Back in 2020, I could have told you 14 of the 17 games on the schedule for all 32 teams in 2026. That’s because the NFL uses a formula to build its regular season, with each team playing twice against its division and against one division from each conference on a rotating basis. The final three games are based on the previous year’s standings and cycle through the remaining two intra-conference divisions and another division from the opposing conference. 

We knew as soon as last year’s regular season ended that the Patriots would play the Seahawks in 2026. But we didn’t know until this week that the game would be the very first game of the season in a rematch of the Super Bowl, setting the tone for both teams going into the year. 

That’s why the NFL schedule release actually matters in terms of forecasting the upcoming season. The formula works hard to create the parity the NFL prizes, but other factors like short weeks, miles traveled, international games, prime time slots or a particularly frontloaded slate can tip the scales. The NFL keeps asking teams to stretch logistically, too, in order to satisfy the league’s greater business goals like global expansion or maximizing revenue from the TV networks. 

Now that we have the full 272-game season locked into dates, here are some notable takeaways to look out for. 

NFL Bullish On Mahomes For Week 1

The Chiefs have back-to-back prime time slots to open the season, first on Monday Night Football against the Broncos, then the following Sunday night against the Colts. That sure seems like a telling sign that the league thinks Patrick Mahomes, not Justin Fields, will be under center in time to start the season. 

Now, some caveats apply. The league office probably does not have some special insight into Mahomes’ ACL rehab. Injury timelines are subject to change, and while the Chiefs are optimistic, they don’t yet know for sure that Mahomes will be starting in Week 1. No one does. 

Having said that, these are billion-dollar decisions that the league scheduling department is making. They only have so many prime time slots available and they want to maximize those as much as possible. We’ve seen the league hedge bets in the past with when they schedule certain matchups to try and get ahead of the chaos of an unpredictable season. They could have done that here pretty easily. 

The fact that they didn’t suggests they’re pretty dang confident that it’s going to be Mahomes on the field to start the season. 

Harbaugh’s Giants Back In Prime Time

The arrival of new Giants HC John Harbaugh has injected a ton of optimism into New York’s season outlook for the first time in a while. That will only ramp up with the summer ahead to build anticipation. The Giants have one of the league’s biggest media markets and most invested fanbases, so the league office didn’t need much of an excuse to put them front and center again. They have four prime time slots in 2026, including two back-to-back to open the season. 

The Giants launch the Sunday Night Football slate against the Cowboys in Week 1, then take on the Rams cross-country on Monday Night Football in Week 2. There’s a Thursday night home game against the Commanders in Week 10, then a return to MNF on the road against the Lions in Week 16. If it all goes well and the team is in playoff contention, a home matchup against the Eagles in Week 18 would also be a candidate to be flexed into a standalone window. 

We’ll see if the Giants’ personnel can support the optimism. Harbaugh’s impact should be felt right away and much of the optimism centers around a potential leap from QB Jaxson Dart in his second season. But New York might not have star WR Malik Nabers for those first two showcase games, as his road back from last year’s torn ACL has not been expeditious. An 0-2 start would take a lot of wind out of the Giants’ sails, though they could right the ship with the Titans and Cardinals on deck in Weeks 3 and 4. 

49ers Schedule Isn’t As Bad As Some Would Have You Believe

49ers HC Kyle Shanahan made headlines with his complaints about losing a home game to the NFL’s international expansion efforts in Australia. San Francisco will lead all teams in miles traveled next season at over 38,000, beating the division-rival Rams and their Australian opponents by several thousand. They’ll travel nearly 16,000 miles for that game alone, more than 11 other teams will travel all season. 

But the league more than made it up to the 49ers. They have a 10-day break to recover and three straight home games after they return, including two games against the Dolphins and Cardinals who are tied for the lowest projected win totals of any team next season. There’s a short-week East Coast road trip to the Falcons after a Monday nighter against the Commanders, but the 49ers get their bye after that to recover again. 

From there, the 49ers have one more cross-country trip to face the Giants in December, plus road games in Dallas and Kansas City. They also have another short week on the road, playing on Thursday night football in Week 15. However, that game is against the Chargers in Los Angeles, the shortest trip possible for the 49ers. 

