NFLTR Review: Are Pocket Passers Going Extinct?

By
Logan Ulrich
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Thanks for checking out another week of NFLTR Review! With just six days until the draft, we have a packed issue, including:

  • Are pocket passers on the verge of extinction in the NFL?
  • Trevor Lawrence’s potential massive impact on both the Jaguars & the NFL
  • How many WRs deserve a HOF bid before Julian Edelman?
  • All the latest draft buzz & more!

The Big Picture: Are Pocket Passers Going Extinct? 

The NFL has come a long way in how it evaluates the quarterback position. Over the past 10 years, the prototype has changed dramatically and the league as a whole has become much more open-minded to what success at the position can look like. 

Guys like Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray who might have been second-round picks at best 10-15 years ago went No. 1 overall back-to-back. Teams aren’t necessarily looking for the next Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, big and tall pocket statues who can break down the defense with their mind and deliver the football. 

Instead, the new ideal looks more like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. Teams covet quarterbacks who can create when the structure of the play breaks down and put the defense in a bind with both their arm and their legs. 

In fact, not having a mobile element to their game is now being viewed as a major negative and limiting factor. Having just a pure pocket passer puts more pressure on the offensive line to protect for longer, the receivers to get open quicker and — unless the quarterback has a Hall of Fame brain like Manning or Brady — the play-caller to call a great game. It’s not impossible to win with just a pure pocket passer but it does reduce the margin for error, sometimes significantly. 

This draft class has been a good example of that dynamic. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance are all compelling as both passers and runners. BYU’s Zach Wilson crashed the party after a sensational 2020 season, and while he’s not the running talent the first three are, he’s among the best at extending the play and creating out of structure. 

Then there’s Alabama QB Mac Jones. A huge season at Alabama put him in the first-round conversation, but the media narrative had him well below the first four because he’s not dynamic in the same way. He’s a clear pocket-only passer. His body looks like a rec-league referee, and for as productive as he was last year, he had the benefit of a loaded offense at Alabama. 

Despite all of that, Jones is a realistic possibility to be selected by the 49ers at No. 3 overall, and his floor is probably closer to No. 15 than the end of the first round like many people originally expected. The backlash to Jones’ rise from fans, analysts and other executives inside the league is proof that the model for quarterbacks is changing, as he’s the type of player who would have been a sure-fire top-ten pick in the past. 

How the league has changed

It’s a rudimentary way to look at things, but breaking down the league’s starting quarterbacks the same way Rivals does coming out of high school into either pro-style and dual-threat reveals how the league has shifted. For the sake of nuance, and because mobility is a spectrum, I added a third category for quarterbacks that were mobile but maybe not true dual-threats. Then I went back to look at 2011 and categorize every quarterback who had at least 100 passing attempts. 

Pro-style Scrambler Dual-threat
Matthew Stafford Ryan Fitzpatrick
Josh Freeman
Drew Brees Tony Romo
Cam Newton
Tom Brady Andy Dalton
Tarvaris Jackson
Eli Manning Ben Roethlisberger
Michael Vick
Philip Rivers Aaron Rodgers Tim Tebow
Matt Ryan Alex Smith
Vince Young
Mark Sanchez Jay Cutler
Seneca Wallace
Joe Flacco
Jason Campbell
  
Matt Hasselbeck
Donovan McNabb
  
Colt McCoy
    
Rex Grossman
    
Blaine Gabbert
    
Sam Bradford
    
Matt Moore
    
Carson Palmer
    
Matt Schaub
    
Christian Ponder
    
John Skelton
    
Matt Cassel
    
Kevin Kolb
    
Kyle Orton
    
Curtis Painter
    
Dan Orlovsky
    
Tyler Palko
    
T.J. Yates    
John Beck    
Chad Henne
    
Caleb Hanie
    

*Sorted by pass attempts

Well over half of the 44 qualifying quarterbacks, 28 to be specific, fell into the pro-style, pocket passer category. Nine were in the in-between category — players like Romo and Roethlisberger who still primarily won from the pocket but could scramble to buy time and hurt defenses with their legs if they got loose. 

