Five Risers & Five Fallers From The 2024 NFL Scouting Combine

The NFL Combine is one of the most influential times of the year for NFL teams and prospects. Not only are the measurables and athletic testing important for the prospects, but it’s also a chance for teams to meet with and interview players, get valuable medical information and the NFL’s single biggest networking event. It’s a truly wonderful time of year.

For the players, the Combine is a chance to demonstrate their athletic strengths and highlight their skills in drills. With that opportunity comes a risk, however, as a poor showing can have catastrophic consequences on their draft stock. Every year, we see players rise and fall on draft boards based on Combine performances. Last year, we saw players like QB Anthony Richardson, WR Zay Flowers and OT Blake Freeland light up the Combine while players like Kayshon Boutte and Andre Carter II disappointed. This influenced where those players were drafted, highlighting the importance of this event.

The 2024 Combine will cause its share of movement. Without further ado, let’s get into some post-Combine risers and fallers:

Risers:

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

From the end of the college football season through the Combine, no player has had a better pre-draft process than Mitchell. After dominating the individual drills at the Senior Bowl, Mitchell didn’t come to the Combine with much to prove. Even so, he outperformed expectations, posting a 4.33 40-yard dash and excellent numbers for cornerbacks in both the broad jump and vertical.

Measuring at 6’0” and 195 lbs, Mitchell has ideal size and length for an NFL corner. In college, he played almost exclusively in deep off-coverage, often in zone. This allowed him to best use his route-reading skills and keep his eyes on the quarterback. At the Senior Bowl, he proved his talents in press-man coverage, shutting down nearly every receiver he lined up against. At the Combine, he put some hard numbers to his obvious athleticism on film.

Mitchell is my CB1 and has a real chance to be the first cornerback taken in April’s draft. He’s likely competing with Clemson’s Nate Wiggins and Alabama’s Terrion Arnold for the honor. Between his Senior Bowl and Combine performances, Mitchell has risen from a Round 2 player to a top-20 lock and will be an impact player for whichever team calls his name on draft day.

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

Mims is a long, athletic tackle who came into the Combine with something to prove. With only eight starts to his name, having played sparingly before 2023 and missing time this past season due to injury, inexperience is the name of the game with Mims. On tape, he’s clearly raw, but his talent stands out. For such a young player with so little starting experience, it was very important for Mims to show well in the athletic testing and in his measurements.

Just based on the measurables alone, Mims had a fantastic week. Clocking in at 6’8” and 340 lbs with 36 1/8” arms, Mims locked in his first-round status with these numbers. All three put him in the 95^th percentile or better for offensive tackles. The athletic testing was a bit more of a mixed bag, with some below-average performances, but he did well in the 40-yard dash and broad jump. He is billed on the strengths of his raw tools, and he proved those tools are on an elite level.

Mims is my OT4 in this class. If a team is looking for a dependable, Day 1 starter, Mims may not be their guy. But if a team can afford to be patient, they’ll be pleased with the results. Mims has elite length and size for a tackle with easy movement skills. He just needs some seasoning and experience.

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

This is a deep class of wide receivers. Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze have separated themselves at the top, but behind them is a group of five or six players all trying to stand out and hear their names called in Round 1. Mitchell demolished the Combine, showcasing his elite athleticism and helping himself stand out among that group.

A transfer from Georgia, Mitchell joined the Longhorns in 2023, adding to a loaded group of receivers that included Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington. Mitchell was the most consistent downfield performer of the group, routinely beating both press and zone coverages with his blend of size and speed. Mitchell came to the Combine and left no doubt who the most athletic participating receiver was, posting a 4.34 40-time, 39.5” vertical and 11’ 4” broad jump — all elite numbers.

Mitchell joins a crowded group of receivers who could all be picked from the middle of Round 1 to the middle of Round 2, depending on the individual preferences of the teams selecting receivers in that range. He stands out for his top-notch athleticism and body control. He’s my WR4 and has a chance to be selected that high, if his Combine performance is any indication.

Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

Despite the Washington offensive line’s consistent struggles this past season, Fautanu was always a bright spot, locking things down at left tackle and protecting QB Michael Penix Jr. Fautanu was expected to move inside to guard at the NFL level, as evaluators had concerns about his foot speed and mirroring ability. His Combine performance was so good, however, that it may cause scouts to reevaluate his tape and reconsider if he can stick at tackle in the NFL.

Fautanu measured at 34 ½” arms, a fantastic number for him that blows past the commonly accepted cutoff of 33” arms for offensive tackles in the NFL. He ran a 5.01-second 40-yard dash and moved smoothly in the drills. He was arguably the most athletic tackle prospect in attendance. He’ll still need to prove he can mirror edge rushers in the NFL, but it’s no longer a foregone conclusion that he’ll slide inside to guard once he enters the league.

Fautanu was a first-round prospect as an interior offensive line prospect. Now that tackle may be his actual home on the offensive line — instead of just a spot he moonlights occasionally — it should push him higher up draft boards. Fautanu is an even stronger candidate to go in the top 20 come draft day.

Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State

An undersized defensive tackle from Florida State by way of Western Michigan, Fiske exploded onto the scene at the Combine. Dominating the testing with a 4.78-second 40-yard dash, 33.5” vertical jump, and 9’ 9” broad jump — all of which led all DTs at the Combine — Fiske pushed his name further up draft boards.

Fiske’s strengths surround his speed and explosiveness off the snap. He has elite burst and get-off and uses that to get into the chests of opposing linemen to nullify their leverage. He can shoot gaps quickly, particularly in run defense, and has blown up plenty of plays with his active, disruptive hands.

