Two weeks ago, before the NFL Scouting Combine and free agency, we took a look at the potential trade destinations that made the most sense for the Bears and QB Justin Fields. It was one of the most interesting questions of the offseason, as while several teams needed a new starting quarterback, there wasn’t a clean, obvious fit for Fields.
We highlighted the Falcons, Vikings, Steelers, Raiders and Seahawks as the best fits for Fields. Since then:
- The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a monster deal
- The Vikings pivoted to a $10 million deal for Sam Darnold
- The Steelers signed Russell Wilson to compete with Kenny Pickett
- The Raiders “kicked the tires” on Fields — then gave Gardner Minshew $15 million guaranteed on a two-year deal to “compete” with Aidan O’Connell
Lastly, on Thursday the Seahawks traded the equivalent of a late third-round pick to the Commanders for QB Sam Howell to give them a young upside backup and possible competition for starting QB Geno Smith, which is the type of move we thought could prompt them to have interest in Fields.
That illustrates how not only are Fields’ options for a starting job looking nonexistent, the No. 2 roles available for teams are drying up quickly too. The Giants, Colts, Commanders, Patriots and others all moved to secure backup quarterbacks for the coming season. The Bears face a radically different quarterback market than they did two weeks ago.
There’s a bit of a narrative tug-of-war about whether the Bears have a tepid market for Fields or if they’re the ones hitting the brakes until they can finish their due diligence on USC QB Caleb Williams. But it’s immaterial. All signs point to Williams being the pick and the new franchise hope for Chicago. Once that happens, it makes far more sense for both Fields and the Bears for a clean break for both sides to pursue what’s next.
Recalibrating Fields’ Value
There was one particularly eyebrow-raising line in an ESPN buzz notebook ahead of free agency where sources told reporters Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano that Fields wasn’t viewed as more of a sure thing in NFL circles than Sam Darnold or Drew Lock. Maybe one day that will go in the catalog of dumb things said by NFL personnel but reality bore that out this week. Darnold landed a solid deal and starting job from Minnesota, while Lock was scooped by the Giants. Fields remains in limbo.
The quote also illustrates how the NFL views Fields right now — as a lottery ticket. His trade value will reflect that and not that of a starting-level quarterback, even if Fields is good enough to be one of the 32 best quarterbacks playing right now. His contract also plays a role. The good news for the Bears is they have not already exercised his fifth-year option, which would have shrunk his trade value to zero. Either the Bears or a new team will decline the option, and Fields will be owed $3.2 million guaranteed in 2024, the final year of his original rookie deal. That’s cost-effective for a backup.
Two of Fields’ 2021 draft classmates have already been traded. Mac Jones fetched the Patriots a sixth-round pick from the Jaguars after they shopped him for a fifth. The Cowboys gave a fourth to the 49ers for Trey Lance last preseason. Jets QB Zach Wilson will be the third to be traded, if the Jets don’t end up just having to cut him, and he’ll go for a seventh or less most likely because he’s owed $5.5 million for 2024.
The deal Washington got for Howell might actually be a best-case scenario, as it nets out to a late third or early fourth depending on which trade value chart you use. Washington got picks No. 78 and 152 while giving up No. 102 and No. 179. Something between that and either a fourth or fifth-round pick straight up is likely what the Bears are looking at in return for Fields right now.
That could conceivably change if the rest of the picture does. Some team could lose a starter due to injury or some other unforeseen circumstance. There will be discussions at Halas Hall about how long the team will be willing to wait in the hopes of raising Fields’ value. Maybe they could carry both him and Williams into the summer but adding that extra level of scrutiny and pressure for Williams does not seem worth a round of trade value to me.
At any rate, here a refreshed look at potential suitors for Fields if we change our search criteria to teams looking for a cheap, high-upside backup.
The Frontrunners
To me, these teams make the most sense as a potential landing spot.
Ravens
The current backup for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is Josh Johnson, a 37-year-old who’s had a 14-year career, eight of them in the NFL. Baltimore has sniffed around finding a better backup in the past year or so, inquiring with Baker Mayfield last offseason before he ultimately signed in Tampa Bay. They’ve had some cap limitations and haven’t wanted to spend a whole lot in this area, although their need for a backup was exposed in 2021 and 2022 when Jackson missed nine games total.
Fields would be a massive upgrade over Johnson and one of the few quarterbacks who could come close to replacing the dual-threat ability of Jackson. The Ravens have two fourth-round picks and a fifth this year to work with as potential compensation. Giving one of those straight up for one year of Fields as a backup would be steep, but some kind of creative swap might work instead.
The other factor to keep in mind — and one the Ravens will be well aware of — is that Fields would likely qualify for a compensatory pick when he becomes a free agent in 2025. That would potentially offset what the Ravens give up and depending on what happens in 2024 could even net out a better pick for Baltimore. The Ravens are already one of the most conscientious organizations about working the comp pick formula, so threading the needle for a pick for Fields wouldn’t be a burden.
Rams
Los Angeles is another team in the market for a backup quarterback this offseason. They also are operating with a budget, with only about $6 million in effective cap space as things stand right now per Over The Cap. That’s a moving target — for instance a likely restructure for OL Joseph Noteboom has not been processed yet and there are some other levers the Rams can pull for space. But the point is they are going to be biased towards cheaper options, which is where Fields’ $3.2 million salary comes in.
It’s not the minimum but the Rams also likely wouldn’t be able to sign a quarterback who checks off the box of competence that they’re looking for at just the minimum rate. Rather than taking a flyer on a rookie on Day 3, they could use one of their two fifth-rounders or four sixth-rounders to get more of a proven commodity in Fields.
