NFLTR Review: Landing Spots For Austin Ekeler

If not LA, where might the veteran back play in 2023? In this issue:

• Why Ekeler’s market has been tough sledding
• Two teams that miiiiight be options — after the draft
• Plus, takeaways from our pre-draft visit tracker

Around The Trade Block: Austin Ekeler

It’s now been nearly a month since Chargers RB Austin Ekeler requested and received permission from the team to explore a trade, and the veteran remains in Los Angeles. The genesis of the conflict between the two sides is Ekeler’s desire for an updated contract and the inability of his reps and the Chargers to agree on a fair number. 

Unlike some other contract disagreements, we actually know or can easily deduce a lot of what the two sides are disagreeing about here. Ekeler has given a pair of fairly extensive interviews on the subject. He’s smart and insightful — he’s actually worked as a fantasy sports analyst with Yahoo Sports the past couple of seasons while still playing — and he has a pretty good grasp of the position he and the Chargers are in. 

“I think it’s really important to put it out there that it’s not like, ‘Oh, I hate the Chargers and I need to get out of this organization, and I need to leave,'” he said in an interview with SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. “That couldn’t be further from the truth. I would like to stay if it was under the right circumstances. Obviously, I have one more year on my contract there, so I’m contractually obligated to play for them for this upcoming year. So, we’re in a situation where it’s like, look, we have no guarantees or anything like that this year, so kind of in a spot where I’ve been outplaying my contract, and we might have an opportunity to go seek out other options that can bring me up.”

“Outplaying my contract” is an understatement. The Chargers signed Ekeler to a four-year, $24.5 million extension going into the 2020 season, which at the time was about lower-tier starter money for the running back position. He had a good year in 2020 but has absolutely exploded over the past two seasons as a dual-threat running back. His combined 3,195 yards from scrimmage rank fourth among all players and third among running backs, his 177 receptions are the most for a running back and 12th among all skill players, and his 38 touchdowns are 12 more than anyone else. 

Recognizing his value has gone up and he’s an important part of a Chargers team that’s squarely in the window to compete for a Super Bowl, Ekeler has tried to capitalize on his leverage. 

“Last year, we went to them and were like, ‘Hey, are you guys interested?’ It was definitely too early then; we didn’t really have as much leverage so we didn’t try as hard,” Ekeler said. “They gave us an offer, but it was like, ‘Hey, take this and we can continue our discount that we’re getting.’ And we were like, ‘Ah, we can’t do that.’ So I played this year on my contract again and obviously set the bar high, way higher than I’m actually being compensated for once again.

“So now after this year ended, it was around the combine that a lot of these talks start happening. … Basically, we just could not even get close to… It wasn’t even much of a negotiation. It was just kind of a, more so ‘hey, this is what we’re thinking, this is what they’re thinking,’ and it was just OK, we are not on the same page, let’s just end this because I don’t want to talk about this anymore.”

Basically, Ekeler says the Chargers and his camp have been so far apart on what fair value is for him over the past year that it’s been tough to make progress on a deal. As a result, his status with the team remains up in the air. 

“I feel like there’s no timeline on it,” he said. “I’m so underpaid right now as far as my contract and what I contribute to the team, it’s like, I am relentlessly pursuing this. I want to get something long-term done. I want a team that wants me long-term. I’m at the peak of my game, right? As long as I’m healthy, I’m gonna score you another 20 touchdowns. I’m gonna have, you know, another 1,600 all-purpose yards. I’m getting half my value of what I could be getting. I am relentlessly pursuing someone who wants me for the long term.”

Ekeler dropped an important clue here when he mentions his salary is “half” what he could be getting. He’s making $6 million in 2023, which was the average value of the deal when he signed it. Since the Panthers reset the RB market with Christian McCaffrey at $16 million a year, all the top backs who have signed extensions have been in the neighborhood of $12 million a year. This includes Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon. Those deals were all signed two or more years ago as well, and the cap has only gone up since then, so Ekeler has even more of a case that he deserves $12 million a year, minim. 

There are several reasons the Chargers don’t want to pay up, however. Running back is near the bottom of the NFL contractual totem pole because the position is notorious for having a short shelf life. Running backs take a lot of punishment and their peak years are usually while they’re still on a rookie contract. By the time they’re eligible to be paid, teams have to weigh overpaying for past production or going with a younger, cheaper and in all likelihood more effective player. 

