NFLTR Review: Where Will Sean Payton Be In 2023?

By
Logan Ulrich
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The rumor mill has kicked into gear as Sean Payton eyes his options for a 2023 return. In this issue:

  • Why Payton’s options might be more limited than they first appear
  • A potentially perfect fit no one is talking about yet
  • Why a return to FOX is more likely than a return to the Saints

The Big Picture: Sean Payton’s Options In 2023

Last year, former Saints HC Sean Payton sent shockwaves through the NFL when he announced his intention to step away from coaching and leave New Orleans. Payton has a strong case for best coach in the NFL outside of Patriots HC Bill Belichick. He took one of the worst franchises in the league and turned it into a Super Bowl winner and perennial top offense with the help of QB Drew Brees. His loss was huge, as you can see from the Saints’ record this past season. 

At the time, Payton said he was stepping away for a combination of reasons. He felt burned out after years of the grueling lifestyle NFL coaches lead. There were various health challenges from that. And he had an opportunity to do something new as a media analyst at FOX, which he said sounded like an invigorating challenge. It probably didn’t hurt that media compensation has become competitive with even high-end NFL salaries. 

However, even in his retirement announcement Payton left the door open to a return to coaching in as soon as a year. It was pretty much understood and confirmed by the Saints beat reporters that it would be elsewhere, as it wouldn’t have been fair to current HC Dennis Allen to have that hanging over his head after he was promoted from defensive coordinator. 

(What was not elaborated on was how much of Payton’s motivations were tied to finding a fresh start away from the messy Saints’ salary and quarterback situations he had a hand in creating…)

Now as the coaching cycle nears, the news about Payton is kicking into gear. He’s reportedly already assembling a staff, headlined by former Broncos HC Vic Fangio who’s one of the most highly-regarded defensive minds in the league. Payton is compelling on his own, but add in Fangio and you have the seeds of an Avengers-style coaching staff. It seems like if Payton has his way, he’ll be back in the NFL in 2023. 

The catch is that Payton wants to be picky about his next landing spot. I’ll let him tell you in his own words about the qualities he’ll be looking for:

“It would be the comfort level with ownership and the front office, with the leadership structure, with likeminded thinking. Are more of those opportunities out there? I don’t think many. I think there are a lot of dysfunctional teams in our league. There are some places where talent can die. I just want to avoid those places.

“I want to become part of another program to help win, but I think there will be some places where maybe that won’t be the case. Who knows? It’s really more about finding the right people. I came here in 2006 right after (Hurricane) Katrina. There was nothing. They were 3-13. The facility, the record, the roster, none of that was appealing. But Mickey Loomis was appealing.”

Any organization is only as good as the person at the top, and that’s a fact of NFL life Payton is well aware of. That’s why it’s essential for him to find a well-run organization with ownership that has proven it can support and not undermine its football operations. Having either an established quarterback or the resources to go get a young guy Payton believes in will also be important to avoid a repeat of the situation he just left behind with the Saints. 

If that sounds like a lot, it is. Payton has acknowledged teams that fit his criteria don’t often have coaching vacancies. He’s never come out and said anything publicly but there’s a reason he’s been linked to the Cowboys for years and years. Last year the Dolphins made a serious run at acquiring him and paid the price for failing, and the Chargers are another team that has come up consistently as a team Payton would love to coach. 

Miami moved on to HC Mike McDaniel who has had a strong first season and has the Dolphins on the verge of qualifying for a playoff berth. Add in the tampering issues and the Dolphins probably aren’t an option for Payton. Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy entered this season on the hot seat but Dallas clinched a playoff berth with a few weeks to go in the regular season. The Chargers were 5-5 at one point and the temperature around HC Brandon Staley was rising but Los Angeles also just clinched a playoff berth with Monday night’s win. 

