NFLTR Review: Post-Offseason NFL Power Rankings

Most of the hay is in the barn for teams with the offseason basically over. Now our attention turns to the 2023 season: 

• Ranking & tiering all 32 teams
• The race to the top — and the race to the bottom…
• Plus sleeper teams, pretenders & more

2023 NFL Power Rankings

Ask any NFL general manager and they’ll tell you roster building is a 365-day-a-year endeavor. And there are still a handful of notable players available who could play important snaps this upcoming season. 

But the reality is we’ve hit the point in the football calendar where the only real thing left to do is run out the clock until the start of training camp. Free agency and the draft are in the books and teams look 90 percent the same as they will in September. The football world is looking ahead to the 2023 season and we’ve hit peak power rankings season. 

ESPN's Football Power Index is out!

Why the Chiefs are No. 1 but not Super Bowl favorites, close divisions, the Jets at 6 (!), the Cardinals chances at the No. 1 pick and more: https://t.co/K5iPP9AtjJ pic.twitter.com/d6mYiqOVBa

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) May 22, 2023

Here’s our take on how the league stacks up going into 2023:

Heavyweights

The big dogs, Super Bowl favorites

1 – Chiefs

The defending champions should realistically be at the top of everyone’s rankings until proven otherwise. Last year, they traded star WR Tyreek Hill who went on to supercharge Miami’s offense with 1,710 receiving yards — and QB Patrick Mahomes still won the MVP and led Kansas City back to the Super Bowl for the third time in four years. 

They didn’t add a ton of star power to their receiving corps this year, but as long as TE Travis Kelce is going strong, that probably won’t matter. They focused on fortifying the tackle spots, with Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor coming in to replace Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie. That should also end up close to a push. 

On defense, the bar has been to be good enough to complement a potent offense, and that formula probably won’t change. Kansas City has invested in a lot of younger players on that side of the ball who could continue to improve with experience. 

The AFC is stacked, but the Chiefs are undeniably the team to beat going into 2023. 

2 – Bengals

The Bengals may not be that far behind the Chiefs when you start to stack the rosters up against each other. 

• Quarterback: Chiefs, but Bengals QB Joe Burrow is a more than worthy adversary and helped Cincinnati beat Kansas City twice in 2021. 
• Skill positions: Bengals, both in terms of star power and overall quality. 
• Offensive line: Chiefs. Brown flipping sides in this rivalry was a major win for the Bengals. The Chiefs still should have an edge but Cincinnati closed a lot of ground. 
• Pass rush: Bengals. The Chiefs have the best pass rusher on either roster in DT Chris Jones but have been looking for players to complement him. Overall the Bengals have the more loaded defensive line and a schematic advantage with what DC Lou Anarumo can cook up more often than not. 
• Secondary: Bengals, unless Kansas City’s young guns take a big step forward and Cincinnati struggles more than expected to replace Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell at safety. Cincinnati’s edge here isn’t huge. 
• Run defense/linebackers: Bengals, by a little. It’s not flashy but it does matter for these teams when they go up against other teams who try to slow the game down and minimize possessions for their explosive offenses and quarterbacks. 

The Bengals have faced the Chiefs in the AFC Championship each of the past two seasons, splitting the two games. They have a loaded roster and have maximized the flexibility afforded to them by having Burrow on a rookie contract still. That window is closing soon, but for 2023 at least it’s wide open. All the pieces seem to be in place for the Bengals to win their first-ever Super Bowl. 

Contenders

Just a tick below the top two but still outstanding squads — with maybe one nagging question to answer

3 – Eagles

Perhaps the defending NFC champions deserve to be in the same discussion as the Bengals and Chiefs, as they still return a number of key players from the Super Bowl squad. There’s just enough turnover, especially on defense, to give me a little bit of pause. Philadelphia will be breaking in a new defensive coordinator in Sean Desai — which depending on who you ask might be considered an upgrade over former DC and new Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon. They also have about five starters on that side of the ball to replace, including DT Javon Hargrave. 

Still, there’s a lot of talent remaining on that side of the ball, particularly at cornerback and edge rusher. The Eagles were able to keep both CBs Darius Slay and James Bradberry and added first-round DE Nolan Smith to a group that still includes DEs Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham. 

On offense, MVP candidate QB Jalen Hurts returns with a stacked offensive line and skill position group. If the defense regresses a bit, that side of the ball should still be able to pick up the slack and keep the Eagles at or near the top of the NFC — which frankly is a far inferior conference talent-wise compared to the AFC at this point. 

4 – Bills 

I still think the Bills are one of the best teams in the AFC. But last year exposed a gap between them and the Chiefs/Bengals, while it feels like the rest of the AFC has narrowed the gap this offseason. On offense, Buffalo’s lack of skill position alternatives to WR Stefon Diggs was exposed as the season went on, as was the dropoff from Brian Daboll to new OC Ken Dorsey. The Bills were too reliant on QB Josh Allen, and his elbow injury in the middle of the season didn’t help. 

On defense, the team just ran out of gas. Signing DE Von Miller was a home run until he tore his ACL, and injuries mounted at other position groups. Veteran DC Leslie Frazier, who coordinated the defense to top-two finishes in either yards or scoring in a staggering four of the past five years, is out after taking a leave from the team. Bills HC Sean McDermott will take on more say in the defense to replace him. Miller should be back by the second half of the season but it doesn’t seem like the Bills will be able to count on the defense being the overwhelming strength it has been. 

As long as Buffalo has Allen, the Bills will be in the mix. But to get over the hump, the Bills need to figure something else out. 

5 – Ravens

I will admit, this is a bit of an aggressive ranking for the Ravens and a departure in tone from how this team has been discussed for most of the offseason. But extending a franchise quarterback and eliminating long-term uncertainty will do that. Now that QB Lamar Jackson is in the fold, the vision the team has for the 2023 season becomes much clearer with new OC Todd Monken and a dramatically reinforced receiving corps. A lot of people, including plenty who work for NFL teams, have doubts about Jackson’s ability as a passer. I don’t. Not to say there won’t be bumps as the team implements a new scheme, but I absolutely believe Jackson is capable of being an annual 4,000-yard passer. 

There’s a little bit of projection required with the rest of the roster in some spots but there’s also a considerable amount of talent. The Ravens may not have a bonafide No. 1 wideout but they do have an excellent tight end in Mark Andrews and enough talent between Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham, first-rounder Zay Flowers, veteran Nelson Agholor and gadget player Devin Duvernay to be frisky. The offensive line is solid if everyone stays healthy. 

Flipping over to defense, the team could really use young players stepping up at edge rusher and cornerback to really come together as a top-10 unit. But there are some good players to build around, namely CB Marlon Humphrey, LB Roquan Smith and S Marcus Williams. Second-year S Kyle Hamilton and DT Justin Madubuike might not be that far off from being big names, either. 

