NFLTR Review: Big-Name Receivers Potentially Available This Offseason

By
Logan Ulrich
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Teams that need wide receiver help may have fewer options than last year. But the well’s not completely dry. In this issue:

  • DeAndre Hopkins is the headliner. But Michael Thomas will also be intriguing
  • Five other veterans who could be available in a trade
  • Plus one big-name receiver coming off a rookie deal who could be available

The Big Picture: Big-Game WR Hunting In 2023

Back at the NFL trade deadline at the end of October, the Chicago Bears surprised the entire league by pulling off a trade for Steelers WR Chase Claypool, giving up their second-round pick in the process. The shocking part wasn’t the Bears trading for a receiver — they’d been roundly criticized for months for the group they told QB Justin Fields he’d have to make do with in 2022. It was that they gave so much up for Claypool, a talented but inconsistent wideout who so far peaked as a rookie with 873 receiving yards and 11 total touchdowns. 

However, Bears GM Ryan Poles revealed he was looking ahead to this offseason, where the Bears are projected to have $80-$90 million in cap space to spend addressing their myriad of needs like wide receiver, and didn’t really see anyone worth spending on. 

“Yeah, and that’s part of my job and part of my crew upstairs. You have to do a little bit of forecasting and looking down the road, and I just didn’t feel completely comfortable with that. Not to say that there’s not good players there, I just didn’t feel comfortable with not maybe being a little bit more aggressive at this point,” Poles admitted.

He wasn’t necessarily wrong. Last year’s spending and trade bonanza at the wide receiver position decimated the 2023 class of free-agent receivers. Here’s a current top ten:

Like Poles said, there are some good players in there. Meyers is a tough No. 2 or slot option who will make way more money than people expect in March and has a great shot of actually living up to it, like Jaguars WR Christian Kirk did this past season. Chark has some speed and size that could be interesting if he puts it all together. Smith-Schuster could also be a solid No. 2 receiver. 

None of these guys are game-changers, though. At best, you’re getting secondary options and niche role players. Those have their place but we’ve seen in recent years the impact of having a No. 1 receiver. It can spark explosive offenses and accelerate the development of young quarterbacks. Last offseason cemented wide receiver as more important than just about every other position aside from quarterback and pass rusher. 

Plenty of teams are like the Bears and in need of high-end playmakers at the position, but those won’t be found in free agency. The draft is one avenue but in addition to being a hit-or-miss proposition, young receivers often take some time to develop, even the ones who have instant success. 

Teams looking for wide receiver help will have to get creative. Fortunately for them, there’s a potential pool of veterans who could be available this offseason, either via trade or during the pre-free agency wave of cap casualties. This group isn’t without warts but there’s the potential for a big payoff if teams evaluate correctly. Similar to last offseason, there’s another wave of talented young receivers due for new contracts, and if teams balk at the rising prices, it could result in some trades. 

Let’s dive in…

Big-Name Game

Teams are still assessing their rosters and figuring out a way forward for the 2023 season, so in a lot of cases there are decisions on players that have yet to be made. Some have become rather obvious, though, and any discussion about available receivers this offseason has to start with two names:

Thomas is going to be a free agent and more accessible, so we’ll start with him. After three injury-riddled seasons, the Saints executed a reworked contract with Thomas that basically allows them to designate him a June 1 cut and still reap the savings before June 1. It guarantees Thomas a trip to unrestricted free agency where he can try to restart a career that looked so promising after a monstrous 2019 season. 

It’s been so long it’s worth revisiting. Thomas was one of the league’s best receivers in 2019. He racked up 149 catches, which remains the single-season NFL record, for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns. The year before that, he had “only” 125 catches for 1,405 yards and another nine scores. He was every bit as good as what we’re seeing now from guys like Rams WR Cooper Kupp or Vikings WR Justin Jefferson. 

Then he hurt his ankle in Week 1 of 2020, and it caused a cascading effect that basically ruined the rest of that season and all of 2021. Thomas rehabbed his way back and had a promising start to the 2022 season, catching 16 passes for 171 yards and three touchdowns in three games. But he picked up a turf toe injury, one which can be deceitfully hard to come back from. Despite optimism to the contrary, Thomas again ended up on injured reserve, making 2022 another lost season. 