That doesn’t make McCarthy and Staley completely fireproof but it does leave them pretty well insulated. There have been only a few times when an NFL team has fired its head coach following a playoff season. Tampa Bay fired Tony Dungy in 2001 after three straight years in the playoffs, but only one win. The Chargers fired legendary HC Marty Schottenheimer after a 14-2 season that infamously ended in an upset by the Patriots in the divisional round. And the Titans fired HC Mike Mularkey in 2017 after back-to-back 9-7 seasons after he was promoted from interim head coach in 2015. 

The common denominator here is coaches who were fired because teams thought they had hit their ceiling. That probably doesn’t apply to Staley who’s still building his reputation as a coach. It could with McCarthy if the Cowboys flop in the postseason in ugly fashion like they did last year. It would have to be an epic meltdown to burn away all the goodwill McCarthy has accrued this season, however. 

That leaves Payton’s 2023 coaching hopes in a sticky situation, because the remaining potential landing spots have some serious warts. 

2023 NFL Head Coaching Cycle

Currently there are three teams who have already fired their coaches and will have vacancies to fill through the interview process this coaching cycle. There are another two teams who are viewed as strong possibilities to fire their current coach. And it seems each year there’s an unexpected opening or two. We’ll look at some candidates there. 

Payton is the top candidate on the market, so he’ll be at the top of the list for any team with a vacancy this season. However, he’s still under contract with the Saints, which means the team that hires him will likely have to surrender draft picks. That will be more realistic for some teams than others. 

Current Vacancies

  • Carolina Panthers
  • Denver Broncos
  • Indianapolis Colts

Carolina would love to hire an experienced offensive coach to help turn around a side of the ball that’s held them back since the end of the Cam Newton era. Back in the summer, there were some reports about Panthers owner Dave Tepper planning a run at Payton if things didn’t work out with former HC Matt Rhule — which in hindsight was a giveaway about how 2022 was going to go. 

But there are a host of reasons why Payton won’t ever come to Charlotte unless it’s as the visiting coach. We can start with the fact that the Panthers and Saints are in the same division and New Orleans will want to keep Payton off their schedule as much as possible. Secondly, Carolina just isn’t that appealing when we apply Payton’s criteria. Their quarterback situation is poor and it’s not clear if they’ll have a high enough pick to assure themselves of landing a potential franchise starter. 

And while Tepper doesn’t have the poorest reputation among all NFL owners, he talked a big game when he entered the league five years ago. Since then, he’s failed to accomplish any of the lofty goals he set out in his vision for the franchise. The mark of his impatience can be seen in some of the personnel decisions the team has made, and the not-even-half-finished training metropolis in Rock Hill that Tepper abandoned in bankruptcy court speaks for itself as a representation of the Tepper era, along with Carolina’s win-loss record. 

The Broncos are also under new ownership, and like Tepper they enter the NFL with deep pockets and a reputation as titans of business. Success in other fields guarantees nothing in the NFL, however, as Tepper has discovered. Ownership might not necessarily be a negative for Payton when he thinks about the Broncos but it’s hard to call it a positive either. It’s just an unknown. 

The quarterback is the far bigger concern for the Broncos and any prospective head coaches, not just Payton. Russell Wilson just had the worst season of his career by far in a year where he was supposed to be unleashed with a coach who was finally going to partner with him and design an offense specifically around his talents. Denver has no choice but to try and get better production out of Wilson since they’ve tied themselves to him contractually for another year or so. Payton will have to decide if Wilson can be salvaged or if this is the cliff hitting him at the age of 34. Maybe he’s a fan of Wilson’s game but it’s still a risk. 

While the Colts also have questions at quarterback, they are currently on track for a potential top-five pick which would give the next coach a shot at drafting a long-term solution to get Indianapolis off the hamster wheel of veteran retread quarterbacks. That could be enough to answer the quarterback question for Payton. 

