NFLTR Review: Second-Half Risers & Frauds

By
Logan Ulrich
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Half of the 2022 NFL season is in the books. But the drama is far from over: 

  • 14 teams have winning records right now. Which ones might be posers? 
  • Here’s a hint; two claim to play in New York but actually play in New Jersey
  • Meanwhile 17 teams have losing records — is there a Cinderella team in this group? 

Second-Half Risers & Frauds

With exactly half of the NFL’s 544 regular season games in the books, we’ve officially reached the midway point of the 2022 season. One team is at .500 — the 4-4 49ers — with 14 teams above that mark in the win column and 17 teams with losing records. 

If the playoffs started today, the Jets and Giants would each be in, while the Packers, Rams, Bengals and Broncos would all be out. Not exactly what people expected during the preseason. But the playoffs don’t start for two more months, and there’s plenty of time for some teams to be exposed and others to go on a Cinderella run. In fact, it’s an annual occurrence. 

So who are the pumpkins? Who are the princesses? Let’s dive in: 

Pumpkin candidates:

Jets (6-3)

Even in a year where it seems like there have never been more slumping quarterbacks around the league, it’s still important to get good play from the position. So for as impressive as the Jets’ 6-3 start has been, it’s concerning that they’ve largely been winning in spite of second-year QB Zach Wilson. During their four-game win streak last month, Wilson threw just one touchdown. He had a throwback game to an awful rookie season, throwing three interceptions in a blowout loss to the Patriots. Even in the win against the Bills, the Jets didn’t ask Wilson to do too much. He completed 18-25 passes for 154 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. New York leaned on the running game with 34 rush attempts, including 10 on the go-ahead drive. 

This has been working for the Jets because the supporting cast around Wilson has been quite good. The defense has been outstanding. They held the Bills to a season-low 17 points and so far rank sixth in yards allowed, eighth in scoring defense, seventh in takeaways and sixth in sacks. Guys like DT Quinnen Williams, LB C.J. Mosley, DL John Franklin-Myers, CB D.J. Reed and first-round CB Sauce Gardner are having outstanding seasons

On offense, the young skill position talent has been outstanding, with first-round WR Garrett Wilson and second-round RB Breece Hall (before his ACL tear) becoming instant impact players. There’s a lot of depth too with players like WR Corey Davis, RB Michael Carter and TE Tyler Conklin, and that’s with WR Elijah Moore being a mysterious non-factor too. The offensive line has held up, too, despite the rash of injuries. They’re not a top-performing unit but they’re also not a disaster, which is better than you’d expect given who they’re working with. 

However, the difficulty level is about to go way up. New York has the benefit of wins against a 2-6 Steelers squad, the Dolphins without surprise MVP-candidate QB Tua Tagovailoa, and underperforming Packers and Broncos squads. The win against the Bills is legit but QB Josh Allen had a pair of just awful interceptions, the kind he’d largely excised from his game during his progression to top-shelf player. 

After the bye this week, the Jets get a road rematch against the Patriots squad that embarrassed them, host the surprisingly plucky Bears, then go back-to-back on the road against the Vikings and Bills. There’s a lull with the Lions and Jaguars, then the Jets go on the road against the NFC West-leading Seahawks and close at Miami. That regular-season finale could be huge for positioning in the wildcard race. 

If the Jets’ defense and skill players keep up this pace, New York could be fine. But they’re surely going to need more from Wilson at some point, especially in a hyper-competitive AFC wildcard field. For that reason, I’m leery about their chances down the stretch. 

Titans (5-3) 

Tennessee is probably fine because they play in the AFC South and have a multi-game lead on the Colts, Jaguars and Texans. It’s hard to see Indianapolis or Houston catching the Titans. But could Jacksonville? 

The Titans haven’t beaten a team with a winning record yet and still have matchups against the Bengals, Eagles, Chargers and Cowboys. They have games against the Broncos and Packers in a five-day stretch this coming week, then two games against Jacksonville and another against the Texans. 

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have the Chiefs this week and the Ravens after the bye in Week 11. There’s the two games against Tennessee, plus matchups against the Lions, Cowboys, Jets and Texans. Five of the final eight are on the road. That’s not exactly a cakewalk. 

