2024 NFL Head Coaching Cycle Matchmaker

It’s not a stretch to say this is the most seismic coaching cycle in the NFL in years. There was the usual round of Black Monday firings with the Commanders and Falcons letting their head coaches go, neither of which was much of a surprise. But in the three days after that, the Titans fired HC Mike Vrabel, the Seahawks forced out HC Pete Carroll and the Patriots parted ways with the greatest NFL head coach of all time, Bill Belichick. 

All three have been fixtures on the list of top NFL coaches for years, but the league moves fast. The Patriots named LB coach Jerod Mayo the successor to Belichick the day after and for better or worse they’re moving into the future. Seven remaining teams with coaching vacancies will also spend the next few weeks looking ahead, and more teams could join them with unsettled situations in Dallas and Philadelphia worth monitoring. 

Here’s a look at the current open coaching vacancies and the best match to fill each one. You can find the candidates who have been linked to teams or requested for interviews at our 2024 NFL HC & GM Tracker:

Atlanta Falcons: Former Patriots HC Bill Belichick

When Falcons owner Arthur Blank decided to fire HC Arthur Smith after three straight 7-10 seasons, he was making a specific statement. Smith and GM Terry Fontenot were hired at the same time in 2021 and had a mess of a situation to dig out of. Atlanta’s salary cap situation was legitimately the worst in the league and it took two years to fix. They also had to chart a path forward at quarterback with veteran Matt Ryan at what proved to be the end of his career. 

Blank says everyone, including himself, Fontenot and Smith, was on board with the decision to gamble on QB Desmond Ridder in 2023. Smith is the only one who lost his job. Thanks to the power of deductive reasoning, it’s fair to say Blank thought Smith underachieved with the roster he assembled alongside Fontenot — and a new coach could get more out of the team and possibly give the 81-year-old Blank a chance at a Super Bowl ring. 

Replacing Smith with a first-time head coach would be a gamble, but fortunately for Blank it happens to be a strong year for proven coaching candidates with established resumes. (Had it not been, perhaps Smith is still in Atlanta preparing for Year 4). There are a plethora of big names available to hire and Blank will have options, whether it’s Vrabel, Belichick or Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh. 

Only one of those men has won a Super Bowl, however. Any team who hires Belichick understands the 72-year-old coach is not a long-term solution. He’s probably only there for as long as it takes him to catch Don Shula for the wins record, which is 15 total or 26 for just the regular season. But for Blank, prioritizing the short-term over the future should be just fine. It’s worth noting at this point the Falcons are the only team to meet with Belichick, though that doesn’t mean they won’t have competition to land him. 

Belichick has proven to still be a strong defensive coach and should be able to elevate that side of the ball in Atlanta to a level they haven’t seen in a long, long time. On offense, there’s a lot of talent to work with and that could offset Belichick’s poor track record when it comes to personnel decisions over the past several years. He does still need to figure out the quarterback position, and like so many coaches who have come from his tree, there are questions about how the New England philosophy translates outside of New England. 

But hiring the greatest coach of all time is a roll of the dice worth making. 

Carolina Panthers: Buccaneers OC Dave Canales

It’s fair to say the Panthers are at the bottom of the NFL totem pole right now. Not only do they have the NFL’s worst record and the No. 1 pick — which they’ll send to the Bears as a result of their trade last year to No. 1 to pick QB Bryce Young — but things have somehow seemed to just keep getting worse under owner Dave Tepper. He took over in 2018 and since then the Panthers have had six straight losing seasons. 

During that time, Tepper earned a reputation as an impatient, meddling and hot-tempered owner. I hesitate to say things hit rock bottom when he was caught on video throwing a drink on a fan during a loss to the Jaguars in Week 17 — because there’s certainly room for things to still get worse — but there’s no question that moment was emblematic of Tepper’s struggles in his first several years as an owner.

The harsh reality is the Panthers will face a stacked deck against them when it comes to luring the top coaching candidates. Anyone who has options will likely have options perceived as better than the Panthers. 