Questions about ownership will be harder to square. Colts owner Jim Irsay has a mixed reputation in league circles. Up until the past two seasons, he had done an admirable job of being hands-off with GM Chris Ballard and former HC Frank Reich, resisting some of his worse impulses. But as adversity has hit, Irsay has grabbed the wheel tighter. He ordered the trade of Carson Wentz without a replacement, the benching of Matt Ryan the first time for Sam Ehlinger, and firing Reich midseason and hiring Jeff Saturday despite a total lack of experience to serve as the interim coach. 

Perhaps Payton has the standing to keep Irsay at bay but a coach’s worst nightmare can be a meddlesome owner. Time after time, Irsay has shown himself unable to check his impulsive side. Does Payton want to sign on to a place where he’s going to have to put extra effort into managing up? 

Possible Vacancies

  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Houston Texans

There hasn’t been a firm indication out of Arizona what the status of HC Kliff Kingsbury will be for next season. It doesn’t look good, though. There was a report by ESPN a couple of weeks ago detailing some of the issues behind the scenes for the Cardinals and it’s safe to say there’s a lot of mutual frustration between Kingsbury and the team. Cardinals GM Steve Keim already appears to be out after taking an indefinite leave of absence due to health issues. The timing to clean house for the Cardinals seems to be now. The only question is if owner Michael Bidwill stays his hand to save money, as both men just signed extensions in January and Bidwill is infamously cheap. 

If this job does open up, it’ll be interesting because there’s actually been some reporting linking Payton with interest in Arizona. There are some appealing factors with the warm weather and the quarterback situation apparently solved with Kyler Murray. 

Dig deeper though and there are some major questions about the fit. We’ve already mentioned Bidwill is cheap, as he’s one of the few remaining owners who inherited their team through family connections and isn’t independently wealthy. That could potentially restrict parts of Payton’s vision, as with the Saints he had an owner who was willing to cut checks for all his aggressive personnel moves. Bidwill is patient and will give Payton a lot of latitude but Arizona is not thought of as one of the best-run organizations in the NFL. 

There are issues with Murray as well. The physical talent is elite, as Murray has blinding speed and before this year was an excellent deep ball thrower. It’s the other parts of his game that need rounding out. Payton could be better for Murray than Kingsbury, whose scheme has been criticized as simplistic and overly reliant on certain personnel. 

But there are injury and makeup questions with Murray. He’s been dinged up in each of his seasons, and that was before he tore his ACL earlier this month. His leadership, attitude and work ethic have all come under fire from various sources, including the infamous study clause in his monster extension this summer. 

There’s no denying the talent with Murray but sometimes those players can be coach-killers. Payton will have to decide if Murray is a trap or a big opportunity. The circumstances are different but there would be parallels to the decision he made years ago with Brees when he signed him coming off shoulder surgery. We know Payton isn’t afraid to take risks, so perhaps if Arizona is indeed his best option in the end, he’ll take the plunge. 

As for the Texans, they have a depleted roster and an owner who is widely viewed as one of the worst in football. There’s no way they’re a realistic candidate for Payton. 

Wildcards

  • New England Patriots
  • Los Angeles Rams
  • Seattle Seahawks

Neither Belichick nor Seahawks HC Pete Carroll is getting fired. But the two are among the oldest coaches in the NFL and can’t coach forever. There’s no serious buzz about this being the final season for either and there are good reasons for each to keep going. Belichick is chasing the NFL’s all-time wins record and is 20 wins away from tying Don Shula, 21 from beating him. Carroll’s got another plucky young squad that seems on the cusp of taking a big step next season, and it’d be a surprise if he walked away from that. 

Still, both are big-time organizations that could intrigue Payton. New England moreso than Seattle given how the ownership situation with the latter is up in the air. 

The real team to watch here is Los Angeles. Rams HC Sean McVay turned down a lot of money from Amazon to try and run it back for a Super Bowl in Los Angeles. Instead, it’s been a season from hell, with injuries decimating a team that was always really a house of cards. Maybe McVay can put it back together in 2023. He should have his key stars like QB Matthew Stafford, DT Aaron Donald and WR Cooper Kupp back and healthy. 