What it would have to come down to is the Jaguars sweeping the Titans and taking care of business against the Lions and Texans. If both teams lose the games you’d expect them to, that means the Titans would also probably need to drop one or both of the games against Denver and Green Bay. So it’s not altogether out of the question that the Titans could be caught but it seems highly unlikely given the current state of things. 

Chargers (5-3)

Right now, the Chargers would be the No. 7 seed in the AFC by a slim margin over the Patriots and Bengals, each of whom is 5-4. But a franchise infamous for coming up short — so much so that “Chargering” has become a verb synonymous with choking — has to be on a list of potential pumpkins. 

Injuries have hit the Chargers hard, as they’re missing most of the big-name players that had many analysts thinking they could be a Super Bowl contender. Out of the group of DE Joey Bosa, LT Rashawn Slater, CB J.C. Jackson, WR Keenan Allen and WR Mike Williams, the Chargers have gotten just 20 of 40 possible starts so far. So in one sense, they’re doing well to be 5-3 right now. 

The rest of Los Angeles’ slate is manageable, ranking 23rd in strength of schedule per Tankathon. That still includes games against the Chiefs, 49ers, Dolphins and Titans, though, all of whom currently sit multiple games over .500. The Chargers also, ironically, have been a little lucky in one-score games so far with a record of 4-1 in games decided by seven points or less. Over time, we usually see close games trend toward being 50-50, but it’s possible the Chargers’ luck holds throughout the season. 

Los Angeles also should get guys like Bosa, Williams and Allen back in December, so the chance to finish strong is there. They just can’t lose too much position in a crowded AFC wildcard field. 

Vikings (7-1)

The Vikings probably have done well enough that falling all the way out of the postseason is unlikely. The New York Times playoff app has their chances at 99 percent right now. They’re currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC and have a four-game lead against the next-closest NFC North team. 

However, it’s worth pointing out their current six-game winning streak has come with a margin of eight points or fewer in each victory. They get another break this week probably in a matchup against the Bills without Allen at quarterback. But remember the earlier tidbit about close games. It doesn’t always happen, but usually the scales balance out. 

Seahawks (6-3)

Seattle might be one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 season. The Seahawks currently hold a two-game lead in the NFC West thanks in large part to a career renaissance from QB Geno Smith. That of course leads to questions about how sustainable this all is, but I think there are a lot of reasons to be confident in the Seahawks. The Seahawks have won each of their last four games by double digits, including games against the Chargers, Giants and Cardinals twice. Winning is hard in the NFL, especially by multiple scores, and none of those teams are pushovers.

Smith is no fluke either. He’s playing like a legitimate top-10 quarterback this season, making great decisions even while pushing the ball down the field. His 73.1 completion percentage leads the NFL and his completion percentage over expected is first by a healthy margin as well. An electric running game spearheaded by second-round RB Kenneth Walker and elite skill position talent with WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett help, and Seattle was able to shore up the offensive line in the draft with rookie bookend tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. 

Rookies have also been huge on the defensive side of the ball for the Seahawks, and that’s probably why they have progressively improved as the season has advanced. Since losing 39-32 to the Seahawks, allowing an average of 30 points per game in the first five games, Seattle improved their scoring defense to 19 points per game in the last four. They also notched 19 sacks and seven turnovers in that span. 

This is a legitimately good team. They have a rematch against the 49ers and a Week 16 road matchup against the Chiefs that will help tell us just how good they could be. 

Giants (6-2)

Every week I watch the Giants and every week I marvel at how they pull games out by the skin of their teeth. Credit to HC Brian Daboll and his staff, they are unquestionably doing a tremendous job with a team that might have started the season with the shortest deck of anyone entering the season. They’ve overcome injuries and talent deficiencies to hang around long enough in nearly all of their games to pull it out at the end. Six of their eight games have been one-score affairs and the Giants are 5-1 in those games. 

How sustainable is that long-term? We’re about to find out. The Giants have the NFL’s fourth-hardest schedule the rest of the way, featuring games against the Cowboys, Vikings and twice against the Eagles — the team with the NFL’s best record. Five of New York’s six division games will come in this second-half stretch. If they keep winning, an NFC East title and high playoff seed are quite attainable. It’ll be challenging though. 

