2023 NFL Trade Deadline Grades & Analysis

The 2023 NFL trade deadline is officially in the books, and while it wasn’t as wild as last year we still saw a lot of action before the deadline. In total, there were eight trades over the past couple of days, including a few that qualify as major splashes: 

• The Seahawks dealt second and fifth-round picks to the Giants for DL Leonard Williams. 
• The Vikings traded for Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs via late-round pick swap, then turned around and sent former starting G Ezra Cleveland to the Jaguars for a sixth. 
• Buffalo got help at cornerback by trading a third for Packers CB Rasul Douglas and a fifth. 
• Washington shocked a lot of people and traded both star defensive ends. The Commanders sent DE Montez Sweat to the Bears for a second and DE Chase Young to the 49ers for one of their compensatory thirds. 

There were of course some other deals, but these are the ones that seem most likely to matter, both this season and beyond. Because some teams were involved in multiple deals, I’m breaking out the grades by team instead of by trade. 

49ers

Grade: A+

San Francisco’s acquisition of Young was my favorite deal before the deadline by far. I pegged the 49ers as a team that could make a splash and boy did they deliver, sending a pick that will probably be between No. 90 and No. 100 overall for a big-time pass rusher to juice a defense that’s suddenly lost its footing. 

Young has roared back this season after injuries derailed his career, costing him the bulk of the past two seasons and influencing Washington to decline his fifth-year option. The former No. 2 overall pick has five sacks in seven games. His pass rush win rate of 25 percent is 11th-best among edge rushers, and PFF has credited him with 38 total pressures which is tied for eighth-best. Young’s career looks like it’s back on the track everyone thought it was when he was named the defensive rookie of the year back in 2020. 

The 49ers’ defense has been one of the leading contributors in their current three-game losing streak after looking like one of the top units in football. While they already had a strong defensive line, they were getting a noticeable lack of production from the edge rushing spot across from DE Nick Bosa — Young’s former college teammate at Ohio State and the No. 2 pick the year before Young coincidentally. By adding Young, the 49ers have a chance to create the type of dominant front four that we’ve seen fuel Super Bowl victories in the past. 

So why did they only have to give up a late third? We’ll get into more of that discussion in the Commanders’ grade below, but the short answer is the league as a whole was treading cautiously around Young because of concerns about his knee injury and Young’s contract status, as it’s possible this ends up being only a rental for half a season. However, the upside for this deal for this price is still overwhelmingly in San Francisco’s favor. The situations are different, but there are some parallels to their trade for LT Trent Williams. The 49ers took a bit of a risk in that situation too, but ended up getting a game-changing talent at a discounted price. 

Even if this turns out to be just a half-season rental of Young for the 49ers, there’s a lot of upside here. The 49ers sent the third-round compensatory they received for losing Ran Carthon to the Titans GM job, but still have their regularly slotted third-round comp pick and are also expected to get another third-round compensatory pick for losing RT Mike McGlinchey in free agency this past offseason. If the 49ers let Young walk and he continues on the pace he’s on this season, they could easily be in line for another third-round compensatory pick in 2025. 

I would not discount the chances of San Francisco being able to keep Young, however. I outlined these reasons why the 49ers were potential buyers ahead of the trade deadline and they’re relevant when considering Young’s possible future in San Francisco: 

• The 49ers have $39 million in cap space and will roll over the vast majority of that to the 2024 season, which will be their available budget. 
• Outside of Young, the team doesn’t have a lot of prominent pending free agents. Former first-round DT Javon Kinlaw and backup QB Sam Darnold headline the list of players on expiring deals. 
• Starting QB Brock Purdy will make $985,000 in 2024 and won’t be eligible for a new deal until 2025. San Francisco has some strong extension candidates like WR Brandon Aiyuk and S Talanoa Hufanga but Purdy’s deal gives them massive flexibility to spend elsewhere on the roster. 
• They are back in the black with all of their own Day 1 and Day 2 draft picks after the Trey Lance trade, and will continue to have extra comp picks including third-rounders for losing Carthon and DeMeco Ryans this past offseason. 