But the TV opportunities will still be there, and McVay has been pretty open about how burned out he feels coaching sometimes, and how at some point he will step away for a while. As long as Stafford, Donald, Kupp and CB Jalen Ramsey are in the fold, it might be hard for McVay to walk away. But if he does, the Rams would instantly become the best match for Payton. Quarterback? Check. Ownership and organizational structure? Check. Ties to the Los Angeles area? Check. 

There would still be some potential hurdles to clear. The Rams would have to work out trade compensation with New Orleans, which could mean dealing away a first-round pick yet again. Payton would have to make sure he and GM Les Snead were a good fit, and if not it could mean Los Angeles getting rid of Snead. The Rams’ roster needs work, too, even with the stars they have available. 

But if the Cowboys and Chargers jobs won’t be open, the Rams would be a better fit for Payton than any of the other potential vacancies we’ve discussed so far. 

Return To New Orleans?

One possibility that cropped up this week was the idea of Payton staying in New Orleans after all despite the one-year hiatus, with Buccaneers QB Tom Brady joining him as a free agent. Brady was the other half of the tampering equation in Miami as the Dolphins sought to pair up the two. And if Brees had retired before the 2020 season, the Saints would have been strong contenders to sign Brady when he was first a free agent. 

Brady or not, Payton does remain under contract with the Saints, so there is technically a door for him to come back. But it would mean firing Allen after just one season. Maybe there’s an argument to be made for that given New Orleans’ struggles this season and Allen’s issues in his first coaching stint, but it doesn’t appear to be a decision Saints leadership wants to make. 

More importantly, there’s a reason Payton stepped aside last year, and it wasn’t just to come back to the Saints, at least that’s not how it was portrayed at the time. Given there are Saints beat reporters who have said as much, I think we can rule out the Saints at this time. 

The Last Resort

As we’ve outlined, the teams Payton can be confident in having a coaching vacancy this offseason all have major concerns, while the teams Payton would love to coach all have long odds to have vacancies. If the Chargers, Rams and Cowboys all enter next season with the same coach, Payton’s best options will be beauty-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder-type situations in Arizona, Denver and Indianapolis. 

At that point, the question becomes whether Payton takes what he can or decides to wait. He could spend another year in his cushy TV studio job. There’s enough year-to-year attrition in the NFL that eventually a job he likes would open up. 

It’s just a question of how patient he wants to be. 