Rams Have Legitimate Gripes

Compare the 49ers’ slate to the Rams, who also drew the long Australian straw. Los Angeles gets an extra day off from that sojourn since it plays on Monday night in Week 2, but that kicks into a short week to go on the road in Denver the following Sunday night. After that game, they have to go to the East Coast to take on the Eagles, followed by a Monday night home game against the Bills — their fourth prime time game in the first five weeks. 

While the 49ers get their bye in Week 8, the Rams won’t get theirs until Week 11. The Rams will also play in the first-ever Thanksgiving eve game as the NFL starts to foray into Wednesday football. It’s coming out of their bye, which means it’s not a short week game, but it also means the Rams have just a 10-day bye week instead of the standard 14 days. 

They’ll have eight days before a Thursday night game against the Chiefs, then the mini bye of 10 days before their 49ers rematch. But the Rams don’t get out of having a short week, with a five-day break before a Christmas Day game on Friday, December 25. Add in three trips to the East Coast compared to two for the 49ers — with one of those a trip to Tampa Bay in Week 17 sandwiched between the two games against the Seahawks that could have season-defining implications — and the Rams have much more cause to complain. 

Teams Opting Against International Byes

One of the concessions the NFL usually makes to teams it sends overseas for international games is giving them the option to take their bye the following week. Last year that was downgraded to a consideration instead of an assurance. However, teams had independently started to move away from automatically taking the week off after going overseas. 

This year, that trend became far more widespread, either because of the NFL sunsetting the concession or teams making different strategic decisions. The Cowboys and Ravens play in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, in Week 3, the second leg of the international series after Week 1 in Australia. Byes don’t start until Week 5 but neither team will get that time off until December. Baltimore has its bye in Week 13, Dallas in Week 14. 

The rest of the teams going overseas: 

• Jaguars: play Week 5 and Week 6 consecutively in London, bye in Week 7
• Eagles: play JAX Week 5, bye isn’t until Week 10
• Texans: play JAX Week 6, vs NYG Week 7, bye in Week 8
• Saints: play PIT Week 7 in Paris, bye Week 8
• Steelers: play NO Week 7, CLE Week 8, bye Week 9
• Falcons: play CIN Week 9 in Madrid, KC Week 10, bye Week 11
• Bengals: Bye is in Week 6, play ATL Week 9 as part of 12 straight to end season
• Lions: also off Week 6, play NE Week 10 in Munich on 12-game run to end year
• Patriots: play DET Week 10, bye Week 11

As you can see, there is a wide range of scenarios here. Some teams get the usual week off, others play a game before hitting the bye and still others have their international games embedded into long, unbroken swathes of the season. Everyone is going to learn a lot by seeing how these variations impact or don’t impact things in 2026. 

When Will We See Mendoza?

The Raiders have suggested that they would be just fine if No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza ended up sitting the entire year behind veteran QB Kirk Cousins, who got $20 million to be a mentor and give Las Vegas the option of not rushing Mendoza into the lineup before he’s ready. Realistically, though, Cousins would have to have the Raiders in the playoff hunt to keep the job the whole season. History says Mendoza will play sooner rather than later, assuming he doesn’t win the job outright during training camp. 

I do think the Raiders are 100 percent serious about Cousins taking the reins to start, and that Mendoza will have a legitimate initial learning curve from his collegiate offenses to new HC Klint Kubiak’s scheme. Las Vegas eases into its schedule with the Dolphins and Saints the first three weeks, so that gives Cousins a chance to get a couple of wins under his belt. 

From there, they hit a gauntlet, taking on the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams. Three of those four are at home, but then the Raiders play at home just one time between October 25 and December 13, with tilts against the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos in that stretch. The bye isn’t until Week 13 at the end of November, and in a quirk the Raiders aren’t on any Thursday night games, so there’s no mini bye on the other side of a short week. 

That makes it a little tough to find an easier launch point for Mendoza when the Raiders decide to make the switch. It would be a little surprising if they waited all the way until the bye but also not totally out of the realm of possibility. A Week 8 game against the Jets stands out as another potential softer debut point. Otherwise, the Raiders are just going to have to bite the bullet and throw Mendoza into the fire against one of the powerhouse teams on their schedule. 