If Jackson can shake the injury bug that has plagued him at the end of each of the past two seasons, I think the Ravens are well-positioned to make a lot of noise even in a crowded AFC. He’s a brilliant talent and the addition of Monken could help take his game to an even higher level. 

6 – Cowboys

Dallas is always a polarizing team to rank thanks to their huge national footprint and what’s been decades without any sort of meaningful postseason success. Since winning the Super Bowl in 1995, the Cowboys haven’t gotten past the divisional round of the playoffs. They’ve been 12-5 each of the past two seasons and been upset by the 49ers. So I get why some would be skeptical about their 2023 outlook. 

It’s hard to drop them too low, however, due to the talent on this roster. On offense, they’ve got a great outlook on the offensive line with five players coming back who’ve started significant games for them in the past. They added veteran WR Brandin Cooks to a receiving corps that badly needed another threat to take attention away from WR CeeDee Lamb, and WR Michael Gallup should be more of a factor now that he’s had more time to recover from a torn ACL that basically derailed his 2022 season. 

Things look even better on defense, as DC Dan Quinn stayed for a third straight season after overseeing top-ten scoring defenses in each of his first two seasons. Dallas didn’t really lose anyone who’s irreplaceable on that side of the ball, and added former DPOY CB Stephon Gilmore to a group that already includes LB Micah Parsons, DE DeMarcus Lawrence and CB Trevon Diggs. If first-round DT Mazi Smith helps plug the run defense, the Cowboys should be a top-ten unit for the third straight year. 

The questions all surround the head coach and quarterback. Dak Prescott threw far too many interceptions last season, and while some of them weren’t his fault — to a comical level at times — he does need to be more productive. He’s a very good quarterback, which sometimes gets lost in the discussion about whether he’s good enough to win a Super Bowl. The bar is just high at the position, perhaps higher than it’s ever been. There’s also plenty of scrutiny on McCarthy, far more than there would be for most coaches coming off back-to-back 12-5 seasons. He’ll take over as the team’s primary play-caller following the departure of OC Kellen Moore, and he has plenty to prove given how stale his offense got near the end of his time with the Packers. 

Hopeful Contenders

Good teams with just a few more questions to answer than the previous tier

7 – Dolphins

New Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel was a huge hit in his first season in Miami, reviving the career of QB Tua Tagovailoa and turning the Dolphins into one of the most explosive offenses in football. The team finished No. 6 in the NFL in total offense and made the playoffs, where unfortunately their quarterback injury issues caught up to them. Tagovailoa had multiple concussions over the course of the season and Miami ended up relying on seventh-round rookie QB Skylar Thompson after veteran QB Teddy Bridgewater was also banged up. 

Questions about Tagovailoa are why the Dolphins are in the third tier. Brain injuries have caused many players to walk away from the game earlier than expected and it’s something Tagovailoa had to consider this offseason before deciding to return. At just 25, the hope is he has many many more years left to play, but there is some degree of uncertainty. If there wasn’t, there would be a much more serious conversation about the Dolphins extending him this offseason. They’re committed to him for at least another season, probably two after picking up his fifth-year option, but an extension is just a different level of commitment. 

There are also some questions about if Tagovailoa and McDaniel can remain productive as NFL defenses get more film on the offense. In the final four games before his season ended — all losses — Tagovailoa had just six touchdowns to five interceptions and saw his completion percentage fall to 52.5 percent. His total completion percentage before that was nearly 70 percent. 

However, even if there’s some dropoff from the offense, the Dolphins are banking that an improvement on defense can help make up for it. Miami finished 24th in scoring defense and 18th in yards allowed. To shore that up, they added DC Vic Fangio, who’s about as high-impact of a coaching hire you can make on that side of the ball, and traded for CB Jalen Ramsey to pair with CB Xavien Howard. They will be shifting from the man-heavy, blitz-heavy scheme they continued to run in 2022 to a more disciplined approach under Fangio that should better highlight the strengths of their personnel. There’s potential for the Dolphins to field top-ten units on both offense and defense, which make them a threat to unseat the Bills from the top of the AFC East. 

8 – Jaguars 

The Jaguars announced themselves as a rising team in the AFC last season by running the table to win the AFC South, then completing a massive comeback to knock off the Chargers in the wildcard round. After a miserable rookie season and some learning moments in the first half of 2022, QB Trevor Lawrence started to look like the generational prospect everyone envisioned when he went No. 1 overall, and the steady hand of HC Doug Pederson played a major role in that. Jacksonville is the easy favorite in a weak AFC South and will be measuring itself against the heavyweights in the AFC. 

To compete, the Jaguars will need Lawrence to keep growing as a passer, which all signs indicate is a reasonable expectation. The team made it a point to augment his receiving weapons even more with the acquisition of WR Calvin Ridley, who will team up with WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones along with TE Evan Engram to form a solid group. We still don’t know if Ridley is a true No. 1 receiver but he has been incredibly productive in the past.

The offensive line is in some flux at tackle; Walker Little is taking over on the left while Cam Robinson is suspended (maybe longer?) and first-round OT Anton Harrison will get the first crack at starting on the right side. There are some pieces to work with but it could end up a problem point against the better teams on the schedule. 

On defense, the biggest thing the Jaguars need is for some of their younger players to take a step forward and turn into difference-makers. Guys like CB Tyson Campbell and OLB Travon Walker could help Jacksonville keep pace with the murderer’s row of quarterbacks the team will face in the AFC this season. Overall, the arrow is clearly pointed up for the Jaguars. It does not feel like we’ve seen this team at its best yet. 

9 – Chargers

There’s a case to be made that the Chargers are better than the Jaguars but the playoff result from last season is hard to ignore. Still, the ingredients remain in place for Los Angeles to be one of the best teams in the AFC if they can put it together to edge out some of the fierce competition. The Chargers have a quarterback in Justin Herbert who’s just as talented as any of his rivals in the AFC and the hire of OC Kellen Moore this offseason was aimed at bringing the best out of him. Los Angeles has the weapons (WR Keenan Allen, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Mike Williams) and the offensive line to be a top offense. If the team stays relatively healthy, which was a major problem last season, that should be the expectation. 

Good health on defense would also go a long way after the team’s vision of lining up star pass rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack across from each other was scuttled by injuries. They still need to find answers in the secondary to go along with S Derwin James and CB Asante Samuel Jr. It would be awesome if that was CB J.C. Jackson given the money they forked over in free agency last year but between his early-season struggles and the patellar tendon injury, that feels like an uphill road. Bosa and Mack having big seasons could cover up the deficiencies on the back end. 

10 – 49ers

This is a lot lower than the 49ers tend to be in the early power rankings coming off a trip to the NFC Championship. San Francisco is bringing back the bulk of that team and fortified the defensive line even more with DT Javon Hargrave in free agency. But the big question I have is who’s going to play quarterback? 