The team has already invested major contracts in the defensive line with Bosa, DL Arik Armstead and DT Javon Hargrave, so extending Young might be viewed as overkill. However, both Armstead and Hargrave are going to be over 30 after this season while Young is still only 25. Obviously Young’s asking price will factor into this, but the 49ers have the short-term flexibility to extend Young now and figure everything else out down the road. If that’s how things pan out, this trade has the chance to turn into even more of a win. 

Bears

Grade: B

Chicago’s deal to send their upcoming second-round pick to Washington for Sweat drew a strong reaction — and not a positive one. Fans were confused why Chicago paid more for Sweat than Young when both were apparently available. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell and Seth Walder ripped the move, with the crux of their criticism essentially that giving up what looks like a high second-round pick for a player they could have signed in free agency was bad process and a big overpay. Former NFL GM Michael Lombardi also tore up the move because Chicago doesn’t have Sweat under contract past this season and lost a ton of leverage in contract talks by making the trade. Plenty of people drew comparisons to Chicago’s disastrous trade for WR Chase Claypool at the deadline last year, where they also gave up a second-round pick to address a need at a premium position. 

I think there are valid critiques to make about this trade but I would stop well short of calling it a disaster or horrible for the Bears. The comparisons to the Claypool trade are understandable but when you dig in, the situations are very different. Sweat is a far more established player than Claypool was, going on his fifth year of solid to good production as a starter. Claypool flashed his first two seasons but had not put it together as a consistent contributor, either on or off the field, and there were clear concerns that he had plateaued after a strong rookie season. Trading what proved to be the 32nd pick in the draft for him was a massive risk and we didn’t need hindsight to see that. 

It’s also clear the 2-6 Bears didn’t make this move with 2023 in mind, so criticisms about this trade being for a rental player don’t hold water in my view. If the Bears don’t extend Sweat’s contract, they deserve to be lambasted. However, Sweat has already proven himself at the NFL level, and I would not be surprised to see a deal get done in the coming weeks similar to last year when the Dolphins extended OLB Bradley Chubb shortly after acquiring him. Even if things don’t come together that fast, the Bears do have the franchise tag at their disposal and gobs of cap flexibility this coming offseason. 

As far as choosing Sweat over Young, time will tell if Chicago made the right move, but the general consensus coming out of the deadline was that evaluators liked Sweat more than Young due to the certainty factor. He has a more well-rounded game against the run and doesn’t come with the same durability concerns, although he’s two years older and has less upside. He has 6.5 sacks in eight games this season, and his 27 total pressures per PFF rank 24th. Some NFL evaluators would take Sweat over Chubb and Bears GM Ryan Poles acquired him with what will be a lower pick than what Miami paid, though maybe not that much lower considering the trajectories of both teams. 

If there’s a valid critique, I do think it’s ESPN’s criticism that Chicago overpaid by giving up a high second-round pick for the right to pay Sweat a monster deal. In terms of “value” — which is the ultimate guiding force for how ESPN and its analytics department judge these kinds of moves — there’s no question that the “optimal” move would have been banking the pick and signing the best available edge rusher in free agency. 

However, there are no guarantees that Chicago would have hit on the pick, while Sweat is pretty close to a known commodity at this point in his NFL career. Poles missed on the chances of having a young, cost-controlled asset on a rookie contract over the next four years, but the Bears have loads of cap space in the coming seasons. You know what they don’t have enough of? Good players. 

Sweat is a good player, and ultimately getting good players matters more than how you get them. 

Bills

Grade: B-

Buffalo had a big need at cornerback after losing Tre’Davious White to a torn Achilles earlier this season, and that prompted the move for Douglas. They did not get him for cheap, giving up a third-round pick in this coming draft. That pick has extra value for the Bills because their financial situation is tight in the coming years with major commitments to a number of core players, including QB Josh Allen. Hitting on rookies is pivotal for teams with big-money quarterbacks to balance out the roster and remain competitive. 

The Bills’ window to contend is still open, but there’s a sense that it’s starting to wobble. Buffalo is 5-3 on the season and has looked mortal, particularly with a number of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. That’s why the team felt it was worth it to go out and get Douglas despite the cost, as he helps address one of their biggest needs on that side of the ball. If he helps stabilize the roster and keep the window open, it will have been worth it. 

Getting a fifth-round pick back helps the Bills as they’re still at the same number of draft picks even if the hit rates in the fifth aren’t as good as in the third. Douglas is an experienced veteran who has played in a number of different schemes and is a good fit for all the zone defense the Bills play. He also has a knack for finding the ball and forcing turnovers, something the Bills haven’t been as good at recently.