Just seven could be considered legitimate dual-threats, but already the beginnings of the shift could be seen with how the Panthers deployed Newton as a rookie. The zone read exploded the following season with Robert Griffin, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick and Pandora was out of the box in terms of dual-threat quarterbacks. 

The pipeline of first-round quarterbacks entering the league — the guys the league thinks have the best chance to be the future at the position — make it clear that the success of the 2011 and 2012 classes marked a turning point. 

2012: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden

Scrambler, dual-threat, dual-threat, pocket passer

2013: E.J. Manuel

Scrambler

2014: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater

Scrambler, scrambler, pocket passer

2015: Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota

Scrambler, dual-threat

2016: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz

Pocket passer, dual-threat

2017: Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes

Scrambler, dual-threat, dual-threat

2018: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson

Scrambler, scrambler, dual-threat, pocket passer, dual-threat

2019: Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins

Dual-threat, dual-threat, pocket passer. 

2020: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love

Scrambler, scrambler, dual-threat, scrambler

2021: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones

Dual-threat, scrambler, dual-threat, dual-threat, pocket passer. 

There are a couple of other reasons the prototypical NFL quarterback has changed. The proliferation of the spread offense at the college level reduced the number of prospects running traditional NFL offenses. With the reduction in practice time from the 2011 CBA, coaches had less time to install their full, in-depth, complicated schemes and were forced to adjust, meeting their rookie prospects halfway to ease their transition. 

In other words, fitting the scheme to the player instead of the player to the scheme. A shockingly novel approach for NFL coaches. The rousing success of guys like Newton, Luck, Wilson and Kaepernick helped justify it and pushed the NFL to embrace quarterbacks who could run rather than treating them like Elsa in Frozen. 

Last season, another 44 quarterbacks met the 100-attempt cutoff and the shift is pronounced.

Pro-style Scrambler Dual-threat
Matt Ryan Aaron Rodgers Justin Herbert
Tom Brady Baker Mayfield Patrick Mahomes
Ben Roethlisberger Ryan Tannehill Josh Allen
Jared Goff Drew Lock Kyler Murray
Philip Rivers Carson Wentz Russell Wilson
Matthew Stafford Joe Burrow Deshaun Watson
Derek Carr Sam Darnold Daniel Jones
Kirk Cousins Andy Dalton Lamar Jackson
Teddy Bridgewater Gardner Minshew Cam Newton
Drew Brees Mitchell Trubisky Dak Prescott
Nick Mullens Tua Tagovailoa Jalen Hurts
Nick Foles Ryan Fitzpatrick Taysom Hill
Alex Smith Brandon Allen  
Dwayne Haskins
    
Mike Glennon
    
Jimmy Garoppolo
    
Joe Flacco
    
Jake Luton
    
C.J. Beathard
    

 

Mobile quarterbacks clearly outnumber stationary ones, as the pocket passing category dropped down to just 19 and that’s despite adding guys like Roethlisberger and Alex Smith who shifted categories with the passage of time. Thirteen passers fell in the in-between category while a dozen were labeled dual-threats. (I don’t have any super sharp methodology behind the labels but the goal is for them to be obvious)

A quick glance also seems to show plenty more heavy hitters in the dual-threat category last year than in 2011. In terms of sheer quantity, the pro-style category still has the most quarterbacks. But that might not last much longer. Here are the projected Week 1 starting quarterbacks as things stand right now:

Pro-style Scrambler Dual-threat
Matt Ryan Aaron Rodgers Justin Herbert
Tom Brady Baker Mayfield
Patrick Mahomes
Ben Roethlisberger Ryan Tannehill Josh Allen
Jared Goff Drew Lock Kyler Murray
Matthew Stafford Carson Wentz
Russell Wilson
Derek Carr Joe Burrow
Deshaun Watson
Kirk Cousins Sam Darnold Daniel Jones
Jimmy Garoppolo Andy Dalton
Lamar Jackson
  Tua Tagovailoa Cam Newton
  Ryan Fitzpatrick Dak Prescott
  Jameis Winston Jalen Hurts
  Zach Wilson
Trevor Lawrence