The most likely option at this point seems to be Brock Purdy. He performed well when called upon last season and had he not torn his UCL, there’d be zero question about his status as the starter. But it’s hard to get around the injury as a major complication. Purdy will miss most of this offseason rehabbing his torn elbow ligament. How will that impact his performance when he’s healthy, even if he’s back in time for Week 1? How will he and the 49ers respond now that defenses have more tape to go off of? If Purdy isn’t back, what will the 49ers get out of either Trey Lance or Sam Darnold? The former is still an unknown quantity going into his third season, the latter has washed out with two teams at this point. 

Maybe it doesn’t matter. The 49ers have put a ton of different quarterbacks out on the field under HC Kyle Shanahan and nearly all of them have been able to put up respectable production. Shanahan’s offense deserves a lot of credit, and the supporting talent on offense is stellar with RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle and WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. It’s tough for me to be all-in on a team with this much uncertainty at the game’s most important position, however. 

11 – Browns

There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the Browns heading into the 2023 season. They still have one of the best offensive lines in the league and a fearsome rushing attack spearheaded by RB Nick Chubb. Veteran WR Amari Cooper is a capable No. 1 option, and the Browns have tried to surround him and TE David Njoku with more talent, trading for WR Elijah Moore this offseason and using third-round picks in three straight drafts on receivers. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski remains highly thought of in league circles for his ability as an offensive play-caller. 

Defense was a major issue for the Browns last season and they’ve taken steps to remedy that this season, starting with the addition of DC Jim Schwartz. They’ve invested a lot in fortifying the line of scrimmage, signing DT Dalvin Tomlinson and DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and trading for DE Za’Darius Smith. Tomlinson will hopefully help fix a woeful run defense while Okoronkwo and Smith prove pass-rushing alternatives to take advantage of the attention star DE Myles Garrett commands. They also have another star in the secondary with CB Denzel Ward and some younger players around him they’re hoping can take a step forward. 

But what it all is going to come down to is QB Deshaun Watson. Last year was his first time playing since the end of the 2020 season after sitting out all of 2021 and serving an 11-game suspension for sexual misconduct. He was predictably rusty in six games to end the season. If he can recapture his top-five form from before, the Browns could be a legitimate force to deal with in the AFC. A lot will also depend on the merger between Watson and Stefanski, as the latter is shifting his scheme from being run-heavy and utilizing a lot of multi-tight end sets to a more wide-open philosophy to accommodate Watson’s skillset and preferences. 

If it doesn’t go well, it’ll probably be Stefanski’s head on the chopping block. The team has plenty of reasons to make sure they exhaust every avenue to make it work with Watson first. 

12 – Jets 

Despite all of the hype the Jets are getting this offseason after acquiring QB Aaron Rodgers, I think there’s some serious downside to this team that’s not being discussed as much. New York’s thinking this offseason was that it had a championship-level defense and plenty of talent on offense. They were just a quarterback away from contending for a Super Bowl. So they laid the groundwork to trade for Rodgers by hiring OC Nathaniel Hackett, then followed through and landed the veteran. 

Maybe it works out. The veteran trade model has had success in recent years and Rodgers should be highly motivated to turn in a good season after moving on from Green Bay. However, that formula’s not an automatic fix, as we saw last season with the Broncos and Colts who traded for veteran quarterbacks that turned into pumpkins. Both happened for different reasons but the point is there’s always a transition to be made when a prominent veteran changes teams and it’s not a given it will work out well. 

In the case of the Jets and Rodgers, he does have the benefit of a lot of familiarity with Hackett, who was ill-equipped to get the best out of Russell Wilson last season in Denver. But Hackett has only one year in his career where he’s been the primary play-caller for a top-ten offense (2017 with the Jaguars). Rodgers is also infamously tough on young receivers, which means there will be a learning curve for the guys who haven’t played with him yet like WR Garrett Wilson. That’s likely why the Jets prioritized bringing WRs Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb over from the Packers, but those two have limitations that played a big role in the Packers’ struggles on offense last season. Not to mention, Rodgers wasn’t exactly playing the best football of his career in 2022 either. 

And while the Jets are assuming they’ll have a top defense again, I would pump the brakes. Team defensive performance is harder to maintain year by year due to more variables that are harder to control on that side of the ball. It’s just as likely the Jets fall out of the top 10 on defense as it is they stay in. From a personnel perspective, they have stars like CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams, plus one of the deepest edge rushing groups in the league and solid coaching under Saleh. However, there’s not a rock-solid double-digit sack producer outside of Williams. Their depth at defensive tackle took a big hit this offseason as well, and they didn’t do a lot to address their weakness at safety. 

It’d be a surprise if the Jets were bad on defense but it does feel like they’re unprepared for potential regression on that side of the ball. And if the defense is top-15 instead of top-five, that reduces the margin for error for the offense as they figure things out. The other factor is how tough the competition in the AFC is, as nine of the top 12 teams we’ve listed so far are AFC teams. We pointed out last week the Jets’ early-season schedule is unforgiving, and they could be heading into their bye in Week 7 at 3-3 or even 2-4, which will not play well in New York. At that point, things could start to feel awfully familiar to last season for guys like Hackett, Saleh and Rodgers. 

Next Step Candidates

Young teams who exceeded expectations last year and are looking to build momentum in 2023

13 – Seahawks

No team surprised more than the Seahawks in 2022, as pretty much everyone wrote last year off as a rebuilding season for Seattle in the wake of trading Wilson. Fortunately, QB Geno Smith and the team didn’t write back, to borrow his words.

Smith played like a top-ten quarterback and the Seahawks got a ton of production from their 2022 draft class and other young players. They didn’t have the talent, particularly on defense, to compete with the top dogs in the NFC, but they still made the playoffs in what was supposed to be a reset year. 

This offseason became about building on those gains and putting the roster in position to take a step forward. They re-signed Smith to an exceptionally team-friendly deal, then focused on adding talent. They signed DT Dre’Mont Jones in free agency and brought back DT Jarran Reed and LB Bobby Wagner to shore up a leaky front seven. In the draft, they added first-round CB Devon Witherspoon to a secondary that was already filled with young talent to try and supercharge a strength, then doubled back to the offense with first-round WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and second-round RB Zach Charbonnet. 

As far as improvements go, that’s not bad. But Seattle’s real ceiling in 2023 is going to be determined by how their young players develop, with a long list that includes CB Tariq Woolen, RB Kenneth Walker, LT Charles Cross, RT Abraham Lucas, OLB Darrell Taylor, OLB Boye Mafe and G Damien Lewis. It’s taken for granted that young players will continue to improve when development often isn’t linear. Still, as long as most of those players maintain or exceed their 2022 production, the Seahawks will be in great shape to challenge for the NFC West title and a spot at the top of the NFC. 

14 – Lions

By earning a spot in the NFL’s kickoff game against the Chiefs, the Lions are officially relevant again, continuing their journey from the plucky underdogs highlighted on Hard Knocks to hopeful contenders. There’s a vacuum of power in the NFC North following the exit of Rodgers, as the Packers have won the division eight times in the past 15 years with Rodgers under center. The Lions will deservedly be the preseason favorites to take that mantle. 