Home Field Advantages

Being the host team is a real advantage in the NFL, but that can be more pronounced depending on when and where the game is played, along with who the opponent is. Teams in Florida have a legitimate advantage in September when it’s the hottest, particularly if it’s a cold-weather team making the trip. That might not matter for the Dolphins this year, but the Buccaneers get three of their first four at home, including the Browns, Vikings and Packers, which could help them start strong. The Jaguars shouldn’t need extra help to dispatch the Browns in Week 1 but it could help in Week 3 when the Patriots come to town. 

Jacksonville will be on the other side of the coin when it travels to Denver in Week 2. The Broncos have an inherent advantage because of the altitude at their aptly-named “Mile High Stadium” but that is more pronounced early in the season when teams are still working their way into shape. They get the Rams in Week 3 at home, too. 

Cold-weather teams that don’t play in domes get to punch back in the higher stakes games in December and January. The Packers have four of their final five games at home and face the Dolphins, Texans and Lions — two dome teams and a hot-weather squad — in that stretch. The Bears get the Lions in Week 17, which could be a pivotal game for the NFC North. 

Prime Time Getting More Exclusive

There are a couple of teams that get shut out of the prime time windows each year, but this year that number was as high as I can remember. Five teams got blanked by the NFL schedule czars, including the Raiders, Jets, Titans, Dolphins and Cardinals. 

It’s easy to see why the league didn’t want to foist the Dolphins or Cardinals on the networks when they’re potentially about to renegotiate their TV deals, but it’s a little surprising the Raiders and Mendoza didn’t get at least a Thursday night draw. The Jets aren’t expected to be good but they’re a major market and that usually counts for something at the league office. 

What that means is a couple of surprising teams that aren’t usually big draws, like the Panthers and Falcons, got more prime time games than expected (three apiece). The league also leaned hard on playing the hits. The Rams and Bills each got seven prime time slots, and the Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers and Seahawks got six. 

Put another way, those six teams combined for 38 spotlight games while the other 26 squads split the remaining 72. 

(As an aside because this was interesting and I didn’t have another good spot to shoehorn it in, Arizona should be bracing for record poor ticket sales. Not only is the team projected to be bad at just a 4.5 win total from the sports books, but the schedule is backloaded with five of the final six games at home, plus the bye. It will be abundantly clear by then that the Cardinals are just playing out the string to get to next year.)

Falcons QB Situation On Display Early, Good Or Bad

Atlanta’s three prime time games come in a consecutive stretch in Weeks 3-5. The Falcons take on the Packers on the road on a Thursday night, get the Saints on the road on Monday Night Football in Week 4 (20 years after they were the opponent for the first game back in the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina), then face the Ravens at home on Sunday Night Football. 

That’s a big spotlight, and it’s going to fall hard on whoever is the quarterback for the team. At this stage, it feels like the odds slightly favor Tua Tagovailoa over Michael Penix Jr, as he’s not recovering from a torn ACL. Tagovailoa is also known for his accuracy which is a part of Penix’s game that he’s trying to clean up. Those factors could give him a leg up in the competition to start Week 1. 

But Tagovailoa is only going to keep the job for as long as he plays at an acceptable level. Island window games like that tend to magnify the reactions from fans and the media, whether it’s good or bad. If Tagovailoa flops on national television, the pressure to bench him will be an order of magnitude more intense than if the games were during the Sunday 1 pm window.

Those are all tough opponents, too. The Packers probably won’t have Micah Parsons but they’re still expected to be pushing for the NFC North title in 2026. The Ravens are in the mix of teams with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, and that environment for the Saints game is going to be raucous given the history. If the Falcons and Tagovailoa do well, that could go a long way toward getting things back on track for both sides. But if it doesn’t, Tagovailoa could be buried almost as soon as he begins. Once he’s benched, it becomes a lot harder to go back to him unless Penix just bombs. 

0-2 Watch

Week 2 is an important milestone in the NFL season, as teams that open the year 0-2 go on to make the playoffs just 10 percent of the time. A frontloaded schedule can put a team on the ropes before September even comes off the calendar. For players and coaching staffs that come into the year on the hot seat, those early losses can also ratchet up the pressure cooker, causing a snowball effect that’s tough to come back from. 