Thomas will turn 30 in March and is a long way away from setting NFL records. Obviously he has a significant injury history that teams will have to account for. There will be questions about fit, too. Thomas is ludicrously competitive and works as hard as anyone in the NFL, but he didn’t always get along with teammates and coaches in New Orleans. Any team that signs him will have to be confident that won’t be an issue. 

There’s good tape of him as recently as September, though, posting up one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks for two touchdowns. That kind of upside will have GMs looking intently to see if Thomas is worth the gamble, especially because he’s not likely to cost that much on a one-year deal all things considered. 

Hopkins will be a lot more expensive. He’s due a base salary of $19.45 million in 2023, and if he’s traded like many expect this offseason, he’ll likely want a new contract as a part of the trade. And of course, the acquisition cost would probably be at least a Day 2 pick going back to Arizona. 

There aren’t the same durability or production questions with Hopkins as there are with Thomas, however. He missed eight games, but six were due to a suspension and the final two were when Arizona was just playing out the string on a miserable season. In the nine he played, Hopkins recorded 64 receptions, 717 yards and three scores, proving he’s still more than capable of being a No. 1 wideout. 

As things stand now, Hopkins is the jewel all the WR-needy teams will be chasing this offseason. We looked at five of the landing spots that make the most sense here, but plenty more will be in the mix trying to lure him. 

For the ones that miss out or decide Hopkins isn’t a fit, there are a few more options to consider: 

Trade Candidates

Texans WR Brandin Cooks

Houston engaged in some serious trade talks involving Cooks at the trade deadline this past season but ultimately it sounds like an unrealistic asking price prevented a deal from getting done. The Texans wanted a second-round pick and didn’t want to pick up any of the $18 million guaranteed they owe Cooks in 2023, which other teams would have viewed as steep for a 29-year-old receiver in the midst of an average season, albeit on a struggling teams. 

Cooks expects the team to try and trade him again this offseason, as he wants no part of a rebuild, and perhaps they’ll be more reasonable. If they were willing to eat some of Cooks’ salary, they could potentially get a Day 2 pick. If they insist on another team taking the money, they might have to settle for a fourth or fifth. It probably depends on which teams are interested as to which course of action makes more sense. 

Cooks had a subpar season by his standards but he’d been remarkably consistent before that, notching 1,000 yards or more in six of seven seasons since 2015. He probably doesn’t fit the definition of a No. 1 receiver but he could be a high-end No. 2 with his speed. The Browns would make a ton of sense, as he’s exactly what their receiving corps needs and he would be reunited with QB Deshaun Watson. The Giants have some cap space to work with and a massive need at wide receiver. Cooks was a good fit during his one season with the Patriots and they check some boxes in terms of need, resources available and familiarity if they close the deal with OC Bill O’Brien. 

Rams WR Allen Robinson

Despite being one of the stars of training camp, Robinson’s disappearance when the regular season started was one of the first signs that the Rams were in for a frustrating 2022 season. Los Angeles struggled to integrate Robinson into their offense, as he had two catches or fewer in three of the team’s first four games. He finished the season with career-worst numbers of 33 catches, 339 yards and three scores in 10 games before a stress fracture sent him to injured reserve. 

Robinson’s contract reflects the high hopes Los Angeles had when they signed him in free agency. He’s due $15 million in guarantees between his base salary and roster bonus and counts more than $18 million against the cap. Because of those guarantees, the Rams cannot cut him. Instead they’d have to explore a trade to another team to get that number off their books. 

If another team was interested, which is far from a sure thing, the Rams wouldn’t get much. The best-case scenario is a similar situation to last season when the Titans gave Los Angeles a sixth-round pick to take on Robert Woods and his salary. It’s more likely Robinson becomes an albatross on the team like Giants WR Kenny Golladay was this past season. But perhaps the Rams would be willing to toss in some picks in a de facto salary dump, and perhaps some team will see reclamation possibilities with Robinson who still won’t turn 30 until August. The slim possibilities of both are why he’s listed here. 