But sometimes it can fly under the radar that the Lions missed the playoffs last year, even if they ended the season on a high note by beating the Packers in a must-win game for Green Bay to finish 9-8. Detroit’s defense was historically bad for half the season and it held the team back even as they were turning in prolific performances on offense. The talent was lacking at certain spots, and that’s what the Lions have tried to rectify this offseason. 

Detroit revamped its secondary, signing CB Cameron Sutton, DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson and CB Emmanuel Moseley in addition to drafting second-round DB Brian Branch. They spent a first-round pick on LB Jack Campbell and are hoping some other young players on that side of the ball like DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, S Kerby Joseph, DE James Houston and DL Josh Paschal continue to develop. There was some question about DC Aaron Glenn’s job security at midseason last year but he should have better personnel at his disposal in 2023 to run his scheme. The results will speak for themselves. 

On offense, the Lions scored a major coup by retaining OC Ben Johnson despite significant head coaching interest. In fact, nearly everyone from an offense that was top five in both yards and points is coming back, including WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and an outstanding offensive line anchored by RT Penei Sewell. Starting QB Jared Goff has taken a lot of arrows, but he looked like the player who made the Pro Bowl and quarterbacked the Rams to a Super Bowl earlier in his career. Detroit largely turned down chances to add a younger or more dynamic player at the position this offseason, putting their faith in Goff for better or worse. 

The big change is at running back, where Detroit spent big in both money and draft capital to swap out D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit also spent a second-round pick on TE Sam LaPorta and added WR Marvin Jones and OL Graham Glasgow to fortify their depth. No one has the pure speed to make up for the loss of 2022 first-round WR Jameson Williams to a six-game gambling suspension, but Jones’ reliability and experience with Goff will come in handy. 

The challenge for the Lions will be adjusting now that they aren’t sneaking up on anyone anymore. The circumstances are unique in 2023 in that they’re almost entering the season as top dog when they haven’t actually backed that up on the field yet. But if HC Dan Campbell keeps them playing with the same edge and they get some development at a few key spots, the Lions could run away with the NFC North and be one of the top teams in the NFC. Then the Goff conversation comes up again depending on what happens. But that’s a topic for another day. 

Middle of the Pack

Playoffs are possible with some breaks but a variety of factors give these teams lower ceilings

15 – Broncos 

Last year was an unmitigated disaster for the Broncos. With the arrival of HC Sean Payton, there’s a little more cautious optimism around the team but Denver still faces an uphill battle to return to the playoffs. This is the 10th team in the AFC we’ve discussed already and only seven make the playoffs. The Broncos have to contend with the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West. If we assume the Chiefs, Bengals and Bills win their respective divisions (not a lock by any means), that means the Broncos are still competing with the Chargers, Dolphins, Jets, Ravens and Browns for one of the three wildcard slots. 

(As an aside, this shows how big of an advantage the Jaguars have in the AFC South with three other rebuilding squads this season. They can avoid this mess entirely by winning a weak division.)

Still, there’s reason to believe the Broncos can come out on the other side of the regular season still standing. It looks like Payton is building an offense that can go back to Wilson’s strengths when he was with Seattle, emphasizing a strong running game and play-action passing to attack the deep areas of the field. Even last year, Wilson was a strong deep passer, just not good enough to execute the high-volume dropback attack he envisioned for himself. If Payton gets Wilson back to pre-2022 levels, that should be good enough to compete for a wildcard berth. 

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos still have a fair amount of talent coming back from a defense that was No. 7 in yards in 2022, including S Justin Simmons, CB Patrick Surtain II and OLB Randy Gregory. Third-year OLB Baron Browning also looks like an ascending player and they signed DL Zach Allen in free agency. New DC Vance Joseph will run a much more aggressive system and there could be some growing pains there. But his ability to scheme up blitzes could also help mask a current lack of elite pass rushers. 

If the Broncos get a revived Wilson and a feisty defense, they’ll be in the mix. If Wilson can’t break out of his tailspin and the defense struggles with the transition to Joseph’s scheme, it might end up being another frustrating season in Denver. It’s also worth pointing out that almost regardless of what happens, big changes are likely coming to this squad in 2024. There are a lot of veterans who have sizable cap savings if cut and Payton isn’t shy about putting his fingerprints on a team. 

16 – Steelers 

Steelers HC Mike Tomlin owns one of the most impressive streaks in NFL history, having gone his entire 16-year coaching career in Pittsburgh without a single losing season. That streak looked like it was about to come to an end last season when the Steelers started the season 2-6 but they turned it around for a 7-2 finish to the season, largely on the back of good defense and some clutch playmaking from rookie QB Kenny Pickett. 

Given that 2022 was supposed to be a rebuilding/reset season, the floor for the Steelers under Tomlin seems to be pretty well defined at eight or nine wins at absolute worst. Now the question is what the ceiling is? 

Pittsburgh needs another step forward from Pickett. He put some more flashes together at the end of the season but he finished his rookie season with one of the worst touchdown percentages ever for a first-round quarterback. On 389 passing attempts, he tossed just seven touchdowns. The hope is the offensive line and skill positions can take another step forward and OC Matt Canada can finally implement his full offense, though the jury seems out on that.

On defense, the Steelers went after some upgrades in the secondary with CB Patrick Peterson and second-round CB Joey Porter Jr. to try and keep that side of the ball strong. They also completely overhauled the linebacking corps. The Steelers will try to win in 2023 with their classic formula of playing good defense, running the ball well and being tough and physical on both sides of the ball. Is that enough for a playoff berth in a conference loaded with outstanding quarterbacks, though? 

17 – Giants

In terms of major surprises in 2022, the Giants weren’t too far off the Seahawks. Both teams dramatically overperformed expectations and did it with quarterbacks the public had largely written off. Even the Giants had hedged their bets against QB Daniel Jones, declining his fifth-year option going into last season. But they got the best-case scenario with first-year HC Brian Daboll, who overcame a massive talent deficiency and an injury bug on offense to engineer a respectable middle-of-the-pack ranking, revive Jones’ career and make the playoffs in what was supposed to be the first year of a multi-year rebuild.

That makes forecasting the team’s outlook in 2022 tricky. Their record could make it seem like the team is further along than it is in actuality. If we flipped the team’s 5-3-1 record in one-score games — and history suggests those games really are a coinflip over time — the Giants would have been 7-9-1 last season. Still respectable and still better than a lot of people thought, but more in line with the middle of the pack. The gap between them and the top teams is also represented by an 0-5 record and -78 point differential versus the Eagles and Cowboys in 2022. 