This is the whole philosophy behind “running backs don’t matter.” They do, just less than other positions. And it’s less catchy to say than “running backs should be de-prioritized because they are easier to find, are reliant on supporting cast to be productive and have shorter career lengths than other positions.” 

In Ekeler’s case, he’s turning 28 years old which is historically close to the age cliff for running backs. He’s handled 587 touches over the past two seasons, which is a significant workload. He’s only missed one game but that’s not a guarantee of what could happen in the future. The Chargers have already leveraged their roster considerably to keep as much of their core together as they could this season. They’re one of just four teams projected to be in the red in 2024 cap space by Over The Cap and that’s with a $20 million jump from this year’s number. 

And without a $50+ million contract for QB Justin Herbert. 

Ekeler is a terrific player and a huge part of the offense, but it’s understandable that the Chargers would be hesitant to lock themselves in with a major financial commitment on a player who, based on historical odds, is far closer to the end of his career than the beginning. After all, they found Ekeler as an undrafted free agent. The point isn’t that undrafted free agency is loaded with elite players like Ekeler but that compared to other positions, it’s much easier to find productive running backs in the middle and late rounds. 

There’s something to be said for doing right by an important player and honoring his past contributions to the team. When discussing locker room and organization culture, that kind of thing does matter, even if it’s not easily quantified. There’s no cap credit for decency, though. 

Perhaps the two sides will eventually be able to reach a compromise because all the factors that make the Chargers hesitant to extend Ekeler are also working against him when it comes to finding another team. The Chargers granting Ekeler permission to seek a trade means his agents can contact other teams and discuss trade and contract compensation without it being illegal tampering. That’s what they’ve been doing for the past few weeks, and the fact Ekeler remains in Los Angeles is probably a sign there are not a lot of teams lining up for his services. 

While Ekeler would have been by far the best running back available this offseason had he been a free agent, the most any veteran signed for was $6 million. Notable names like Kareem Hunt and Ezekiel Elliott, who are about the same age as Ekeler even if neither were remotely as productive in 2022, remain unsigned still. Hunt and Elliott will likely have to wait until after the draft to sign with a new team and Ekeler seems to understand that’s an important inflection point for him as well. 

“Time will play out. Who knows? We’ll see what happens with the draft,” Ekeler said “But it’s a situation where, look, if a team wants me in the long term, it’s a year where they’ll have to give up picks and then I’ll have to renegotiate, so that’s kind of playing into it for sure. But we’ll see, like I said. Time will tell, and we’ll see what happens after the draft.”

Again, Ekeler’s comments show he knows the score. Why would a team give up a third or fourth-round pick in addition to a $12 million-a-year contract for a 28-year-old back when they could take a shot at getting comparable production with just the pick from a cheaper rookie? That’s why Ekeler’s market should have more clarity after the draft. 

If we think about the boxes a team would have to check to be in the market for Ekeler, a few things come to mind:

• Need for a running back
• Cap space and the willingness to pay eight figures for a back
• Contending team looking for more weapons
• Exiting the draft without a running back

There isn’t really a team that checks those boxes unless you stretch and squint. 

Bears: They have plenty of cap space and the duo of Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman isn’t imposing. But they likely are better off either rolling with those two or adding a draft pick rather than chasing Ekeler as a finishing touch piece to put them over the top. They have way bigger needs than running back. 

Bengals: They need a new third-down back after losing Samaje Perine, and they haven’t committed to keeping Mixon. He could be out depending on what happens in the draft. But if the point of getting rid of Mixon would be to get cheaper, why would they pay the same amount of money plus a draft pick to trade for Ekeler? 

Bills: Buffalo is a contending team that’s been looking around to try and get better at running back in the past year or so. However, the roster currently features James Cook, Damien Harris and Nyheim Hines, which is about the level of resources they’ve wanted to allocate. They are tight to the cap this year and next, and really need to hit on cheap contributors with their draft picks, not trade them away to pay a running back $12 million. 

Broncos: Getting Ekeler in HC Sean Payton’s offense would be fun. Ekeler’s two best seasons came with Joe Lombardi calling plays and he’s on the staff in Denver now. However, the chances of the Chargers trading Ekeler within the division are dubious. Plus, the Broncos have limited cap flexibility and are focusing on getting more picks, not trading them away for veterans. 