That comes at the expense of getting burned sometimes as he’ll gamble on routes. Right now Douglas has allowed a 109.2 passer rating and three touchdowns, per PFF. But he’s also graded as their 18th-best corner and has a coverage grade of 79.6 that’s second among all cornerbacks. 

Although Douglas is still under contract in 2024, none of his $9 million cap hit is guaranteed and the Bills can get out of all of it. Considering he’s 28 years old and Buffalo is $29 million in the red in 2024 right now, there’s a high chance this is just a half-season rental. If Douglas is a key contributor for a deep playoff run, it’s a decent deal. Otherwise, it’s a miss for Bills GM Brandon Beane. 

Cardinals

Grade: C

With the pending return of QB Kyler Murray, even if it’s a week away still, Dobbs was no longer necessary in Arizona. So the Cardinals should get some credit for capitalizing on another team’s need for a quarterback and getting something back for a player who probably wouldn’t have been on the roster next season. 

That said, there’s room to criticize the overall process here. Arizona gave up a fifth-round pick and got back Dobbs and a seventh during the preseason when they decided they didn’t want to go with veteran QB Colt McCoy as the placeholder until Murray returned, or start out the season with fifth-round QB Clayton Tune. They’re trading the seventh they got back along with Dobbs for a sixth-round pick from the Vikings. 

While Arizona was surprisingly competitive and Dobbs played with more spunk than expected, the team still sits at 1-7 on the season. Dobbs was responsible for 11 total touchdowns but threw five interceptions and leads the NFL with eight fumbles. So after all that, the Cardinals moved down a round in the coming draft and got…what exactly? Overall the stakes are too low to give it much worse than a C. 

Commanders

Grade: C

It made a lot of sense for Washington to trade either Sweat or Young coming into Tuesday. Looking ahead to the coming offseason, one of them was probably headed for greener pastures in free agency with just one franchise tag at the Commanders’ disposal to keep one. It’s clear the team wasn’t going to contend for a Super Bowl this year even if they eventually squeaked into the playoffs in the NFC (go look at the teams vying for the No. 7 seed, it’s not pretty). 

The big curveball was Washington pulling the trigger on trading both, specifically trading Young after they’d already moved Sweat. And it says a lot of things about the direction this franchise is headed in. 

If we just look at the Sweat deal in a vacuum, a second-round pick is a great return for a player the team might have lost. He probably would have done well enough in free agency to qualify for a third-round compensatory pick but Washington would have had to lose more free agents than it signed and that would have been tricky with all the needs on the roster. The pick would have been in 2025, while this second is in the upcoming draft. While reports over the last few months indicated the Commanders liked Sweat more than Young and would keep him if given the choice, he also had more value to other teams. Ultimately it’s hard to fault Washington for making the deal that brought back the most value in return. 

What’s eyebrow-raising is turning around and trading away Young for just a late third. Washington could have kept Young around on the franchise tag, and even if they did have concerns about his longevity following his major knee injury, the tag would have given them another year to evaluate. The Commanders’ decision to make this move now tells me they did not plan to keep Young one way or another this offseason, and took the best offer on the table now. 

That signals huge changes are on the horizon for this team in 2024, even beyond what many figured might be in store with new owner Josh Harris taking over. If the team had no plans of keeping a breakout 25-year-old pass rusher, there are very few players on the roster who are safe going forward. 

Given the results in Washington over the past few years, it’s hard to argue the team doesn’t need a major reset. But if the goal is to acquire good players, I don’t understand how letting Young go for a late top-100 pick is good asset management. The Commanders will be hard-pressed to find someone as talented as Young in that range of the draft. Even if they wanted to move him, there’s a strong case to be made he would have commanded more as a tag-and-trade candidate after a breakout year than what they got for him Tuesday. 

Harris’ history has a sports owner has to be mentioned here. He greenlit the infamous “Process” in Philadelphia with former 76ers GM Sam Hinkie and has a reputation as an owner who’s willing to embrace the recommendation of his analytics department, even at the cost of significant short-term pain. The NFL works differently than the NBA, but trading both Young and Sweat is the kind of move you’d make if you were about to kick-start “The Process” in the NFL. 

