Is This The Beginning Of The End For Anthony Richardson & The Colts?

The Indianapolis Colts shocked the NFL world this week, with the news breaking on Tuesday that Anthony Richardson, the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft, had been benched. Joe Flacco, signed to a one-year deal this offseason, will get the start against Minnesota on Sunday Night Football in Week 9.

Flacco is 39 and clearly not the future at the position for the Colts, which led to a flurry of speculation that Richardson’s time in Indianapolis may be drawing to a close. Colts HC Shane Steichen insisted that isn’t the case, saying that while Richardson’s future will be the story, “we still believe in him.”

Steichen added fuel to the fire later in the week, clarifying that Flacco is the starter, “going forward.” It’s not a one-week situation, though Steichen refused to commit to Flacco through the rest of the season. Coaches and teammates want Richardson back into the lineup at some point — though they also want to win, and Steichen reiterated that Flacco gives them, “the best chance to win right now.”

It is far too early in Richardson’s career to write him off, but it’s fair to say his future is in question for the first time since being drafted. Let’s examine why this decision was made, how Richardson has performed so far in the NFL, and what his future in the league might hold.

Why Richardson was benched

The official word from the Colts is Richardson was benched for his performance, nothing more. Indianapolis is currently 4-4 and in the thick of the AFC playoff race, with a roster that can certainly compete for a wildcard berth and could even overtake Houston in the division should they falter. There’s a real argument that Flacco’s steadier hand guiding a veteran roster is a better formula for the Colts right now to chase postseason success.

We’ll get into Richardson’s play on the field later, but for a variety of reasons, I don’t buy that this was the sole reason for his benching. For starters, the Colts’ offense has performed similarly with Richardson and Flacco under center. Indianapolis’ best offensive performance came in a loss at Jacksonville with Flacco starting, but right behind that was a home loss to Houston starring Richardson. In two games as a starter, Flacco has a point differential of 0, while Richardson is +3 in six starts. The advanced stats are kinder to Flacco, mostly due to his higher completion percentage and fewer turnovers, but the Colts’ offensive output remains similar no matter which quarterback is starting. Richardson’s propensity for big plays offsets his greater volatility on a down-to-down basis.

There was a now-viral moment in the Houston game in Week 8 that may have sealed Richardson’s fate. After orchestrating a drive inside the Texans’ 10-yard line, an offensive penalty set the Colts back significantly. On the ensuing play, Richardson avoided a big sack by chucking a 300-pound defensive tackle off his back and sprinting toward the sideline, though he couldn’t quite escape the linebacker. He began tapping his helmet — signaling he needed to come out of the game — and Flacco came in for the third-down play, a draw to RB Jonathan Taylor.

After the game, Richardson was asked about this play. He said, in part, “…I ain’t gonna lie, I was tired.” Both Steichen and Colts C Ryan Kelly expressed their displeasure with Richardson’s choice to sub himself out of the game. The two men kept their conversations with Richardson private, but both indicated this wasn’t acceptable moving forward, while still publicly backing Richardson as their guy.

While he was understandably tired, so was everyone else on that football field. As the quarterback of the team, the face of the franchise, it was Richardson’s job to stay out there and fight until someone dragged him off the field for his own safety, should it come to that. It was third-and-goal from outside the 20-yard line, Indianapolis was likely running that halfback draw anyway. Richardson should have been the one handing the ball off.

It was a bad look for Richardson, with many analysts expressing their bewilderment at the move. It’s unprecedented. Several current and former players, including his teammate, LB Zaire Franklin, highlighted Richardson’s honesty as a mistake. Honesty is usually an important marker of maturity and leadership, but in this instance, it might have been a little naïve. The consensus among these players was that Richardson should simply have lied: said he felt a little pull in his quad, or that his oblique injury flared up again, and he wanted to get it checked out. Players checking out of a game to get evaluated for injuries happens all the time, and had he said something similar, it wouldn’t have been anything more than a brief question in the post-game press conference. Instead, it was one of the biggest stories in the league after Week 8.

Part of why I don’t believe Richardson was benched solely for performance is that it doesn’t map with the plan for his development. Since he was drafted, Steichen, GM Chris Ballard, and owner Jim Irsay have all stressed the importance of patience with Richardson. He was a raw prospect, one who needed a lot of in-game experience, and early in his career he needed to play through mistakes. Steichen has specifically said, multiple times that the only way for Richardson to get better is through live reps. He doesn’t get those from the bench.