It’s not all bad, however. History says the NFL and all of us in the peanut gallery are horrendous at projecting which hires will be successful and which will flop. The Lions were perceived as having an awful job that no one wanted when they hired HC Dan Campbell. Since then, Campbell has turned the team around and just snapped a three-decade playoff victory drought. So missing out on the hot candidate can be a blessing in disguise. 

At this time a year ago, the conversation around the Houston Texans sounded remarkably similar to how the Panthers are being viewed. The Texans had just fired coaches in back-to-back seasons, had an owner who was the punchline of jokes around the NFL and a front office plagued by leaks and in-fighting. Now after appearing to hit on a coach and a quarterback, they’re in the playoffs and the vibes are back to being good. 

Winning is like deodorant — it covers up a lot. If the Panthers make the right hire this year, things can turn around fast. It’s fair to doubt Tepper’s ability to make a positive hire but even the worst owners can get lucky sometimes. 

Right now the Panthers’ head coaching search has a heavy lean toward candidates from the offensive side of the ball, which makes sense considering modern trends in the NFL and the presence of Young, whose career is already in need of revitalizing just months after he arrived as the hopeful franchise savior. They’re aiming high with Johnson, but landing him feels a little too ambitious considering the current state of things. I think Tepper will still want to hire a young offensive mind, so these are the alternatives currently on their interview list, along with their age: 

• Bengals OC Brian Callahan (39)
• Buccaneers OC Dave Canales (42)
• Dolphins OC Frank Smith (42)
• Eagles OC Brian Johnson (36)
• Ravens OC Todd Monken (57)
• Texans OC Bobby Slowik (36)

Admittedly I don’t have much of a read beyond that on which candidate the Panthers will eventually settle on. Smith’s background on the offensive line and down-to-earth demeanor are positives for him, while Callahan has a long track record in Cincinnati and Slowik is one of the young rising stars. But I think Canales would be a fascinating hire.

He’s been a common thread in two breakout quarterback seasons now after working as the QB coach for Geno Smith in Seattle and the play-caller for Baker Mayfield in Tampa this past season. The Bucs’ offense took a big leap forward despite similar or arguably worse personnel, and there have been positive reports on Canales’ ability to relate to players. It would also have the added benefit of making a division rival worse, although Canales would qualify the Buccaneers for two third-round picks as a minority hire. 

Ultimately there are a lot of interesting ways the Panthers can go with this hire, and for the sake of their fanbase, I hope they get it right. 

Las Vegas Raiders: Interim HC Antonio Pierce

It’s not unique that the Raiders are in a position where they have to decide between elevating an interim head coach who far and away exceeded expectations or a more recognizable outsider. Heck, Las Vegas faced this same dilemma two years ago and passed on retaining Rich Bisaccia in favor of hiring Josh McDaniels. 

What is unique is how vociferously the Raiders locker room has come out in support of retaining Pierce, perhaps influenced by how poorly Raiders owner Mark Davis’ decision to pick McDaniels over Bisaccia aged. Raiders DE Maxx Crosby has gone so far as to say he will request a trade if Davis doesn’t promote Pierce, who went 5-4 once Las Vegas let McDaniels go midseason and promoted him from LB coach. There is a rare level of momentum behind Pierce, who has also drawn outside interest from the Titans and Falcons. 

That’s seemingly been enough to sway Davis from his belief that he needs a star coach in an environment like Las Vegas with lots of competition for attention. Davis’ last two hires were McDaniels and Jon Gruden, and there were reports linking the Raiders to Harbaugh after the two sides flirted in 2015. 

However, at this point it seems like there’s more momentum between Harbaugh and another team. Las Vegas cleared the runway to officially hire Pierce by conducting in-person interviews with former Bills DC Leslie Frazier and former Saints assistant Kris Richard to satisfy the Rooney Rule requirements. Neither of them coached this past season and as a result were available to interview in person before January 22.

While it’s not official until it’s official, there are just too many reasons it makes sense to stick with Pierce, including his success down the stretch and the fallout in the locker room if he’s not hired. If Pierce is ultimately successful in Las Vegas, it will be because he embodies the type of gritty, player-centric culture that we’ve seen be successful in Detroit under Campbell, and ultimately proves to be just as strong of a leader and crafty a decision-maker. 

