has been getting head coaching interviews for about that long, but no one has taken the plunge on the 35-year-old former Boise State passer yet. 

Monken is 58 and his age is probably a big reason he hasn’t gotten a shot as an NFL head coach yet. But he’s compiled a notable record as a play-caller at multiple stops, including Tampa Bay, Georgia and now Baltimore where he’s coordinated one of the league’s most dangerous and explosive offenses. He also has head coach experience from three years at Southern Miss and had a stint as the Jaguars WR coach from 2007-2010. 

I could see both landing this job but to me, Monken feels like a slightly better bet given his experience, which I think Khan will appreciate. 

New York Jets: Texans OC Bobby Slowik

The breadcrumbs from the Jets’ beat indicate the top two options for New York are former Titans HC Mike Vrabel and Lions DC Aaron Glenn. However, I have serious reservations about the Jets’ ability to land either coach. There’s a lot of heat between Vrabel and the Patriots, while the Jets will have stiff competition to land Glenn. Every team with a vacancy has requested to interview him, and while the Jets probably have a better shot than a lot of them given Glenn’s history as a player in New York, it’s hard to say they’re the best option. 

That leaves the Jets in an interesting place without a clear-cut frontrunner among the remaining candidates. The results of their GM search will probably inform this process — they’re running the GM search concurrently with the coaching search but seem to prefer to hire a GM first. A pairing could become obvious once the GM is hired, someone like Flores and Viking exec Ryan Grigson or a Chiefs duo of assistant GM Mike Borgonzi/OC Matt Nagy. Jets owner Woody Johnson is another variable, both due to his preferences and what prospective candidates think of his less-than-stellar reputation. 

There are two ways I think this could go. New York seems to be prioritizing experience in its interview lists so far and could want to avoid hiring both a first-time head coach and first-time GM. Assuming Johnson’s reputation and the lack of a clear quarterback solution boxes the Jets out of the top options, the options that stand out are Nagy, Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo and Broncos DC Vance Joseph. None of them can necessarily afford to be picky about the head coaching opportunities coming their way. 

If the Jets get an experienced GM to help a first-time head coach, Slowik and Vikings QB coach Josh McCown are two candidates that stand out. The Jets could be in a position where they need to zig while the NFL is zagging, either going after a post-hype candidate like Slowik — who had a tough second season but still is a young play-caller from the Shanahan tree — or a position coach like McCown who draws rave reviews but maybe isn’t viewed as experienced enough to be a head coach. 

Slowik feels more likely than McCown, though he is held in high regard in the Jets’ building from his playing days. Johnson is a big fan of the Shanahan coaching tree and last year Slowik looked like the next big sprout off that branch. He has an analytics background after working at PFF and is a football lifer as the son of former longtime coach Bob Slowik. He was even born in New Jersey while his dad coached at Rutgers, though they didn’t stay long. A more compelling connection is his overlap with Commanders RB coach Anthony Lynn for a year in San Francisco. Lynn reportedly has some fans in the Jets’ building, and would be a great sounding board for a coach like Slowik. 

New England Patriots: Former Titans HC Mike Vrabel

Right now, it feels like Vrabel to the Patriots is about as close of a lock as it gets in the NFL. The deal isn’t done yet and things change quickly in the NFL, but there’s tons and tons of momentum for this particular pairing. Consider: 

• Vrabel loves New England, and the feeling is mutual. His warm reception and emotional speech during his induction into the Patriots Hall of Fame in 2023 was actually cited as a factor in why the Titans soured on him. 
• Patriots owner Robert Kraft moved on from his hand-picked replacement for the greatest coach of all time who he’d carved out a unique succession plan to enable after just one year. Sure, former Patriots HC Jerod Mayo looked out of his depth and didn’t inspire a lot of confidence, but Kraft knew Mayo would need time to develop. The availability of a proven alternative like Vrabel likely made the decision easier. 
• The widespread expectation from people in New England and all around the NFL is that Vrabel is the top target. 

Vrabel has no constraints on when he can interview since he’s not employed by an NFL team currently, so he’s also available to be hired quicker. Any team that hires him has to satisfy the Rooney Rule, mandating two in-person interviews with minority candidates. The soonest candidates under contract with NFL teams can be interviewed in person is January 20. 

But the Patriots interviewed former NFL assistants Byron Leftwich and Pep Hamilton in person on Tuesday, satisfying the Rooney Rule. They could hire Vrabel as soon as his interview today is completed — in fact, there’s a chance that by the time you’re reading this, Vrabel is already in New England. 

At this point, if Vrabel wasn’t hired by the Patriots it would be the biggest surprise of this coaching cycle and the biggest rug pull since Josh McDaniels spurned the Colts. 

Las Vegas Raiders: Former Seahawks HC Pete Carroll

The Raiders are the team I probably have the worst read on, partially because they’re the last team to enter the coaching cycle and their candidate list is still taking shape. Raiders owner Mark Davis is also a bit of a wildcard, just consider that one of the first candidates linked to the vacancy was Belichick merely weeks after he took the leap to college football. 