The bright side is if the Giants are relegated to chasing after a wildcard, the rest of the NFC isn’t stellar and they currently have a two-game lead over the 49ers who currently hold the No. 7 seed. There are games against the Texans, Lions and Colts to potentially pad the record. However, the downside of playing everyone close is that those gimme games aren’t so easy, either. It’s an impressive start to the season and worth noting for next year when the Giants will have had a full offseason with no cap challenges to add talent. But that 6-2 record very well could diminish quickly in the next couple of months. 

Top Cinderella Candidates

Falcons (4-6)

You can tell a story to talk yourself into a number of struggling teams figuring things out down the stretch. But I’m limiting myself to one from each conference. I considered the Packers or Rams, as they have quarterbacks who have shown they can lift up their supporting casts in the past and overcome the myriad problems plaguing both those squads. The Commanders have looked frisky, and so have the Bears in the past three weeks with the new-look offense. 

But my pick is the Falcons. Yes, they just dropped a game to the Panthers and looked awful. That just means more people will be off the bandwagon. Atlanta isn’t a good team but they have a few things going for them down the stretch that could help them take advantage of a weak NFC. They play in what is clearly the NFL’s worst division this year, as no NFC South team has a winning record. That said, Atlanta has just a 1-3 record inside the NFC South, so they’re not running away from anyone. 

But they do have the second-easiest schedule going forward in the entire league. That included last night’s game against the formerly 2-7 Panthers but still, it should give Atlanta a little bit of wiggle room to keep pace with and potentially catch the Buccaneers. They have winnable games against the Bears, Commanders and Steelers the next three weeks, a bye in Week 14, then games against the Saints, Ravens, Cardinals and Buccaneers. 

What they’ll need to do is play to their strengths as a team, something the Panthers were able to take them out of. The Falcons have a clear identity as a creative, run-focused group that is at its best when it can keep opponents off-balance and take advantage of the physical mismatch talents they do have — including freaky TE Kyle Pitts, first-round WR Drake London, versatile RB Cordarrelle Patterson and the mobile QB Marcus Mariota. Shut down the ground game and ask Mariota to do too much, and the Falcons fold. Their defense doesn’t have the talent to hold up right now, so they need the offense to be effective. 

Add it all up, and it doesn’t sound that great. There’s a reason the Falcons are 4-6 so far after all. But they have a clear identity, an easy schedule and a weak division. That’s enough to maybe make some noise. 

Broncos (3-5)

I admittedly might be letting my preseason thoughts about the Broncos and QB Russell Wilson cloud my judgment here, as I think the narrative is far harsher — on Wilson especially — than is fair right now. There are more compelling candidates in the AFC to be sure. The Bengals and Patriots are right in the thick of things and the Browns are poised to get QB Deshaun Watson back in three weeks. 

But I don’t think the Broncos are quite as far away from figuring things out as people might think. Let’s start with the defense, which has been outstanding. Led by talents in the secondary like CB Patrick Surtain and S Justin Simmons, the Broncos are giving up only 165 passing yards per game, which is an absurdly low number in the modern NFL, even with the league-wide passing slump. They traded away OLB Bradley Chubb but they have plenty of depth at edge rusher once guys like Randy Gregory and Baron Browning return, which should be soon. 

On offense, the Broncos are fourth in the NFL in explosive passing plays (22 completions of 25 yards or more). So it’s not all a wreck. The issues have been in the red zone, where Denver is last in touchdown percentage (35 percent). They have to improve there, as well as continue to figure out the dynamic between Wilson and HC Nathaniel Hackett. Their last game against the Jaguars showed a little bit of progress in these areas, and they’ve had the bye to try and work on them more. 

The offensive line has been hit with some injuries, which will hurt, but overall there’s enough talent on this roster to be a playoff team if they can get the offense back on track. And if you’re looking for a team that’s been counted out to surprise people, it’s hard to find a better candidate than the Broncos right now. 