Chargers WR Keenan Allen

Los Angeles is tight up against the cap and there are a few veterans who could provide a ton of savings if they’re released. Allen is one of those. He’s due $15.5 million in base salary, $1.5 million of which is guaranteed, and a $3.5 million roster bonus that is due on March 21. If the Chargers cut or trade him before then, they would save $14.8 million against the cap. 

For about three months as Allen battled a hamstring injury, that looked like a real possibility. He came on strong at the end of the year, though, catching 60 balls for 675 yards and four touchdowns in the final eight games. Chargers GM Tom Telesco didn’t sound that interested in moving on at his end-of-season presser. 

Still, Allen will turn 31 this offseason and the Chargers do need to reinvent on offense to a degree. Allen and fellow WR Mike Williams are excellent receivers who do specific things at an exceptionally high level — route running for Allen, contested receptions for Williams. Between the two, they might be the slowest receiving corps in the league, however. Keeping Allen doesn’t preclude the Chargers from adding more speed to the position but it does mean less resources to do that and address other needs. 

Regardless of what Telesco says, Allen’s age and the cap savings will have other GMs eyeing him as a possible addition. 

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans

Evans will be in the final year of his contract in 2023, but how the Buccaneers approach that will depend on a few things. If Brady decides to play in 2023 and decides it’ll be for a different team, Tampa Bay is going to be left with a $35 million dead money charge, a big need at quarterback and a $50+ million cap hole to dig out of. That demands some kind of roster reset. The Bucs have prioritized win-now veterans and pushed a lot of money into the future to maximize their window with Brady. Without him, a longer range perspective would take precedence. 

If Brady’s back, the simple solution is to extend or restructure Evans, who will turn 30 in August. If he’s not, restructuring doesn’t make a ton of sense unless they land another strong quarterback to keep their window open. An extension could make sense if they’re confident Evans will continue to be productive into his 30s. Evans has gone over 1,000 yards receiving every year of his nine-year career. History says the chances of age catching up with receivers increases substantially in their 30s, however. 

If they’re not confident in Evans aging gracefully, a trade could make a lot of sense. They would have a healthy market for Evans given his track record of production and could get a solid pick or two to help them reload. They wouldn’t be barren at the position either with Chris Godwin and Russell Gage still in the fold. 

Raiders WR Davante Adams

For now, Adams isn’t shaking the boat with the Raiders getting rid of his buddy, QB Derek Carr. He was a big fan of the Raiders before playing with Carr in college at Fresno State and enjoys being far closer to family than he was in Green Bay. And if the Raiders land someone like Brady this offseason, it’ll be hard to be upset with that. 

Now if the Raiders’ plans at quarterback in 2023 heavily involve someone like Jarrett Stidham, then maybe Adams’ feelings will start to change. It’s also worth pointing out that the Raiders built an out into Adams’ contract just like they did with Carr. On March 17, his base salaries for 2023 and 2024 become fully guaranteed and he’s due a $20 million roster bonus. If he’s on the roster past that point, the Raiders are basically committing to two more seasons with him. 

If Las Vegas is rebuilding, is that a commitment they want to make? Do they feel like they’re going to be able to contend in the next two years? If not, wouldn’t it make more sense to trade Adams and direct resources elsewhere? The buzz around Adams has quieted substantially since he said he wouldn’t respond to Carr’s exit by requesting a trade but there are still multiple scenarios where a trade would make a lot of sense for the Raiders. Teams that need receiver help should be mindful of this. 

Other Notable Veterans

Bengals WR Tyler Boyd

I would say the odds are strong Boyd isn’t available. Though Cincinnati could save $8.9 million by releasing him, he remains a productive part of their mismatch-generating receiver trio of him, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, both of whom have at least one more season on a rookie contract. Down the road, it’ll be tough to keep all three, but Cincinnati is unlikely to break this group up until it has to. 

Vikings WR Adam Thielen

The Vikings will have to make some interesting roster decisions after basically kicking the can last year. Though they finished with 13 wins, the loss to the Giants in the wildcard round showed the team to be a bit of a paper tiger. Whether the front office will approach things the same way is yet to be determined. They’ll probably try to balance getting younger with still staying in contention. 