*Obviously Lance, Fields and Jones could change this

There are just eight pro-style starters, 25 percent of the league. Fullbacks are widely seen as an endangered species, but for comparison’s sake there were still 12 of them who played enough snaps to qualify for a PFF grade last year. 

Brees, Rivers and Smith have retired. Roethlisberger could follow them after this season. Brady can’t defy Father Time forever and Ryan turns 36 in a few weeks. He and Garoppolo could lose their starting jobs to more mobile options sooner rather than later. 

There’s not a strong pipeline of pocket quarterbacks coming to replace them, either. Including the five probable first-round quarterbacks this year, only three out of 20 first-round QBs the past five years would fit the pro-style categorization. It’s fascinating to think about what a list like this could look like in 2023 or 2024. 

However, even if pure pocket passers go extinct, pocket passing will likely never not be an essential component to being a successful NFL quarterback. The NFL’s embrace of a new breed of quarterbacks has enabled young passers to have early success. But eventually, defenses catch up. 

Mobility increases a quarterback’s upside and margin for error. But the real key to staying power, the difference between a Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott, or a Russell Wilson and Marcus Mariota, remains the work they do in the pocket. 

This Week In Football

  • The NFL sure knows how to milk the calendar. Ordinarily, we’d be digesting the first round today and preparing for Day 2. Instead, we have a whole week of buildup still to go for these storylines. 
    • North Dakota State QB Trey Lance had his second pro day on Monday, which is a quirk of this year’s process in lieu of private workouts. The 49ers essentially ran this workout with a strong presence from the Falcons on-hand to watch, as well as the Broncos and Patriots. Washington did not send representatives despite initial reports they would. Lance is a strong candidate to be the third or fourth quarterback off the board and the football world will be paying close attention the next six days for clues on where he goes. Do the 49ers take the high upside swing at No. 3 or are they truly invested in Mac Jones? Do the Falcons take him to develop behind Matt Ryan at No. 4? Does someone else trade up for him? Only a little while longer until we find out…
    • Moving down the board, the Bengals have a major need on the offensive line and seemingly would have Oregon LT Penei Sewell there for the taking at No. 5 if they want. But the word out of Cincinnati is that the Bengals are zeroing in on reuniting LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase with his college quarterback, Joe Burrow. 
    • Miami already shook up the first round in a major way by trading twice, first dropping out of the top ten with the 49ers, then swapping with the Eagles to get back up to No. 6, spending a first-round pick in the process. They might not be done making moves, as they’ve been taking calls from other teams looking to move up. They presumably have their eyes on a player or two or three if they made such an effort to move back up. But if the right deal comes along, Dolphins GM Chris Grier has shown he’s not afraid to move around the board. 
    • As the Dolphins look to move down, the word is that the Eagles are exploring a move up. It makes you wonder why either team agreed to move in the first place, but Philadelphia did get a future first out of the deal, which is strong as they enter a rebuild. There’s a clear top tier of three receivers, two cornerbacks and two offensive tackles, so the Eagles could be exploring a move to ensure they land one of those. There’s also an outside chance they could move back up for a quarterback if one slips, though that feels unlikely despite the coachspeak surrounding whether Jalen Hurts is the starter in 2021. 
    • The Panthers, picking at No. 8, continue to sell to anyone who’s willing to listen that they really could take a quarterback at No. 8 and that they’re “intrigued” by Justin Fields. The lone item working in their favor is that when current GM Scott Fitterer was with the Seahawks, they signed Matt Flynn to a decent deal in free agency, then turned around and drafted Wilson in the third round and the rest is history. However, Carolina has invested much more in Sam Darnold than Seattle did in Flynn, and the No. 8 pick is much different than a third-rounder. If there’s any lesson from Fitterer’s time in Seattle, it’s to keep an eye for a trade back, or two, or three from Carolina next week. 