Belichick, through intermediaries, shot down the rumor and indicated he’s staying at North Carolina, but the rumor is also an example of how minority owner Tom Brady is going to have a major impact on the direction of the franchise going forward. If the Patriots and Vrabel weren’t so hot and heavy, he’d be an option for the Raiders. Flores is another interesting candidate but he might have better fits elsewhere. 

Another interesting data point to consider is Davis’ hiring history, which is robust as he’s cycled through six coaches (not including interims) since taking over the franchise in 2011: 

• Hue Jackson
• Dennis Allen
• Jack Del Rio
• Jon Gruden
• Josh McDaniels
• Antonio Pierce

There’s a mix here of coaches with experience vs first-timers and backgrounds on offense vs defense. But the thread through all is a certain disciplinarian streak, real or projected. Davis loves a strongman coach. Flores fits the bill but if he’s not available, Carroll could be an interesting alternative. 

Carroll is more high-energy and positive reinforcement-oriented than the coaches Davis has gravitated to in the past. He has a resume that will be impossible for Davis to ignore, however, and can win over the locker room the same way Pierce did. After getting forced out of Seattle, Carroll is looking to return to the sidelines and the Raiders could present one of his only opportunities to do so. He’d get to remain on the West Coast and Carroll’s ability to build a solid team without premium investments at quarterback should especially stick out to Davis. 

UPDATE:

The Raiders threw another wrench into things on Thursday by firing GM Tom Telesco out of the blue. There are two immediate takeaways: the first being that Davis is really living down to his reputation with how he’s handled these decisions. Nothing says organizational competency like piecemeal firing the coach and GM you hired just a year before. 

The second is that this actually might end up working out in the end for Las Vegas. The Raiders now have something just one other team can offer in this year’s hiring cycle — a clean slate. And they’re currently the only team on Lions OC Ben Johnson‘s slate of interviews who can say that. The Raiders will have to pitch Johnson on a plan to acquire a quarterback and on why he should want to work for Davis, but with Brady in the fold, don’t discount Las Vegas’ chances of landing Johnson. 

New Orleans Saints: Lions DC Aaron Glenn

I would go so far as to call Glenn the only other lock to get a head coaching job this year outside of Vrabel — and that includes his colleague in Detroit, Johnson, who might not find the right match this year. Glenn has been asked to interview by every single team with a vacancy and he could have his pick of any job outside of New England. 

This is where his connection with the Saints stands out. Glenn grew up in Houston, a similar region, and spent the last season of his career in New Orleans before returning as a DB coach for five years from 2016-2020. He forged strong connections in the building and made a positive impression on GM Mickey Loomis. While the Bears have a clearer outlook at quarterback and while the Jets would be a return to the team that drafted him and employed him for the first seven years of his career, the pull of New Orleans should not be dismissed. 

Plenty of people would disagree, but I also think the Saints’ vacancy is better than the Jets’ job and there’s an argument to rank it ahead of Chicago. If we posit that a team is only as good as its owner, then Saints owner Gayle Benson stands out compared to the McCaskey family and Woody/Brick Johnson. She’s more engaged and supportive than the McCaskey’s without being as meddlesome and impulsive as the Johnson’s. The Saints have hit some hard times but overall the organization has run better than Chicago and New York over the past two decades. The cap situation and aging roster are fair critiques, but there’s still talent on the team and the books clear up dramatically after 2025. There’s potential here for the right candidate in an underwhelming NFC South. 

Should the Saints miss out on Glenn, Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy is an intriguing alternative. His contract with the Cowboys expires in less than a week, freeing him to go elsewhere if he wants. McCarthy was once the offensive coordinator for the Saints and has a relationship with Loomis, a key factor for candidates this year as the GM is still largely calling the shots in New Orleans. 

The Dallas Dilemma

Very few coaches make it to the end of their contract, either because they are fired or sign extensions. But Cowboys owner Jerry Jones does business in his own way and this will be the third straight coaching contract he’s let play out to the end. A couple of months ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion McCarthy would be allowed to walk after failing to make the playoffs in a year that seemed like he needed to make a run. After all, the only thing missing from the past three years of 12-win seasons was sustained playoff success. 

Yet now not only is it perfectly plausible that the Cowboys could retain McCarthy, but they could have competition for his services. McCarthy would make sense for the Bears and Saints and their particular situations, and there’s a groundswell of support for him in the Cowboys’ building to remain. Much will depend on what McCarthy wants and how big of a commitment the Cowboys are willing to make. McCarthy’s contract expires on January 14, at which point there are no restrictions for him or any of his staff on interviews. 

Should the Cowboys lose McCarthy, it’d be interesting to see how Dallas would pivot. The Cowboys’ job would be one of the better ones in this cycle despite the headaches of working for Jones, as the roster has a lot of talent, including QB Dak Prescott, and the power of the Cowboys’ brand is real. It’s quite possible they could land a top candidate like Lions OC Ben Johnson. Another name to know is Eagles OC Kellen Moore, who made a big impression on Jones as Dallas’ offensive coordinator for several years.