This Week In Football

  • The eyes of the entire league were on Indianapolis this week as the Colts pulled off a series of moves that it’s fair to say are unprecedented in NFL history. After a dismal 26-3 loss to the Patriots, the Colts fired HC Frank Reich despite owner Jim Irsay proclaiming a week ago he was safe. Though the timing at midseason was somewhat surprising, it wasn’t a shock Reich’s job was on the line. We mentioned it in this column last week. No one could have predicted what Irsay did next, however, bringing in former Colts center and current ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach. The extent of Saturday’s coaching experience is as the head coach of a prep school in Georgia, where he compiled a 20-16 record, and he vaulted several more qualified options on the Colts’ current staff. It’s an experiment that is unprecedented in NFL history, and it’s hard to see it going well. 
  • Perhaps that’s Irsay’s plan in order to finally get Indianapolis off the band-aid quarterback wheel with a high draft pick. He’s shifted from being patient to being extraordinarily hands-on, masterminding the benching of QB Matt Ryan, the firing of OC Marcus Brady and now Reich, and the hiring of Saturday. Colts GM Chris Ballard is the next big name on the chopping block. Irsay said this week there’s “no question” Ballard is back in 2023, but keep in mind, he called Ryan a “steely-eyed missile man” the day before benching him and gave Reich a vote of confidence a week before canning him… 
  • Now that the trade deadline is done, we go on Odell Beckham Jr. watch. The talented receiver is expected to be cleared medically in the coming days and should have no shortage of teams in pursuit of his services. Any contending team with a need at receiver and high-level quarterback play should be in the market. Popular speculative fits include the Rams, Bills and Chiefs, but the Cowboys recently emerged as a potential landing spot. Dallas has made a hard public push for him this week, with players, coaches and owner Jerry Jones all stumping for him in interviews. Stay tuned…
  • Speaking of the trade deadline, some interesting nuggets emerged in the aftermath. The Rams were willing to pay even more for DE Brian Burns than previously thought, with the final offer Carolina turned down consisting of two future first-round picks and a second-round pick. It’s a clear sign the Panthers don’t think they’re that far away and would rather keep Burns and pay him than try to roll the dice on finding a comparable player. I also think it means they’re confident they’ll be able to use what resources they have now to solve the quarterback position this offseason. For the Rams, Burns would have given them a star to build around after DT Aaron Donald is gone, which will be sooner rather than later. 
  • Once again, the Packers are all too willing to trumpet how close they came to adding an impact offensive skill position player as opposed to actually closing the deal for one. Reports confirmed Green Bay was outbid for WR Chase Claypool, shut down when they approached the Panthers about WR D.J. Moore and were not able to talk the Raiders into trading TE Darren Waller. It’s hard to see the Packers being major players for Beckham either at this point given their 3-6 record. It looks like they’ll have to wait until the offseason to try really really hard to upgrade their skill positions again. 
  • One surprising name that popped up in trade rumors after the deadline was Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins. The more you think about it, though, the less surprising it is. Hopkins’ return from a six-game PED suspension gave the Cardinals a little morale boost, but it hasn’t materially improved their record. They were 2-4 without him, 1-2 so far with him. Next year, Hopkins will be 31 and slated to count $30.1 million against the cap. There’s a lot up in the air for Arizona next season, including perhaps the status of GM Steve Keim and HC Kliff Kingsbury despite the extensions they both just signed. The team seems like it will need to retool, and draft picks and cap space could be tempting for the Cardinals. Despite his age and contract, the wide receiver landscape could make Hopkins appealing to another team, especially because he still looks like he can ball. Just file this all away in the back of your mind for February. 
  • Once again, the weekly injury report. The worst part of the news each week: 
    • The hits kept coming for the Packers with the loss of stud OLB Rashan Gary to a torn ACL. He was a massively important player on defense, arguably more than star CB Jaire Alexander. Fifth-round OLB Kingsley Enagbare has flashed but this will push him into a much bigger role, one you don’t normally expect Day 3 rookies to be ready for. Green Bay’s defense has already underperformed preseason expectations. Hard to see that changing now. 
    • A couple of big-name quarterbacks got nicked up and might miss Week 10 but fortunately they don’t seem to be long-term injuries at this point. Bills QB Josh Allen sprained the UCL ligament in his elbow and has not practiced this week. The upcoming game against the Vikings seems like a longshot but he appeared to avoid a more serious injury and could be back soon after, even if it’s not Week 11. Rams QB Matthew Stafford was placed in the concussion protocol on Tuesday after showing symptoms. Given the timing, it’s hard to see him clearing for a must-win game against the Rams. It’s always hard to say with concussions but he has a good shot of only missing one game. Backups QBs Case Keenum and John Wolford will get the start for the Bills and Rams respectively. 
    • Raiders TE Darren Waller has had a balky hamstring dating back to the summer. At the time, there was some thought that it was related to contract talks, but it’s clear now Waller’s hamstring is a real issue. He hasn’t played since Week 4 and the Raiders already had their bye. Las Vegas decided to go ahead and shut him down on injured reserve for at least four weeks to try and give him time to heal. They did the same with WR Hunter Renfrow who picked up an oblique injury, so the Raiders’ passing attack is shorthanded once again. Not having a full complement of weapons on offense is a big reason the team is 2-6 right now. 
    • The Chargers made a number of big free agent signings to try and reinforce their defense, but they lost another one of them this week when DT Austin Johnson went down with a season-ending knee fracture. Los Angeles already ranked 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, so losing a starting nose tackle won’t help. 
    • 49ers CB Jason Verrett — nearing a return this week from a torn ACL that wiped out his entire 2021 season — suffered the latest in what has been a career full of setbacks when he tore his Achilles in practice. It’s the second career Achilles tear for Verrett, who has also torn his ACL twice, needed surgery on both shoulders and suffered a severe ankle injury. When he’s been on the field, he’s been an excellent player. It’s just staying on the field has been hard. It’s difficult to express in words just how much this sucks for Verrett. 
  • After unsuccessfully shopping S Johnathan Abram since basically the summer, the Raiders decided to go ahead and release the former first-round pick to try and give him a fresh start elsewhere — and to get another team to claim his salary and clear their books. It worked, as the Packers claimed Abram on Wednesday. Packers ST coordinator Rich Bisaccia knows Abram well from their time in Las Vegas together and Abram could allow them to move S Darnell Savage to nickel corner, as they don’t have a safety right now who could step in for Savage. However, it’s fair to temper expectations given Abram’s struggles in coverage as a Raider. 
  • Funny enough, the player taken right after Abram in the first round in 2020 — Chargers DL Jerry Tillery — was also released this week. His name came up quietly at the trade deadline, as Los Angeles had declined his fifth-year option this offseason following three largely disappointing seasons. It’s still a bit of a surprise to see them release him outright, as he had been playing a not-insignificant number of snaps and been grading out as a top 50 interior defender per PFF. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