The Giants tried to upgrade their personnel this offseason to close that gap. They traded for TE Darren Waller, who gives them a dynamic matchup-dictating weapon they didn’t have last year, as long as he can stay healthy. The depth in the receiving corps is upgraded and the Giants kept chipping away at the offensive line with the selection of second-round C John Michael Schmitz. But there’s no true No. 1 receiver and some spots on the line remain questionable. On defense, they spent big on LB Bobby Okereke and drafted first-round CB Deonte Banks. Yet depth at both positions remains an issue. 

Still, Daboll worked magic with less in 2022 on his way to a well-deserved Coach of the Year award, so it’s natural to think he could do even more with a better roster. New York should push for a wildcard spot in a weak NFC, even if it takes them another season to catch up to the Eagles and Cowboys at the top of the division. 

18 – Patriots

This is a big season for Patriots HC Bill Belichick and QB Mac Jones. New England is unlikely to ever bottom out completely while Belichick is coaching but since losing Tom Brady, the team has been remarkably irrelevant in the big picture of the conference. They haven’t won a playoff game and have finished with a losing record in two out of the three seasons. Belichick’s curious decision to trust Matt Patricia and Joe Judge with primary offensive coaching duties last season despite no prior experience by either predictably was a disaster. Worse, it was a major setback for Jones after a promising rookie season. 

Belichick brought back Bill O’Brien at play-caller for this season and the hope is he helps get Jones back on track. The team’s formula looks like it will be the same as it has been since Brady left; win behind strong defense, strong special teams, a punishing running game and a quarterback that can make good decisions, throw accurately and not turn the ball over. The challenge is executing that formula successfully in a loaded AFC. New England could be very good on defense and still not good enough to hold down the opposing offenses they’ll face enough for their own offense to outscore them. 

Even if Jones takes a step forward, it’s debatable that the Patriots have the weaponry they need to go toe-to-toe with the heavyweights in the AFC East, let alone the whole conference. They’re still going to be a hard team to beat every week but yet again it looks like the ceiling is limited, which might lead owner Robert Kraft to ask some hard questions at the end of the season. 

19 – Vikings

While the Vikings won 13 games last season, they had one of the best runs of good luck for any team in quite a while. Not only did they pull out a win against the Bills in a sequence that rivaled Buffalo’s infamous “13 seconds” loss in the playoffs to the Chiefs, the Vikings also officially completed the largest comeback in NFL history by overcoming a 33-point halftime deficit to beat the Colts. Minnesota went on a 9-0 streak in one-score games during the regular season before losing to the Giants in the first round of the playoffs. 

It was a fun season. However, it’s important to note that over time, one-score games (defined as a seven-point margin or less) tend to be 50-50 propositions because the outcome can be more easily impacted by luck. Teams that dramatically over or under-perform in close games in one season tend to drift back toward the mean in the next. That means the Vikings’ “true” record was probably closer to 9-8 than 13-4, and we should take that into account when projecting into 2023. 

The big change for the team this offseason is on defense with the hire of DC Brian Flores and the shift to his scheme, which is in a lot of ways polar opposite to what the Vikings were running in 2022. It’d be fair to expect some growing pains, particularly in the secondary, but Minnesota does have enough front-seven talent to have some really good weeks depending on the opponent. On offense, the bulk of the unit is back, with the exception of first-round WR Jordan Addison replacing veteran WR Adam Thielen and potentially the departure of veteran RB Dalvin Cook. They still have veteran QB Kirk Cousins, albeit in a contract year. 

Overall, this team looks very similar to the 2022 squad. The catch is the 2022 squad was closer to a middle-of-the-pack team than their record indicated. The Vikings absolutely could win the NFC North or steal a wildcard berth in the NFC, and if Flores turns the defense into a top-10 unit out of the gate, there’s upside for more. It feels wiser to temper expectations, however. 

Underdogs

If these teams make the playoffs, it will qualify as a surprise*

*someone has to win the NFC South

20 – Commanders

Washington is in a weird situation, as the team has enough talent on the roster to at least compete for a wildcard berth. The star power includes WR Terry McLaurin, DT Jonathan Allen, DT Daron Payne, DE Montez Sweat and perhaps a resurgent DE Chase Young. New OC Eric Bieniemy has plenty to work with as he strikes out on his own from Kansas City. There’s a big fat question mark at quarterback, however, and with new ownership coming in, it could be enough to get HC Ron Rivera fired at the end of the season if the team doesn’t finally break through. 

That’s what makes the decision to roll with 2022 fifth-round QB Sam Howell curious, as he just has one start to his name and is almost a completely unknown quantity. Most coaches in Rivera’s situation wouldn’t trust their future on that much of a gamble, but the team has been burned on their other big swings in recent seasons and Howell has the benefit of being dirt cheap. 

If Howell isn’t ready, Washington does have veteran QB Jacoby Brissett waiting in the wings, and he had an efficient season for the Browns last year. Cleveland still was just 4-7 with him under center, and Brissett’s last year as a full-time starter was in 2019 with the Colts when that team went 7-8. So if there’s any upside with this team, it would seem to be from Howell being far better than anyone expects. I’d be betting against that. 

21 – Saints

Injuries and inconsistency, particularly at the quarterback position, were major contributing factors to the Saints slipping to a 7-10 record in HC Dennis Allen’s first season replacing Payton. The final ranking at the end of the year looks nice on defense but the team forced only 14 turnovers, which wasn’t nearly enough to compensate for the 25 times the offense gave the ball away. New Orleans also finished 22nd in percentage of drives allowing an opponent to score. 

Some teams opted to go cheap at quarterback this season but the Saints went after veteran QB Derek Carr to try and solve the position. Carr has been productive in the past but at this point, he’s firmly in the middle tier of quarterbacks. The Saints think the team around him is good enough to be a playoff squad with competent quarterback play though — and it’s fair to say they have an excellent shot of winning the NFC South. 

There are a lot of issues with this team, though. Outside of RT Ryan Ramczyk and C Erik McCoy, there are big questions about the offensive line. The depth isn’t good either. Chris Olave was an instant star as a rookie but after him the Saints desperately need WR Michael Thomas to stay healthy for the first time in three seasons, otherwise the weapons for Carr could thin out quickly. There’s also a potential suspension looming for RB Alvin Kamara, which would remove another dynamic receiving weapon from the equation for a chunk of the season. 

The defense is getting old. Stalwarts like DE Cameron Jordan, LB Demario Davis and S Tyrann Mathieu are all on the other side of 30, and well past it in Jordan and Davis’ case. New Orleans had to completely remake their defensive tackle group this offseason, and they need another pass rusher to step up across from Jordan. On a positive note, the secondary overall seems to be in good hands with one elite option in CB Marshon Lattimore and a lot of other promising young players. 

The competition in the NFC South looks manageable but a lot of the Saints’ outlook in 2023 will depend on how quickly Carr adjusts to his new surroundings. In the past, it’s taken him time to find his footing when there’s been a lot of change around him. The Saints will probably be the preseason NFC South favorites for a lot of people but there’s some disaster potential lurking that could lead to some really interesting decisions in 2024. 