Browns: They have some cap flexibility and need a replacement for Hunt. The offense is reportedly going to more spread-out looks to maximize QB Deshaun Watson, and Ekeler is a great fit for that. But they’re already paying Chubb the top market rate and he’s a better, albeit different player. They don’t have many picks to spare either. 

Chiefs: Kansas City could use Ekeler for sure, but the Chargers aren’t trading him to another AFC West team. 

Colts: Jonathan Taylor is superb but he’s not as much of a weapon as Ekeler in the passing game. New HC Shane Steichen knows Ekeler well from his time in Los Angeles and would be able to put him to good use easily. However, Taylor’s entering a contract year too. It’d be a hard sell to shell out big bucks to both. 

Dolphins: Miami certainly has a need at running back, with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson leading the backfield now. They have just four draft picks, too. However, I suspect running back will be one of their main priorities. They don’t have much cap space otherwise to address needs. While they could obviously use Ekeler, I suspect he’s too expensive to realistically consider. 

Eagles: Philadelphia checks the big boxes of being a contending team that could use help at running back, but philosophically they have not put a priority on the position. They only have six draft picks so it’s possible they leave the draft without addressing their need, which could make them a candidate for Ekeler down the line. His contract would be a tight fit, not an impossible one. But if the Eagles are going to stretch to add a player, it’s hard to see it being for a running back, even one as good as Ekeler.  

Jaguars: Even if Ekeler would be a more dynamic and proven passing game threat than Travis Etienne, Jacksonville is probably too financially limited to pursue him. 

Lions: On the surface, the Lions have a crowded depth chart with D’Andre Swift and David Montgomery. But they do have picks to spare and some cap space to work with, and Swift is going into a contract year with an uncertain future. Detroit seems poised to make a massive jump in 2023 after narrowly missing the playoffs last year. Would Ekeler be enough of an upgrade over Swift to trade away the younger option? Perhaps even as a part of the swap? 

Panthers: Ekeler would give Carolina the same type of dynamic, multifaceted weapon they had with McCaffrey. However, this is still a young, developing team that already gave RB Miles Sanders the biggest free-agent deal for a running back. They’ve talked up his ability in the passing game that he showed his rookie year. It makes more sense for the Panthers to use the picks and cash elsewhere, not on Ekeler. 

Patriots: Traditionally New England has featured a three-headed committee and Ekeler would slot in right away as an impact passing down back. I don’t think the Patriots would mind giving up the draft pick for Ekeler, but the contract would be an issue. They just don’t pay anyone at the top of the market. 

Rams: The contract alone makes this a hard sell given how much salary Los Angeles has dumped this offseason. But the Rams do need help at running back and do need more weapons on offense. It’s tough to outright rule them out of any trade but this feels unlikely. 

Overall, it would be a shock if Ekeler is traded before the draft. After the draft, the chances go up a little bit, as teams shift into contending mode and have fewer options to address needs. However, the Chargers also would be more hesitant to trade Ekeler as they’d potentially be leaving themselves with a hole in a contending year. 

Of the teams listed, I think the Colts and the Lions make the most sense. Indianapolis has familiarity with Ekeler which goes a long way, and they could sell it as adding a weapon and not necessarily another running back. Detroit checks a lot of boxes too aside from the crowded depth chart. If things deteriorate between Ekeler and the Chargers and it gets to the point where a new contract isn’t part of a trade, I could see the Patriots and Eagles getting involved. 

Still, the vast majority of signs point to Ekeler ultimately playing out his contract year with the Chargers. In both interviews, he’s referred to the “worst-case scenario” of finishing his contract in 2023, which would seem to shut down the idea of a training camp or regular season holdout. Given he had a front-row seat to the disaster that was Melvin Gordon’s contract dispute in 2019, that makes sense. The Chargers give him the best environment for success in 2023 and to keep his value high for 2024. He has familiarity with his teammates and while he’ll be learning a new system under OC Kellen Moore, his fast-paced offense should be good for Ekeler. The most important thing will be staying healthy. 

The Chargers would still have the franchise tag to keep Ekeler in 2024 but that’s not the worst outcome, as it’d still give him a major raise. Even if he stays healthy and plays well in 2023, teams will still be wary about signing a 29-year-old running back to a major deal. He might be hard-pressed to do better than the tag. 