While Fields ordinarily would be a bit of a weird fit in the Rams’ system, HC Sean McVay is an accomplished play-caller and could work around Fields’ limitations for a short game stretch if he had to step in. Fields would also bring a different dynamic with his mobility that a creative mind like McVay could exploit. In the past, the Rams have leaned towards backups with mobility even with starters who were primarily landlocked in the pocket. John Wolford and Bryce Perkins are two examples and even 2023 fourth-round QB Stetson Bennett can scoot, with a 4.67-second 40-yard dash at the Combine. Fields is leaps and bounds above all three as a runner and passer.
The Rams are another team conscious of the compensatory pick formula and gaming it to their advantage. In 2022, that was part of the calculus in claiming Mayfield off waivers from the Panthers (along with being in a bind due to injuries at the position). Los Angeles ended up getting a sixth from the five games Mayfield played. They could try to do something similar with Fields.
Chargers
Los Angeles’ backup for QB Justin Herbert right now is last year’s seventh-rounder Max Duggan, who spent most of last year on the practice squad. If the Chargers are content to go cheap at the position, which they did for four years before with former backup QB Easton Stick, then Duggan is sufficient. But if he has to play, odds are it will look like when Stick was pressed into the lineup this year. While he completed 63.8 percent of his passes and tossed three touchdowns to one interception, Los Angeles went 0-4, including a 63-21 loss to the Raiders. All of Stick’s passing touchdowns came in garbage time of that game and he took 14 sacks.
With new Chargers OC Greg Roman known as a running game savant, especially with a mobile quarterback, Fields presents an intriguing option as a backup. He could even be a special package player and bring added value that way. New Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh would be familiar with Fields from his time at Michigan, though they only faced off once in a blowout Ohio State win.
The Chargers don’t have extra picks, except in the seventh round, and they’re a rebuilding team that might not want to devote a pick to a backup quarterback. However, new GM Joe Hortiz has a background with the Ravens and their compensatory pick-savvy ways, and a trade for Fields could be viewed as a future investment.
Sure, Why Not?
Teams with a history of being opportunistic and creative who could be interested if the price drops low.
Eagles
Eagles GM Howie Roseman has said in the past they want to be a “quarterback factory.” That got him made fun of in Philadelphia but the idea of investing in cheap quarterbacks as backups and potential trade chips is sound. If Fields’ market sags to the fifth round or later, the Eagles could flip a pick for him to groom for a year behind QB Jalen Hurts, then either exchange him for a comp pick or possibly even trade him again at the deadline. The other factor is the Eagles are one of the few teams that wouldn’t have to change their offense dramatically with Fields as the starter.
Chiefs
The rationale for the Chiefs is similar to the Eagles, which makes sense given HC Andy Reid‘s roots. They also don’t have a viable backup quarterback on the roster right now, and while Fields might not be the best match for Reid’s West Coast system, his mobility offers a dangerous weapon to offset that.
49ers
The 49ers might be content with Brandon Allen at backup after talking him up last preseason. One of the factors in trading Lance was to avoid exposing Allen to waivers. However, if the 49ers want a more accomplished backup quarterback, they could take a shot on Fields the same way they took a shot on Darnold last year. The 49ers have three picks in the fourth round and one in the fifth.
The other factor to consider here is how HC Kyle Shanahan wanted to add a mobile threat to his offense to help stay ahead of the curve and it led the 49ers to take Lance in 2021. Adding Fields now would be another way to do that, except at a far cheaper cost. Shanahan passed on Fields in 2021 so his evaluation of the quarterback might not have been so rosy, but it’s something to think about.
Longshots, But Worth Mentioning
Jets
The Jets passed on Fields in 2021 for Wilson, who they’re now trying to trade for whatever they can get. New York has its starter in Aaron Rodgers and spent on Tyrod Taylor as a backup, but Taylor has a lengthy injury history. The Jets have been linked heavily to the third tier of quarterbacks in this class and are expected to select a new developmental option sometime on Day 3 of the draft. They could consider taking that pick and investing it in Fields, but the fact that he has just one year remaining on his contract instead of a brand-new four-year rookie deal is a major negative from their perspective.
Broncos
The Broncos are the only quarterback-needy team that hasn’t invested in an outside option yet, although they’ve poked around the market. Right now it seems most likely that the team will target a rookie to go along with bridge veteran Jarrett Stidham. Broncos HC Sean Payton would probably have some of the same frustrations with Fields that he did with Wilson, as Fields also tends to hold the ball too long and can be tentative attacking the middle of the field. Broncos GM George Paton also passed on Fields in 2021 despite a major need at quarterback, so you can connect the dots that they didn’t necessarily have a glowing scouting report on him. But if the draft doesn’t go Denver’s way, there are worse investments than a Day 3 pick to roll the dice on Fields.
Vikings
Even though the Vikings signed Darnold, Fields is cheap and would represent another chance at finding a long-term starter. The challenge will be trading with an NFC North rival. Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has shown he doesn’t care, but will the Bears feel the same, especially when it’s a quarterback? The optics of Fields becoming a star for a division rival would be awful for Chicago.
Raiders
Similar to the Vikings, Fields is cheap enough that the Raiders’ other investments at quarterback don’t necessarily shut the door completely. However, it’d be a lot less likely. Trading for Fields would push someone to third on the depth chart, either Fields or O’Connell most likely. Las Vegas does like O’Connell’s potential as a backup and they didn’t give Minshew $15 million not to play. The presence of former Bears OC Luke Getsy here also probably doesn’t do Fields any favors. The two men have downplayed any direct tension or conflict between them, but it was obvious over two years together that neither were equipped to help showcase the best the other had to offer.
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