22 – Packers

NFL teams are reluctant to embrace the word “rebuilding” but it’s pretty clear 2023 is going to be a rebuilding year for the Packers. It doesn’t mean they’re going to tank but internally they absolutely don’t expect to be competing for a Super Bowl like they have been for the past few seasons. They’re getting their books right and evaluating QB Jordan Love as a starter, along with a plethora of other young players they hope can be contributors. 

Obviously Love is the biggest story surrounding the team as he gets his chance to be the guy after three seasons on the bench. How he plays will determine both Green Bay’s outlook for 2023 and Love’s standing for the future. Although the Packers extended him this offseason instead of picking up his fifth-year option, it does not make them liable for anything other than high-end backup money in 2024 should Love falter. If he has a good season and Green Bay makes the playoffs, he’ll be back, and potentially will be negotiating a contract extension. If not, the Packers will be looking for alternatives next offseason. 

The Packers are also breaking in young players at wide receiver, along the offensive line and in the front seven. The goal is to come out of this season with several long-term contributors and a shortened list of needs to get back to competing in 2024. It’s not out of the question they mess around and win the NFC North if none of the other teams take a step forward, as the roster isn’t in awful shape. It doesn’t seem as likely, though. 

23 – Rams 

Name three players on the Rams’ defense right now besides DT Aaron Donald. 

That little exercise will quickly illustrate why the general public is so low on Los Angeles this season after they spent the offseason shedding a bunch of salaries. This is a reset year after going all-in and winning a Super Bowl with their method. However, the Rams aren’t rolling over completely either. They kept QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp and DT Aaron Donald, and HC Sean McVay surely didn’t turn down a TV gig to come back and tank. As long as all four of those men are either healthy or locked in, I have a hard time counting this Rams team out too much. Their competition for one of the final wildcard spots in the NFC isn’t exactly daunting. 

Now, lose Stafford, Kupp or Donald to injury again, and this team could enter the race for the No. 1 pick. The Rams still don’t have a big margin for error. They’re betting on their coaching staff big-time, especially DC Raheem Morris who is getting a Chopped basket of dumpster scraps and being told to put together something edible. If he does, there’s absolutely no way teams can pass him up for a head coaching job again. 

24 – Falcons 

It would be fair to give Falcons HC Arthur Smith a bit of a pass for his first two seasons, or at least an acknowledgment that back-to-back 7-10 records as the team was working out of legit cap hell is solid work. He and GM Terry Fontenot took on a tough rebuilding job. But it’s Year 3 for the duo and it’s time to start winning. Their offseason reflected that expectation. 

With money to spend for the first time in years, the Falcons were one of the league’s most active teams in free agency. They dedicated a lot of cash to the defensive side of the ball, acquiring six new starters in free agency and trading for CB Jeff Okudah from the Lions. The new additions include DL Calais Campbell, S Jessie Bates, DT David Onyemata and DE Bud Dupree. On offense, they traded for TE Jonnu Smith, extended RT Kaleb McGary and RG Chris Lindstrom, and spent the No. 8 pick in the draft on RB Bijan Robinson. 

What they didn’t do was address the quarterback position, outside of signing veteran QB Taylor Heinicke to a decently-sized backup deal. They’re handing the keys to 2022 third-round QB Desmond Ridder, another young, largely unproven quarterback who’s going to get a shot to prove themselves in 2023. If the Falcons wanted to, they had some other high-profile options they could have pursued. But they’re sticking with Ridder, for better or worse. 

That adds a high degree of volatility to the Falcons’ 2023 outlook. The defense, helmed by new DC Ryan Nielsen, should be a lot better after being one of the league’s worst units over the past few years. How much better though? Top 15? Top 10? How good does it need to be to support a Ridder-led offense? Smith had some success last season engineering a creative Falcons offense that did a decent job moving the ball, primarily via an innovative rushing game. And when he was with the Titans, he built the offense around a dynamic talent at running back, not the quarterback. Between Robinson, TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London and a few others, the team isn’t devoid of skill position talent. 

It’s a quarterback-driven league, though. Some teams can get away with de-emphasizing the position for a little while, but sooner or later the NFL exposes them. Much as the Falcons might try to hide it, if they’re going to be successful in 2023 it largely depends on Ridder. 

25 – Panthers

Although I have the Panthers bringing up the rear of this tier, I think there’s actually some sneaky upside for Carolina, particularly in the NFC South. Quarterback play and coaching are two of the variables most key to success in the NFL. Panthers first-round QB Bryce Young obviously was talented enough for the team to give up a haul for the No. 1 pick and the rights to draft him. And new HC Frank Reich is the most proven coach in the division, with two double-digit win seasons under his belt. 

Now, obviously Young is a rookie and Reich was fired by the Colts and is in his first year in Carolina. So it’d be unfair to expect them to hit the ground running. There’s a lot of potential if Young is as good as the team thinks, though. The Panthers have the benefit of an ascending offensive line to protect Young and hopefully make his life easier. There’s also quite a bit of talent for new DC Ejiro Evero to work with on defense, including DE Brian Burns, CB Jaycee Horn, DT Derrick Brown, S Jeremy Chinn and LB Shaq Thompson. 

Young’s receiving corps will be in a bit of flux. The team signed WR Adam Thielen, TE Hayden Hurst, WR DJ Chark and RB Miles Sanders to augment the skill positions, then drafted WR Jonathan Mingo in the early second round. That’s better than what the Bears gave their quarterback last season but it’s not an elite group either. There are going to be some bumps as the Panthers figure out a winning formula on offense, but it’s also not far-fetched to think they could be hosting a playoff game in January, even if they finish in the range of seven to nine wins. 

Bottom of the Barrel

The top contenders for a top-10 draft pick — and the teams to watch for potential tanking

26 – Bears

There’s a case to be made that the Bears belong in the next tier up after all of the moves made to improve the team this offseason. There’s no disputing the team got better, moving down from the No. 1 pick for a haul of draft picks and WR D.J. Moore, then signed LB Tremaine Edmunds, G Nate Davis, LB T.J. Edwards, DE DeMarcus Walker and DE Rasheem Green in free agency. In the draft, the Bears took RT Darnell Wright, DTs Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens, and CB Tyrique Stevenson. That’s a lot of reinforcements. 

But considering the starting point was a three-win team that absolutely earned the No. 1 pick, a dose of perspective is needed. The team still has a huge weakness at edge rusher and doesn’t have anyone that can be confidently projected for more than a handful of sacks. The offensive line remains a work in progress despite the additions this offseason. Cornerback could be fine if the young players at the position are ready to go but it’d be fair to expect growing pains. 

Still, if QB Justin Fields takes a huge leap forward as a passer like we’ve seen from some other players in recent years, that changes everything. If Fields asserts himself as a potential top-ten quarterback, the Bears are capable of competing for a wildcard spot and even the NFC North. That’s a lot more upside than most other teams in this tier. 