Los Angeles Chargers: Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh

The Chargers are in an interesting spot as a kind of in-between team. The hardest part is done and the quarterback position is solved with Justin Herbert. But the rest of the roster needs work. The Chargers are way over the 2024 cap and will need to figure out what to do with a few aging veterans. 

Still, the expectation for a team quarterbacked by Herbert is to contend for a playoff spot, and the Chargers will likely focus on finding a coach who can get the Chargers to exceed expectations for once rather than fall short. That’s one thing Harbaugh has been able to do at every stop along the way for his coaching career, whether it’s Stanford, San Francisco or Michigan. 

There are real questions about how Harbaugh will adjust back to the NFL after years away and how long it will take the prickly coach to wear out his welcome, but there’s a reason there’s so much buzz about mutual interest between Los Angeles and Harbaugh. The Chargers have an uphill battle in their home market as the second-fiddle football team, and Harbaugh gives them a big-name coach to compete with the Rams. 

Los Angeles still has to complete its search, including satisfying the Rooney Rule with another in-person interview with a minority candidate, but right now all signs point to Harbaugh getting the nod as the next coach. 

Tennessee Titans: Rams DC Raheem Morris

The Titans have set themselves the lofty goal of trying to improve from a coach who opened his career with four straight winning seasons and coach of the year honors in 2021. Despite two straight losing seasons, most still consider Vrabel to be one of the top coaches in the NFL and Tennessee will be hard-pressed to upgrade. When it comes to head coaching hires, it’s easier to get worse than it is to get better most of the time. 

Titans ownership has indicated finding someone who works better with GM Ran Carthon is a priority, and the big buzzword is “collaboration.” Tennessee’s interview list is evenly divided between coaches with backgrounds on either offense or defense, so that doesn’t seem to be as much of a factor. If we take collaboration literally, the only coach on the list that Carthon has worked with in the past is Slowik, as the two overlapped in San Francisco. 

There are some strong selling points to Slowik as a candidate, including his background in the Shanahan offense, his early success with Texans first-round QB C.J. Stroud, and his youth. The Titans are in the middle of a rebuild and there’s an opportunity for a young coach to come on board and grow alongside the team. The biggest question about Slowik is whether he’s ready for the responsibility of a head coaching job, so a team willing to let him learn on the job makes the most sense. 

But if Slowik isn’t ready to take the plunge or chooses a different opening, don’t rule out Morris. I wouldn’t classify him as a lock to get a head coaching job this cycle, but he’s overdue and the work he’s done with the Rams on defense this year has generated a lot of buzz. He has previous head coaching experience to lean on from when he was younger in Tampa Bay, and he’s worked on both sides of the ball, including as the WR coach under Kyle Shanahan for two years in Atlanta. Rams players rave about his leadership and character, particularly the work he did to try and stabilize the team last year when Rams HC Sean McVay wasn’t at his best. 

While Morris and Carthon have never directly worked together, they share a lot of connections. Carthon got his start with the Falcons in 2008 as a pro scout just before Morris got Tampa Bay’s head coaching job. He spent four years with the Rams under GM Les Snead, then joined San Francisco in 2017 under new GM John Lynch who arrived alongside Shanahan. He rose through that front office until being hired by the Titans last year. If the two men haven’t already met, there will be no shortage of people they can talk to in order to gauge how well they’d “collaborate.” 

Seattle Seahawks: Cowboys DC Dan Quinn

Seattle’s move to oust Carroll might have been the biggest shock of the hiring cycle. I thought Carroll had quieted the doubters by not skipping much of a beat after moving on from Russell Wilson last year. But Seattle missed the playoffs at 9-8 this year and didn’t take the step forward a lot of people anticipated, so Seahawks owner Jody Allen made the plunge. 

I suspect there were other reasons Seattle made the move now, like the opportunity to secure the preferred replacement long-term for the 72-year-old Carroll. Rumors surfaced this season that Quinn was the top choice for the Seahawks as a contingency for Carroll’s potential retirement given his background with the organization. Quinn has had three different coaching stints in Seattle during the peak of their dynasty but has also had plenty of success in his other coaching stops. He reached a Super Bowl with the Falcons and has coached the Cowboys to three straight top-ten scoring defense finishes. 