Commanders QB Sam Howell looks way better than your typical fifth-round pick but there are still doubts about whether he’s any kind of long-term answer for the team at the most important position. So it would make sense for the team to be focused on acquiring as much draft value as possible, whether it be the number of picks or Washington’s draft slot. 

I think they did that with the Sweat trade. I’m not so sure the value of the Young trade was there. 

Giants

Grade: A

The Giants should get a ton of credit for maximizing the value of a player who was not in their future plans and was not a key piece of a winning team. Despite their success last year, GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll were aware they were taking on a multi-year rebuilding project, and the results in New York this season have reflected that. The Giants are 2-6 and look like one of the worst teams in football. 

Williams was in the final year of his deal, and it was pretty obvious the Giants would be hard-pressed to re-sign him at a price they felt comfortable with. The franchise tag was also not an option. One, the Giants probably will need it to keep RB Saquon Barkley. Two, Williams has been tagged twice before and a third tag would be extraordinarily cost-prohibitive. 

So it made all the sense in the world to eat the remainder of his $18 million base salary to get a second-round pick back, plus a fifth as a sweetener. A second-round pick is easily worth about $8 million in future cap space and the extra mid-rounder is a nice bonus. These picks have some extra value to the Giants given their quarterback situation, too. It either gives them more chances to find cost-controlled starters to fit around QB Daniel Jones’ sizable contract, or more capital to find an alternative to Jones after his 2023 regression. 

Jaguars

Grade: A-

NFL decision-makers get asked a lot about trading for offensive line help, and the stock response is no one trades quality offensive linemen because they’re too rare. Every team always feels like it never has enough. 

So Jacksonville getting Cleveland from the Vikings for just a sixth-round pick is notable. The Jaguars have had a revolving door at left guard. First it was Ben Bartch to start the season, but he was benched for poor play and was cut with the addition of Cleveland. Tyler Shatley got a look there as did Walker Little once Cam Robinson returned at left tackle and pushed him inside, but Little got hurt and Shatley has had some rough patches too. It’s a clear need for a team with big goals of contending this season. 

The Jaguars didn’t commit to Cleveland starting but that has to be the hope for this move. Current OL coach Phil Rauscher worked with him in Minnesota and that should help get Cleveland up to speed quickly. PFF has Cleveland currently rated as their eighth-highest graded guard in the league, so this has the potential to be a real impact move for Jacksonville. 

Now having said that, if Cleveland was really playing like the eighth-best guard in football, the Vikings probably wouldn’t have traded him and he would have had a much stronger market than just a sixth. Minnesota viewed guard as an issue this season and signed G Dalton Risner, which is what made Cleveland expendable before the deadline.

This would not be the first time PFF has been dramatically higher on an offensive lineman than the NFL consensus. While they have credited him with 10 pressures on 247 pass-blocking snaps, Cleveland is not in the top 20 for ESPN’s pass-block win rate or in the top 10 for run-block win rate. 

Still, a sixth-round pick is pennies to pay for a potential starting offensive lineman. Cleveland’s expiring contract is another factor in why the price was probably low, but this gives Jacksonville the added perk of a potential compensatory pick if they choose not to re-sign him. Overall, there’s a ton of upside and very little downside, hence the good grade. 

Packers

Grade: B+

Packers GM Brian Gutekunst said today they weren’t planning on trading Douglas but ultimately Buffalo’s offer was too good to pass up. So Green Bay shipped out their 28-year-old starting cornerback and team leader on a struggling defense and upgraded a fifth-round pick into a third for next offseason. It’s tough to argue with that value, especially for a team that’s 2-5 and entered deadline day on a four-game losing streak. 

The Packers now have two third-round picks next year along with two seconds stemming from the Aaron Rodgers trade and their own first-round pick, which right now would be No. 6 overall. It remains to be seen if their draft slot stays that low. Green Bay is a flawed team, with major problems on defense and a lot of youth on offense. Packers fans might not have wanted to hear it, but this was always going to be a year primarily about evaluation and getting a bead on what problems need to be solved in 2024. 