Thielen is one of a number of veterans who hit several specific boxes for the Vikings. They’re on the wrong side of 30 or are old for the positions they play. They were key starters in 2022 but have large cap hits in 2023 and outs in those contracts, though not painless outs. Minnesota could cut or trade Thielen and save $6.4 million, but then be left with more than $13 million in dead money and a need for a new No. 2 receiver. 

A trade would give the Vikings an asset and make it easier to replace Thielen in theory but at 32 and with declining production, I’m not sure how robust the market would be. It seems more likely Thielen ends up a cap casualty. 

Titans WR Robert Woods

Odds are pretty good the Titans end up releasing Woods given the savings and his lack of production this past season. In almost twice as many games, Woods was half as productive in 2022 as he was for his final season with the Rams in 2021. Perhaps his recovery from a torn ACL impacted that, as did the general moroseness of the Titans passing attack. Those are questions other teams will have to answer when assessing how much Woods has left in the tank. 

It is possible that with another year between him and surgery and in a better situation, Woods could have another year as a solid No. 2 receiver. 

Expected Cap Casualties

These players are also strong candidates to be cut to save money by their respective teams, as the production does not line up with the cap hit:

There’s not a whole lot separating this group from the previous list of free agents we discussed at the top of this article. At a minimum, they should round out the depth of this group and give teams some more options for supporting receives. There are some semi-interesting names, though. Davis threatened 1,000 yards receiving a couple of times while with the Titans but injuries and bad quarterback play were unfortunately the hallmarks of his time with the Jets. 

Bourne inexplicably fell out of favor in New England and you get the sense he’s capable of more than he’s produced so far in his career. Anderson and Valdes-Scantling are speedy deep threats, which carries value in the modern NFL. Perhaps a change of scenery sparks a rebound for Golladay. 

Young Trade Candidates

Last offseason, the exploding cost of wide receivers prompted the number of trades, as teams made a philosophical decision whether or not they were comfortable paying what was becoming the new standard asking price. It impacted both veterans and players on rookie contracts negotiating their first major second contract. The Titans dealt WR A.J. Brown rather than pay up, while the 49ers had to smooth over a trade request from WR Deebo Samuel before eventually extending him. The Commanders and Seahawks forked over the cash as well for WRs Terry McLaurin and D.K. Metcalf before too much drama ensued. 

Teams won’t be caught off guard by the cost for wide receivers this offseason, so it stands to reason we should see less drama. Still, it’s not unthinkable we see other teams take the same approach as the Titans, Chiefs and Packers did. 

Here’s a list of wide receivers who are eligible for extensions for the first time this offseason:

I don’t see a ton of drama coming with the situations for Davis, Mooney or Claypool. Davis is still a supporting figure in Buffalo’s passing game even though he’s outperformed his draft status. Chicago has expressed an interest in extending Mooney, while Claypool will have to show his stuff after making no impact following the midseason trade. 

Jefferson has had a historic start to his career and should ink a deal at some point this summer that will be substantial. If it doesn’t reset the market, currently paced by Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill at $30 million a year, it will at least be far less backloaded than Hill’s deal and potentially stronger in some ways. Things seem to be good between the two sides there. 

The Broncos, 49ers and Cowboys all have fifth-year options to use with Jeudy, Aiyuk and Lamb and the expectation is they will do so. That buys them an extra year or so to evaluate and negotiate. Lamb has been terrific and statistically is in a similar place Metcalf, McLaurin and Brown were last year. They inked deals in the $23-$25 million range, which is where Lamb will be, if not higher due to cap growth. 

Denver might take another season to evaluate Jeudy, who has struggled with injuries but seemed to hit his stride late this past season. The 49ers’ decision with Aiyuk will come down to their long-term planning, as they have a lot of expensive players on offense between Samuel, TE George Kittle, RB Christian McCaffrey and LT Trent Williams. Having a quarterback on a rookie deal one way or another helps at least. And the fifth-year option means they don’t have to do anything this offseason. 