    • In his first offseason in charge, Broncos GM George Paton has been methodical and unhurried at the quarterback position. They were in trade talks for Matthew Stafford, but weren’t willing to sell the farm. They passed on all the other potential free-agent options. They haven’t made any calls so far about moving up in the draft, presumably for a quarterback, but they have talked about moving down and Paton added they still want to bring in “competition” for incumbent Drew Lock. There’s still time to work out a trade up in the draft and it could depend on how the board falls in front of them. But it sure sounds like the Broncos are willing to wait to see who falls to No. 9, and if it’s a quarterback they like, they’ll pull the trigger. If not, they sound content to wait out the market for someone like Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater or 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. 
    • In his eight drafts in charge as a general manager for both the Panthers and Giants, Dave Gettleman has never traded back in any round. Still, he insists that’s an option and the Giants have had internal discussions about making a move like that this year. If New York is targeting an edge rusher or linebacker, there will be interesting options further down the board. I’ll still believe it when I see it. 
  • While the draft is obviously dominating headlines, there was still plenty that went on in the rest of the NFL. There were a pair of notable retirements, both due to health. Alex Smith retired after completing an amazing return to the field last season and winning the AP Comeback Player of the Year award. More on that below. Former Washington TE Jordan Reed also called it a career after making a more under-the-radar comeback with the 49ers last year. Reed said what pushed him over the edge is he’s already starting to feel the effects of the multiple concussions — brain injuries — he sustained in eight years in the NFL and more before that. 
  • The Steelers signed HC Mike Tomlin to a three-year extension that will continue what is an almost unparalleled run of organizational continuity. In recent seasons, Pittsburgh has come on what are relatively hard times for a franchise used to a high bar of success. The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016 and some corners of the fanbase are growing discontented with Tomlin. However, he remains one of the best coaches in the NFL and has never finished with a losing season in well over a decade in Pittsburgh. 
  • After signing DE Jadeveon Clowney last week, the Browns released DT Sheldon Richardson in a move that cleared $11 million in cap space, a huge figure this time of year and more than what Clowney will count for this year. Cleveland has kept the door open to him coming back but Richardson is still a productive player, and this class of defensive tackles is viewed as historically weak. There’s a decent chance another team can outbid Cleveland. 
  • The Ravens hosted former Steelers LT Alejandro Villanueva for a visit this week, which is interesting on a number of levels. Baltimore needs both an insurance policy for LT Ronnie Stanley as he rehabs a major knee injury and RT Orlando Brown Jr. who is seeking to be traded somewhere he can play on the left side. However, they likely won’t sign anyone until a few days after the draft to preserve their standing in the compensatory pick formula, so this could be a leverage play by Villanueva’s agents to drum up interest, perhaps from Pittsburgh to avoid losing him to a division rival? 
  • Two legal situations to pay attention to that aren’t Texans QB Deshaun Watson: just days after signing a deal with the Seahawks, DE Aldon Smith was charged with battery in Louisiana. Smith claims innocence and there’s reportedly video that could be definitive. He had seemingly exorcised many of his demons in his comeback last season but this would be a potential setback if the allegations are true. Former Buccaneers WR Antonio Brown settled the civil case where he was accused of sexual assault that marked the crescendo of the Year of AB in 2019. It’ll be interesting to see if that takes the clamps off of his market at all, or whether Tampa Bay can still get him back for cheap. 
  • After being let go last week by the Raiders, both DE Arden Key and DT Maurice Hurst found homes with the 49ers this week. Expectations should be about as low for Key as they were Dion Jordan, who San Francisco also signed as the equivalent of a pass rush scratch-off ticket. Hurst has some better odds to pay off, as he’s flashed the past three seasons as an interior pass rusher for Las Vegas. It’s an intriguing signing for a San Francisco team looking to bolster its pass rush back to the level that propelled it to the Super Bowl. 