27 – Texans

ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime, the Texans beat reporter, has been beating the drum that Houston is being dramatically underrated this offseason. Considering Vegas has the Texans with the second-best odds to come away with the No. 1 overall pick, I agree with Bien-Aime. I still expect their pick to fall inside the top 10 but there are a lot more reasons to be optimistic about the Texans than there have been for the past few years. 

To start with, this team has the potential to have two clearly defined strengths, position groups that stack up well across the context of the whole NFL. The Texans’ secondary was already a stingy unit last season and should be better in 2023 with more experience for CB Derek Stingley and S Jalen Pitre and the addition of veteran S Jimmie Ward. The offensive line also has a chance to be really good, with bookend tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard plus 2022 first-round G Kenyon Green and veteran G Shaq Mason. Rookie center Juice Scruggs is a question mark but the team spent a second-round pick on him and he’ll be sandwiched in the middle, so the team hopefully will be able to minimize any growing pains. 

And of course, there are Houston’s top two picks, the No. 2 and No. 3 overall selections, QB C.J. Stroud and DE Will Anderson. The hope is both give the Texans much-needed upgrades at two of the most important positions in the game. I wouldn’t call the Texans’ defensive line a strength yet but it is starting to come along. Anderson joins a group that includes DE Jonathan Greenard, DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Maliek Collins and DE Jerry Hughes. That’s at least respectable. 

Rookie quarterbacks usually aren’t good right out of the gate, the Texans are breaking in a new coaching staff and new schemes on both sides of the ball, and the skill positions still need a lot of work. So the Texans will still probably have more losses than wins. But six wins given how easy the Texans’ schedule is seems like a reasonable aspiration. 

28 – Colts

The biggest question for the Colts entering this season is when the team will turn things over to first-round QB Anthony Richardson, who was viewed as needing more developmental work than a lot of the other prospects in this class. Indianapolis has QB Gardner Minshew who has started games each of the past two seasons in new HC Shane Steichen’s offense, so if Richardson isn’t ready, Minshew can hold it down. 

However, while a lot of people view Richardson as raw, there’s a school of thought (which I subscribe to) that he’s not so much raw as inexperienced. The distinction is important. Raw means Richardson would benefit more from time on the bench to hone parts of his game that NFL defenses will expose. Inexperienced means he needs lessons that only live reps can teach him. I suspect Richardson is going to be starting sooner rather than later, and we could see brilliant highs and low lows from week to week, even series to series. 

As for the rest of the team, I don’t think the Colts’ roster is as bad as their 4-12-1 record in 2022 would indicate. Had owner Jim Irsay not meddled so much, I think they would have scratched out a few more wins based on Reich’s history with the team. The offensive line underperformed but there are players there who have played at a high level in the past and could get back to that. The skill positions aren’t totally barren with RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman Jr. On defense, getting back LB Shaquille Leonard at full health would be huge, and they have a top-shelf pass rusher in DT DeForest Buckner. If Richardson can play, the Colts might not be down long. 

29 – Titans

What’s saving the Titans from being lower is HC Mike Vrabel has a pretty strong record as a coach. Last season was his first losing season in five years in charge in Tennessee. With good coaching, it’s tough for the bottom to truly fall out for a team, so I expect the Titans to outperform this ranking, even if only by a little. 

Still, the roster is what it is. Tennessee had to revamp essentially their entire starting five on the offensive line and that looks like it will be a multi-year fix. They still have QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry, but if the offensive line is going to be a weakness, that’s going to impact their ability to run the offense through Henry. He’s also getting old for a running back, too. There’s very little skill position talent, unless young players like WR Treylon Burks and TE Chigoziem Okonkwo take major steps forward. 

On defense, the Titans remain strong up front with DTs Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry. They’ll get OLB Harold Landry back, though it might take time for him to get his legs back underneath him coming off a torn ACL, and they signed OLB Arden Key to help out across from him. The secondary is in major flux, however, and it will only get worse if they end up trading S Kevin Byard. They have some interesting, young players at corner, but not a lot of proven production. 

30 – Buccaneers

The Bucs don’t have a lot of believers outside of Tampa Bay. Most of the power rankings I’ve seen have them down around this range, while the local commentators are more optimistic. The argument goes this team has too much talent to be picking in the top two or three picks, and while the Buccaneers may not be Super Bowl contenders anymore, they won’t be as woeful as people think. 

I do buy that to some degree. The list of proven, quality players for the Buccaneers is longer than it is for a few of the teams above them, including OT Tristan Wirfs, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, C Ryan Jensen, DT Vita Vea, S Antoine Winfield Jr., CB Carlton Davis, CB Jamel Dean and LB Lavonte David. You could make a case for OLB Shaquil Barrett and LB Devin White too, although the former is coming off a torn Achilles and the latter has been more hype than substance for a couple of seasons now. 

But there are a few critical areas where it’s hard to see Tampa Bay measuring up. If Barrett is limited, the pass rush might only be average. Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles is great at drawing up pressure packages to compensate for that, but blitzing is a two-edged sword. Speaking of coaching, we’ve seen Bowles as a head coach for five seasons and two different teams and he has a record of 32-49. The 2022 Bucs had issues but there’s still no way they should have been 8-9. 

Perhaps new OC Dave Canales breathes life back into the offense and is a substantial upgrade over former OC Byron Leftwich, but Canales has to deal with the final major hurdle the Buccaneers face — quarterback. The starter this year will be the winner of a competition between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. Mayfield will be on his fourth team in the past calendar year. Trask couldn’t beat out Blaine Gabbert for the primary backup job the past two years. Obviously the Seahawks (Canales’ former team incidentally) proved anything’s possible but there’s a reason everyone was so skeptical last year. Most of the time when teams take this path at quarterback, it doesn’t end well. 

31 – Raiders

It stood out to me last year how quickly the Raiders pivoted away from their aggressive offseason where they tried to keep pace in the AFC West arms race. It was barely October when people around the team started picking up the talking point that “this was always a multi-year rebuild.” If so, we’ll take the Raiders at their own word and assume they’re another year at least from being competitive. 

That’s pretty easy to do because despite all the changes the team made this offseason, it’s hard to say the Raiders got appreciably better. Swapping in QB Jimmy Garoppolo for Carr might be a slight upgrade because Garoppolo is familiar with the system. But in terms of where both rank in the pantheon of NFL quarterbacks, the difference is probably negligible. And Garoppolo has to actually be on the field to be an upgrade. He’s battled injuries in recent seasons and his surprise foot surgery that we learned about this week continues a worrying trend. 

Waller was traded and former Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers signed, giving HC Josh McDaniels three receivers who are all best out of the slot along with Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow. Adams at least isn’t limited to just the slot, and it’ll be interesting to see if Renfrow is long for Las Vegas. Adams is harder to trade but he would fetch more, and it doesn’t sound like he’d hate landing with a different team. 