This Week In Football

  • The Broncos were mentioned above as one of the three teams that already have a coaching vacancy, as this week they went ahead and cut the cord on the Nathaniel Hackett era before he even got to the end of his first season. Things have been trending this way for some time with how poorly Denver’s season has gone but a new low was hit with the Christmas bludgeoning at the hands of the Rams, who also entered the game 4-10. The loss and the extra stuff — like Broncos players shoving each other on the sideline and getting in fights after the game — were just the final dose of proof that Hackett was in far over his head running an NFL team. 
  • It was a surprisingly big week for quarterback news, with the major headline out west in Las Vegas. The Raiders will shut down QB Derek Carr for the final two games as a precursor to moving on this offseason, either via trade or release if no deal materializes. The first season for Carr with new HC Josh McDaniels did not go as anyone planned, and the Raiders were far worse than a lot of people expected. Carr struggled with accuracy and turnovers, and it sounds like Raiders owner Mark Davis had finally had his fill of Carr, who isn’t an elite quarterback but has also been quite productive at times. In a vacuum, he’d be quite valuable. There are some extenuating factors with his contract that the Raiders will have to sort through but if they can pull off a trade, it could give them another asset to rebuild and try to gamble on finding an upgrade. Meanwhile, there are a number of teams thirsty for a reliable veteran quarterback who will be diving into film of Carr soon to see if he can solve their problems. 
  • Last week, Jets QB Zach Wilson seemed to kill what little hope was left for him as a potential long-term solution to New York’s quarterback woes in a dreadful game against the Jaguars. With Mike White healthy, Wilson will go back to the shelf, and it’s quite possible he could find himself on a new team at some point this offseason. One way or another, the Jets can’t go into next season with him as the starter. 
  • It was a bad week overall for AFC East quarterbacks, as Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was placed back in the concussion protocol after suffering what “officially” was his third concussion of the season. Unofficially, it’s at least three. The most important thing is obviously Tagovailoa’s health in the short and long term. There are football ramifications, though. Miami has a decision to make on Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option this May and he’s also eligible for a contract extension for the first time. While they’re to different degrees, either would represent serious levels of commitment to a player who has just had three serious brain injuries in a span of a few months. After looking so clear just a month ago, Tagovailoa’s future is murky yet again. 
  • After going 0-2-1 in their last three games, the Washington Commanders are turning back to QB Carson Wentz as their starter, as evidently the magic is starting to run out for QB Taylor Heinicke. Washington thought all along that Wentz offered more of a ceiling than Heinicke, which is why they traded for him this offseason, and that gamble still has a chance to pay off. Wentz has two games to get Washington into the postseason, facing the Browns and Cowboys. They control their own destiny, so win and they’re in. Lose, and Washington is probably back in the market for a new starter this offseason. It’s a chance for Wentz, but also one we’ve seen him squander in the past. 
  • It was a good week to be an offensive lineman. Within an hour of each other, Packers OL Elgton Jenkins and Browns RT Jack Conklin each signed four-year extensions. Jenkins signed for $68 million/$17 million a year, with significant incentives tied in part to how much he plays at left tackle for Green Bay. Considering Jenkins’ flexibility to play any position on the line at a high level, including left tackle, that’s a pretty solid rate for Green Bay. Conklins’ deal was for $60 million/$15 million a year, which is also pretty strong considering he was coming off a torn patellar tendon to start this season. 
  • Just a day after having a dominant performance on Monday Night Football, Cardinals DL J.J. Watt announced that this will be his final season and he plans to retire. He’s closing the book on a Hall of Fame career with potentially a little more still to give, as he has 9.5 sacks this year and counting. He was due to be a free agent this offseason and there could have been an opportunity to chase a ring somewhere. But not many guys get to choose when they walk away from the NFL. Watt will. And he leaves the game as one of the best defensive players of all time. If you’ve forgotten or didn’t know, go look at his stats from 2012 to 2015, and watch some highlights from those years. He was the definition of unblockable. When the time comes, Watt will be a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer. 

Nickels & Dimes

Quick-hit thoughts and observations from around the NFL…

I was open to the idea of McDaniels turning over a new leaf and learning from the fiasco that was his first head coaching job a decade ago with the Broncos. But once again, he’s trading away an established veteran quarterback early in his tenure…

We’ll get more into the situation with Carr and how it relates to what could be a fascinating 2023 quarterback carousel in the next couple of weeks. What I’m fascinated to see in the meantime is what this means for Raiders WR Davante Adams. There are some conflicting reports, but I believe the Raiders have an out in Adams’ deal, just like they had an out for Carr. Adams came to Las Vegas in large part because of Carr. If the Raiders don’t have a good replacement plan, will Adams leave along with Carr?

Hackett’s name is right up there with a ton of train wrecks. Which is a shame because by all accounts he seems to be a good guy. Just so overwhelmed…

Denver has a real challenging situation ahead of them. There were flashes of strong play from Wilson this year but they were few and far between. His age can’t be ignored as a factor, though I don’t think he looked as physically washed as some people thought. Finding coaches with a good plan to turn around Wilson will be important. But equally important will be getting Wilson on board. He has to approach this next season with humility, because we are a long way away from the “Let Russ Cook” days…

I couldn’t tell you what PFF’s WAR metric is because it’s proprietary and they’re not ready to share that info yet. So like all their other opaque measures, take it with a grain of salt. But this graph sure seems to pass the eye test at first, with some really interesting results like the Giants…

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