That leaves Pittman and Higgins. The Colts emphasize drafting and developing their own players, so it would be antithetical to let a homegrown guy like Pittman leave for nothing in 2024. The question is if they’ll be comfortable with Pittman’s asking price, which could push $20 million a year. If they’re hesitant to pay that this offseason, he could always play out his contract and hope to parlay a big year into a big payday. They’re not in a position to lose talent, so it’s hard to see them trading him. 

Higgins will be the name to watch as a potential trade candidate out of this bunch. The Bengals have massive extensions to think about for QB Joe Burrow and his college buddy Chase in the next couple of seasons. Burrow is eligible this summer, Chase next summer. Those two deals could combine to be worth $80 million a year pretty easily. Can Cincinnati afford that and somewhere around $25 million a year for Higgins? It’s a fair question. 

If not, the question becomes about timing. The passing attack spearheaded by Burrow and the receivers is one of the main strengths of the team and a reason they’re a Super Bowl contender for the second straight year. Trading Higgins this offseason wouldn’t shut the door on their window in 2023 but it would create a significant challenge. If Higgins isn’t happy about not being extended, they might not have a choice. 

If they are able to keep him through the end of his rookie contract, the Bengals would be facing a trick tag-and-trade scenario to try and maximize value for Higgins if they do decide not to extend him. It’s not impossible and Higgins would be worth a lot to other teams regardless. It just becomes way more complicated. 