If Seattle learned through the grapevine there was a high chance Quinn would leave Dallas this offseason instead of foregoing a head coaching job for the third straight cycle, it could have created a greater sense of urgency that superseded giving Carroll another season. In his final presser, Carroll talked about doing the right thing for the organization even though he “competed” to stay in his position. In a presser on Tuesday, Seahawks GM John Schneider said the “clear directive” from Allen was to hire someone who would keep the “positive culture, everything that’s been created here, everything in this building.”

Maybe I’m reading too much between the lines, but all of this feels like it points to Quinn. The Seahawks still have to conduct a full search and they’ll likely have some competition for Quinn, particularly if the Cowboys make a move with HC Mike McCarthy. But with his connections to the organization, Seattle could finally be the type of job that compels Quinn to leave his great setup in Dallas. 

Washington Commanders: Lions OC Ben Johnson

There is a lot to like about the job in Washington despite the team being bad enough to earn the No. 2 overall pick. That selection gives the team a path to fixing its longstanding issue at the quarterback position with at least two elite prospects in the 2024 draft class. Washington also is near the top of the leaderboard when it comes to cap space this coming offseason, giving the team plenty of ammunition to patch holes on a roster that isn’t completely devoid of talent. New owner Josh Harris is also a positive selling point, particularly compared to the previous regime. 

That’s why it’s no shocker the Commanders have been heavily linked to Johnson, one of the top candidates available and probably the best option if a team is prioritizing youth and a background on offense. His work with the Lions the past two years has been exceptional and he’s been one of the most important figures in their rise back to prominence.

For Johnson’s part, he was patient last year and skipped the chance to interview for jobs, and now he’ll be able to reap the rewards with the ability to pick his landing spot. For the reasons outlined above, I think he’d prefer Washington. 

We’ll see how it all shakes out in the end, but the hope for the Commanders is that Johnson can provide the same blend of leadership and cutting-edge scheme that has made coaches like Shanahan, McVay and others so successful.

Wait, what about Mike Vrabel?

I’m sure you’re wondering why Vrabel hasn’t been matched up with a team yet despite being regarded so highly in NFL circles. There are a lot of things that go into these decisions for teams beyond just hiring the “best” coach. The fact that the Titans fired Vrabel is proof of that. 

Since being let go by Tennessee, there’s been remarkably little buzz about Vrabel’s next prospects. He was heavily linked to the Patriots’ opening but New England put the kibosh on that by promptly hiring Mayo the day after letting Belichick go. Since then, there’s been no word. Perhaps things are happening behind the scenes that the public isn’t privy to, as Vrabel was far less “leaky” in Tennessee than most coaches and coaches of his stature don’t just “interview” for jobs. 

But for the time being, that leaves Vrabel in limbo in an exercise like this. The Falcons and Chargers would be great fits, but both appear to have their sights set on other big-name targets. The Raiders appear to be sticking with Pierce. Washington is another team that seems to have a different top target. There would be power dynamic questions in Seattle with Vrabel and Schneider. 

And while Vrabel would be a home run hire for the Panthers on the surface, there are reasons why both sides might not be eager about the fit. Carolina has focused on finding a coach with an offensive background, which doesn’t fit Vrabel. The coach might also be wary of taking another job with a mercurial owner, to say nothing of the other questions on the roster. 

Dallas and Philadelphia are the two wildcards here. If either team or both fire incumbent head coaches Mike McCarthy and Nick Sirianni, it will throw a big fat plot twist into all of this. Both are desirable jobs with strong rosters, quality quarterbacks and organizations that are largely well-regarded. Vrabel would be a serious candidate for either job. 

Those potential vacancies could also shake things up elsewhere. For instance, if Cowboys owner Jerry Jones lures Belichick to Dallas instead of Atlanta, Vrabel would become one of the top candidates for what the Falcons are looking for this cycle. 

Of the two, my initial thought is the Cowboys seem likelier to fire McCarthy than the Eagles do to fire Sirianni. There are three years of more or less the same results from McCarthy, while Sirianni was coaching the Super Bowl less than a year ago. But at this point, both situations feel truly up in the air.