Fiske is undeniably undersized for the position, with short arms. As a result, he can get out-leveraged and struggles against double-teams. Paired with a bigger defensive tackle, however, he can use his quickness and disruptiveness to cause havoc on the interior. His explosive numbers at the Combine have pushed him into the fringe Round 1 conversation.

Fallers:

Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

Coleman is a tough player to evaluate. Coming off an impressive season at Michigan State, Coleman entered the 2023 season with high expectations after transferring to Florida State. He exploded on opening weekend, shredding the LSU secondary in primetime, and vaulting himself into the first-round discussion. Unfortunately, the rest of his season did not live up to those high marks. With solid but unexemplary college production and some concerning traits on film, Coleman needed to have a good Combine to restore faith in his athleticism and potential.

Coleman’s 4.61 40-yard dash time was the slowest of all receivers in attendance. That’s not good, though it’s not disqualifying either, as there have been some successful NFL receivers with similar 40 times. He did hit 20 mph in the gauntlet drill later that afternoon, so his on-field speed may be better than the 40 time indicated, as well. His short-area quickness is better than his long speed — he hit a 1.54 10-yard split, which is right in line with many other receivers — and this shows up on film.

Ultimately, Coleman’s Combine performance only confirmed the concerns many evaluators had after watching his tape. He’s a big receiver who thrives in contested catch situations, but is not an advanced route runner and doesn’t generate separation down the field. That’s not a profile that’s typically successful in the NFL. The lack of explosiveness he displayed at the Combine only heightens these negatives. Coleman’s stock seems to have fallen out of the first round to the second day, and he’ll need to prove he can overcome his athletic limitations at the NFL level.

Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri

Rakestraw had been a late riser in this cornerback class, getting some first-round buzz despite missing the Senior Bowl with an injury. Evaluators love his toughness, speed breaking on the ball, and his dedication in run support. This draft has a very deep group of corners, however, with as many as four or five guys fighting for the spots at the back end of the first round. Rakestraw’s disappointing Combine left him a step behind his competition.

When evaluating a player, traits on film can either be confirmed or questioned by the athletic testing numbers from the Combine. If the testing numbers match the tape, it’s confirmation of a player’s limitations. If they conflict, it should trigger a recheck of the tape to reevaluate. For Rakestraw, his lack of top-end speed is evident in his play at Missouri. He’s quick flipping his hips or swatting at the ball but struggles when he needs to turn and run with a receiver. He ran a 4.51 40-yard dash, one of the slower numbers of the corners, strengthening his critics’ claims that he lacks the necessary speed to cover faster receivers in this league.

Rakestraw’s push into the first round took a hit over the weekend, but the fundamentals of his evaluation haven’t changed. He’s still a gritty, hard-nosed player who’s not afraid to make (or take) a big hit. That kind of attitude and willingness to get dirty is what defensive coaches love in cornerbacks, and he’ll still have his fans in NFL circles.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

Throughout most of this draft process, Sanders has been firmly entrenched as the TE2. While Georgia’s Brock Bowers is the far and away TE1, and the only tight end projected to go in Round 1, the gap between Sanders and the rest of the tight end class was pretty significant as well. Sanders has great hands and short-area quickness, able to find soft spots in zones and get upfield for more yardage.

Sanders’ fall is less about anything he did or didn’t do at the Combine and more about the great performances the rest of the class had. Sanders’ 4.69 40-time was slow relative to this crop of tight ends, but certainly not disqualifying for the position. That said, Florida State’s Jaheim Bell, Penn State’s Theo Johnson, and Ohio State’s Cade Stover all had explosive Combine performances that make Sanders’ look worse by comparison.

Coming into the Combine, Sanders was billed as an uber-athletic specimen at tight end, akin to what David Njoku was coming out of Miami. Sanders still has the coveted size and length, but is less athletic than initially perceived, and other tight ends tested extremely well. Sanders is still my TE2 and will likely be the second tight end taken in the 2024 draft, but the gap is closing. He’s in danger of falling out of the second round.

Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

McKinstry is a faller on this list through no fault of his own. During his medical evaluation at the Combine, examiners discovered a Jones’ fracture in his foot, forcing him to sit out of the Combine. For some top players, this wouldn’t be an issue, so long as the injury wasn’t expected to affect them long-term. For McKinstry, he needed to prove some things at the Combine and was unfortunately unable to do so.

Starting all three years at Alabama, including as a true freshman, McKinstry entered the 2023 season as the presumptive top cornerback in this class. He dominated once again this past college football season, but scouts began asking questions about his top speed and overall athleticism. Several corners began passing him on many position ranking lists, and McKinstry needed the Combine to prove these concerns were without merit.

The good news for McKinstry is that he is expected to work out at Alabama’s pro day, so he’ll have his chance then to silence his doubters. McKinstry is my CB3 and has a chance to move up — or down — based on how he tests at his pro day.

Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami

Kinchens came into the Combine jockeying for position in this safety class with players like USC’s Calen Bullock, Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin and Georgia’s Javon Bullard. After his disappointing testing numbers, Kinchens has dropped behind those guys in a weak safety group and may have fallen out of the second round entirely. Already a bit undersized for the safety position, Kinchens really couldn’t afford a poor Combine performance.

Measuring in at 5’11” and 203 lbs, Kinchens ran a 4.65 40-yard dash. His broad and vertical jumps ranked near the bottom of the class as well. Putting out weak speed and explosive numbers as an undersized safety isn’t a recipe for getting drafted highly. Kinchens still has great tape at Miami, but his lack of burst shows up on film, and he has trouble sticking in man-to-man coverage. He should be drafted into a deep zone scheme, and likely lower than he was expected to go before Combine week.