This Week In Football

  • Remember last week when there was an avalanche of news? Somehow it got even crazier this week, headlined by a number of coaching changes across the league. We’ll get into all of that, but the main takeaway from this week was the possibility of another blockbuster quarterback trade. Over the past few years, you could start to get a sense of when things would begin bubbling under the surface for guys like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, things that would ultimately lead to big quarterback carousel moves we’ve seen. We’re at that point with Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. The company line remains that he’s their franchise quarterback and they’ll re-engage in negotiations on a long-term deal this offseason. But the deal remains unsigned, with full guarantees the sticking point, and frustrations seem to be mounting between the two sides. Plenty of other teams think Baltimore will look to trade Jackson. We’re not there yet but we seem to be far closer than anyone would have expected back in September. 
  • On to the coaching news. The head coaching wheel will remain on five vacancies, as Rams HC Sean McVay announced he would return after a flurry of national reports indicating he was leaning the other way. A few things here. One, there were a number of other plugged-in sources who disputed some of the characterizations of McVay’s state of mind. Two, it does seem inevitable McVay is going to step away at some point in the relatively near future, but I did think the signs pointed more to him staying than going. The core of that Rams team that won the Super Bowl is largely still in place and McVay spurned Amazon money in 2022 to come back so he didn’t let that group down. Of course that would still be a factor this year. And three, McVay is quite sensitive to the public perception of him. Going out right now would be framed as leaving once things got tough with the Rams’ draft pick and cap situation. His statement of wanting to run through adversity, not from it, was aimed at refuting that narrative. 
  • The Saints and Buccaneers also decided to retain their head coaches after disappointing first seasons, which was largely expected. Most of the time you have to be a disaster to be fired after one season, and things didn’t quite rise to that level for Dennis Allen in New Orleans or Todd Bowles in Tampa Bay. Both organizations tend to shy away from knee-jerk moves as well, which bodes well for Allen and Bowles’ chances of avoiding the hot seat in 2023, though another losing season would test that commitment. 
  • Despite the Chargers’ collapse after leading the Jaguars 27-0 in the wildcard round, HC Brandon Staley did not have to pay with his job and was kept on by Los Angeles. It came with a cost, however, as Staley had to shake up his offensive coaching staff after a year in which the consensus opinion was they did not maximize the high-level ability of QB Justin Herbert. The Chargers fired OC Joe Lombardi and QB coach Shane Day, and they should have plenty of options to replace them given the talent on offense, even if Staley is a prime hot-seat candidate in 2023. 
  • With only five head coaching changes, NFL teams satiated their blood lust and need for change by firing from the coordinator ranks. In addition to the Chargers and Lombardi, the Buccaneers made a move by firing OC Byron Leftwich and moving on from eight other coaches on the staff. It sends a clear message about who the organization is blaming for their struggles on offense this year. And it’s a steep fall for Leftwich who seemed like a prime candidate a year ago to get the Jaguars’ head coaching job. In Baltimore, Ravens OC Greg Roman stepped down much to the joy of the fanbase and plenty of other analysts who believe he’s been holding back the team’s offense for the past couple of seasons. Roman’s innovative rushing attack caught the league by storm in 2019 and has consistently been hard for opposing defenses to prepare for. But for as sophisticated as his run game was, his passing attack lacked in creativity, design and execution, and that perception held the Ravens back when it came to upgrading the receivers around Jackson. Overall, Roman is an above-average play-caller and he should have options. Between coordinator firings and the flux from head coach hirings and firings, half the league could change offensive coordinators this offseason. 
  • Notably the Saints and Steelers won’t be among those teams. The Saints made the decision to keep OC Pete Carmichael, who joined the team just after Payton did and has been with them ever since. He moved into the primary play-caller role this season, and while the Saints had their moments on offense, they were too inconsistent. New Orleans has put a high value on continuity the past couple of years, however, and that won out in keeping Carmichael. Steelers HC Mike Tomlin also exhibited patience, an attribute that’s rare in the NFL, with OC Matt Canada. Despite Pittsburgh’s struggles on that side of the ball and rampant criticism of Canada’s system, the Steelers are expected to stick with Canada in 2023. The positive is that first-round QB Kenny Pickett won’t be learning a new offense going into his second season. The downside is that so far it doesn’t seem like his current system is any good. But Tomlin has certainly earned some benefit of the doubt. 
  • There’s plenty of change on the defensive side of the ball as well, though for now it’s not as rampant as it is on offense. Two more teams fired their defensive coordinators on Thursday. The Vikings let DC Ed Donatell go after a defense that struggled all season got shredded by the Giants in the wildcard round like they were playing Madden on rookie mode. In Miami, HC Mike McDaniel also made the move to fire DC Josh Boyer after that side of the ball let the Dolphins down more often than not in 2022 as the offense was among the best in the league. They’ll peruse a market that’s short one option, as the Browns hired veteran NFL coach Jim Schwartz as their new defensive coordinator. He’d been in a senior role with the Titans after stepping down from his post as the Eagles’ defensive coordinator a couple of years ago. He should be great for DE Myles Garrett and not require the Browns to shuffle personnel too much to fit his system. It’ll be interesting to see how the Vikings and Dolphins address their vacancies. McDaniel will probably look outside the Patriots family of defensive coaches after Boyer’s system was criticized by current and former players. Donatell ran a version of the Vic Fangio defense that’s the current fad in the NFL. Something was missing in the implementation, though, which we’ve seen from some other teams. 