Thoughts On Trevor Lawrence

Perhaps because there’s no drama associated with the pick, we haven’t talked a lot about soon-to-be Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence this offseason. It doesn’t help that Jacksonville is one of the two or three least relevant markets in the league. 

But the franchise is poised to land the type of player that can dramatically swing the fortunes of an organization. There will be growing pains with Lawrence as he adjusts to the NFL and we shouldn’t allow the hype to let us forget that. The talent is real, though. He absolutely has the potential to become one of the league’s best quarterbacks the way other “generational” prospects before him like Andrew Luck, John Elway and Peyton Manning have. 

If Lawrence gets anywhere near those players, he’ll be the best player in Jaguars history by a fairly decent margin. Mark Brunell had a strong run of success with the team in the 1990s but he was always viewed as more of a game manager. After that, pick your poison. David Garrard had some moments, as did Byron Leftwich, Blake Bortles and Gardner Minshew. They had precious little else, though. 

The Jaguars have had some really good to great players in their relatively short history. For as good as Jimmy Smith, Tony Boselli and Fred Taylor were, though, Lawrence can easily outpace them by virtue of the position he plays. There’s nothing like the power of a franchise quarterback to change not only a franchise but even an entire region. 

Consider the plight of the Saints. Established in 1967, soon after what’s considered the dawn of the modern NFL, New Orleans didn’t win its first playoff game until the turn of the century. Hurricane Katrina marked a nadir for the franchise and the region, as there was even speculation the team could move. The arrival of Drew Brees marked a turning point, however. In the 15 seasons since Brees arrived, the Saints won their first-ever Super Bowl and made the playoffs in nine of those seasons after qualifying in just five of the previous 39. Brees also became an integral part of rebuilding the city in the aftermath of Katrina. 

Brees is both a remarkable person and quarterback, and his story marks one of the high points of what’s possible. It’s also a reminder that the head coach is the other half of the equation, and there’s much that could be written about Urban Meyer and his fit in Jacksonville. 

Still, it’s undeniable the impact a franchise quarterback can have. As a Panthers fan, a team that joined the NFL at the same time as Jacksonville, I’ve seen firsthand the impact Cam Newton had on both the franchise and the city, living up to his vision before the draft to be both an entertainer and an icon. He was much more. The fortunes of every franchise rise and fall based on the quarterback. Not even the Packers are immune, take a look at the 35-year gap between when Bart Starr was throwing passes and when Brett Favre took over. 

If Lawrence is worthy of the comparisons to Elway, Manning and Luck, he’ll lift the Jaguars to heights of relevancy they haven’t experienced as a franchise in a long time. Already, the prospect of his arrival is juicing ticket sales past where they were in 2017 when Jacksonville came a game away from the Super Bowl. 

His impact could even go beyond the team and the region. The Jaguars’ footprint is expanding overseas, notably in London, and while owner Shad Khan maintains that the team won’t move permanently, the odds are strong that no NFL player plays more games abroad than Lawrence. He won’t be the first NFL star to go international, but he could be the brightest. 

Even bigger than that, Lawrence has the potential to change the way we look at athletes. Right now, the model is the athlete who’s driven by their doubters and carries a chip on their shoulder their entire life to prove them wrong. Consider The Last Dance and the clips of Michael Jordan over and over again finding motivation at the slightest of slights to fuel his dominance, even to the point of manufacturing them. 

For better or worse, Lawrence isn’t wired that way. 

“It’s hard to explain that because I want people to know that I’m passionate about what I do and it’s really important to me, but . . . I don’t have this huge chip on my shoulder, that everyone’s out to get me and I’m trying to prove everybody wrong,” he told Sports Illustrated’s Michael Rosenberg. “I just don’t have that. I can’t manufacture that. I don’t want to.