Here are some squads at risk of going 0-2 based on the first couple of weeks: 

Bengals

Cincinnati historically has started slow under HC Zac Taylor, regardless of how healthy QB Joe Burrow has or hasn’t been. The Bengals started 2-0 last year after losing Burrow in Week 1 but lapsed to 2-2 by the end of September. There’s still work to do to get that monkey off their back. 

The Bengals open 2026 by hosting the Buccaneers in Week 1, which should be a winnable, if close, matchup. They then go on the road for two weeks against the Texans and Steelers — two defenses with ferocious pass rushes that could give Cincinnati’s offense fits. If the Bengals have improved as much as they think they have, they should be able to handle that stretch. But a 1-2 or even an 0-3 start would reignite a host of alarm bells about how much has really changed in 2026 compared to the previous three seasons. 

Bills

Buffalo opens on the road against the Texans, who beat them last year in Houston. They then dive straight into a Thursday night matchup against the Lions. Expect the Bills to be favored in both games, but not by a big margin. Those are tough matchups for first-year HC Joe Brady from the jump, and an 0-2 start would not be a good debut. If any team can pull out of tough spots, it’s the Bills, but that’s not where they envision themselves being this season. 

Colts

Team owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon has a pretty clear win-or-else mandate for GM Chris Ballard and HC Shane Steichen coming into this season. Indianapolis’ most recent playoff appearance was back in 2020 and its last playoff win was 2018. The pressure is on — so naturally, they get the Ravens and Chiefs to start off the season. It would be hard to have a much tougher stretch, even if they get a less than 100 percent Mahomes in Week 2. On top of that, the Texans loom in Week 3, which is not the layup opponent you’d like to see to get in the win column. 

Commanders

As Washington looks to rebound from last year’s unfortunate setback following a run to the NFC title game in 2024, the team starts out with back-to-back road games against division rivals, taking on the Eagles and Cowboys. There was a significant gap between the Commanders and those two teams last year, so we’ll see quickly how much they’ve closed the gap and if it’s enough. Week 3 doesn’t bring any reprieve with the reigning champion Seahawks coming to town. An 0-3 start is very much on the table and that will spark some tough questions in Washington. 

Giants

As noted above, all the preseason optimism about the Giants is going to be put to the test quickly and in nationally televised games, quite possibly without Nabers. Division games are usually quite competitive, but the Rams in Week 2 will be solid favorites in all likelihood. 

Jets

I’ve already seen some people around the Jets refer to Week 1 against the Titans as a “must-win game” for HC Aaron Glenn, as the coach he replaced in New York, Titans HC Robert Saleh, and a few other former Jets are now with the rebuilding Titans. Glenn finished last year on the hot seat and the pressure will skyrocket if he can’t show some progress, and the sooner the better. Tennessee is a little further along in its rebuild than the Jets, as they have a quarterback they feel good about, but it would still be a bad look for a first-year head coach to best Glenn, let alone one who used to coach the Jets. 

If the Jets don’t beat the Titans, they could be waiting a while for a win. Their next three games are against the Packers, Lions and Bears. Glenn’s ability to hold the team together is going to be put to the test once again. 

Patriots

The schedule makers didn’t do the Patriots any favors by putting their Super Bowl rematch in Week 1. It’s a rare occurrence and the last time it happened was 2016 with Part II of the Panthers/Broncos Super Bowl. Denver prevailed on a game-winning field goal at the end and it felt like Carolina’s failure to get a small measure of redemption started a downward spiral that it’s just now perhaps starting to pull out of. 

There could be a similar psychological impact on the Patriots if they fall short again, especially with all of the other baggage around the team. They face natural challenges from the Super Bowl hangover and HC Mike Vrabel has come under fire for an affair with longtime reporter Dianna Russini. In Week 2, the Patriots host the Steelers, a team they have had a lot of success against over the years, but also not a pushover. An 0-2 start would amplify all of the noise around the Patriots and threaten to derail the whole season. 

Vikings

Lots of eyes will be on the Vikings in the summer to see how the quarterback competition pans out, even if Kyler Murray is the heavy favorite over J.J. McCarthy. Murray and Minnesota won’t be easing into things — they get the Packers and Bears right from the jump to start the season. There will be significant pressure on whoever starts under center and a bad start would increase the natural tendency for fans to call for the backup, particularly with how factioned Minnesota’s fanbase already feels between Murray and McCarthy.