In hindsight, the extension Ekeler signed in 2020 seems like a missed opportunity. Even at the time, it was viewed as a bargain for an ascending player, and it aged exponentially better from the Chargers’ point of view. However, at the time Ekeler was a former undrafted free agent going into his fourth year in the NFL having made $1.67 million for three years of work. The deal came with a $6 million signing bonus and a total of $9.5 million earned in the first year, plus another $5.5 million in guarantees. Given the punishment the position takes and the lack of longevity, it’s easy to understand why that looked good. 

Had Ekeler bet on himself and played out his contract year, earning something in the range of $2-$3 million, he would have faced the franchise tag, which in 2021 was $8.655 million for running backs. So in two years of work, assuming he stayed healthy, he would have barely topped the amount the Chargers were offering him to sign in 2020. 

If there was a missed opportunity, it was perhaps agreeing to a four-year deal instead of three, costing Ekeler a chance at unrestricted free agency this offseason instead of next. That’s a lesson it seems like more and more players are wising up to. The vast majority of NFL contracts run out of guarantees after two years, making every year after that the equivalent of a team option.

Overall, Ekeler has played his hand fine based on the knowledge he’s had to work with at the time. The NFL just gives running backs a crappy hand. 

This Week In Football

• It’s been three years since Tom Brady left the Patriots. In those three seasons, the Patriots are 25-25 with one playoff appearance in which they were blown out by the Bills, the new kings of the AFC East. They went from Cam Newton to Mac Jones at quarterback, which looked promising after Jones’ rookie year. Then came the debacle that was the 2022 season when HC Bill Belichick elected to replace OC Josh McDaniels with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, who had no meaningful NFL coaching experience on the side of the ball they were entrusted with. Jones took a big step back, and his inability to suffer silently resulted in him taking a hit with Belichick. Now he’s on much shakier footing, including being discussed in trade talks this offseason. Jones is still expected to be the starting quarterback in 2023 but things in New England are nearing a breaking point. Owner Robert Kraft made it pretty clear missing the playoffs for the third time in four seasons would not be acceptable, so there’s tension between the owner and the head coach in addition to the head coach and the quarterback. There’s a lot on the line for everyone in 2023. 
• The situation with the Patriots has been by far the biggest news development of this past week as teams are pretty much done with free agency and are putting most of their focus on the draft. There are still things that need to fall into place, including potentially another big move or two. The top two picks will be quarterbacks but could a team trade up with the Cardinals at No. 3 to get ahead of the Colts at No. 4? The Tennessee Titans have reportedly explored the possibility, though whether or not they pull the trigger remains in serious question. A trade like that would be only marginally cheaper than the haul the Panthers gave up to get to No. 1. It’s noteworthy, however, that the Titans appear to be investigating their options at quarterback. 
• Speaking of the Panthers trade, a nugget dropped this week that the Bears also inquired about DE Brian Burns and DT Derrick Brown as they wanted a player to be included in the package for the No. 1 pick. The Panthers declined and offered up WR D.J. Moore instead. Personally I would have been the least attached to Brown, as it feels like defensive tackles are a lot easier to find and Brown hasn’t been an impact pass rusher so far. Carolina evidently felt differently. Burns of course was always going to be off the table given the Panthers turned down two first-round picks for him midseason. 
• With the pending sale of the Washington Commanders and the excision of Dan Snyder from the league, there’s going to be a vacancy for the title of worst owner. Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill is sharpening his candidacy. Already viewed as one of the stingiest owners in football, Bidwill now has an explosive misconduct allegation from former senior executive Tim McDonough who makes a laundry list of claims. McDonough says Bidwill gave him and others burner phones to circumvent former GM Steve Keim’s suspension for a DUI, berated and demoted McDonough when he said he wasn’t comfortable with that, and generally operated with a toxic and abusive workplace environment. Arizona fired back calling McDonough’s claims baseless and claiming they discovered serious evidence of domestic abuse by McDonough. This will all likely take a long time to sort out. And none of it breaks the streak of bad news for the Cardinals. 
• Notable transactions this week: 
  • The Dolphins signed TE Durham Smythe to a two-year, $7.75 million extension. It’s a decent deal for someone who’s carved out a nice role for Miami, although they likely hope to draft someone to be their top option sooner rather than later. 
  • The Panthers signed DB Eric Rowe, which is a solid depth addition at this point in the offseason. Rowe’s not an elite talent but he’s a competent, starting caliber player at either safety or corner. He’s found a niche the past few seasons specifically as a matchup piece to cover tight ends. 
  • The Cardinals signed OL Elijah Wilkinson, who has 36 starts over the past five seasons. Offensive line depth was a major question for Arizona, so this is a boost there. 
  • Despite their free-agent spending spree in March, the Bears didn’t really address their edge-rushing group. They took a step in that direction by signing DL Rasheem Green to a one-year deal. Green turns 26 in May so this is an interesting flyer on a player who might have a bit of upside to still tap into. He had 6.5 sacks in his final season with the Seahawks in 2021 and 3.5 last year with the Texans. 
  • The Raiders landed a new backup quarterback and another former Patriots player, signing QB Brian Hoyer to a two-year, $4.5 million deal. Hoyer’s at the stage where he’s viewed more as a player-coach than a significant contributor, so this shouldn’t materially change Las Vegas’ plans at quarterback. 
  • In an interesting move, the Seahawks pulled S Ryan Neal’s original round tender, which would have been $2.7 million, after signing S Julian Love to go along with Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams. It was too crowded of a depth chart and Seattle needed the money elsewhere. Their loss was the Bucs’ gain, as they swooped in to nab a safety who has a fair amount of starting experience over the past two seasons. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