  • Wrapping up the coordinator news, the Patriots technically went through last year without an offensive or defensive coordinator, and the DC vacancy has been for a couple of years. That looks like it could be changing. Faced with the prospect of losing LB coach Jerod Mayo, the Patriots made it a point to make a hard charge with an extension, presumably to make it worth his while to turn down interest from other teams like the Panthers who wanted Mayo to interview for their head coaching vacancy. On the other side of the ball, it looks like the Patriots have zeroed in on Alabama OC Bill O’Brien, who knows the New England system and knows QB Mac Jones. It’s as close to an admission as we’re probably going to get from HC Bill Belichick that having Matt Patricia as an unofficial offensive coordinator was not a good idea. 
  • None of the five teams with vacancies have made a hire of a new head coach, though it does seem like the process is progressing. Instead, there are some updates. After another offseason of speculation, Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh announced definitively he is returning and withdrew his name from consideration for the Broncos head coaching vacancy. Denver was the only team that had shown real interest in Harbaugh so far, and he was up against two other really strong candidates in Payton and Cowboys DC Dan Quinn. Speaking of Payton, he gave a good interview that offered a lot of insight into how the process is playing out from his perspective. Specifically, it does not seem like the Texans are as long of a shot to get Payton as most people would have assumed. Payton has interviewed with the Texans and Broncs and had to have his interview with Carolina pushed back after an unfortunate tragedy in Charlotte. That’s one of the last dominoes, at which point we’ll see what Payton wants to do next. 
  • The general manager hiring cycle has wrapped up with both vacancies filled. The Cardinals hired Titans executive Monti Ossenfort, who came over to Tennessee with a heavy background in New England’s front office. The history of Patriots executives is better than former Patriots assistant coaches but there are still quite a few landmines, so it’ll be interesting to see how this goes for Arizona. The Titans let Ossenfort out of the building and elected to bypass another strong internal candidate in Ryan Cowden to pluck 49ers director of pro personnel Ran Carthon for their general manager job. It shows how highly they think of Carthon, who is also held in high esteem around the NFL. Of course, time will tell with both of these hires. 
  • One last coaching note: Lions OC Ben Johnson was one of the hot candidates in this year’s cycle, getting interview requests from the Texans, Colts and Panthers. But he’ll be back in Detroit after withdrawing his name from consideration. It’s a huge coup for the Lions to keep Johnson in the fold after such a good season and portends well for their offense to keep up its success in 2023. For Johnson, he either thinks he’s not ready, doesn’t like his current options or just really, really likes Detroit. Maybe a combination of all of them. The challenge, though, is that the NFL is fickle. Like we’ve seen with Leftwich, it doesn’t take long for the shine to wear off your star if you’re not careful. 
  • We’ll wrap things up full circle by going back to the quarterback position. We got confirmation on a few starters about their team’s plans for them in 2023. The Rams exercised a contract option for QB Matthew Stafford which furthers their commitment to him and ensures he’ll be back in 2023. Stafford says he expects to be healthy, too. The Seahawks plan to bring back QB Geno Smith, one way or another, with an extension or the franchise tag. And the Dolphins will ride with QB Tua Tagovailoa in 2023, though the decision on his fifth-year option in May will be more telling than what they say now. None of these are surprises but it’s good to get confirmation. 
  • In what qualifies as a minor surprise, the Commanders have apparently been telling the candidates they’ve been interviewing for offensive coordinator that they plan to go into this offseason with fifth-round QB Sam Howell as their starter for 2023. Howell flashed some nice stuff in his Week 18 start, but not that nice… Now some reporting has since indicated Howell will have to compete for the job and Washington might have cash restrictions that make the idea of going with a fifth-round contract at quarterback appealing. It also helps their leverage situation after they got bent over a barrel in the Carson Wentz trade last offseason. 
  • Finally, if Jackson stays in Baltimore, the prize of the quarterback chase this offseason, outside of perhaps the No. 1 pick, will be Buccaneers QB Tom Brady. Given how poorly this season has gone, it seems like a long shot Brady will be back in Tampa Bay — although there are some rumblings from the beat suggesting it’s a possibility. If it’s not the Bucs, it seems like things are lining up for the Raiders to make an aggressive charge at landing Brady. The connection with HC Josh McDaniels is obvious. Las Vegas has a lot of weapons on offense as well, and if they can patch the offensive line, Brady should be able to do a lot of damage still. Las Vegas has a lot of holes still and plays in a hyper-competitive AFC West. But Brady will be picky, and the Raiders seem to check a lot of boxes he might be looking for. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

The Panthers, Texans and Broncos don’t officially have vacancies yet until they hire a new head coach, but it’s probably safe to add them to the list. If I had to rank these…

  1. Chargers
  2. Rams
  3. Ravens
  4. .
  5. A gap
  6. .
  7. Cardinals
  8. Panthers
  9. Texans
  10. Colts
  11. Broncos
  12. Buccaneers
  13. Titans
  14. Jets
  15. Patriots
  16. Commanders

The LA teams are clearly top-tier, with Herbert on one side of town and a chance to join the McVay pipeline on the other. Add in the Ravens with their elite quarterback too. After that, it’s a big gap. I gave the advantage to the teams with a chance to get a young QB to develop…

The Patriots are low because their work environment seems terrible. The Broncos are higher because even after this past season, Russell Wilson seems better than what the other teams could be working with…

Can we just go ahead and nip this idea that Jackson HAS to run the offense Roman built around him? He ran a pro-style offense at Louisville. He’s capable of a lot more than what we’ve seen…

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