Now, I’m sure performance played a factor — after all, if Richardson was tearing up the league every week, it would be more difficult to bench him. Lackluster, mistake-ridden play, letting his teammates down by tapping out of the game, combined with a team that can win now, is the perfect trifecta to lead to Richardson’s benching.

Richardson was the youngest quarterback to start Week 1 for two years in a row now. His teammates have continually praised him for his leadership and work ethic. Just watch the Colts’ postgame locker room after a subpar Richardson game. He owns up to his mistakes, says he’ll continue working to get better. And his teammates love it, slapping him on the back and verbally reminding him they’ve always got his back. The support Richardson has in this locker room is undeniable.

But it’s understandable they’d feel betrayed after Richardson tapped out of the game to catch his breath. Steichen has to manage the locker room, as well, and he knows they want to win and feel supported. For what it’s worth, everyone on the Colts insists Richardson is still the guy long-term, that they believe in him, and Steichen said he hopes this reset will help Richardson. Both WRs Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs, who put up better numbers with Flacco in the lineup, didn’t seem too thrilled with the move when asked about it this week.

Whatever the true reason is, the reality is Flacco is Indianapolis’ starting quarterback against Minnesota and beyond. If Richardson wants to reclaim his spot, it seems he has some trust he needs to win back.

Richardson’s college scouting report

Before diving into Richardson’s NFL tape, let’s revisit what his scouting report was coming out of Florida. It provides important context for both his NFL career so far and his future in the league. He was billed as a raw but exciting prospect, which was an accurate assessment, but fans at the time had many misconceptions about the player Richardson actually was in college.

It’s no exaggeration to say that Richardson was the most athletic quarterback prospect in NFL history. In terms of physical traits, his lowest score was in his arm length, and that sat in the 81st percentile. At the NFL Combine, Richardson scored in the 99th percentile in every testing drill he participated in, including the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump. He’s often compared to Cam Newton and Josh Allen in both physicality and playstyle, but Richardson came into the league even more physically imposing than they did.

Richardson combined these insane physical traits with a surprisingly advanced understanding of the quarterback position. He was the best prospect in the 2023 draft in sack avoidance, ranking in the 80th percentile among all prospects historically. This speaks to Richardson’s pocket presence and awareness — his size, strength, and elusiveness make him tough to bring down — and he combined that with high-level movement in the pocket. He worked the pocket well to avoid rushers and keep his eyes downfield. Richardson wanted to be a pocket passer.

That pocket presence combined with the best arm in the draft to create an incredibly potent downfield passer. Richardson had 23 big-time throws in college, highlighting his ability to make the wow plays, throws few others can. As a rusher, he was lethal, able to truck linebackers and outrun safeties. The upside with Richardson was tantalizing, as his best-case scenario was one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game.

Richardson’s flaws as a prospect were clear: he was inaccurate and inexperienced. The inaccuracy was easy to see on film. He completed just 54.7 percent of his passes during his three college seasons, and ball placement was a consistent issue.

That inexperience manifested itself in many ways. Richardson started just 13 games at Florida. He simply didn’t have nearly the same ability to read defenses as his fellow draft picks, nor the experience throwing to different route combinations. This led to poor decisions — Richardson’s biggest problem in college. He was turnover-prone and struggled to play with proper anticipation, because he simply hadn’t seen enough.

In summation, Richardson was an extremely high-ceiling quarterback prospect who needed serious seasoning. The team that drafted him needed to understand that. He wasn’t a one-read-and-run player, nor one who couldn’t operate the pocket. But Richardson badly needed live reps and game experience to reach his sky-high potential.

Richardson’s NFL tape

With that backdrop in place, let’s discuss what Richardson has been for the Colts since they drafted him. He’s started 10 games in a Colts uniform — four in 2023 before a season-ending shoulder injury and six in 2024 before the benching. He missed a game in 2023 due to a concussion as well, and two in 2024 for an oblique injury.

The shoulder injury, in particular, really threw off Richardson’s development. For a player who desperately needed game experience, he simply didn’t get much as a rookie. As a result, Richardson entered his sophomore campaign in 2024 with barely 10 quarters of NFL experience. Not only that, but he had to spend a huge chunk of the offseason rehabbing his shoulder injury. He couldn’t get a full offseason of work, retooling his mechanics, gaining rapport with his receivers, or anything like that.