I thought it was interesting what teams like the Commanders, Falcons and Buccaneers are latching onto as evidence they’re giving reporters who ask why they’re so confident in the younger quarterbacks with minimal experience or pedigree they’ve decided to give a chance as their starter this season. Via Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer…

Washington QB Sam Howell had defenders and receivers from the scout team talking him up, and the team had a starting grade on him after his sophomore season. In his lone start in 2022 — one in which Rivera had to abruptly reverse course midweek on whether Howell would actually start or not — Howell completed 11 of 19 pass attempts for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception, adding 35 yards rushing and a touchdown…

Falcons QB Desmond Ridder improved his passer rating in all four of his starts, and really bounced back well after fumbling a snap on his first third down in his second start. The Falcons went 2-2 with Ridder, who completed 63.5 percent of his pass attempts for 708 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He rushed for another 64 yards but also lost two fumbles…

For the Bucs and QB Kyle Trask, it’s that former HC Bruce Arians is a big fan, Trask throws a catchable ball — which some people might also call a lack of arm strength — and he had a nice touchdown pass in the preseason one time. Trask completed three of nine pass attempts for 23 yards in the only regular season appearance of his career last season, and he was unable to unseat veteran QB Blaine Gabbert as the primary backup in two seasons…

Maybe one of these guys really does turn into something legit. But I can’t blame anyone who looks at this lineup and thinks these teams are tanking. They’re not. None of these coaches have the job security to do that, so they came to these decisions on their own, which has its own set of implications…

However, I also think some people with these teams are very aware of the potential quarterback talent coming in next year’s draft class…

We are in the thick of draft season and the NFL is busy mowing through its top 30 visit schedule. For reference, each team is allowed to bring 30 prospects to its facility for visits during draft season, with local prospects not counting to the limit. Different teams use them for different reasons, either to do more medical checks or a more in-depth interview or even just to get a head start on recruiting undrafted free agents. We’re tracking all top 30 visits as well as other pre-draft meetings in our 2023 Draft Visit Tracker. Here are some interesting nuggets that have come up so far: 

• The quarterback visits are always notable. The Colts have met with all the top prospects but only Kentucky QB Will Levis, Florida QB Anthony Richardson and Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker will take official top 30 visits. Expect the Colts to try and keep their preference close to the vest so another team doesn’t trade up and snipe them…
• If the Colts take one of Richardson or Levis as expected, it’s not clear where the other will go. The Raiders and Titans have official visits with all three of Richardson, Levis and Hooker. The Falcons and Ravens have done official visits with Richardson. And there’s still a mystery visit for Levis that has not been reported…
• While the Seahawks have been to all the top prospect pro days, they haven’t used a top 30 visit on a quarterback yet. Neither have the Lions. Doesn’t mean they won’t take a quarterback but certainly suggests it might not be a priority, particularly in Detroit’s case…
• Hooker’s visit list is the most extensive, which makes sense because he’s coming off the torn ACL which teams will want to get their own read on and he has one of the widest ranges of any quarterback in this draft class. Some interesting teams on his schedule include the Commanders, Packers and Giants, in addition to the Saints and Buccaneers. He could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the third round…