Trading Douglas will give the Packers another strong draft pick to either replenish the roster or go after a quarterback upgrade. The jury is still out on QB Jordan Love given how much his supporting cast has struggled but he hasn’t done a whole lot yet to inspire long-term confidence either. Without Douglas, the Packers can also get a look at a number of younger corners behind him in the secondary and see what their options in the future look like there. 

Seahawks

Grade: D

One of the things that led to a downturn for the Seahawks at the end of the last decade and the beginning of the 2020s was a roster that started springing leaks due to a series of short-term decisions. Seattle started drafting for need and immediate impact more than the best player available, and their hit rate cratered. They also traded a number of picks for players who were supposed to be impact veterans, with decidedly mixed results. 

After hitting the reset button by trading QB Russell Wilson, the Seahawks almost immediately became a team on the rise by going back to what made their initial dynasty successful in the first place. They found an undervalued and unheralded starter at quarterback again, journeyman Geno Smith this time, and knocked the 2022 draft out of the park. They landed a Pro Bowl cornerback, two starting tackles and a starting running back, helped in part by having extra picks from the Wilson trade. The 2023 class looks strong too, with CB Devon Witherspoon the headliner and a few other players in solid roles, plus 2022 second-rounder Boye Mafe emerging as a solid defensive end. Seattle made the playoffs in 2022 and currently are ahead of the 49ers for first place in the NFC West.

So it’s disappointing to see the Seahawks going back to old habits with the trade to acquire Williams from the Giants. Seattle obviously feels like it has a wide open window to compete this year and is looking to fortify a weakness, which in this case is the defensive line. The team needed more pass-rushing juice after losing OLB Uchenna Nwosu and there’s room for a disruptive interior player in the mix, too. Williams is certainly an upgrade over Mario Edwards and Myles Adams. 

While he only has 1.5 sacks so far this season, it doesn’t quite do Williams justice to cite just sacks. PFF so far has credited him with 22 pressures on 221 pass-rushing snaps. ESPN has him 13th among all defensive tackles with a pass rush win rate of 14 percent. This has been the theme throughout his career. Williams is a disruptive player but not necessarily the best at converting pressure to sacks. 

Williams is a solid player who will help the Seahawks at a position of need. But this was still a massive overpay, especially in comparison to some of the other deals that happened. Williams was in a similar situation in 2019, going into the final year of his deal and due a significant chunk of money. The Jets traded him to the Giants for a third and fourth-round pick. The Giants tagged Williams twice before paying him an exorbitant deal in part because they felt like they couldn’t let him walk after trading that much to get him. 

Four years later, the Seahawks paid even more in terms of draft capital to acquire Williams, even though they’re on the hook for less cash after the Giants picked up the bulk of the $9 million Williams was still owed for this season. He’s still due to be a free agent this offseason and the same franchise tag rules that would have made it unlikely the Giants tagged Williams apply to the Seahawks. There is an extraordinarily high chance the Seahawks gave up a second and a fifth for half a season of Williams. 

For this deal to even start to be close to worth it, Seattle probably needs to be playing in the Super Bowl, if not winning it. Even then the value is wonky, and it might not be any better if the Seahawks have to overpay Williams to stay following the season. The desire to maximize their chances to win this year is understandable, but the Seahawks are once again getting away from the formula that put them back into relevance. That’s not a good sign. 

Vikings

Grade: C+

Minnesota had an active Tuesday with two trades before the deadline, getting a potential new starting quarterback in Dobbs for the price of a late-round pick swap and shipping out their former starting left guard for a sixth originally from the Panthers. 

Still, this feels a little bit like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. Minnesota’s season took a massive hit when starting QB Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. Losing a starting quarterback midstream is a death knell 90 percent of the time, let alone when it’s someone playing as well as Cousins was. Dobbs was better than expected in Arizona but the Cardinals were still 1-7 and Dobbs had an issue with turnovers. But the Vikings had to do something and they didn’t give up anything of value to roll the dice on Dobbs. 

Trading Cleveland was interesting because a sixth-round pick for a starting offensive lineman is low. Minnesota clearly didn’t rate him that highly, and if they were willing to trade him for peanuts he probably was on the verge of losing his starting job to Risner. Cleveland was in the final year of his contract and was not drafted by this regime, so there weren’t as many allegiances to him in the building. It’s worth wondering whether the Vikings could have gotten a higher comp pick but it’s understandable they took the bird in the hand.