As a Panthers fan, I have two main wishes for this coming offseason:

  1. Draft Alabama QB Bryce Young, whether they get the No. 1 pick or need to trade up. 
  2. Hire Frank Reich as head coach

I haven’t dug into the 2023 QB class in-depth yet — that’s coming in a future column though — but from what I’ve seen of the college football season, Young is my favorite passer in the draft. He’d be smaller than any quarterback since Doug Flutie, but Young just has * it * as a quarterback. He doesn’t get rattled by pressure and finds ways to make amazing plays with his arms and his legs regularly. Young is dramatically different as a player than former Panthers QB Cam Newton, but he’d be the franchise player Carolina has been searching for since dumping Newton…

As for Reich, the way things ended with the Colts has obscured what I think is a compelling resume as a good NFL head coach. Reich’s teams never figured out the quarterback position, and he has to shoulder some of that blame as the biggest advocate in trading for QB Carson Wentz. But the front office let him down there too. Reich’s teams consistently competed hard and largely defied expectations up until the end of last year. He’s analytically savvy and an excellent offensive designer and play-caller. He has connections to the Charlotte region as well as a former pastor in the area. Give him a legitimate franchise quarterback — like Young — and watch out…

Super interesting and relevant given the rest of this column. Big LOL at the 2-6 Steelers having two wins added due to luck. Also interesting to see how high the Giants are here…

Bears points the first six weeks: 19, 10, 23, 12, 22, 7. The last three weeks: 33, 29, 32…

Justin Fields average rushing attempts the first six weeks: 9. The last three: 12.1..

Good on the Bears for figuring this out. But like, what took so long??

Leftover from the trade deadline. This is a neat look at the nitty gritty mechanics of how these deals actually come together. It’s a little different with big organizations like this than it is trading with your buddies in your fantasy league…

There were 10 trades after this was posted…

Zeke vs Pollard is a whole deal, especially among the fantasy community. But I think these two hit the nail on the head about why both players are valuable, and why turning Pollard into an every-down back misses the mark of why he’s actually good in the first place…

The clips these two drop every week from their show are must-watch. Both for humor and insight…

https://twitter.com/PatrickMahomes/status/1586815439455272965?s=20&t=JpaGm63D_boHUER2y6sFAw

From someone who would know…

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