“…And I think people mistake that for being a competitor. . . . I think that’s unhealthy to a certain extent, just always thinking that you’ve got to prove somebody wrong, you’ve got to do more, you’ve got to be better.”

It’s easy to draw even more parallels between Lawrence and Luck, who shocked the world and walked away from the game because he was ready for life’s next chapter and his identity wasn’t consumed by football. People close to Lawrence told SI it’s easy to envision him doing something similar at some point. When will that be? Who knows, but if you’re setting a betting line, it has to be closer to Luck’s seven years than Brady’s 21 and counting. 

How healthy is that? I’m struck by what Gisele Bundchen said to her husband after he won the Super Bowl this past year in his first year on a different team ever as a professional: “What more do you have to prove?” He obviously still has something burning within him that won’t let him walk away from the game, not yet. 

For as much as we lionize sports heroes, the makeup it takes to excel in highly competitive environments doesn’t lend itself to making well-adjusted humans. Anxiety and fear of failure harass the men and women in the arena the same way they do for all of us living our lives outside. And it only gets worse the higher you climb. At his retirement press conference a few weeks ago, North Carolina basketball coach Roy Williams — a Naismith Hall of Famer, three-time national champion and winner of 903 games — said repeatedly he felt he was no longer the right person to lead the team. 

“I love coaching, working with kids on the court, the locker room, the trips, the “Jump Around” music, the trying to build a team. I will always love that and I’m scared to death of the next phase. But I no longer feel like I’m the right man…I don’t know what the future holds. Some ways I’m very sad. And as I said, I’m scared. But I’m also really happy and proud. We did okay.” 

Perhaps success just has a price the same way fame exacts a toll on the famous. But perhaps Lawrence can chart a new way forward. He’s among the first Gen Z athletes to reach the NFL that has already been impacted by millennials.  If he’s able to retain his perspective and still reach the potential he’s shown he carries, maybe the idea of the tortured athlete being the only way to success can be retired. 

Sometimes you can’t find a new way forward until someone shows you it’s there. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

When Patriots WR Julian Edelman retired last week, it reignited the debate about whether Edelman deserves a spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I have a strong opinion on this (no), but instead of a screed about that, here’s a list of every receiver not currently in the Hall that ranks higher than Edelman in Pro Football Reference’s Hall of Fame monitor…

A few folks have compared the Texans to an expansion team this year given the complete facelift the franchise is undergoing, including the potential loss of their franchise quarterback. But at least an expansion franchise would have more draft capital than Houston, which doesn’t pick until No. 67 on Friday…

That said, the longer you look at all the moves, the more it grows on you. Texans GM Nick Caserio had to shop in the bargain section, and often you get what you pay for there. But there are some intriguing players who are still young enough to develop into pieces for Houston, like CB Desmond King, DT Maliek Collins, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, DE Derek Rivers, RB Phillip Lindsay and WR Alex Erickson. Even if only a handful of the 30 free agents the Texans signed hit, that’s enough to bring a nice ROI…

This has massive implications. For one, it shows just how shallow this year’s draft class is. That’s probably why you’re seeing a handful of teams dipping back into last year’s undrafted free agent pool for signings, as they already could have higher evaluations than some of the potential UDFAs this year. It doesn’t hurt that prospects who had pro days canceled last year because of the pandemic are getting the chance to make up for it this year…

This could also lead to teams putting a higher value on future picks given that not only could those classes be stronger, with more prospects declaring and the super seniors who took advantage of additional eligibility juicing the pool, but the expected return of the normal pre-draft process helping teams have more confidence in their evaluations. Perhaps teams become less willing to trade back this year unless future picks are included in the deal…

I do not like the new number rule. I realize that makes me a cranky old, but I’m in good company with the Honey Badger…

There’s already been a ton of great writing and great work on Alex Smith, his leg injury and his comeback. This piece by Sports Illustrated is well worth your time, though…

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