The Raiders made almost no moves of significance along the offensive line, which is interesting. The unit didn’t sink the team as much as some feared in 2022 but it wasn’t a strength by any means and doubling down on it is an interesting tactic. On defense, the Raiders added LB Robert Spillane, CB Duke Shelley, S Marcus Epps and CB David Long as new starters. They drafted first-round OLB Tyree Wilson, third-round DT Byron Young and fourth-round CB Jakorian Bennett. Wilson could be a high-impact player in the future. As for the rest, it remains to be seen if the Raiders got quality with their quantity approach. 

Lastly, for all the talk about how McDaniels had learned loads from his disastrous first stint as a head coach, there continue to be uncanny parallels. He keeps shipping out players for “his guys.” There are complaints about long hours and not working smarter from coaches and players. And the losses keep piling up. People get the opportunity to rewrite the narrative about themselves every year in the NFL but the book on McDaniels is what it is at this point. 

Woeful For [Caleb] Williams

32 – Cardinals

Arizona is the heavy favorite to come away from next season with the No. 1 pick and the rights to star USC QB Caleb Williams, and for good reason. Arizona kicked off what will probably be a multi-year rebuild this offseason. The roster is littered with holes, most notably the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball and the secondary. New HC Jonathan Gannon intentionally went quite young with his staff, and while that could pay off in some ways, it means there will be learning curves and growing pains to get through in 2023 as the new systems are implemented. 

And of course, the team will be without star QB Kyler Murray for an indeterminate amount of time as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered late last season. Murray didn’t have surgery until sometime between Christmas and New Year’s, so if we go off the average nine to 12-month recovery for ACLs, that puts him back anywhere from Week 1 to out the majority of the season. Because Murray’s game is so reliant on his athleticism and his legs, expect both him and the team to tread cautiously, which could extend the timeline toward the long side of that range. 

Murray alone wouldn’t be enough to lift this team into competitiveness, but without him it’s hard to find many wins on the schedule. There’s a long road still to No. 1 and you can bet other teams will emerge in the race to the bottom as the season goes on. The prize — long-term stability at the game’s most important position — is too great to ignore. 

This Week In Football

UPDATE: The Cardinals opted to release DeAndre Hopkins Friday after they were unable to find a trade partner. 

• Often as the NFL heads off into the summer, there are a few lingering situations that provide some intrigue between the end of the draft and the start of training camp. There aren’t nearly as many of those this year but it is still worth watching what happens between the Cardinals and WR DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona hasn’t been able to trade Hopkins despite giving him and his agent permission to talk to other teams. The draft didn’t provide enough impetus to get something done. Between Arizona’s asking price and the $19.45 million Hopkins is due in 2023, the cost has been far too expensive, even if Hopkins can still play.
• So that leaves the two sides in a fascinating position. Hopkins ideally would want to be on a better team but he’s been unwilling to surrender too much money to do that so far. He hasn’t ruled out the idea of playing in Arizona this season but he’s not at voluntary OTAs right now. The Cardinals would love to shed his salary and pick up a draft pick but there are only a handful of teams who could even afford to trade for Hopkins right now. Arizona can hold onto him hoping an injury makes another team desperate for help but it’s looking more and more like their best option to salvage the situation will be cutting Hopkins outright. 
• While things with Hopkins look like they will drag deep into the summer, the Chargers and veteran RB Austin Ekeler were able to reach a resolution to his standing trade request. The heart of the dispute was money, as Ekeler rightfully believes he’s underpaid and the Chargers understandably were hesitant about committing major money to a 28-year-old running back. So the team added an additional $1.75 million in incentives to his deal to bring his total compensation to $8 million, although he basically has to replicate his insane numbers from the past two years and would still be underpaid if he does. It’s not much, but given Ekeler was under contract and couldn’t really hold out, it’s more than the team had to do. Getting him on board and locked in is important for a team with big goals in 2023. 
• Back in March when the Raiders signed veteran QB Jimmy Garoppolo, there was a weird delay with his introductory press conference. He was at the team facility to sign his deal and reporters were in the building waiting, only to be told everything was being pushed back to the following day. The deal didn’t fall apart like we’ve seen for some other deals in the past but it does turn out there was an issue with Garoppolo’s physical that led to him having surgery on the foot he broke last season. Instead of participating in OTAs with his new teammates, Garoppolo is rehabbing an injury until training camp for the second consecutive year. The Raiders aren’t outwardly projecting any concern, and realistically if Garoppolo is back by camp, the damage would be minimal if any. But it does highlight the biggest reason the 49ers were willing to move on and that’s Garoppolo’s extensive injury history. It’s another in a long list of reasons to be concerned about the Raiders in 2023. 
• If Las Vegas ends up needing help at quarterback, they’ll have some options later this summer. Texans QB Davis Mills would be an interesting player to keep an eye on, even if for now the Texans say they’re not interested in trading him. He’s still taking first-team reps in OTAs but with No. 2 overall QB C.J. Stroud and veteran Case Keenum also on the roster, it does not seem like Mills has much of a future in Houston. He didn’t do enough over the past two seasons to prevent the Texans from upgrading but Mills did show potential as a possible high-end backup, which still has a fair amount of value to NFL teams. Something like a fifth-round pick could be enough to get the Texans to part with him during the preseason. 
• The Broncos surprised a lot of people by cutting veteran K Brandon McManus during the middle of the week, ending his nine-year tenure with the team. The move seemed salary-related, as Denver used a June 1 designation to save $3.75 million. It probably didn’t help that McManus had one of his worst seasons with just 77.8 percent accuracy on field goals, but he also attempted 13 of greater than 50 yards. He did not have to wait long, catching on with the Jaguars and pushing out K Riley Patterson, who had a respectable 2023 season himself. Life’s tough for an NFL kicker sometimes. Fortunately Patterson landed on his feet after the Lions traded a conditional 2026 seventh (near the lowest possible draft compensation that could be traded) for Patterson before Jacksonville officially cut him. 

Thank You

This will be the final issue of NFLTR Review, at least for the foreseeable future. 

If you’ve been a regular reader over the past few years — and our numbers show there do seem to be at least a few of you — I want to take a moment to say thank you. When I pitched the idea of a weekly column in 2020, I had no idea what kind of reception it would receive. It’s obviously quite a bit different from most of the content on the website and I didn’t know how many people would be willing to take precious time out of their day to read what I had to say. 

It’s safe to say I’ve been blown away to be able to keep this going for almost three years and 142 issues. It’s been a major part of my life and I’m grateful to have been just a small part of your weekend. 

While we won’t publish on Friday anymore, we’re not going away completely. Our goal is to keep doing some of the best stuff we did in this space on a more regular publishing schedule, while continuing to add more analysis and insight that serves you, the reader. 

So stay tuned. And thanks again for reading.