Let’s start with some numbers from Pro Football Focus. In his NFL career, Richardson has 13 big-time throws to 12 turnover-worthy plays, 58 positively graded throws to 49 negatively graded throws, and has been about league-average in avoiding sacks. He’s generally been excellent under pressure and on the move, but unequivocally bad on a down-to-down basis on standard dropbacks and from the pocket.

All this paints the picture of volatility that has encapsulated Richardson’s short NFL career. He has the second-worst completion percentage for qualified quarterbacks since 2006 (in the PFF era), yet the highest average depth of target — and depth of completion — over that same span, by over a full yard. A 13.6 ADOT is ludicrous. Truly an unprecedented number.

Fans are familiar with Richardson’s viral plays, both in the positive and the negative. He has some of the best throws you’ll ever see on film: in 2023, he threw a long touchdown to TE Mo Alie-Cox while being tackled by Aaron Donald. He had the single best throw I’ve ever seen in a game against the Texans in Week 1 of this season, a back-footed throw while under pressure that flew 60 yards in the air and landed in a bucket for a touchdown to WR Alec Pierce.

But that volatility cuts both ways. Sometimes Richardson will badly misfire on some easy throws, like airmailing a five-yard out route or missing wide on a quick curl. These misses make it difficult to move the ball with him under center, as the high-percentage throws usually built into an offense aren’t so high-percentage with Richardson.

And while he doesn’t have the consistently horrendous decision-making habits of some of his peers, Richardson’s lack of experience does shine through in his turnovers. Sometimes he’ll simply miss throws that lead to picks, while other times he’ll misread defensive coverages or try too hard to make a big play instead of throwing the ball away. This learning curve is to be expected with all young quarterbacks, it’s part of the basic development process once they enter the NFL. But as with everything else, it’s heightened with Richardson.

Steichen’s playcalling

Steichen himself has come under fire this week, as well, for the play-calling with Richardson on the field. Of the 15 passes Richardson threw in the first half against Houston in Week 8, 13 came on traditional dropbacks, with seven of those including no play-action. Two were quick-game concepts, one was a screen, and one was a run-pass option (RPO).

Richardson infamously went 2-15 on those throws, with a touchdown and an interception. His receivers didn’t help him much, with five drops (including a dropped touchdown) and another incompletion when the receiver slipped coming out of his break. Texans’ defensive backs made a number of great plays on the ball, as well.

But above all that, the playcalling didn’t help Richardson. We didn’t see designed rollouts, quarterback runs, RPO concepts, and screens used much at all. Richardson was asked to stand back in the pocket and pick apart a top defense, which is simply not the best use of skills at this stage of his career.

While the Colts use play-action at one of the highest rates in the league in 2024, their use of RPOs and designed rollouts lags notably behind other teams with running quarterbacks. Richardson runs the ball frequently, but the Colts don’t support that with many screens or quick-game concepts, which made his job harder.

Richardson’s future

While many seem convinced Richardson’s future in Indianapolis is murky, I just don’t think that’s true. The Colts insist they haven’t given up on him and he is still their quarterback of the future. As mentioned, the locker room loves this kid, and externally at least, they all have his back.

Moreover, both Steichen and Ballard invested heavily in Richardson, both potentially tying their careers in Indianapolis to his success. They would have to believe Richardson had zero chance of working out long-term to even consider moving on so soon.

Will Richardson develop into a top-flight NFL quarterback or even a reliable starting option? That’s harder to say, but I still believe he can. His career so far maps very similarly to a quarterback he was often compared to coming out of college: Josh Allen. The two have nearly identical stats, with Allen having a slightly better completion percentage and Richardson having fewer turnovers. This doesn’t mean Richardson will take an Allen-esque leap in his third season, but at the very least, we shouldn’t be discouraged by what we’ve seen so far. He’s on track.

In fact, I’d go as far as to say Richardson has looked better than I expected. I was high on him during the 2023 draft cycle, but even still, I didn’t expect him to be making amazing plays as consistently as he has. The accuracy and decision-making issues were always going to take time to correct, time he hasn’t yet had.

What’s clear through 10 games is Richardson’s big-play ability is enough on its own to sustain an offense. It hasn’t been pretty, but it’s worked, albeit with mixed results. That gives Steichen and this coaching staff a foundation to continue building from. If Richardson can improve his accuracy, and Steichen can put him in better situations, the sky’s still the limit. That hasn’t changed.

What has changed, for now at least, is that Richardson is going to have to take these steps from the sideline.